So you think the difference between IQ’s .578 TS% and a theoretical .550 TS% (presupposing the improvements from the midrange were a mirage as opposed to, well, improvements) accounts for his “entire perceived value?”

considering that’s driving his entire improvement from his prior years despite regression in other areas like assist rate .. usg and ftr…

yes…

and if you give him his ts from prior years… with last years secondary numbers… that would be his worst season… which yes he’s very much in danger of having the bottom drop out….

i mean look we’ve always looked at big midrange and floater improvements as highly volatile and candidates for regression…. for whatever reason this has gotten completely handwaved and totally ignored for IQ… it bears mentioning because people are going absolutely bonkers on what he deserves on an extension….

and we’ll see where it ends up… future isn’t written yet…. but people are pounding the under on the knicks wins total… and there’s two big regression candidates on the knicks and he’s one of them….

IQ has had the best +/- of any Knick playing over 1000 minutes in each of his three seasons.

Yep.

I also agree that it’s a noisy stat, but when you start looking at multiple years and lineup combos it seems way less noisy.

By way of comparison, take a look at RJ’s on/off.

Nothing is noisy enough to account for the difference between the two.

Tonight, Jalen Brunson will become the first #Knicks point guard to start on opening night in two consecutive seasons since Chris Duhon in 2008-09
https://twitter.com/TommyBeer/status/1717279037146505287

It’s hard to believe, isn’t it?

it takes 2 minutes…the difference is 20 shots and his ts would be .550… which is exactly in line with his career TS….

I’ll take your word for it.

So you think the difference between IQ’s .578 TS% and a theoretical .550 TS% (presupposing the improvements from the midrange were a mirage as opposed to, well, improvements) accounts for his “entire perceived value?”