I posted it! 🙂

tickets to be had for 8 bux tonight… whos going?

Now that I know that, I’ll be sure to start going to more games. I got my wife to sort of kind of be a Knick fan back in the pre-Melo years where $20 was the standard ticket price on StubHub for most games. We went to a bunch of games.

euro leagues are a bit different since comp is slightly better and you have a much bigger age gap but before age 23 it’s mostly similar difference…

if you’re a 4 year senior… you’re not really any more ready than a college freshman…. what matters more is how good you are … and how good you are is mostly informed by how well you do relative to your age to your comp…..

Luka Doncic is tearing up the second best league in the world and he’s still only 18. You have to take him first.

Hah, let me know when he makes a Final Four. Then we can talk lottery.

This + 100

What this means is that I’m evaluating them on 3 criteria:
1. Prospective ceiling
2. The desire for self-realization. How badly is the kid gonna work for it?
3. Fit with the team, city, and organization

College used to provide this time until the Rookie contracts came to be (as a result of Larry Johnson’s insane deal). Now the league has to undertake that responsibility, hence the g-league and 2-way contracts. I’m glad the Knicks are utilizing are making use of this and are even going so far as to find player development coach(es) that will fit the organizational philosophy and vision.

Teams now have to be willing to work with their chosen younguns for 1-4 years (and be willing to replace them with better prospects when needed or possible) to get them to max NBA readiness.

This especially hold true for teams that don’t have the luck to draft the 5 or so rookie megastars (the +3 standard deviation guys) each decade produces.

there’s probably more variance with 4 year seniors than 19 yo’s….. if you’re bad as a 19yo then you’re probably just bad…. if you’re a 4 year senior putting up good numbers… you’re probably not even good… i mean the best 4 yr senior in the nba is probably draymond? butler? everyone else came in the nba at a much younger age…

Years ago almost everyone played for 4 years (even the potential superstars). Coming right out of college you could narrow down the range of what you were getting because you had seen so much of them and they were several years into their development. Now you can too, but the older players are mostly mediocre or they would have come out sooner.

When it comes to 19 year old players, I could look at least year’s lottery class and I’m still not sure who’s going to be really good and who’s going to be a bust. There are several that everyone was high on last year that have been bad so far. There’s little guarantee which way their careers are going to go.

We have Mudiay and Frank on our team and I wouldn’t be shocked if either or both went one way or the other even though Mudiay is 3 years into his career. The probability gets lower as the years go by, but it’s not impossible that he becomes a top PG.

People were talking about Oladipo as a mediocre and disappointing player just last year and now we are hearing “star” and potential “superstar” about him because he exploded up.

When there is greater potential for an explosion up or big disappointment a few years out (like 19 years olds), your selection position has less value and your ability to select “best player available” is lower. So imo you should adjust your thinking.

Last year Monk was the Guy I Didn’t Want. This year’s GIDW is Knox. Meh. He is so raw that it will take years for him to be any good, if he’s ever good; combine that with the Knicks’ player development history and he’s a big pass. Plus he has that stoned, clueless look on his face all the time.

This feels like what someone could have written 20 years ago about Tracy McGrady lol