2010 Report Card: Wilson Chandler

Here’s what I wrote in Chandler’s report card last year:

One question that remains is how Chandler will develop. On the optimistic side, he did make strides in multiple areas in 2009. Chandler improved his free throw shooting (63.0% to 79.5%), three point shooting (30.0% to 32.8%), scoring (13.4 to 15.6pts/36), assists (1.7 to 2.2 ast/36) and fouls (4.4 to 3.3 pf/36). But these numbers are pedestrian. The young swingman doesn’t do anything great, and his rebounding, blocks, and steals are about what you’d expect from an average 6-8 small forward. His scoring volume is above average (15.6 pts/36) but his efficiency is below (48.0% eFG, 51.5 TS%). Perhaps that’s Chandler’s lot in the NBA: to be the generic player.

For Chandler to make strides and become a genuine NBA starter, he’ll need to make another step in his development. One area could be his three point shooting. Connecting once on every three attempts is too low especially for someone that’s likely to see a lot of attempts in D’Antoni’s system. But a more critical leap would be for Chandler to get to the line more often. Last year he was second to last on the team in FTM/FGA, a measure of a player’s ability to draw contact on the offensive end. Frequently when he gets the ball in the paint, he ends up with a turn around jumper, instead of making a strong move to the hoop. Chandler needs to summon “Ill-Will” when he’s within 6 of the basket.

The good news is that Chandler did increase his scoring efficiency, going from a true shooting percentage of 51.5% to a more respectable 53.4%. The bad news is how he did it. There are a few ways to increase your TS%. Two main ones that would coincide with a sign of Chandler’s development are increasing the number of times converting from the charity stripe and an uptick in three point percentage. However Wilson did neither of these as he scored fewer singles and connected less often from downtown in 2010. His fta/36 fell from 2.8 to 2.5 and his ftm/fga dropped as well (from .16 to .15). Meanwhile his three point percentage was a shameful 26.7%.

So how did Chandler increase his efficiency? Simple, he changed what type of shots he attempted.


According to Hoopdata, Chandler dramatically reduced the number of treys in favor for a trip to the rack. By taking more shots in the paint instead of behind the line Chandler’s TS% jumped almost 2 percentage points. Basically when Chandler would receive the ball for an open three he’d head fake then drive towards the hoop instead. On the one hand it’s good that this correction was made and Chandler is a better shooter, but on the other it’s not the kind of improvement you want from a 22 year old. In other words you could say that Wilson Chandler didn’t get better in 2010, but rather the coaching staff made him better.

Chandler’s supporters will point out that he was recovering from injury and didn’t have the offseason to expand on his game. While his detractors will note that Chandler’s recent injuries could be a concern as well. In addition to his surgery last summer, the swingman sat for the last month of the season. Hopefully his moniker “Ill-Will” won’t start to represent his fragile state.

A year later, the question still remains how Chandler will develop. I’ll give him credit for being able to make the change in his game to forsake the three ball. However if Wilson Chandler wants to remain an NBA starter, especially playing for downtown happy Mike D’Antoni, he’ll need to do much more than that.

Report Card (5 point scale):
Offense: 2
Defense: 3
Teamwork: 3
Rootability: 3
Performance/Expectations: 2

Final Grade: C

Similarity Scores:

