(Tuesday, November 27, 2018 1:03:17 AM)
Emmanuel Mudiay is doing his best to show the New York Knicks that their point guard of the future is already on the roster.
(Tuesday, November 27, 2018 1:03:17 AM)
Emmanuel Mudiay is doing his best to show the New York Knicks that their point guard of the future is already on the roster.
(Monday, November 26, 2018 5:59:29 PM)
The Knicks have the fourth-best odds to land Kevin Durant next summer, according to the sportsbook Bet DSI.
[NYTimes] Willie Naulls, Knicks All-Star and Celtics Champion, Dies at 84 (Tuesday, November 27, 2018 12:03:59 AM)
Naulls was an All-American at U.C.L.A. and one of pro basketball’s early black stars, playing on three championship teams.
[NYTimes] Making Sense of the N.B.A.’s Wacky Start (Monday, November 26, 2018 2:53:11 PM)
The drama has come faster than usual this season, from fistfights to free agents to sneakerheads grabbing the spotlight.
(Monday, November 26, 2018 5:48:47 PM)
There have been encyclopedias written about the philosophy of coaching. It can seem so complicated, so byzantine. But it was the great Chuck Daly who reduced the profession to its simplest terms, back when he was massaging egos on the Bad Boy Pistons, taking on the job of leading the original Dream Team through the…
(Monday, November 26, 2018 4:51:47 PM)
DETROIT — The New York Knicks have their three-game winning streak and second-year shooting guard Damyean Dotson has his own streak. Sunday’s game in Memphis marked Dotson’s fourth straight game in which David Fizdale didn’t play him. It leaves Dotson’s future cloudy. It’s only going to get worse as shooting guard Courtney Lee will be…
(Monday, November 26, 2018 10:55:59 AM)
Maybe this winning spurt is a blip on a long, losing road of development, but Trey Burke believes the New York Knicks should focus on larger stuff — the playoffs. The Knicks carry a three-game winning streak into Detroit on Tuesday. The NBA’s youngest team have beaten in succession three playoff-caliber clubs in Boston, New…
134 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2018.11.27)”
Morning everyone.
Haven’t really had much time to watch the games much less comment here on them, but I really enjoyed yesterday’s 151-comment thread – reasoned opinions on all sides, very little belittling etc… felt great.
My thoughts on where we are:
– I do not think that we will tank. I DO think there is a downside to throwing young kids (ie. Robinson and Knox) out there when they obviously are not really prepared to play in the NBA right now – it doesn’t do Robinson any good to get 4 fouls in 8 minutes and get even if he gets a couple blocked shots and dunks. So if you don’t play Robinson, who can you play? Vonleh and Kanter. That’s just the nature of the beast.
– I DO think there is some value to playing Vonleh and Mudiay even though they are not signed beyond this season. Ian Begley said on the KFS podcast the other day that he does NOT get the impression that the Knicks will just throw FA money around a la Amare/Felton in 2010 if they strike out on Durant and Kawhi — so in that case they will have the ability to reward one or more of the FAs-to-be on the team this summer, hopefully with a judicious / team-friendly contract. Unless they just absolutely blow up this season (even more so than they have), I don’t think either is in line for a big contract just because their playing history is so bad. And I agree with whoever said in the last thread that you just can’t stop playing players who you spend time developing and then lo and behold are playing well for the purpose of tanking. If you’re going to do that, you might as well just waive everyone and sign THCJ and DRed to play, and then cut THEM if they dare put up a TS north of 40.
– I would not play Hezonja pretty much at all unless they are really seeing something in practice. I guess he’s getting pretty minimal minutes anyway but I don’t get why Dotson and Trier aren’t getting all his minutes.
I’m not sure what to make of Mudiay. He has always had great physical talent, but why is he so much better this year? Is it just small sample luck and he’ll regress by next week or next month? I’m not so sure.
If you look at his numbers, these things stand out to me:
– Career high FG% driven mostly by a ridiculous improvement in his 2p% (career 40% –> 56% this year). He’s shooting the 3 ok this year but not significantly better than usual (career 31.8%, 33% this year).
– Career highs in rebounds, steals and blocks.
– Career low TOV% even though usage is down (ie. not down because of the Melo “if you take 1000 shots your TOV% will be low)
– higher FTR than his career (25.7% career, 29.2% this year).
here is the most optimistic theory as to why this may be sustainable:
1) his 2p% is mostly up because he is getting to the rim a lot more and finishing a lot better. His %FGA in the restricted area is ~37% – career is only about 30%. He is shooting 61.4% there vs career 51.1%. While that might just be small sample size (it’s only 44 shots in the restricted area), I think it’s hard to look at him going to the basket and not see there’s an obvious difference between him this year and previous years – he looks a lot more under control, falls down less, etc.. And remember – part of Fizdale’s deal was He is also shooting a lot better on 3-10 foot shots which might be unsustainable, but if you look at NBA.com’s shooting profile, most of those shots are non-RA paint shots which are still good shots. His long-2 percentage is obviously unsustainable (78% from 16<3 range) but that's only 9 FGAs, not really significantly contributing to his overall 2p%.
to be continued….
