Yes, but that’s the thing about averages–it doesn’t go that way every time. Sometimes it makes no difference, sometimes you end up with Jordan Hill instead of Steph Curry.

On the other hand, we have literally nothing to gain by passing any other team.

Of course, and sometimes the sixth pick turns out way way better than the fifth. On average, it doesn’t mean much though.

No one would disagree that we have nothing to lose by tanking. That’s quite obvious, but my point was that at this point the importance of tanking is diminished. We basically cannot improve or hurt our odds of picks #1-4 (slightly worse odds if we finish 27th, but odds are exactly the same for 28th-30th). I’ll leave it at that.

I also wanted DeAndre Jordan to be a Knick, so I wasn’t a complete fool.

Wishes should have time stamps.

On the other hand, we have literally nothing to gain by passing any other team.

I’d much rather have the 5th pick than the 6th. We don’t know who will be available. We were 1 pick away from Steph Curry. That stuff matters.

Statistically 5th is only slightly better than 6th. I’d of course rather have 5th than 6th too, but the difference is marginal. Check this out:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-much-is-winning-the-nba-draft-lottery-really-worth/

The difference in production between the first and second pick is larger than the difference between #3 and #10. In most drafts there are 1-2 fairly surefire stars, and then typically after that it’s a bit more random.

That’s the reasoning we used to help us sleep at night missing out on KAT after TH2 went supernova in the last week of the season.

No, it’s not. In fact it’s the opposite: my entire point is we can’t do anything at this point to improve or really even harm our chances at a top 1-4 pick. Literally any tanking or not is bickering between a slight improvement in odds of picking 5th over 6th or 7th. It’s not nothing, but it’s very unlikely to cost us a star player, unlike lowering your odds of picking 1st by 50% (which is what happened in your example). That’s an enormous difference in likelihood of getting a star.

In other other words, tanking further is not particularly important. Would be far better for our young guys to crush it than to get a 30% better chance at picking 5th rather than 6th.

That’s the reasoning we used to help us sleep at night missing out on KAT after TH2 went supernova in the last week of the season.

From a lottery odds standpoint, our chances at the top picks are essentially set. The 28th – 30th records have identical odds at picks #1-4, and the 27th place has only slightly worse odds. In other words, at this point what we’re tanking for is to get the 5th pick rather than the 6th or 7th pick if we don’t get drawn in the lottery.

In other other words, tanking further is not particularly important. Would be far better for our young guys to crush it than to get a 30% better chance at picking 5th rather than 6th.

I thought he was one of the best prospects ever seen in the NCAA, even with the limited advanced stats we had at the time.

IIRC at the time, a lot of the commentary was that you could pick Rose or Beasley no.1 and it would probably be the right pick, which probably gives weight to the idea that whilst Zion is great, 3 first rounders would be overs for him.