.000 Wilson Chandler 2010 NYK 13.7 53.4 50.2 15.4 1.4 5.4 2.1 0.7 0.8 1.7
.042 Kirk Snyder 2006 NOK 14.6 53.7 50.3 14.9 1.5 4.4 2.8 0.8 0.6 1.9
.052 Tim Thomas 2000 MIL 14.7 54.9 50.3 16.3 1.7 5.7 1.9 1.0 0.5 2.2
.052 Chris Carr 1997 MIN 13.3 55.6 51.8 14.6 1.3 4.9 2.1 1.0 0.4 1.6
.057 Chucky Brown 1991 CLE 12.0 55.5 52.4 15.2 1.9 5.2 1.9 0.6 0.6 2.3
.061 Sean Elliott 1991 SAS 14.2 56.4 50.0 15.4 1.7 5.4 2.8 0.8 0.4 1.7
.062 Richard Jefferson 2003 NJN 16.6 56.3 50.4 15.5 1.9 6.4 2.5 1.0 0.6 2.0
.064 Jeff Green 2009 OKC 13.9 53.6 49.1 16.2 1.5 6.5 1.9 1.0 0.4 2.2
.076 Mike Miller 2003 TOT 14.7 53.7 49.8 16.6 0.8 5.6 2.8 0.7 0.3 2.1
.077 Kenny Walker 1987 NYK 13.3 53.6 49.1 14.9 2.5 7.1 1.6 1.0 1.0 1.6
.087 Nenad Krstic 2006 NJN 14.4 54.1 50.8 15.7 2.7 7.5 1.3 0.5 0.9 1.9

This list doesn’t bode well for Chandler’s development. The upside is Mike Miller, Richard Jefferson and Sean Elliot, but the downside is a lot of busts and replacement level players. If Chandler doesn’t show significant improvement, he might see himself playing for the Zhejiang Horses too.

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Mike Kurylo

Mike Kurylo is the founder and editor of KnickerBlogger.net. His book on the 2012 Knicks, "We’ll Always Have Linsanity," is on sale now. Follow him on twitter (@KnickerBlogger).

40 thoughts to “2010 Report Card: Wilson Chandler”

  1. He was pretty bad for the first 30 or so games of the season, and it was at that point that he abandoned the 3-point shot and things started to click. He was one player for half of his season and another player for the other half, so his final stats reflect that; give him a full season of “efficient Ill Will” instead of mixing in a half-season of “3-point brick laying Ill Will” and his final numbers might look pretty solid. He was quite a consistent and reliable scorer for a little while there.

  2. Sounds like Wilson needs not just a report card, but also a parent teacher conference.

  3. Personally, I evaluate him from the point he made the change to his game forward. He started off horrendously but sustained that improved level for long enough to make me think it wasn’t an aberration.

    By that standard, his TS% was above average and he retained similar usage. Changing your game by eliminating 3 pointers is the easy part. Retaining similar usage despite that shot reduction is not as easy. So I would grade him a little higher offensively heading into next season.

    However, I am also getting concerned about his development.

    I knew we weren’t going to see much improvement heading into last year because he didn’t do anything in the off season and it was reported he was still having problems with the ankle at the start of the season.

    Now he’s had THREE surgeries this off season (scar tissue follow up from last year’s surgery, nose surgery, and sports hernia surgery). He’s not sheduled to be active until mid July at the earliest.

    You really have to wonder how much progress he’s going to be able to make after that. It has been awhile since he’s even been on the court and will need a month or more just to get in shape.

    I still think he can develop into an above average player at both ends of the floor. But I think recent developments (including the fact that he’s a partier) have lowered my short term and perhaps long term expectations.

  4. I didn’t think much of Ill-Will coming into the year and he did little to change my mind. I am going to take a different tack than normal and note that he at least seems to have had a nice impact (-5) on the defensive end.

    Still, there is precious little to like about Chandler at this point who is putatively one of our major building blocks going forward. And I don’t expect that to change. Having Lebron on our team would make him look a ton better though…

  5. I think Chandler will manage to stay around the league for a while because he’s got good size/athleticism, did improve his D (as Owen points out), and is a decently high volume scorer (average usage rate, but GMs and coaches may be more likely to look at 15 ppg than anything). 53.4% average usage 6-8 slasher with above average or average D… should stick in the NBA unless he gets blown away by an offer from Europe or something (Greek economy and weak Euro probably make that a lot less likely, and not sure whether WC has any interest in Europe or not). Will probably also be overpaid, though.
    That said, good analysis and the comparables are not promising. Not a strong starter at this point. I think C is pretty fair since he’s about average.

