Seems like going for 2 improves the odds, but you better make it! (I also wonder if the odds based on a team’s average 2-pt conversion success factors in that in the conference finals you are probably playing against an elite defense…)

I think it made sense to go for two there, and Rodgers had the play! Dude just dropped it. Ugh.

Z-man:
At the same time, I hated going for the 2-pt conversion earlier in the game. The common thinking is if you’re down five, go for 2, even if there’s plenty of time left. My thinking is take the sure 1, and this way if you score a TD, a FG only ties, and if the opponent gets a FG you still tie with a FG point after. Being down 5 is a shitty place to be. I don’t know what the odds are, but I always questioned it.

Seems like going for 2 improves the odds, but you better make it! (I also wonder if the odds based on a team’s average 2-pt conversion success factors in that in the conference finals you are probably playing against an elite defense…)

Idk, I still think you clearly need to go for it. The variance is greater but a 9% chance of winning following a good FG just doesn’t cut it at that point.

no it doesn’t. but i think it’s reasonably close nonetheless. i guess the key intuitive stumbling block is your relatively low win probability even if you make the long shot 4th and 8. not only do you have to convert the 2, you then have to both fade a brady 2 min drill and win in (probably) OT. so there is a sense in which a brady offense would also push the go-for-it yield down a bit from the baseline. i still think it’s probably a go, but it doesn’t seem like it deserves the open mouth treatment. the in game gambling market actually popped up a tick when they decided to kick (odds for GB very modestly improved).

apparently the 4th down decision was a lot closer than my shitty intuition suggested

https://twitter.com/ben_bot_baldwin/status/1353478222801985537

I doubt this factors in Aaron Rodgers throwing and Tom Brady on deck to run the clock out, right?

If the last 9 are for real that’s really not bad. Kemba for his career is 28.4/10.5. Dame is 30/11.7. So you’re a little south of good scoring point #’s but not so far that it couldn’t made up for. Still, I doubt it’s sustainable and even if it was there’d still be spacing and defensive issues.

Z-man:
I hate me some Tom Brady

The only saving grace for me is that I dislike Aaron Rodgers almost as much.