I just laid out his 2016 results,

that is one year… he has drafts that go back to 2007…

did you look at any one year of how synergy stats translate to the nba?

Alan:
I would not bank on MKG being in the rotation, even if/when he beats out Iggy or Spellman for the final roster spot. Rivers is gonna play when healthy, though. Burks’ minutes are safe, since he’s one of the few guys on the roster who can create his own shot. Frank’s probably are? DSJ and/or Bullock probably seem most at risk, though Quickley is the wildcard. If he’s hot right out of the gate, then the backcourt rotation becomes a real jigsaw puzzle, even if Burks sometimes slides up to 3 when RJ is on the bench.

It seems pretty clear that Thibs does not think much of Iggy, Spellman, Powell, Pinson or Harper beyond G-League filler. I can’t see MKG replacing anyone other than one of those guys, but his contract makes him seem like a courtesy invite. I’m guessing that he gets waived.

Alan:
Same starting lineup as Friday. MKG and Rivers still out. Thibs says he’s going to try to get Quickley some time tonight.

The thing that bothers me about these guys being out it that it’s harder to guess what the eventual rotation is going to look like when they are back.

Rivers is going to get some time at the guard position (not that I necessarily think he should) . So who’s out when he comes back?

Frank? DSjr? Burks? Where does that leave Quickley?

If MKG gets some minutes does that mean Knox is completely out of the rotation at SF? Does Knox become the 3rd PF behind Randle and Obi?

There are so many similar players with different skills it’s going to be a tough job to settle on 10 players or so and a set rotation.

I think the boxscore tells you most of what actually happened that’s critical, but it’s obviously missing a few important things, doesn’t tell you the why these things happened (coach, system, role, teammates, strategy), doesn’t tell you how to weight each factor properly, doesn’t tell you how to fit players together to maximize the “team level” output etc..

You can try to fill in some of the blanks with more data, but you’ll still be missing a lot of things critical to the analysis.

On top of that, when you are talking about drafting, you are talking about teams playing different strength schedules (another monkey wrench on top of an already complex analysis) and the fact these are kids at different stages of physical development, playing the game for a different number of years, with different work ethics, etc..

You can argue about this crap all day.

The bottom line line is that it’s hard enough to value the pros that you see all the time correctly. That’s why we have so many disagreements unless there’s a big difference. When it comes to draft prospects it’s an educated guess.

Sometimes things are so complex the best way to learn is by trial and error and seeing what actually happens and what works on the court.

djphan: you are trashing on something else with zero evidence

I just laid out his 2016 results, which were an absolute train wreck that was outperformed at the top by the actual draft…is that not evidence? Are you even open to considering it?