    Even if he can keep up the 55% TS%, or whatever he had once he changed his shot selection, for a whole season… still pretty likely to be overpaid. By the end of their contracts their teams weren’t too thrilled with having signed Josh Howard or Caron Butler to their deals. I don’t see Chandler being much better than those guys: 3rd or worse scoring option who doesn’t do much outside of score and defend. Stephen Jackson has been viewed as overpaid at various times. People questioned the Warriors giving Maggette his deal. Tayshaun Prince is overpaid and has been hard to trade according to rumors. A lot of slashing wings without strong jumpers (and even some with strong jumpers) and/or handling/playmaking seem to age poorly. You can poke holes in those examples, but giving an above average but not All-NBA caliber wing above the MLE generally doesn’t sound like a good idea to me.

    “But I think recent developments (including the fact that he’s a partier) have lowered my short term and perhaps long term expectations.”

    Marijuana is hardly a party drug and 11:30 is not that late. The weirdest thing to me is that he had “12 small bags” of pot. If you’re an NBA star who smokes recreationally you would usually have one big bag. If you’re a drug dealer you’d usually have 12 small bags. My guess is that his buddy is a dealer and it’s his pot (though Wilson was probably smoking it with him).

  6. Chandler’s TS% from December on was 55.6%.

    If you assume he could theoretically eliminate all his 3 pointers and remain as efficient from mid range and going to the hoop (a questionable but not an impossible assumption), his TS% from December on was 57.8%.

    The league average is 54.1% for SGs and 54.4% for SFs.

    Personally, I’d prefer he was in the gym working on his outside shot so he at least had the potential to expand his usage if required, but if we get a max contract player or two, it’s likely his usage will drop anyway. So perhaps he can whittle down some of those 3 pointers further.

  7. Problem is that for the D’Antoni’s offense to run efficiently you’d really like your three to be able to step out and hit a three pointer. So while Chandler’s shot selection certainly helped his numbers, his inability to spread the floor probably hurt the Knicks as much as his increased efficiency helped them. Could he get his number from three back to where they were? Probably, especially given the fact that he had ankle and groin issues most of the year (Chandler himself said he was only really heathy for a couple of weeks over the course of the year and as he almost never speaks I’m inclined to believe whatever he says) but 32% still isn’t anywhere close to where it needs to be.
    On the plus side, his turnovers stayed low despite the fact that he put the ball on the floor a lot more often. And while numbers really don’t support this he did seem (to my eyes anyway) to be a decent passer off of the dribble- I’m guessing almost all of his meager assist total came this way. And if he really was hampered by the ankle/groin/hernia all year maybe a fully healthy Chandler could get his TS% high enough that it’d make up for his inability to spread the floor.
    Still, give the fact that Gallo’s best position is the 3 (and Walker can play there as well I’d look to move him. Unfortunately, the surgeries/arrest hasn’t helped his trade value any and I think if the Knicks keep him and he gets off to a good start he’s still going to be tough to get fair value for because he’s heading into free agency (and his salarie isn’t high enough to have a lot of value as an expiring deal). I’d probably trade him for a first round pick in the 17-21 range (though I’m not sure the Knicks could find a taker) which wouldn’t impact cap room too much or hold him to package with Curry.

  8. I wouldve given him a 3 all the way around but besides that spot on analysis as usual.

  9. “Marijuana is hardly a party drug”

    I know, right. It’s so yesterday. I mean, who parties with that anymore? Only nerds. Wilson should find himself a good freebasing party so he can really unwind.

  10. “In other words you could say that Wilson Chandler didn’t get better in 2010, but rather the coaching staff made him better.”

    What??? I thought D’Antoni is an idiot!! lol

  11. So apparently the Bulls are reaching out to Phil Jackson.

    I’m not going to be able to deal with it if the Bulls sign LeBron and hire Phil Jackson. Once was enough. If that happens I’m going to pretend the NBA doesn’t exist.

