Okay, so they’re doing one thing right, at least! Frank’s getting the start tonight. Seriously, just start Frank and play him a gazillion minutes. It’s not like he’s suddenly going to lead them to 8 straight wins. Give him some experience.

like curry wasn’t an amazing dribbler in college… he was good but he wasn’t really what he is today who probably has one of the top 5 handles if not the best…. it’s very tough to say someone has x amount of moves at 19-21 and he’ll add a few more and that’ll propel him into being the best pg in the nba… you can say that about everyone…. but some players have more of an ability to do that than others….

which is why steals and blocks explain a lot more about a players future value than what they might suggest in isolation…. taking the ball from an opposing defender requires a lot of split second reaction timing and awareness that also gets leveraged elsewhere on the court in different ways…. is it a coincidence that someone like cp3 or steph have very high steal rates?

that’s why having a dominant stat line is usually pretty wide and tall and that’s usually a precursor to greatness… or at least very goodness….. if you are already coming into the nba at a pretty high skill level it’s infinitely easier to add more skill.. whether through athleticism improvements or just practice….

so if you have a big who can’t block shots.. or rebound or score efficiently in the paint… that’s a huge thing to worry about even if the other skills seem dominant… likewise if a guard or perimeter player can’t score inside efficiently or have good steal rates then it’s likely they lack the essential skills and/or athleticism to excel… it’ll just get worse in the nba….

that’s why i like carter and brown a lot… they have both a wide and tall skillset…. mikal bridges is also similar but he has age working against him in comparison….

I totally agree with that in general, it was just odd to see Harden and Love being used as examples by that guy. Like, why point out that James Harden was given a “limited upside” flag when he was still taken #3 overall?

Sure, but the point is more about how “potential” and athleticism really only become relevant when you have already-existing basketball skills. And, specifically in the case of Love and Harden, that worries about “athleticism” were rightfully trumped by their obviously existing basketball skills. This is why I’m skeptical of the arguments proffered by those comparatively low on, say, Luka–some think he should be the 5 pick because of athleticism concerns, ignoring that athleticism as a real plus only becomes apparent holding other basketball skills being equal, which is why Doncic is the obvious number 1 instead of, say, Ayton. Because no step vertical only matters if you can also shoot, dribble, rebound, and pass.

I do agree that Bamba will most likely be gone by #9. Carter will most likely be the guy there, and I’d be totally fine with him being the pick. They really need to just finish at least #9. #8 would be better, though, since they’d probably be able to pick Mikal Bridges or Mo Bamba there.

Me neither, I’m sure he’ll hit the ground running for the Hawks

But Harden and Love were both top five picks, no?

Paul Millsap dropped to the late second round in 2006 in spite of impressive collegiate production. The reason for Millsap’s drop is likely captured in NBADraft.net’s lowly 7/10, 5/10. And 7/10 ratings for athleticism, size, and potential. Stephen Curry and James Harden both earned a “limited upside?” flag from Draft Express; Curry due to his “frail frame” and “average athleticism, lateral quickness, and wingspan”, Harden due to his “average size and athleticism.” These are all players I would put on the far right of the ‘raw’ to ‘skilled’ continuum, yet they moved along faster growth trajectories in the pros than any of their peers. Those growth trajectories are exactly what the concept of potential is supposed to be measuring.

https://www.canishoopus.com/platform/amp/2014/2/26/5435374/potential-nba-draft-prospects

A choice quote that reflects my preconceived biases:

Interestingly, we see no development in rebounds, steals, or blocks (high-skilled blockers actually decrease after their first season something we also see in college which I attribute to opponent game-planning) for either group. This is consistent with analyses I have done in the past. These traits are something a player either has or does not have. Do not expect a prospect who cannot block, steal, or board to figure out how once he enters the NBA (not that this never happens of course). Instead, these traits should be viewed as a part of the baseline a player has to work from, much as height and leaping ability are popularly understood.

…

Players who fill up box-scores and show a high level of skill across a variety of traits are often denied access to the ‘high potential’ category if they lack impressive athleticism. Just look at how some current NBA stars were viewed entering the league. Draft Express had this to say about Kevin Love in 2008: “… There are serious doubts about how his proficiency will translate to the pro level… there really aren’t many players at his height with his lack of athleticism in the pros, and it’s tough to guess how high in the draft a team will be willing to take a chance on him.” Here are some comments on Marc Gasol “The current leader in efficiency rating in the ACB League, Marc Gasol has built a pretty mistake-free style of game that helps him to emerge as a statistical standout…. How much will Gasol’s lack of athleticism get exposed in the NBA? I guess that’s the question every single decision maker will be asking himself” before he fell to the second round in 2007…