It is undeniable that RJ is not worth $30mm based on his play, but he never would have signed for something he was actually worth.

I am high on Barrett’s potential to be a high quality supporting player (a la Mikal Bridges) once he inevitably accepts that role. I am also bullish on a complementary backcourt of Brunson and Barrett.

The downside here, of course, is that we have approximately $240mm committed to Julius Randle and RJ Barrett over the next 4 seasons, and they were both very bad last year. They are both redeemable, though, and we don’t have much choice but to let them redeem themselves. And the rising cap will mitigate the impact of that.

As Marks notes, it’s incredibly rare for a poison-pill player to be dealt while the pill still applies, with only one out of 179 such players being dealt: Devin Harris, who signed for a relatively low number, so the poison pill wasn’t as prohibitive.

In short, because of Russell Westbrook’s massive salary and how much you can manipulate incoming and outgoing salaries in trades when you get into that range of money, the RJ extension still very much leaves the Lakers in the picture. For instance, IF (caps and italics, folks!) the Knicks were still willing to put RJ on the table, they could send him to the Lakers, along with Evan Fournier and, if they so desired, Cam Reddish. Russell Westbrook would then go to Utah, who would need to send out at least $37.6 million in a trade to make the money work. They could accomplish that easily with Mitchell, Rudy Gay and one of their lesser salaries like Jared Butler. If the Knicks sent Cam (or, for argument’s sake, Obi Toppin, Immanuel Quickley or Quentin Grimes) to LA, they could take on Gay themselves. If not, Gay would have to be diverted to the Lakers or to a fourth team to make the math work.

My guess is that if the Lakers were ever willing to pony up both their 2027 and 2029 first rounders to Utah in a trade, this deal would get done. Utah could even grease the skids by including Jordan Clarkson to LA, which could easily happen if the Knicks (or a fourth team) took on Kendrick Nunn for salary purposes?. At this point, I’m not ruling anything out.

1. The Charlie Ward Curse is OVER. Done. Kaput.
2. I like what we know of RJ as a person/teammate/worker, and if he does improve, I will be happy to see him do that in a Knicks uniform, whereas it would have been a bummer for him to blossom elsewhere.
3. If he does not improve, this will be a bad contract. Not a crippling one, but one we may need to attach sweeteners to move later.
4. If he does improve and hits all the performance escalators, this will be a great contract for its duration, but could then create a Jaylen Brown situation for us where negotiating his next deal will be a problem. But that would be a VERY high-class problem for this stupid franchise.

Randle’s 27, will turn 28 in November, and has been bad more often than he’s been good.

I’m really not sure how much difference Brunson is going to make, especially with this coach. We have 3 high usage guys who like to play in the paint, 2 of whom can’t shoot from 3, a coach who prefers his PG to drive to the basket, and we have a 3rd starter (Mitch) who can’t shoot either. What sort of offense are we gonna have next year?

Rose is always injured, it’s like the safest bet in sports that he’s going to miss 20+ games. And he’s about to turn 34.

Grimes and Obi barely play and, unless the FO forces Thibs’ hand, I don’t see that changing. Quickley’s going to be playing less after the Brunson signing.”

This is a fair take on the team’s absolute floor. It assumes the worst possible outcome for every hanging question.

What’s the ceiling?
-RJ in fact makes a leap at age 23, e.g. shoots from 3 more like the way he did in 2020-21
-Randle improves back to the median for his last 5 years, 3 of which have been very good
-Rose gives us the same 50-60 games he played in 6 of his last 7 years, including in 2020-21 when he was the best player on the team
-Brunson makes a huge difference
-Hartenstein becomes one of the best backup Cs in the league
-IQ, Grimes and Obi play more and better

Oh, for sure. But circumstances are important too. For me, it would be different if RJ’s team was holding firm at the max or something close to it. Since they were able to meet at the league-wide consensus of RJ’s fair value, which balances performance and potential, it’s one less moving part. And I think that the fact that Ainge coveted RJ despite him being unsigned suggests that he shouldn’t be hard to move on this salary even if he goes all Wiggins on us. Put differently, you are basically gambling on the sweetener needed to move him if he stays at this level. I think it’s a very reasonable gamble on RJ’s character, work ethic, continued perceived value, and fan appeal.

Randle’s 27, will turn 28 in November, and has been bad more often than he’s been good.

I’m really not sure how much difference Brunson is going to make, especially with this coach. We have 3 high usage guys who like to play in the paint, 2 of whom can’t shoot from 3, a coach who prefers his PG to drive to the basket, and we have a 3rd starter (Mitch) who can’t shoot either. What sort of offense are we gonna have next year?

Rose is always injured, it’s like the safest bet in sports that he’s going to miss 20+ games. And he’s about to turn 34.

Grimes and Obi barely play and, unless the FO forces Thibs’ hand, I don’t see that changing. Quickley’s going to be playing less after the Brunson signing.