Tanking is not as easy as it appears to some. First of all, it’s illegal; second, players have no incentive to become complicit: why should Kanter, or anyone else, diminish his own value by playing worse than he can?
The only thing a coach could do is deliberately put a crappy lineup out there night after night, but that defeats the purpose of developing young players and finding out who might be a keeper. It may do more damage than the alternative, which is to play your best and let the chips fall where they might. I support this view.
That said, the obvious road for the Knicks is to give as much time as possible to the rookies so that they get a chance to develop while we tank to the best of our ability. Winning games on the backs of Kanter or Hardaway, for example, is not useful in any way.
So play the rookies and tank away! Best of both worlds.
sorry for some truncated thoughts above — for some reason I “don’t have permission” to edit my own comments.
Anyway–
2) Coaching makes a difference: his shot profile IS very different. He’s now shooting 67% of his shots at the rim and from 3 vs career 44% from those locations. By comparison, guys like Lillard and Harden shoot about 70% of their shots from those locations — pretty close! Seems pretty clear that Fizdale has been in his ear about that. And re: the finishing at the rim improvements — remember that part of Fizdale’s deal has been teaching guys how to finish at the rim better.
3) his “effort” stats are much better — hard to know whether this is a matter of him playing for his professional life and next contract or whether he’s really just in better shape and playing with more confidence (likely a combination of all of the above).
– reb/steals/blocks all career highs — steals markedly so.
– it’s not just luck re: the steals — he’s also averaging a career high in deflections/36 also at 2.6 per 36 (in 2017-18 it was 2 per 36, 2016-17 was 1.7/36). 2.6 per 36 isn’t exactly Jimmy Butler and Covington but is in the same ballpark as Oladipo, Josh Richardson, Donovan Mitchell, etc.
-if you watch him play, he’s jumping passing lanes, chasing much closer over screens etc. It’s not just luck — he really is playing harder. He’s clearly in better shape and trying harder.
Anyway, it’s only 300 minutes and obviously it’s a small sample. But there are signs that Fizdale has uncovered something here.
During the Memphis game they mentioned that he is 10 pounds lighter. I’m sure that helped.
Also, per the Post article pointed to above, Dotson could be a trade candidate and several teams have asked about him. I like him, but they need to make space for Trier and he is not essential; but I have trouble putting a value on him. I think he is worth more than a second pick unless its a very good second round pick. But I don’t think we could get a protected first from him either. And we could potentially need him on the future. What are your thoughts?
Vonleh on the other hand — not sure exactly what to make of him. His improved play is basically improved shooting from just about everywhere, and getting to the line a lot more. He’s shooting 41.7% from 3 point range which seems basically unsustainable given his history and how badly he misses sometimes. He is blocking a lot of shots too.
My too-early prediction for what the FO does this season:
1) Kanter gets bought out after the trade deadline
2) Courtney Lee gets traded, hopefully bringing back at least a 2nd round pick and a smaller 2018-19 contract (or an expiring)
3) One of Mudiay or Vonleh should be traded at the deadline but won’t be (redux of 2017-18 when KOQ and Lee should’ve been traded)
4) Trier signs the biannual, Baker gets dumped.
Unless we can get a very high 2nd (like 31-35) or better for Dotson, there is zero reason to trade him. He’s on such a great contract, has some upside on both sides of the ball, plays a high value position.
Good stuff Frank.
I don’t think Mudiay will continue to shoot 56% on 2PAs (he’s currently shooting 78% on 16<3 shots, among other outliers) but I can buy that he's made some legitimate improvements. The problem is due to where he was coming from production-wise, even the shooting 56% on 2PAs version of Mudiay isn't all that good.
I would like some more clarity on his cap hold situation. I was under the impression that if he rejects the QO, his cap hold of $12 million and change is on the books while he's an RFA until we renounce it. Ptmilo has forgotten more about the cap than I'll ever know though and doesn't seem to think that's the case.
Honestly it's still very difficult for me to envision a scenario in which bringing him back on any multi-year deal seems like a good idea by season's end.
And Kornet is so extremely expendable that it seems truly pointless to cut anyone but him.
This offseason will really be so interesting.
We all love the kids but as KFS + Begley said on their podcast, if somehow we do get someone like Durant or Kawhi to come, there is zero chance one or more of the kids aren’t packaged off with a draft pick to get a vet to come for a win-now season.
Even more interesting would be what happens if we strike out on KD/Kawhi. The cap jumps to 116? million in the summer of 20 and we could easily have max cap space then too even if we selectively sign some smaller deals this summer.
by the way re: Hardaway – hate to say it but I’m a fan. My feeling is after this summer when there is SO MUCH cap space out there and half the league in free agency, his contract actually won’t look so bad. If he were just a little better on defense…
Truth is – you put KP back in there and he covers up a ton of defensive mistakes. Not the case with the current form of Robinson and with Kanter.
This is not really a very good argument. … “He is grossly overpaid, but other franchises will likely make some similar mistakes so he won’t look so bad….”
He makes 18M a year to be a league average high volume chucker who plays abysmal defense…. lots to love there…..
There is a reason he is untradable….
