I agree the defense looks ugly and it will probably always be, but I don’t think that’s a big issue, especially on this Knicks team. That’s why he should play together with Ntilikina, as both should help each other in their primary weaknesses. Plenty of good teams have handled bad defensive guards pairing them with good versatile defenders, and Ntilikina was already really good guarding elite guards last season.

Isaiah Thomas has a career -2.8 DBPM and his best career mark ever is -2.0. He had a -3.3 when they won 53 games in 16-17. Obviously he was on a whole different level in terms of offensive production in that year, but if Burke can just replicate his numbers last season over a full year he’s a starter even with the terrible defense.

Next Spring, when both KP & Timmy are suiting up, Burke will excel and take his game to an All-Star level, dropping 22ppg and dishing out 8 assist in 2019 calendar year. Someone gives Burke a Timmy type contract and just like ATL, we lose him for nothing. Let’s see if I’m right.

Season OBPM/DBPM (ORtg/DRtg)
13-14: -3.0/-2.5 (101/115)
14-15: -1.9/-1.9 (100/108)
15-16: -2.5/-2.0 (102/108)
16-17: -2.3/-3.4 (103/114)
17-18: +4.3/-3.2 (117/114)

Over the last three years, Burke has an efg% of 51% and a TS% of 53%. I think that is a good baseline for his shooting. I would be surprised if he dips much below those.

I would suspect because he is entering his prime he will climb a bit over that and if Fitzdale gets his 3ptr back to over 0.4 like his last year in Utah it could be even a bit higher than that.

If I was putting a betting line together I would set it at over/under 54.5% TS%

54.5% TS% is a good number for a PG and with his great assist/to rate he will probably be an average starting PG next year, and hopefully a great backup one for us for years after that.

I think the chance of him flaming out is about the same as the chance he develops into a star. Most likely he will be a solid PG moving forward, not a starter on a great team but a definite rotation level player.

The biggest NBA news of the day is probably that David Nwaba signed a contract with the Cavs, or that Anthony Davis changed agents, which is leading people to believe he’s going to the Lakers eventually maybe probably one day.

If anyone is suggesting that I’m cherry-picking stats to prop up Burke’s chances, that’s probably true too. Because at the end of the day, I believe in the guy because what I saw looked and felt real and sustainable. There was a swagger and comfort level in everything he did that made it feel real. I would guess that even the most dogmatic statheads among us know what I am talking about and agree on some level.

But hey, we’ll find out soon enough who’s right.

We’re mostly talking about Burke because we exhausted pretty much every other topic of conversation and there’s still like 20 days before pre-season starts.

I will admit I’m a bit hyped for preseason this year, I look forward to finally watching a Knicks team where I won’t be angry whichever way games go because at least 50% of the roster is young and somewhat promising. At this point last season we were discussing garbage signings like Ramon Sessions and Michael Beasley and Jarrett Jack and anxious to see if Melo would finally get traded. It’s a quality of life improvement for sure.

I think his G league data obviously matters, but you have to discount it a bit because of the level of competition. To me, when you adjust that G league data a little, combine it with his NBA data from last year, and use some intuition (he’s coming into his peak years and he’s more mature), the most likely outcome is that he’s a better player now than he was in his first few years and will make a very good backup.

That’s exactly what I am hoping for.

I hope he continues to show enough to be considered a solid backup PG and we can get him at an attractive enough price to sign him long term.

His low turnover rates and solid assist numbers seem sustainable to me.