Golden State Spree was an all-defensive second team player. I would be very impressed if Barrett reach something like this on his second year.

If they trade down, it would depend on what we get and who we draft with the lower pick.

The only trades I want to see are either as part of a deal for an established star, or for another young yet cheap established “good” player that preserves cap space (like Sabonis/Collins). If someone thinks Barrett is a super star in the making fine. Maybe he is…. but a bird in the hand…. something….something.

Does anyone see more Spree in Barrett than the Harden or Wade comps that folks in the media have been throwing around? Personally, I think the Harden and Wade comps are just silly. He doesn’t have Harden’s handle or craftiness, nor does he have Wade’s defense, length, or quickness.

Technically a prospect with a lower floor and a lower ceiling can be considered a better prospect than one with a higher floor and a higher ceiling if you think the probability distributions of prospect productivity are different;

Of course. I was confused by the “but” in the passage: “…Barrett having a higher ceiling, but Clarke a lower floor.” Seemed like the sentence was set up to praise one’s floor and the other’s ceiling.

Technically a prospect with a lower floor and a lower ceiling can be considered a better prospect than one with a higher floor and a higher ceiling if you think the probability distributions of prospect productivity are different; eg if prospect 1 has an extremely high chance of obtaining a median outcome, whereas Prospect 2 has a middling or low chance and the productivity differences between their respective floors and ceilings aren’t too great. Clarke seems pretty guaranteed to stick in the league, even if his floor is someone who’s out of the league after two years because he’s been feasting on younger competition. But yeah, I don’t see a lot of situations in which the prospect with a lower floor and a lower ceiling are better prospects than one with a higher floor and a higher ceiling. But it’s not conceptually impossible, I think. Fwiw I think Clarke also has a pretty high floor–hes gonna be league average at least over his career.

That said I still take Barrett over Clarke in a vacuum but the trade down scenario makes it a much more interesting debate.