Comments on: NY Post: Elfrid Payton clinging to Knicks starting spot with stellar defense

By: nicos

nicos — Fri, 22 Jan 2021 07:26:44 +0000

Oops 1.34 not 1.76. 1.76 was just the guys who passed it at age 20. So you knock a solid point off but sample size so short of killing myself it’ll have to remain a mystery. RJ’s BPM is rising fast though so maybe he gets to -1.5 or something like that and I can still feel better without doing a bunch of math.

By: nicos

nicos — Fri, 22 Jan 2021 07:13:50 +0000

I added back the rookie numbers as you asked- If you include those the average variance for the 52 players (I missed 2 before) who came in at 19 and played 6 years+ from rookie year through career prime in BPM is 2.35. My 2500 number is 1.76. Better but inconclusive given the sample size and age might work as well. I really don’t want to do a giant 300 player sample so I’ll shelve it- I still suspect I’m right but it’ll stay a suspicion.

By: nicos

nicos — Fri, 22 Jan 2021 05:02:46 +0000

I need something to keep me busy so I’m going to do the 19 year olds again Rookie bpm to career. Again I’m interested in career numbers so I need to look at guys who’ve actually had careers- if you think that’s restrictive I don’t know what tell you- I don’t care how he compares to Dragan Bender. Among 19 year olds there was no real difference between guys who hit 2500 at 20 or later but maybe that’s just 19 year olds or just the limited sample size so I’m going to look at every current 6+ year vet plus 100 random older guys and look at rookie year vs. career, 2500 minutes vs career, and age 22 season vs. career to see if that’s more predictive.

By: djphan

djphan — Fri, 22 Jan 2021 04:26:53 +0000

you have to count their rookie years and not just the first season they hit 2500 minutes… and you also have to count players who entered the league at an older age who performed worse…

there’s just no way you can attribute hayward’s bpm jump to playing 1300 more minutes rather than having an entire offseason and turning a year older in a formative year of his career…. i find that pill very tough to swallow….

so again… let’s just drop it…. i appreciate the effort but we’re just not going to agree on this….

By: nicos

nicos — Fri, 22 Jan 2021 04:18:54 +0000

I’ll look at every current 6 year vet and check their BPM in the year they hit 2500 and their career numbers- will that be acceptable? I’ll add in another 100 random guys to boost the sample size. It’ll be tomorrow- I’ll let you know in whatever thread is most current.

I want to know if I’m full of shit or not!

By: The Honorable Cock Jowles

The Honorable Cock Jowles — Fri, 22 Jan 2021 04:08:11 +0000

edit: nah

By: djphan

djphan — Fri, 22 Jan 2021 04:04:56 +0000

Yes, that’s kind of what I’m saying-

yes so i’m completely understanding you then right? and i already said how misleading that was and why…

yes your upside isn’t unlimited but paul pierce isn’t the greatest player ever…. he was once 20 years old too and he wasn’t that good either….

we can agree to disagree…. my point is that you’re using a very narrow set of parameters to remove all the possible outcomes for rj…. including the folks who entered the league at an older age and performed worse… and i don’t think we’ll get past this point if you just want to not only exclude some altogether… but exclude the rookie years they had because they didn’t pass an artificially high minutes threshold..

By: nicos

nicos — Fri, 22 Jan 2021 04:00:45 +0000

Look you’re say hey he’s only 20, anything (like Pierce) can happen but I don’t think anything can happen after 2500-3000 minutes whether you’re 20 or 22 when hit it. Some really good things can happen and I hope they do but your ceiling isn’t unlimited.

But Barrett might get to league average tonight!

By: nicos

nicos — Fri, 22 Jan 2021 03:46:05 +0000

Yes, that’s kind of what I’m saying- if he’d have been the 1.5 player he was in his second year he’d probably have played more minutes. My supposition was that guys establish a baseline around the 2500-3000 minute mark. I throw out RJ’s -4.3, don’t even look at it- there are tons of guys who start there and turn out very good. There aren’t a lot of guys who are -2.0 after 2500 minutes and wind up perennial all-stars. My point is after that amount of game time you have a limited amount of upside- still a range of outcomes- some don’t improve at, the average among all the 19 year olds improvement in BPM from their 2500 season was 1.3 for their career whether they reached them at 20 or later. Some elite guys make huge improvements like Giannis but those are few and far between. Maybe there are a ton of guys I’m missing but every example you gave proves my point- really good players usually improve 2 or 3 points. 5 and 6 in career numbers hardly ever happens. Keep looking career highs and you’ll keep missing my point- I could see RJ having a few 4.2 seasons (Pierce’s prime number) but to 4.2 as a career average would take a Giannis year two til now improvement.

By: djphan

djphan — Fri, 22 Jan 2021 03:18:48 +0000

but that’s my point… there’s no reason to only count haywards 2500 minute season… he played 1200 his rookie year! are you saying what was stopping him from reaching 1.5 bpm was anther 1300 minutes his rookie year?

that’s essentially what you’re saying….