To be clear I said that 5 extra rebounds would probably yield 4 extra shots

Might want to revise that down, we’ve got rule changes! Offensive team recovers a shot that hits the rim (via rebound, loose ball foul, or out of bounds), shot clock now resets to 14 seconds. Also streamlined clear path rule in favor of offensive team and a broader rule for triggering instant replay in case of a “hostile act”. Pretty good job, rules committee! Way to troll the NFL.

With respect to Krsitaps, he can rebound. He is below average.

I wonder how much where you fall on how important this is depends on whether you think he’s a 4 or a 5. I think it’s relatively minor all things considered, but I also think he’s likely to play most of his minutes at the 4 for his entire career. I’m much more concerned about his lackluster perimeter defense. I’m fine with KP not snagging rebounds as long as he’s boxing some other players out. But I’ve always loved that Robin Lopez shit where he never gets a rebound but boxes out 2 or 3 guys at the same time. I wonder if that results in more or less injuries than going for the ball. Do you jump on the grenade, or do you jump on your friends?

But my point is exactly exemplified by you mentioning Embiid and Wiggins.

Embiid showed production when he was healthy, and got progressively healthier as his career progressed, and even then he signed a contract full of clauses for injuries. Wiggins did not show production, or better, showed poor production and got re-signed despite of that because he’s young and supposedly promising. The one that worked out is precisely the one who showed production before being offered the extension, and the one who didn’t so far is the one who had bad advanced stats.

You’re focusing on the wrong thing when you say bad teams pay for past production. Yes, they do, but with veterans like Noah and Deng, who were very productive players but are done physically. It’s a different case. Embiid’s production is not past in the same sense, it’s present as he’s just now entering his physical prime.

A more adequate comparison would be the contract Zach LaVine for example received, or Jabari Parker, or Harrison Barnes. Those players received contracts entering their primes that are on par with their reputation, perceived value and future potential but are not on par with their on court production, just like Wiggins. Similar cases to Embiid would be guys like Jokic, Towns or Davis, guys who showed superstar production at some point in their rookie contracts.

We can argue if paying Porzingis is closer to paying Embiid or to paying Wiggins, and it’s difficult to say because he looked more like Embiid for half his games last season and then a lot like Wiggins until he got injured. But the fact is that Porzingis’ overall present production is simply not indicative of a player you have to max right away.

I guess it is indeed less terrible than giving Noah his contract, but that’s far too little for my taste. Of course I’d rather pay Porzingis or Wiggins than pay 18 million for Noah, anyone would. Porzingis is on the same level as Giannis after his 3rd season, a raw prospect who flashed some superstar talent here and there and looked prime for a leap. But Giannis was perfectly healthy AND didn’t get a max, so why should Porzingis?

Actually, my recall is that garbage franchises mostly pay or trade for players for their past production. Consider Noah, Rose and McDyess on the Knicks, or the three free agents Sacramento hired for 2018-2019 as examples that come to mind right away.

It’s funny, since Perry was behind those free agent signings in Sacramento (those signings were cited at the time as reasons why the Knicks wanted to hire him). That’s neither here nor there, just seemed funny enough to mention!

Smart means not maxing out a player returning from knee surgery before he proves he’s fine.
Smart means understanding that KP will be a Knick for a few more years at the very least.
Smart means extending the qualifying offer and sign or match unless his knee buckles.
Smart means not risking him getting hurt since this year’s all about player development.
Smart means doing what you can to maximize cap space for next summer’s free agent frenzy .
Smart means gathering as many draft picks as you can rather than trading them away.
Smart means resisting the temptation to trade for a star that’s 10 years older than your rookies.
Smart means understanding that lottery was flattened so now tanking is less critical.

But you’re describing exactly what garbage franchises do, they pay players based on hypotheticals and assumptions instead of actual production.

Actually, my recall is that garbage franchises mostly pay or trade for players for their past production. Consider Noah, Rose and McDyess on the Knicks, or the three free agents Sacramento hired for 2018-2019 as examples that come to mind right away. Paying for future production also happens, but its not only the “garbage” franchises that do it and it can work out. Consider Embiid and Wiggins as recent examples. One of these is clearly working out and one probably won’t. THJ is another example of paying for future production. I doubt we will get our dollar value for him, but he is a useful player who could still prove he’s worth his contract. Even if he doesn’t, his contract is still a lesser mistake than paying for past production.

I’m sorry, but I’m pretty sure I read the same argument when the Melo trade was made. Then it was how many more years of Melo has shit teammates, Melo is not being used properly, the Knicks can’t surround him with talent, he does so much more than the stats tell us, etc etc.

Not that that’s reason to assume Porzingis will be Melo. He’s much younger and he has shown some impressive stuff in his early years, and there’s a good chance he actually becomes a player worthy of the contract you think he should receive.

But you’re describing exactly what garbage franchises do, they pay players based on hypotheticals and assumptions instead of actual production. I get the whole idea that that’s what you’re gonna get drafting a 19 year old, but it’s still no reason to simply max extend a guy who hasn’t shown himself to be a max guy when there are other options to be explored.

You have it 100% right.

We can all see that his WS/48, BPM, and Wins Produced all suggest he’s an average or even below average player. If you accept those models as evaluating his value correctly, then of course you are going to think giving him the max is crazy, especially in light of his injury history.

IMO, those model are flawed. Not that NBA Real Plus Minus is without flaws, but there’s one that says he’s a quite good player already. Most on/off numbers look good.

Besides, that’s not the correct way to value players anyway.

The value of anything is based on what it will produce in the future. The past is just the base you use to help you project the future. We haven’t seen what he can do when used properly and with players that will enhance his own talents. We also knew going in he was a project.

There may be risk is making projections, but a very smart man once said I would rather be approximately right than precisely wrong. If you looking at his past boxscore stats, imo, you are being precisely wrong.

Porzingis has no right to demand a max extension and he’s gonna look foolish and petty if he goes through all the trouble of playing on a qualifying offer to spite the Knicks. Just look at how the public opinion is shifting on Butler, with a lot of people blaming him for the whole Wolves situation even more than Thibodeau’s terrible GM decisions.

The Knicks should do exactly what Dallas did to Noel. Wait until his contract expires, then offer him a very good deal (in KP’s case and with the cap slated to grow I would jump from the 4 year 70 million offer Noel rejected to a 4 year 90 to start discussions) and see how he reacts.

I can’t think of a single time that a team did that to a player of KP’s stature.

Does the name Jeremy Lin ring a bell?

My money is that Porzingis doesn’t get a max, but something close to it so that we can add big guys around him, and then we throw the supermax at him for his 3rd contract.