To start the season, the key would be the rotation of players around the 12-14 minutes that Julius doesn’t play. Randle usually goes out near or at the end of the first Q, the last of the starters to be subbed out. At that point, he would be on the floor with iHart, IQ, JHart and DDV. So you sub in RJ for Randle, and the 2nd Q usually starts with the following lineup:

C: iHart
PF: RJ
SF: JHart
SG: DDV
PG: IQ

Then you build back up to the starters from there. After 3-4 minutes you rotate Brunson, Mitch, and Julius back in for iHart, RJ, and one of either DDV or IQ, depending on how things are going that night, matchups, etc. Then you juggle RJ, JHart, Grimes, DDV and IQ depending on how the half is going.

Same drill in the second half, with closing lineup depending on the situation and game performance.

After 20 games or so, you can tighten things up unless injury makes decisions easier. The two players most likely to get their minutes squeezed are Grimes and DDV. If Grimes stagnates at the level he was at last year, he might be the one to be relegated to Obi’s minutes. If he improves substantially, then DDV will be the one to lose minutes, or maybe even RJ.

In other words, for the start of the season (barring trades or injury) I would expect:
1) Randle, Mitch, Brunson, iHart and IQ to play essentially the same minutes they did last year
2) RJ and JHart to split 50-55 minutes or so, with who plays more varying from night to night
3) Grimes and DDV to split 30-35 minutes or so, same as above

Oops, I used just his October data, which was the first 6 games…if you add in game 7 his 3pt% was .390, which is higher than his career average. His .543 TS% is due mainly to poor shooting from 2, which is definitely an issue, but I think it’s a bit harsh to conclude that he’s in some kind of physical decline. I get the at the rim stats are declining, but some of that is about the offense he’s playing in.

And again, I’m not criticizing his removal from the rotation, but I believe there he could be a very decent role player in a different situation…just not worth the money he’s getting paid, and not right for this team and coach. I would compare him to a Tim Hardaway Jr. kind of player right now, and he’s still in a rotation!

Just to pull a reverse Early Bird:

Giannis
Davis
KAT
Mobley
JJJ
Sabonis
Siakim
Markkkkanin
Collins
Gordon
Zion…

But as you say, just don’t play him against them, and we’re talking backup minutes anyway. Just wanted to show that there are a few decent 4’s out there. EB’s list is a better example of the players RJ might have to face in backup minutes.

I’m not all that worried about the defense. If anything, I think he’s less exploitable at the 4 than he is on the wing–his size deficit at the 4 may well be smaller than his speed/athleticism deficit at the 3.

There aren’t that many 4s around the league who can really exploit a weak defender in any event. It’s increasingly the position where teams stick guys who just don’t fit anywhere else…kind of like RJ Barrett. There are definitely specific matchups that would pose a major problem, but it’s easy enough to just not play RJ there when we’re playing the Raptors or Cavs or whoever.

Defensive rebounding is literally the one area in which RJ has excelled, so I don’t think he’d be that much worse at it than the average 4. I think it’s definitely a lesser deficit than his lack of shooting ability represents on the wing, at least.

Offensively, it’s possible RJ has a speed/mobility advantage over other 4s that he definitely doesn’t have against fellow wings. His 3PT shooting ability is also much closer to acceptable at the 4 than it is on the wing, and playing him at the 4 lets us deploy lineups with three serious shooting threats. Maybe he benefits from the extra space, or maybe he doesn’t, but it’s not like he can be much worse than he’s been anyway so I don’t see the harm in giving it a look.

Basically, if we stipulate that we have to play RJ Barrett 30+ minutes every game, the 4 might be the position where he can do the least harm.