  12. Phil is just pushing the lakers to give him another contract.

    Only if Lbj is going to chicago Phil will re-join the bulls.

    but is not going to happen :8

  13. I do think Chandler can develop into an above average player. The big thing to me at this point, though, is what his second contract is going to look like. As I mentioned in #5, when I look at similar players around the league they all seem to be overpaid. Chandler is still young enough that his contract might only cover prime years and unproven enough that maybe he doesn’t command the $9-10 mill per that similar SFs have in the past (right now I would be shocked if he did). At one price I would consider Chandler a potential bargain, building block, good rotation player, while at another price I would consider re-signing him a mistake.

    Is it legal for the Bulls to contact Jax while he’s still coaching the Lakers? Usually you hear about teams having to ask for permission just to interview assistants during the playoffs.

    “If you assume he could theoretically eliminate all his 3 pointers”

    I doubt he’s going to eliminate all his 3PAs, but he might hit a more respectable rate this season.

    “The league average is 54.1% for SGs and 54.4% for SFs.”

    Out of curiousity, do you know if that is the average among SGs/SFs or of all the points scored by SGs/SFs?

    “Wilson should find himself a good freebasing party so he can really unwind.”

    Or just drink a few beers. I was just saying that weed is a pretty mellow drug.

  14. Well I doubt that the Knicks trade Wilson now as his stock is fairly low (well, not as “high” as it could be – get it? “high”?) Unless he gets thrown into a larger trade for salary reasons, which could very well happen. I think he’d be a great bench guy.
    Draft wise, Vasquez is looking pretty good in workouts. He’s a guy I think could come in and help us right away – not with the upside of a lot of players – but a good, smart role player. As opposed to someone like Willie Warren who still needs a good deal of coaching. Would like to nab him and Jerome Jordan in the 2nd round.

  15. Chandler is probably worth more to us than he could bring back in a trade. We are woefully lacking in the depth department, and need bodies. The team is a little swingman-heavy right now, but if Walker or Gallo were to get injured, we’d miss Chandler’s relatively efficient scoring and passable defense. It’s hard to get all that excited about him, but he’s a rotation player, and we need those. Even if we manage to hit the home run and sign LBJ, I would think there would still be a place here for Ill Will.

  16. I believe Hollinger factors height into his draft rating system… Does anyone know if he uses listed height or an actual measurement? \

    Chad Ford has an Insider article in which he claims to have an “inside source” who has leaked the Knicks top offseason plans:
    Plan A: LeBron & Bosh
    Plan B: Wade & Bosh
    Plan C: LeBron & Wade
    Plan D: LeBron & Dirk
    Plan E: Wade & Dirk

    And their recruiting pitch:

    1. “You can play alongside another superstar.”

    2. “You’ll have a good supporting cast.”

    “The source said that Knicks coach Mike D’Antoni believes that the ideal way to maximize the effectiveness of LeBron or Wade is to put him in a role similar to that of Magic Johnson with the Showtime Lakers.
    The idea is to let LeBron or Wade handle the ball and surround them with long, athletic players who can spread the floor, opening up the lane for penetration and kickouts.”

    “With Bosh in the middle, Gallinari at the 4, LeBron or Wade alongside Chandler on the wing, and Douglas at the point, the Knicks believe they could be a 55-win team next season, said the source.”

    Also looking at Grant Hill as the #1 vet’s min option along with “Brad Miller, Joe Smith, Earl Watson, Kurt Thomas, Rafer Alston, Quentin Richardson and Fabricio Oberto. And look for the Knicks to scour the market overseas for young Americans who have excelled in Europe.”

    3. “You’ll be working with a coach and an organization that can win.”

    4. “You can own the world’s greatest city, the basketball mecca.”

  17. “Chandler is probably worth more to us than he could bring back in a trade.”

