I think basically all basketball analysis ends with one fact.

Some players are a lot better than others.

https://twitter.com/stuholden/status/1589383108776046593?s=21&t=ASnCSQlfIlKBlrO7MPEV2A

But that’s also why the Celts and Cavs are a handful. They have a great combo of spot-up shooters and iso players who can both get to the rim and pull up from anywhere. It’s pick your poison when you match up like we do.

so it’s like a scheme/strategy to allow some of those shots, or, players not rotating correctly?

allowing 15 threes a game is going to make each game against even a marginal team (just like ours) difficult to win…

if i were to be worried about the team, it would be our perimeter defense…what ever is going on right now is not working well…

it can’t all be evian’s fault, can it?

jalen brunson is a little worse than i expected…he’s slow moving forward, backwards and sideways…great composure and body control, just takes a while to get anywhere…

the RJ is a good defender notion has worn off for me, not sure why i thought i was seeing something with my eyes is such contrast to what his stats display…no more…still glad for his contract, no doubt he’ll get his points, hopefully we can flip him…

i have given up on RJ for the moment…not just the low assist to usage rate (somehow i though he would make the game easier for others), nor his inefficient shooting (he may actually be turning that around)…him and jalen are both just too darn slow to stay with a lot of other guards and small forwards…

weirdly enough it now seems like quik (who can’t shoot straight right now at all, he’s even having trouble from the line now) and cam reddish?!?! are our best perimeter defenders…

julius is playing like a chicken with its head cut off out there…lots of energy (positive and negative), but not really in control of the flow of it…

ironically enough, monday we so happen to play the 2nd worst team in the league regarding giving up successful shots from behind the arc…

1) I would seriously doubt that we’d be betting favorites vs. WAS. LAL, or SAC on the road. Let’s check back when those games come up.

2) The purpose of projecting out to 20 games is simply to consider what might happen. It’s just for fun, a best guess if you will. I don’t think we will win in Denver or GSW, but sure, anything is possible. But after a while you run out of adjustments and you are who you are. Same for teams that are currently overachieving (say, UTA, ) and underachieving (say, MIA, BKN).

And the 20-game thing is just to give players time to stabilize statistically and Thibs time to make adjustments to the lineup/rotation and game plan based on enough actual game film to review. He’s already tinkered quite a bit, and that will probably continue, especially with the Mitch and Grimes injuries.

But with what I’ve seen thus far, it seems like we will play to chalk with some variance in certain games. We’ll occasionaly lose to an OKC and beat a MEM, but those will balance out. The key to our season (i.e whether we finish above or below .500) will be how we play vs. the non-contending but non-tanking teams…and while the list of those teams are still not completely determined, I think they will include teams like CHI, DAL, WAS, LAL, SAC. But I don’t see a team that can finish much above .500 no matter what happens. We just don’t have the shooting, or the high-level talent, or the defensive personnel.

Who would we be favored against on the road?

Detroit, Houston, Orlando?

Indiana, OKC, Washington, Charlotte, Lakers, Sacramento

At least a couple others when everything shakes out.

@MIN (L)
@BKN (?)
vs. DET (W)
Vs. OKC (W)
@ UTA (W)
@ DEN (L)
@ GSW (L)
@ PHX (L)
@ OKC (W)
vs. POR (?)
vs. MEM (?)

So I see 4-4 with three games that should determine whether we are 10-10 or above/below .500.

GSW & Denver have both been struggling. Denver can’t play defense and has an underwhelming bench unit so far.

If we’re not sure what kind of team we are until 20 games in, then I’m not sure it’s useful to project out to 20 games. Otherwise, why wait?

There’s also a big difference between 10-10 with narrow wins against bad teams and blowout losses to good teams and 10-10 with a close losses to the good teams and blowout wins against the bad.