But this doesn’t really provide any value. Signing free-agents to a fair market contract is something any team with cap space can do. Mudiay could just as well be on the Grizzlies developing and then we could sign him in the offseason.
Granted there is an advantage to being the incumbent team in getting free agents to sign, but a fair-market deal still doesn’t help much. I think the only way it helps is if we get a team friendly deal, or we trade him this year for future assets.
I don’t want to trade Dotson either, and Fizdale’s benching of him is the one frustrating part of this recent streak. (Well, one of two if you are Team Tank At All Costs.) But I will say that the emergence of Trier, and the evolution of Frank’s role to primarily play the wing, has made him expendable enough that I’d be willing to use him as a sweetener to unload Lee’s contract (or, if the FO wants to, Tim’s). Trading him for a 2nd round pick is at best a lateral move, maybe a backwards one, as Dotson is already about as good as you can expect from most 2nd rounders.
Is it the nature of the beast? Why can’t we trade or release Kanter, and if Robinson picks up two quick fouls, enter Luke Kornet or Isaiah Hicks or some stiff we pick up on the scrap heap? That seems like a nice, simple way to accomplish our main goal this year.
As I said before, I still don’t buy that Mudiay’s cap hold is more than $10M. I read the CBA FAQ carefully and what I concluded matched the $4.5M figure on spotrac’s list of Knick cap holds.
I love me some Mitch Rob but I actually fear for his life tonight….Andre Drummond may actually kill him tonight and eat his liver with some fava beans and a nice Chianti!
You are way too logical and goal oriented to work for Dolan. I tell Kanter’s agent to find me an expiring and a second rounder for your oh so valuable client and if you can’t STFU til past the trade deadline when we will release him. His carcass might have some value at the deadline. Or a contender’s back up big might snap a fibula….
I don’t mean to pick on your well-thought post, Frank, but I don’t understand why you can’t do this, either. This is exactly what Phoenix, Memphis, Dallas, and Chicago did last year, and now they have Ayton, JJJ, Doncic, and Carter, respectively. What did we gain that offset reducing our reward to Kevin Knox?
Dallas pulled Dennis Smith out of games in which he was playing too well. Chicago benched healthy young guys who were playing well. Memphis might have called THCJ and asked him to play shooting guard given the guys they were running out there. Are they worse off for that today?
It just seems like one of those things where we think we can’t do it, but really it’s a just self-limiting attitude because you’re (i.e. the Knicks) afraid to behave unconventionally to do what’s right.
It’s a pity that in real life FOs can’t treat good pros like absolute crap like we do on our fantasy basketball here.
Sportrac lists it at $5.7M but it also lists Porzingis’ at $7.5M, which I know is bullshit. The Capulator lists them at $12M+ and $17M+ respectively, which is consistent with my understanding of the CBA.
Refer to 37. How much do free agents count toward team salary?
Mudiay’s 2018-2019 salary is below the average salary, he’s a first-round pick, and we have his Bird Rights so I see no reason why his cap hold wouldn’t be 300% of his current salary.
Sportrac is terrible with cap holds. They always have been (I remember a discussion here back in 2014 about cap holds and sportrac being misleading there, too). It’s annoying that they’re so bad and they really should be better, but the simple fact is that they’re terrible with cap holds, so don’t rely on them for cap hold information.
Someone mentioned earlybirdrights.com and it seems like they’ve done a much better job detailing all the ins and outs of team’s salary cap info. Here is their Knick page: https://earlybirdrights.com/salary-cap/nyk/
But really, the simplest thing to remember is that lottery picks coming off of rookie deals have huge cap holds. It’s been the case since the late 1990s CBA. I believe the logic is exactly what you would expect, that a lottery pick that you want to resign after their rookie deal is done is typically going to be a top player and thus you shouldn’t get the benefit of them not counting much towards your cap while you go out and sign another star player. Whether that’s a good idea or not is obviously up for debate, but that was their logic with the cap hold rules for lottery picks.
33 year old Marc Gasol les the Grizzlies in minutes last year; 31 year old Wesley Matthews and 39 year old Dirk Nowitski were both in the top-five for the Mavericks; the Suns are in year 4 of their rebuild which is what got them the #1 pick.
The Bulls actively did what you’re suggesting the Knicks do and not only did they they got called out and reprimanded by the commissioner, but they also only ended up with the #7 pick — an outcome you are actively trying to avoid.
I don’t see how playing Emanuel Mudiay and Frank Ntilikina, literally two of the worst NBA players to ever play, 45 minutes per game is any different than what Memphis did last year.
Interestingly enough in America we have these fancy things called contacts which spell out the obligations between teams and players. And it is usually the players that abuse the situation (see Noah and J Butler recently.)
Kanter isn’t harmed a single iota if his minutes are reduced if they can’t find a deal. Everyone knows he is healthy and what he brings to the table. He gets paid and as a matter of fact if they tell him he’ll get released he’ll get an extra pro rata of the vet’s minimum from the team that signs him.
And , by the way, how was he a “good pro” when he incessantly whined to the media when he was not starting even though he was still playing significant minutes?