    Depends. He may be. On the other hand, if WC is what it takes to package with Curry to bring back a starting center, an Andre Igoudala, or a couple of good vets with mid-level type contracts… could be worth it. A draft pick offers both more upside than Chandler (in my opinion) and definitely more downside. Someone like Damion James might be available in the mid-20s and be a better shooter and rebounder than Chandler from day 1… actually able to play the “stretch 4” for D’Antoni and a prospect I like (especially that late). One pick is quite risky, the upside being 4 years of team control vs. 1. Perhaps the Knicks could even get Minnesota to give up #16 and #23 for a pretty sure thing starting SF… sort of doubt it, but maybe. Given the place they are in their rebuilding they may not be looking to dump Chandler for draft picks, but in the long-run it could prove to be the right move.

  18. I really do not understand how the majority of writers think that Chicago is a better scenario for Lebron…

    If Lebron comes to NY he will undoubtably bring a Bosh, Amare, Dirk sidekick which would compliment his game much better then Rose would.

    Not that Gallo is better then Deng, however if you would try and surround him with the right pieces , Gallo is the better choice.

    Chandler is a better role player then anyone that bulls have on their roster.

    The X Factor I feel is Currys contract which is more valuable then all.

    Also… Does anyone else feel like dirk would be the best piece for lebron… Imagine Lebron with options of Dirk and Gallo? Unstoppable.

  19. Garson,

    I like the Dirk idea, which would give us another three point threat and a legit star that can get his own shot off, but who will play defense and grab rebounds? You got LBJ chucking it up, or passing it to Gallo or Dirk or Douglas for an outside shot, but who is grabbing the rebounds when they miss? Who do you put on the other team’s best scoring big? Who gives you some shot blocking in the middle to deter small guys like Rondo (whom we will see at least 4 times in the regular season) from operating in the paint? This is why Bosh is more attractive. He is not a great defender but is much better than Dirk.

    This is why the most painful news of the season/off-season was when Marcus Camby signed that contract extension with the Blazers. Camby would have been the answer to all those questions.

    Then again, maybe Curry’s contract could fetch us the missing link…

  20. I think you’ve got to feel that any scenario which involves Dirk leaving Dallas is a pipe dream. Seems like the only reason he opted out was to take advantage of the (soon to be dead) CBA in which he could make more money AND negotiate himself a no-trade clause into his new contract. Kobe is currently the only player in the league with any type of no-trade because you have to be a UFA with 8 years of service in the league and 4 consecutive with your current team. I think there’s even less chance of Dirk leaving Dallas than there is of Wade leaving Miami. And as much as we may want to believe otherwise, there’s no doubt that Chicago is a better basketball situation for LeBron than New York is. Rose and Noah are both better than Gallo, who is the best guy currently under contract with the Knicks (excluding Lee) and the stats on this page show Chandler may not be as good as we may have thought. It’s probably going to take one hell of a home run deal with Curry’s contract plus the prospect of teaming up with Bosh/Wade and the lure of NY/D’Antoni’s offense to bring LBJ to town.

  21. “Rose and Noah are both better than Gallo”

    Maybe, but are Rose and Noah better than Gallo and Bosh? Because that’s really what Chicago is competing with– not just the players on the roster, but the players on the roster plus NY’s flexible cap situation.

  22. @18

    Pretty much agree. NY is a better situation if LeBron can team up with Wade/Bosh and is on board with it (one has a similar game and one is nicknamed “RuPaul”), otherwise Chicago is better. People tend to look at things how they are rather than imagining the possibilities. Chicago is already a playoff team. Chicago can say it has the defense and only needs the top scorer, but that’s not too much different from Cleveland. LeBron would either have to believe in Rose’s potential or get dupped into thinking he’s better than he is to go to Chicago (or really want to step into Jordan’s shoes).
    (Would call Noah a better role player than Chandler, probably Hinrich in a good year also.)

