i’ll tell you, BE got me thinking…for whatever reason what I’m mostly thinking of is Dan in Vermont…

at one point i remember looking up the town and noticing the most picture perfect bookstore you could imagine…

it had all these marvelous photos of the inside, and i would spend hours at my desk daydreaming about sitting in the bookstore and listening to dan play his music…maybe even getting up to shake my legs out and dance a bit…

also got me thinking about al…i’m low key addicted to listening to his stories, even the hospital stuff…

i vaguely remember one about his pops and an old car…it was amazing…

fuck z-man, when did we get so old?

i did not say that! that’s not a controversial opinion! that’s probably somewhere in the neighborhood of 5-30% chance in my estimates… that’s not that great! but my words have literally been quoted and people still think this… these discussions are like tiptoe’ing through landmines for whatever godforsaken reason….

zero excuse for this….

I would react the way everyone has reacted to this situation as long as this board has existed

Many posters have done exactly what djphan is doing. Ptmilo once seriously asked me to deposit $1k in an escrow account when I casually said “I bet the Raptors can draft someone who outperforms Fred Van Vleet if we sign him to a mega deal.”

i can only take so much kum-bah-yah stuff…I kind of like strife, it can be a way to move forward…

still though, i really like the way you phrased that sentiment of: I’m not sure exactly what – community?

I get it though…

Edit: definitely the shrooms talking, but: being right, is so last minute

I could easily flip this on you. If you regard Quentin Grimes playing under 500 minutes despite being mostly healthy as a reasonable possibility, why are you only offering absurdly long, “Brunson wins the dunk contest” esque odds on it?

so why don’t you offer up your own odds? i’m offering 250 to 1 as a proxy for no way.. i actually think 1000+ to 1 as more like no way.. and so 250 to 1 ishould be pretty easy money to you right?

i could give you 100 to 1… or even less.. but why is it up to me to keep going lower and lower when you could just clarify what that means to you? is this the price is right or something?

you said ‘i’d take the other bet’.. i take you up on YOUR offer… and you don’t.. what am i to think? what were you calling whatshisface cause he wouldn’t go on record about something stupid… how can you actually feel so confident about something not happening and think 250 to 1 is too risky?

and again… if that’s wrong… the right response should be to say what would be a fair bet for you…. not.. i’m not willing to bet at all you’re being stupid…. even tho you offered a bet first! do you also go around telling people you punched in the face to watch where theiy’re going too?

when you say my statement was so ridiculous that you’d take that bet… and then when challenged on it… don’t take that bet… how would you react if it was the other way?

I would react the way everyone has reacted to this situation as long as this board has existed–by reserving the right to poke a little fun at the other person if they turned out to be wrong. I have no expectation that another poster is willing to stake their financial wellbeing on their side of a disagreement with me.

it would be pretty reasonable to think that they were not confident in that position right?

No, because it’s perfectly coherent to be 99.99% sure of something but not be willing to lose your rent money if that things turns out not to be true.

that’s also pretty stupid but that’s mostly a miscommunication which you can absolutely clarify and i’d understand….

I could easily flip this on you. If you regard Quentin Grimes playing under 500 minutes despite being mostly healthy as a reasonable possibility, why are you only offering absurdly long, “Brunson wins the dunk contest” esque odds on it?

I think a healthy Grimes playing under 500 minutes is much, much closer to “Brunson wins the dunk contest” than one of two realistic 2016 presidential candidates winning the election.

and look you might think you don’t take those kinds of 250 to 1 type risks… but you probably do.. when you decide to goto law school…

Yeah, but the difference is the upside for me in these scenarios is actually quite high. The upside for me in risking $2,500 to win $100 on Quentin Grimes’ minutes total is…$100.

To put a finer point on it, if I were offered a 99.99% chance at $100 with a 0.01% chance of $2,500 being taken from me, I would not, in fact could not, take the deal.

look that’s your choice… you didn’t have to take it too literally… if the odds were good or bad… that’s up to you and that’s all i was seeking…. when you say my statement was so ridiculous that you’d take that bet… and then when challenged on it… don’t take that bet… how would you react if it was the other way?

it would be pretty reasonable to think that they were not confident in that position right? i mean for me… i would absolutely take jalen brunson not winning the slam dunk contest this year at 1:250… that’s literally free money just like i would absolutely take 1:250 that i wouldn’t be struck by lightning in my whole life…. that’s literally free money…

and it’s ok to be imprecise…. but i’m sitting here and trying to figure out if it’s ‘no way’ in the same probability as brunson winning the slam dunk contest kind of way.. i mean that’s pretty stupid… but if it’s also that it could be in the trump winning 2016 election kind of way… that’s also pretty stupid but that’s mostly a miscommunication which you can absolutely clarify and i’d understand….

and look you might think you don’t take those kinds of 250 to 1 type risks… but you probably do.. when you decide to goto law school… when you decide to take out any kind of insurance or not… when you decide to get on a plane…. some cases it’s money.. some cases it’s your life…. you might not take those risks for basketball opinions but you don’t actually have to to understand those low probability scenarios and clarify your position….

and this happens because people don’t understand probabilities all that well…