I don’t believe Kanter incessantly whined to the media. I think he made a few comments and then a bunch of articles were written about it because every day, no matter what happens in the Knicks world, there are going to be at least half a dozen articles written about the team and you, being a fan of the team and of basketball in general, probably read all of them or at least read the headlines and then you go onto knickerblogger, posting and toasting, etc…and read everyone’s comments about those articles and thus it creates a bubble where you think Kanter is incessantly whining about his PT when in fact he wasn’t doing that but just had a normal human reaction to being demoted.
A normal human reaction would be to look in the mirror with a little introspection. That and collect my $800,000 every other week…. when you are making 18 million a year whining is a little hard to take.
The Knicks should be doing what they think is in the long term best interest of the franchise and not give a single F+#k if a 6-11 snowflake’s feelings are hurt. The only smart strategy is to garner the highest pick humanly possible this year.
It’s not treating anyone like crap. You just have to communicate properly and manage expectations. If Rick Carlisle can do it with Dirk Nowitzki, Fizdale can do it with Emmanuel Mudiay.
And literally none of this counters anything I said.
What Chicago and Dallas did last year was cheating. They both purposefully lost games down the stretch and both were reprimanded for it. The fact that the cheating worked or that the league office has no teeth is irrelevant. Cheating is still inherently wrong even if goes uncaught or unpunished.
I understand if some people think cheating is okay since other teams do it and the league doesn’t really do anything but I don’t think that way. Ethics is more important than results so I would rather have us not cheat.
With that said I am all for moving on from Kanter, long-term he doesn’t do anything to help us tends to dominate the ball a bit and is playing in front of Robinson and Knox. I would play Vonleh and Robinson as the 5s and then Knox and Hezonja as 4s only.
I wonder whether the advent of more gambling on NBA games will force the NBA to more closely police losing on purpose. It’s improper enough that teams are losing on purpose for tanking purposes, but the appearance of impropriety with gamblers in the mix is much more dangerous.
IMO, the only silver lining to porzingis’ injury was the opportunity to have one last really sh!tty season, super high draft pick before beginning to truly build/trade/sign players summer 2021 (I honestly want no part of anyone this summer..even Durant). Don’t get me wrong, we’re all human and in the moment, the instant-gratification wins are fun. It also gives us hope that we have a good coach maybe. But it’s not what the goal should be. If porzingis turns into who a lot of us believe he can (and stays healthy), this should be our last high draft pick of this rebuild…we get one shot and we need to do all we can to make it count.
Bob, you can’t just throw out the “he makes this much money so he should STFU” argument. Its really such a cliched argument. In that case, any athlete ever should never be unhappy no matter what happens because every single one them, even the rookie on a league minimum contract, is making much more money than most of us will ever make.
Kanter is a veteran. He is better than Robinson and he’s started for us for over a year. Of course he would be upset. He’s a competitor. He never said anything bad about Vonleh or Robinson when he got demoted and his “comments” were a few off the cuff comments made to reporters after they were losing games.
Lets say you had a horrible day at work and you were contractually obligated to talk to a dozen reporters the second you stepped outside of your office and were ready to just go home. Do you think if this happened to you every day, no matter how good or bad your day was, you wouldn’t at some point make a comment that could then be interpreted as “this guy is unhappy?”
Sorry, I must have misunderstood. I thought you were saying that we should do what the Grizzlies et al did last year to get a better draft position.
Losing games on purpose definitely viscerally feels like a step too far, though I’d argue that if other teams are doing it and you refuse to do it you’re just unilaterally disarming.
Regardless, in yesterday’s thread I outlined a bunch of steps (short of intentionally losing) the Knicks could take that would be beneficial. Basically if they get rid of Kanter and Lee, try to trade THJ, and dole out minutes based on who’s most likely to have a future here I’m fine letting the chips fall where they may.
I’m not advocating outright cheating. I’m just asking why can’t you sit a young player who is playing well. Did Zach LaVine suffer long term because the Bulls made believe he was injured when he could have played?
Mudiay is tricky to manage. He’s going to be a free agent and he’s playing the best ball of his life. I get that Fizdale would be a little messed up if he benched him. For me, the point has been more about how I react when Mudiay wins a game for us. It doesn’t make me want to celebrate.
Kanter, though. Forget him. If we’re building up his value to trade him as soon as the Dec 15th guys are eligible to be moved, fine. But he should be traded, released, or benched by Christmas. I don’t want to win another game because he has a 25-25.
The fact that Marc Gasol led the Grizzlies in minutes does nothing to logically counter the argument that Memphis tanked last year. 16 players with negative BPMs played over 100 minutes for that team last year. 7 of those players played over 1,000. 1 played over 2,000.
The cheating didn’t work. The Bulls got the #7 pick which is an undesirable outcome for people that favor tanking.
Oh, I agree. I just don’t see how it’s any different than what the Knicks are doing this year. That’s what I didn’t get. I thought you wanted the Knicks to follow their model to land a better pick this year, which I think is exactly what we are doing.