    @18 and 19 re: Dirk

    The two concerns are defense and age.
    -Bosh and Amare share similar defensive concerns with Dirk (which is why I Wade is right there for me as a partner: Douglas, Wade, LeBron on the wing and get some big boys who like to bang inside… heck, maybe even get Jax to come to NYC instead of Chicago or Cleveland…).
    -Dirk is entering his 32 year old season. In all likelihood it’s downhill for here: he’s already declined pretty significantly from his peak. The Knicks’ window would be short. LeBron + Bosh are entering their 26 year old season and have a theoretical window of like 8-10 seasons together… Gallo, Chandler, Douglas, Walker, anyone the Knicks draft… all even younger. As much as they have to convince LeBron they will win now, it may take a few years to really come together into a champion or dynasty. Not much chance of a real LeBron-Dirk dynasty. Plus how long do you sign Dirk for? He’ll be 35 the last season of a 5 year deal and 36 on 6 years (s&t for 6).


    See 21.

    Also, this was Dirk’s chance to get a long-term deal. After next season he’s closing in on 33 and it’s harder. May be hard to make up for leaving 20 mill on the table either way… but someone probably pays him (and it’s probably Dallas).
    I’m not that interested in Dirk, but if LeBron AND D’Antoni were to do a full-scale recruiting approach… I’d take that over Mark Cuban and Jason Kidd.

  23. @21
    Fair enough. Good point. And they’re probably not. The difference between Bosh and Rose (each of whom would be the better sidekick in each scenario) is greater than that of Noah/Gallo.

    I’m not sure I understand what you’re saying. Basically, that Dirk opted out because it’s his last chance to get a big deal and if LeBron and D’Antoni wanted him in NY they could get him? Sounds pretty good, and I certainly wouldn’t be against it, but him and Cuban are pretty tight and he’s on record as saying he wants to finish his career in Dallas and that putting on a different uniform would be weird. That said, he’s better than Bosh, and given the choice for the next 4 years (the longest a Dirk contract can be under the current CBA) I’d probably prefer Dirk. But for the rest of their career you’d have to take Bosh, just by virtue of being like 8 years younger. Dirk doesn’t defend the paint that well, but then again neither does Bosh, and Dirk probably fits a little better on the offensive end with LeBron. Again though, probably not happening, so we should focus on the Plan A/B/C enumerated by Chad Ford this morning on espn.

  24. No matter what anyone says, my dream scenario for the Knicks is w/o a doubt LeBron and Bosh with the main reason being as Ted mentioned both entering their age 26 season only not to mention Gallo entering just his age 22 season. We can dream championship for the next close to 10 years, for sure I would hope they would at least win 1 title in that time while competing for one every season which for me I would sign up for in a heartbeat.

  25. The best thing I can say about Chandler is that he is a solid player and keeps his mouth shut. Hell, he had a broken nose and a variety of other issues, but no one even knew. Most guys on a losing team would take every opportunity to sit with an injury. I’d say that speaks volumes about Chandler. I’d love to see him come back healthy and take the next step, but if the knicks could get some real talent at center, I think he is expendable.

    The initial Pre Draft Measurements are out:


    Hassan Whiteside – 7’7″ wingspan! By my calculations, each of his arms is the same length as N8.

  26. Just wondering, is there any way we could get both Bargnani and Bosh from Toronto? Maybe sending Curry and Lee to Toronto? But do we even want Bargnani? He’s a 7 footer with range at a reasonable price, and averages a little over a block per 36. He tore Lee apart this season, but then again that’s not much to be proud of. I think we only do this is if LeBron says so, but Wade and Bosh say yes.

