Comments on: Knicks Morning News (2018.08.19)

By: Knick fan not in NJ at this time

Knick fan not in NJ at this time — Mon, 20 Aug 2018 15:50:40 +0000

you’re welcome. I notice some other stats we use that aren’t there. As I get time, I will add to the list.

By: Dough Chew [dolan pls]

Dough Chew [dolan pls] — Mon, 20 Aug 2018 13:31:31 +0000

@12 thanks for putting that together. I think it will be helpful.

By: Z-man

Z-man — Mon, 20 Aug 2018 03:27:11 +0000

Sorry for rambling…(my wife thinks I’m watching Stepmom for the billionth time)…in a larger sense, there is unlikely to be any offers for KP until after he returns from injury and shows what he can do, nor is Perry likely to entertain any made under those buyer-friendly conditions, nor will either he or KP’s team be able to negotiate in good faith until then. So any serious discussion on this topic right now is all conjecture.

By: Z-man

Z-man — Mon, 20 Aug 2018 03:04:00 +0000

Put another way, I don’t hear anyone suggesting that KP is a lock to be a bargain at the rookie-scale max, like AD or Durant or maybe even Embiid or Simmons. The question is, is he likely to retain enough market value over the course of the deal to justify the risk? In other words, will he be an asset in 4 years even at $25-30 million per? It’s a very tough call. Sure, he’s an “upside” guy at this point, but his upside is still legitimately an HOF-level player, and most analysts would agree with that. He’s young enough so that he will maintain that upside allure for at least 4 more years. And he’s clearly not ever going to be a total bust, or even an Andrew Wiggins-level overpay…he’s already been an above average NBA player even with his deficiencies.

By: Z-man

Z-man — Mon, 20 Aug 2018 02:49:25 +0000

I would, however, rather trade him for an excellent package than max him.

I also don’t hear anyone calling KP untouchable. So yes, if the right package came along, by all means, trade him! In fact, I went on the record saying as much. Do you remember when it seemed that we were negotiating a trade with the Celts? See posts @234 nd @348 from this thread.

The question is: what’s the right package? And when is the best time to entertain offers? It’s not a simple either-or question.

By: Bruno Almeida

Bruno Almeida — Mon, 20 Aug 2018 02:26:31 +0000

But I too would rather max him than lose him for free. I would, however, rather trade him for an excellent package than max him, unless he really comes back from injury looking really good. I agree it’s clear there’s no right answer, at least yet, that’s why I’m giving my interpretation.

By: Z-man

Z-man — Mon, 20 Aug 2018 02:11:07 +0000

I’m fully aware that KP is getting the max, and that what he brings to the table as the one potential superstar drafted in a long time is probably worth it on the business side.

All I’m saying is that I disagree with the decision and I think that it’s far more risky / uncertain than people are making it out to be.

Who is making it out to be not risky or certain?

Maxing the best guy you have when he’s not worth it just because you’ve been terrible for a long while and don’t want to keep rebuilding is a bad decision

There is no “good” or “bad” decision here. There is only your best guess vs. the best guess of others. I don’t think Strat or anyone else is saying KP should be maxed because we’ve “been terrible for a long while and don’t want to keep rebuilding.” What I’m hearing from Strat is that you can’t constantly make decisions out of fear of the worst-case scenario, especially with a guy that has demonstrated as much two-way potential as KP. I would guess that, given his size, age, and short period of record-setting dominance at the beginning of last year, the vast majority of GMs in the Knicks’ position (including Morey, Ainge, Ujiri and Buford) would rather max KP than trade him or lose him to free agency.

By: Knick fan not in NJ at this time

Knick fan not in NJ at this time — Mon, 20 Aug 2018 00:34:59 +0000

Further comments. Players that played for more than one team have more than one entry in the data. I used the data as is. If the mean is significantly different from the median, then the distribution is skewed. I didn’t do statistical tests for signficance; to my judgement, the stats that are significantly skewed are FTr, ORB, TRB, AST%, BLK%, OWS, DWS, WS, OBPM, BPM and VORP. In these cases some players are really exceptional at the statistic in question, but their very high (or very low) statistic isn’t balanced numerically in the average by other players who have equivalently very low (or very high) statistic.

By: Knick fan not in NJ at this time

Knick fan not in NJ at this time — Mon, 20 Aug 2018 00:28:22 +0000

Ok, here I go again, trying to paste a readable table. For background, it turns that many advanced statistics have skewed distributions, so that an average player is actually not the same as a median player (one in the middle of the rankings at the 50th percentile). Nobody uses medians, but they are pretty easy to calculate with a spreadsheet, so I did the calculations for all the stats listed in Basketball Reference as “Advanced Stats”. The results are below. They use the data from all players in the NBA in the 2017-2018 season.

PER
Mean 12.7
75th Percentile 16.2
Median 12.7
25th Percentile 9.2

TS%
Mean 0.529
75th Percentile 0.582
Median 0.540
25th Percentile 0.494

3PAr
Mean 0.342
75th Percentile 0.487
Median 0.356
25th Percentile 0.161

FTr
Mean 0.249
75th Percentile 0.313
Median 0.221
25th Percentile 0.143

ORB%
Mean 4.7
75th Percentile 6.8
Median 3.2
25th Percentile 1.7

DRB%
Mean 14.9
75th Percentile 19.0
Median 13.9
25th Percentile 10.0

TRB%
Mean 9.8
75th Percentile 13.0
Median 8.6
25th Percentile 6.1

AST%
Mean 12.6
75th Percentile 16.8
Median 10.0
25th Percentile 6.7

STL%
Mean 1.6
75th Percentile 1.9
Median 1.4
25th Percentile 0.9

BLK%
Mean 1.6
75th Percentile 2.1
Median 1.1
25th Percentile 0.5

TOV%
Mean 12.9
75th Percentile 15.7
Median 12.2
25th Percentile 9.4

USG%
Mean 18.6
75th Percentile 22.3
Median 17.6
25th Percentile 14.7

OWS
Mean 1.0
75th Percentile 1.6
Median 0.4
25th Percentile 0

DWS
Mean 1.0
75th Percentile 1.5
Median 0.6
25th Percentile 0.1

WS
Mean 2.0
75th Percentile 3.1
Median 1.1
25th Percentile 0.1

WS/48
Mean 0.071
75th Percentile 0.120
Median 0.079
25th Percentile 0.028

OBPM
Mean -1.7
75th Percentile 0.2
Median -1.3
25th Percentile -3.3

DBPM
Mean -0.7
75th Percentile 0.7
Median -0.6
25th Percentile -1.9

BPM
Mean -2.4
75th Percentile 0.3
Median -1.8
25th Percentile -4.3

VORP
Mean 0…

By: geo

geo — Sun, 19 Aug 2018 23:57:59 +0000

what’s ironic – due to the fact that the knicks have the golden goose (msg), they could actually make all their decisions purely by what works best on the court…