It’s a lot more desirable than the #10 pick, which is where they were in the standings before they did their super-tanking at the end of last season (they got all the way to a tie for #6, but they lost the tie-breaker). They lost 11 of their last 14, but they fucked themselves with a three-game winning streak mixed in that 14-game stretch.They’d look a lot better for the future if they had Mo Bamba instead of Wendell Carter Jr, but Carter is also a lot better than Collin Sexton or Kevin Knox, so it worked in that regard.
I’m a big Wendall Carter fan so I think it worked really well for them. It was considered a 7 player draft and they made sure they were in the top 7. You don’t always have to play yourself down to the worst record in the league to correctly tank.
This year we need to be in the top 4. It’s not a failure if we don’t get Zion, it’s just a bummer. But if we end with the 6th worst record in the league and have a 65% chance of drafting 6-10 in a 4 player draft, then we’ve failed.
I have a simple question for the board. If you could redraft today, would you still take Knox at #9?
“If you could redraft today” suggests that we would have ever recommended drafting him there to begin with. 😉 This was a case where the hindsight was just sight. Thank goodness they got Robinson in the second.
I do like Carter, but I like Bamba a lot more. But sure, fair enough, the key was getting into the top 7 (top 8 if, like me, you dug Mikal Bridges – only the Knicks could pick 9th in an 8 player draft and then pass when the 8th player somehow fell to #9). I must admit, though, that while I liked SGA around #9, he looks like he might be even better than Mikal!
Same answer if you asked me: “If I could do it again, would I avoid stepping in that big pile of dog shit on the sidewalk yesterday?”
Right. Losing games last year after the KP injury was a total free roll and we should have done everything in our power to make it happen. It was free money.
I understand the anti-tankers. They are correct that you can do it other ways. They are correct that it’s often the gradual accretion of good decisions that makes a very good team rather than a Giannis type thunderbolt from the blue.
But not tanking like we meant it last year was a colossal blunder.
Vote yea on a series of polls to generate a snapshot knickerblogger consensus redraft for both 2017 and 2018. I’m probably more curious to see where Frank would go than Knox.
Ummm… the cheating worked and worked very well:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.fcgi?request=1&sum=1&player_id1_hint=Wendell+Carter+Jr.&player_id1_select=Wendell+Carter+Jr.&player_id1=cartewe01&idx=players&player_id2_hint=Kevin+Knox&player_id2_select=Kevin+Knox&player_id2=knoxke01&idx=players
They lost 2 more games than we did and finished with the 6th worst record rather than the 8th. That got them Wendell Carter
I like Frank and even I wouldn’t touch him in the top 20. He should have been a bottom of the 1st round guy.
That’s really a kick in the nuts, innit? Not only did we fail to get ourselves into ideal position two years in a row, but then we swung for the fences on upside twice and ended up with two guys who are at about the level of prospect we could have drafted if we’d been in the second round of the playoffs.
Didn’t we have the worst record in the league after KP went down and weren’t there only like 2 games difference between us and the next 3 worst teams? I remember once KP went down, Jarret Jack stopped playing right away. Mudiay, Dotson, Frank all got more burn. Kornet got burn. We had the worst record in the league. I guess KP should have been smart and gotten hurt earlier. Or is KP such an idiot for going off the first month of the year? I mean, surely he should have looked at the roster in training camp and said “you know what, I’m gonna just phone it in to start the season so we’re not too good.” What an idiot!
Yeah, wouldn’t have drafted Knox in the first place. I also would have taken WCS over KP so what the hell do I know.
Do you actually know any normal humans?
Should have just drafted Mikal Bridges, AKA “a guy who is already good at basketball.”
3-on-3 doe
The case for drafting Knox was laughably bad at the time, so with the benefit of hindsight it’s basically a sanity check.
Ntilikina’s case at the time was a little more complicated. I and some others were adamantly against it based on his statistical profile but there was legitimate hype for some reason. No matter what you think of him, I think there’s no case for him at that spot in hindsight.
No. At least Phoenix and Memphis both had worst records after KP went down.
However, the issue with the team was really what they did before KP went down (KP didn’t get hurt until February, after all). They were pushing for wins with a shitty team. And remember, with KP they were a bad team, so it wasn’t like having KP on the team was somehow keeping them from being bad. They were 23-32 when KP got hurt. They foolishly didn’t even kind of sort of tank until KP got hurt, at which point teams like Phoenix, Memphis, Dallas and Atlanta had already locked in bottom five results.
The Robinson pick and the Trier signing undid some of the damage of the bad Ntilikina and Knox drafts. But it’s pretty Knicksy for the Knicks to own two consecutive first rounders in the first time since forever and completely fuck up both picks.
I was okay with the Frank pick at the time, but I was wrong. Knox I hated from the moment the rumors started floating around.
Where would Mitchell go in a redraft? Am I a shameless homer for thinking he’s up there with Bamba and Carter?
The Knox pick made zero sense with SGA, both Bridges and Zhaire Smith on the board. It’s not fair to evaluate rookies after 20 games, but that pick looks like a genuine blunder.
Yeah, Knox might turn out to be a good player still, but it wasn’t a good idea at the time. If he becomes good, it would be a surprising result.
No, I think that’s precisely where he would go. The top of the draft would look baaaasically the same, with Robinson mixed in with Bamba and Carter and then SGA over Sexton. Knox would still go in the first round, but late first round.