    PG: Douglas
    SG: Wade
    SF: Gallo
    PF: Bosh
    C: Bargnani

    So Douglas and Wade would be the back-court (good defensive unit), Gallo would be our spot-up three point shooter who can also drive if/when he needs to, Bosh would be our dominant post presence with range, and Bargnani will be our Memhet Okur? Can’t really find a big role, but I’d take him. Not a strong team defensively, but I’ll take it in terms of D’Antoni offense.
    Oh, I also read a few months back that J.J. Barea would love to play in New York because of our large Puerto Rican population. I would like to have him coming off the bench, he’s quick and can score, and we don’t have a 1st guard off the bench. He may not be as gifted athletically as Nate, but he won’t be as hard to coach, I’m sure. Besides, I’m not sure of where he fits in Dallas with Roddy B.

    The league won’t call this “tampering?” But I doubt he leaves LA, especially considering that Los Angeles is a title contender every year, and is going to be the favorite to win the West next year unless Dallas does something mind-blowing to piss us off.

  27. Oh yeah, one more thing.

    There should be a lot of optimism in New York now, at least sports wise. We have the always strong Yankees, the Super Bowl is here in 4 seasons, the Jets are in Win-Now mode, Theirry Henry is coming to play for us, and the Liberty are title contenders this year. Let’s hope the Knicks can keep the good streak up.

  28. bargnani and bosh are not a good combo.
    they have the same strenghts and weaknesses.

    they both need a tough partner that plays defense and lives in the paint.

  29. Agreed with #34 about Bargnani/Bosh. The Raptors ranked dead last in the NBA in defensive rating, and the Bargnani/Bosh frontcourt had a lot to do with that.

    And apparently Phil Jackson has scuttled the Bulls rumors, which makes me breathe a sigh of relief.

    The conventional wisdom that the Bulls have the best talent to surround LBJ takes a blow when you look at some of the inefficient offensive players that are on that team. Here are four key players on the team and their TS%/eFG%:

    Deng .531/.482
    Rose .532/.495
    Noah .557/.504
    Hinrich .501/.478

    Compare those with four guys who would likely get major minutes on the 2010-2011 Knicks:

    Gallinari .575/.523
    Douglas .571/.545
    Walker .651/.628
    Chandler .534/.502

    Major caveats apply: Walker’s numbers have the “small sample size” caveat, and you could say the same thing to a lesser extent about Douglas. And the Bulls’ guys are unquestionably better defenders and rebounders. But the Bulls are seriously lacking in efficient shooters, and we would have the ability to add ANOTHER super-efficient player like Bosh (.592/.522) which would make us one of the most potent offensive teams in the league.

  30. @26

    Dirk and Bosh weren’t far apart last season: http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&p1=nowitdi01&y1=2010&p2=boshch01&y2=2010

    Who was better basically depends on how you value TOs (where Dirk is insanely low, perhaps thanks to Kidd) vs. rebounds (where Dirk is insanely low again, not a good thing this time). Defense also, where Dirk might actually be better. Dirk is a proven playoff performer, too, whereas Bosh isn’t really. Theoretically Bosh may still be getting better while Dirk is declining. Bosh had a career year, though, so maybe he actually declines next season.

    I would say whoever the better player is would be the better sidekick for LeBron. I don’t know that Dirk would necessarily be a better “fit” offensively. He takes 83% jump shots. Someone who can score inside and out might help LeBron, and Bosh has maybe the best first step of any big man so he can get to the hoop/line. Especially since the Knicks already have Danilo as a jump-shooting big who can’t rebound.

    Dirk is a free agent, so I don’t see why theoretically he can’t sign a 5 year deal or a 6 year deal with his own team. I think he would fall into the “Larry Bird” category under #19 http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm#Q11 Maybe I’m missing something about opting out.

    In light of Dirk’s playoff performance and the play of the old Celtics, I’d probably agree with you about Dirk for next season and maybe a couple after that. I wouldn’t call it obvious, though. Plus LeBron might be more easily sold on another star entering his prime then on joining up with yet another aging star.