The interesting question for me is where would Trier get drafted in a redraft. First round, right?
You could make a case for him being drafted as soon as 13th (Jerome Robinson) or 14th (Troy Brown Jr.).
Not sure if Mitch would go top 5 but top 10 for sure.
Gee, how do I feel about Frank…..let me think.
It’s ironic that Knicks brass thinks you can’t rebuild in NY but you can draft two 19 year old projects with no track records of production in the lottery.
Knox looks terrible but I wasn’t a big fan of any of the players available at his slot. Miles Bridges was a punching bag on this site for over a year before the draft.
Yeah, Trier in the very late lottery sounds about right.
What’s particularly funny about Knox is that SGA was his freakin’ teammate! So it wasn’t like he didn’t have a high profile, too.
I don’t think that you can tank a season away for the seventh pick and call that a victory. They may have gotten a good player, but they could just as easily get a shitty player.
Between Hardaway, Knox, and Mudiay, it’s fair to say Steve Mills and Scott Perry have a type.
If you squint you can probably see similarities in Kanter, too. Kanter is efficient and a stat stuffer, unlike the rest, but they’re all offense-only scorers who don’t pass or make anyone around them better.
I don’t think “tanking” in March and April is what we are talking about in these two threads, though. People are talking about tanking an entire season to get a #1-3 pick. For the season, the strategy the Knicks are taking looks a lot like the strategy Memphis took last year. Which is a perfectly good one I think.
I wanted Mikal Bridges or Wendell Carter Jr, and I still think we should have just drafted Mikal and went with it. I saw no reason at all for drafting Knox, hated the pick and he hasn’t shown anything to change my opinion. Of course he’ll be given time and there’s a chance he ends up like a NBA player, but he has zero NBA skills right now except maybe 3 point shooting and that’s a stretch.
I think Mitchell goes comfortably on the top 10, I would say right around where Carter went, and Trier goes around the 15 pick.
Don’t forget that the only reason the Bulls didn’t end up in the top 3 is because they dedicated a portion of their season to building up Mirotic’s trade value and then they dumped him the first second a team offered a 1st round pick. So they got the 7th and 22nd pick instead of the 4th. I’d do that, too.
If we’re building up Kanter, Mudiay, and Vonleh to flip them for picks, I will commend Mills, Perry, Fiz for this approach.
I’m not advocating not playing Kanter or Mudiay or anyone like that. But they don’t need to play 35 or 40 minutes a game either. Use a deep rotation, with Knox/Frank/Mitch/Trier/Dot getting at least 20-25 minutes every game. Sit guys like Hezonja, and don’t take out all the rooks just because it’s close in the 4th quarter.
That would be a tame version of tanking, that no agent or league exec could really complain about. And then on the front office side, try as hard as you can to trade all the non-long-term contract guys for future value. That’s all I’m hoping for.
One can only hope. Do we need to wait til February though? 🙂
It is a little painful how many solid players were taken after Frank. Bam was a pretty safe pick, Collins, Anunoby is basically a better Frank. I agree though that that the Frank pick was an acceptable gamble. Knox was just dumb. Guys with college numbers like his very rarely come right.
By the way we should prepare ourselves for the inevitable Dotson for two second rounders trade.
Through the first 14 games or so, it did. But we have gone away from it. I think it’s clear we’re actively searching for the best combination of players who can win games and trying to eke out as many as possible.
Frank driving the tank for 30 minutes a night like he was at the beginning was fantastic. Frank playing 14 minutes while Burke and Mudiay tear it up is a completely different approach.
The thing is that Kanter has been a force of nature on offense for years. I accept that he’s a league-worst defender, but he is a dominant player in the post and in the paint, albeit in an era when it’s better to be a PNR lob threat like Capela OR a stretch big like Embiid. Beating the horse to death, but he’s got everything you’d want from a center on offense in 2003.
Mudiay has a career TS% of .467 and TOV% of 16.9 at 24 USG%. Knox has been the worst rookie in the league, and therefore perhaps the worst player in the league. (I think he would struggle in the CBA, nevermind the world’s best basketball league.) Hardaway clearly belongs in the league but at about 1/3 his current salary. Throw in Burke and Trier, too: I love watching Trier’s athleticism in contesting shots and his hunger to make a big defensive play, but he still doesn’t strike me as an NBA defender yet.
But yes, I agree that it seems Fizdale and/or Perry think(s) that they can turn one-dimensional players into two-ways. That’s a scary thought when you believe that coaching provides marginal, not transformative, value.
I’m looking forward to the day. They can release him for all I care.
The 2017 redraft is actually a really fun idea. As I recall, it was considered a bad draft, which made taking a risk on Frank acceptable, but hasn’t really gone that way. I mean, even Luke Kennard is good right now! Zach Collins is balling. There turned out to be plenty of value there.
If it makes you feel any better I don’t think anyone would give us two seconds for Dotson unless they’re bottom end. He’s a 24 year old with with a rookie contract that ends next year who is a potential 3&D role player that hasn’t yet made it clear whether he’ll be anything more than an okay defender and mediocre 3pt shooter. Not saying he won’t have a career but I doubt you get more than one second for him.
Don’t sleep on Bam from the 2017 draft. He’s stuck behind Whiteside on a brain dead Miami team, but I actually think they look better with him in the game. He’s not exactly the ideal 2018 prototype but I think he’s a pretty interesting player.
Oh and one last 2017 draft point is that the Nets traded Bojam and took on Nicholson’s modest contract for the pick that got them the first rounder that became Jarrett Allen, a player I imagine would go ahead of Frank in a Knickerblogger redraft. This is the exact sort of trade that bad teams should be clawing to make.
This is true, but it was more the concept of him (a player who is available in the late lottery) than anything else that repelled people. By the time we knew where we were picking everyone had Miles above Knox.
Trading the rare second rounder that hits for some second rounders that won’t is a big part of what we do here.
Spending the rest of the afternoon doing a redraft together isn’t the worst way I can waste my time today.
Let’s do it regardless of team, just BPA.
With the first pick, it has to be Tatum or Ball, right? I’d probably go 1. Tatum, 2. Ball.
the real question today is – how do we loyal knick fans stop this knick juggernaut…
a couple of years ago, this kind of winning streak would have given me lots of joy, not so much now…somehow or another we need to transmit all our negative energy and angst to that knick locker room in detroit this evening…
no more wins for a while…wish it everyone – and, it will be so…
if we don’t end up with one of the top 5 picks next year, no doubt we are screwed…
Wait, no, I’d go 1. Ball, 2. Tatum.
After that it’s probably a Mitchell v Fox debate. Mitchell has produced by I like Fox more going forward.
I would probably dip into John Collins, Josh Hart, Kyle Kuzma, OG, Jarrett Allen before getting to the upside tier of Isaac, Markannen, Fultz, Smith.
And Jordan Bell. He is in the Collins/Hart/Kuzma tier.
I think Isaac is the kind of player who might improve a lot. I would quickly take him over Kuzma in a redraft even though he hasn’t done much yet.
First guy I mentioned #74! He’s been a gem and was an easy choice I think based on his college numbers….
@ GEO – OMG NO WE ARE NOT SCREWED WITHOUT A TOP 5 PICK.
Jesus, get a grip. We have loads of young talent and they have gotten better from even just 2 weeks ago! This is not the ceiling for this team. We have our picks going forward and cap space to bring in other players or resign some of the reclamation projects.
You guys are just as bad as the win now crowd that goes all in on signing an overpaid older former star. Seriously, you are applying the exact same logic to top picks. All we need is a top pick and everything will be solved for the Knicks. Coaching doesn’t matter! Players never get better after age 21! Players have no affect on each other and how well they play together! Everything can be deduced into neat columns of statistics and salary and NOTHING ELSE MATTERS.
Do you realize how inflexible and dumb this sounds to anyone who takes a nuance, holistic approach to team building?
Sorry to rant but its just so freaking annoying to see people deduce basketball into a simple spreadsheets and think that the knicks are screwing everything up bc they don’t follow your rules for how a perfect team should be built. Since Perry came on board we’ve done more things right than wrong and we currently have the youngest team in the NBA, all of our picks going forward, KP waiting in the wings and cap space coming up over the next couple of summers. I get people are anxious for a winning product and have been beaten down by years of losing but he angst level on this board right now is way too high compared to where we actually are right now.
I forgot about Bam.
It’s difficult for me to figure where guys like Isaac, Maarkenan, Smith, and Fultz would go. I like Isaac and Maarkenan a lot. Smith and Fultz I’m not so sure.
All I know is I’ll name a lot of players before I say Frank.
top 5 pick would be great, #1 even better… anyone do a deal for markelle fultz… ?
As of now I would probably take Fox first, then Tatum, Mitchell and Ball in a re-draft for 2017. I think Fox is the better defender of the 4, is on par with Lonzo as the best passer and so far this season has been scoring more and about as efficiently as Tatum on a similar usage. Of course that assumes that Fox is the player he has shown so far in this 20 games and that his improvement from last year is sustainable, which I really think it is.
Yeah, the only reason Fox wasn’t #1 last year was because no one knew if he could shoot. If he really can shoot, he’s the top prospect out there.
swift and abundant – didn’t you get the memo??? knickerblogger is where we all come to share all our knick related trepidation 🙂
it’s fun to give in and just let it all out…we’ve been doomed, we are doomed, we always will be – doomed…
hahahahahahahahahahahaha….
seriously though – this is one of my favorite knick teams to watch in a very long time…seeing as how only one team wins that last game of the year, and, everyone else goes home a loser…
i don’t agree with everything we’ve done, but, i’m actually pretty happy with the direction we’re going in right now…
actually, i was happy when phil came in and tried to improve the locker room (minus signing afflalo, rose and noah)…if you can’t win it all, or – even make the playoffs – at least give us some hope with young(ish) players who’ll play hard, and whom are decent humans to root for…
i really hope both knox and frank turn out to be high level contributors to our roster, they both seem like good young people to root for…
seriously let’s give Knox 0.5 seasons at least before we call him a bust? or maybe let him reach his 20th birthday?