    I also think Dirk will stay in Dallas. Anything is possible, though. If Dirk is eligible for a 6 year deal and demands it/gets a 5 year or s&t offer elsewhere… maybe Cuban decides to part ways rather than pay him $25 mill or whatever when he’s 37. Say a team makes a huge run at Dirk and Bosh would like to come home to Dallas… maybe Cuban and Donnie Nelson see the opportunity to get younger without getting too much worse (then again, what do they give up in a s&t?). From Dirk’s perspective, he may see the opportunity to play with a LeBron or Wade (who beat his team in the Finals) as his best shot at a Championship. I’m just saying that personally, if I had to choose between Dallas/Kidd/Cuban and NYC/LeBron/Walshtoni… I know which I’d choose. I’m not Dirk though and he’s probably back there next season.

  31. “perhaps thanks to Kidd”

    He’s been very low his whole career, but the last two seasons have been career lows which is why I say maybe Kidd’s helping him out. Bosh is also a low TO guy, just not insanely low.

    “Just wondering, is there any way we could get both Bargnani and Bosh from Toronto? Maybe sending Curry and Lee to Toronto? But do we even want Bargnani?”

    I would say 1. maybe and 2. no. Bargnani, Bosh, Danilo… might be a good offensive frontcourt, but would probably be the worst defensive frontcourt in the NBA. Toronto and NY had arguably the two worst defensive frontcourts around last season (NJ and Minni probably qualify too).

    “He’s a 7 footer with range at a reasonable price”

    I think he’s fairly overpaid. Very good shooter, but right there as far as worst defensive center in the NBA and overall offensively he’s just above-average (not good or great). Toronto was the worst defensive team in the NBA, and they were 8.5 pts/100 possessions worse defensively with Bargnani on the floor. I would really call him the Kyle Korver or Steve Kerr of centers. While you can get by with a guy like that on the wing, having him at the center of your defense is tough.

    “Bargnani will be our Memhet Okur?”

    Difference being that Okur is an average defender, while Bargnani doesn’t even know the word for defense in English…

    “J.J. Barea would love to play in New York”

    At the minimum he’d be a great signing. Much above that and I don’t know.


    The Giants also won the Super Bowl just 3 seasons ago…



  32. “Dirk is a free agent, so I don’t see why theoretically he can’t sign a 5 year deal or a 6 year deal with his own team. I think he would fall into the “Larry Bird” category under #19 http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm#Q11 Maybe I’m missing something about opting out.”

    This is because of the NBA’s extremely confusing over-36 rule. I’m not exactly sure what it is but the gist is if you are under 36 years old at the start of the contract, the contract can’t take you past your the season of your 36th birthday or something like that. I was completely unaware of the rule until I saw it mentioned on ESPNDallas.com the other day in an article about why Dirk opted out and what it could mean to the future of the Mavs. Here’s the quote from the article:

    “Nowitzki turns 32 in June, which brings the league’s over-36 rule into play. Because of that rule and Nowitzki’s age, Dallas does not have the advantage of offering him a new contract that’s one year longer than rival teams can offer. Cleveland’s LeBron James and Miami’s Dwyane Wade, for example, are young enough to command six-year deals from their current clubs as opposed to the maximum five years that can be offered by other teams.”

  33. The rest of the quote:

    “Under the league’s current system, Nowitzki is eligible for a four-year maximum contract from Dallas worth $96.2 million once he opts out. The most he could receive from another team is a four-year deal worth $93.1 million.”

  34. http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm#Q49

    According to this explanation, I do not believe this will preclude Dallas from giving Dirk a 6 year contract because they have his Bird Rights. The final 2 seasons will simply be treated as deferred salary. It will cost the Mavs against the cap for the first four seasons of Dirk’s contract, but Cuban doesn’t seem to mind paying the luxury tax. It hurts more if they were planning on maintaining cap space for offseason 2011 to sign FAs, since I suppose it will eat their cap space. If they plan to re-sign Haywood and/or trade Butler and/or Dampier that might not matter, though.

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