+1000
2017 Draft:
1). tatum
2). ball
3). mitchell
4). fox
5). collins, j
6). markkanen
7). kuzma
8). and, i wish we had drafted josh hart…
man, magic did really well that draft…
@97 – I was just going to comment as a response to your first few posts that this is the problem with “statistics” over the “eye test”. If you rely totally on statistics, you’re assuming zero growth and zero change. But change is the one constant in this universe. Mudiay was a lottery pick because of his potential. The same goes for Ntilikina. Mudiay is still just 22. I am not surprised that good coaching, hard work and a positive attitude has changed things around for him.
Stats are a very strong component in predicting results – but stats aren’t everything. Heart and soul are needed.
I’m not saying he is a bust. Just that he was the wrong pick at 9.
I still like Ntilikina a lot. I defend him here all the time. He was a terrible pick at 8, though.
They were both huge projects. That doesn’t mean I don’t think they will develop. It just means they should have been drafted later.
“This year we need to be in the top 4. It’s not a failure if we don’t get Zion, it’s just a bummer. But if we end with the 6th worst record in the league and have a 65% chance of drafting 6-10 in a 4 player draft, then we’ve failed.”
Based on results so far, get ready for it.
I love John Collins and would be tempted to take him first- he’s barely played this year but last year he averaged 15.7/10.9 plus 1.6 blocks per 36 and shot .34% from three. He looks like a prototypical stretch four who’s going to be a monster pairing with Trae on the pnr. For me it’s a toss up between him, Tatum, and Fox for #1. I guess I’d go Collins, Fox, Tatum, then Mitchell and Ball. Frank would probably go in the early 20s for me.
I might take this if they are second rounders in the 30s. Dotson doesn’t have much value for us this year and is a low-ceiling player. How much is one year of cheap Dotson worth? After 19-20 he gets a decent contract and is a rotation wing player paid fairly, aka not a trade asset. For rebuilding I think you take the second rounders to push your potential assets towards years you may actually be good and hope you hit a home run with one of them.
No one said this. He just looks like an awful pick right now. His NBA play only has a little to do with that.
Again, no one has said any of this shit. It’s pretty obnoxious to mischaracterize people’s opinions and then act like you’re owning them. You don’t see anyone else going “no, swiftandabundant, it is NOT guaranteed that Knox will be an all-star, you stupid fuck.”
Not only is drafting outside the top 4 a terrible result, but take a look at who is on the draft board after the top 4. It’s a who’s who of exactly what we don’t need more of:
– Four 6’5″ shooting guards (Quentin Grimes, Keldon Johnson, Romeo Langford, Kevin Porter Jr)
– One raw, 17-year-old French prospect
– a 7’3″ Unicorn whose slim body type makes you wonder if it can hold up over the long term
You can’t make this stuff up.
https://www.si.com/nba/2018/11/19/nba-draft-2019-bol-bol-oregon-deconstructing-unicorn-gamble
In a 2017 re-draft I’m going:
1) Ball
2) Fox
3) Tatum
4) Allen
5) Isaac
6) J. Collins
7) Mitchell
8) Markkanen
9) Bell
10) Hart
11) Anunoby
12) Adebayo
13) Z. Collins
14) Smith Jr.
That was a lot more difficult than I thought and there are a few things I could probably be convinced to change. I haven’t adjusted my priors on Isaac much since he came into the NBA–I still think he’ll be a two way stud by his second contract. Ball will be such a unique player if the shot ever becomes consistent. There turned out to be plenty of productive players in this draft, many of them picked after Ntilikina 🙁
my 2017 redraft
1. tatum
2. zach collins (yup)
3. fox
4. john collins
5. Isaac
6. anunoby
7. hart (yes over lonzo)
8. Mitchell
9. smith jr
10. ball
11. bam adebayo
12. fultz
ppl think it’s not a great draft but a 50% hit rate in the lotto is about as good as you get…. and i have faith a lot of these guys will be making allstar appearances… it’s just that it was so guard heavy it takes a little longer for them to develop…
I spent some time looking at Dennis Smith’s numbers and actually I would still take Frank before him.
The guy is almost as bad as Frank on offense and that’s what he’s supposed to be good at.
2017 Re-draft
1. Ball
2. Tatum
3. Mitchell
4. John Collins
5. Fox
6. Adebayo (man crush)
7. Allen
8. Anonuby
9. Bell
10. Hart
11. Kennard
12. Smith
13. Fultz
14. Zach Collins
BTW, let’s all praise the lord we didn’t tank enough just to draft Josh Jackson.
I’ve watched Dennis Smith a lot. At the time of the draft I think I would have taken him ahead of Frank if I remember correctly, even though he’s not the sort of player I normally like. I thought he had an outside chance of being KJ, and even if he didn’t he might be the kind of guy who is overrated at a young age and highly tradeable if he didn’t get injured first.
He’s still very young, but I’ve watched a lot of Mavs games and while his shooting numbers have improved his feel for the game still looks terrible. His awareness on both ends is really poor, like Marquese Chriss level poor. As bad as Frank has been on offense I’d now rather have Frank. But that’s not saying a whole lot.
Didn’t Phil want to trade KP for the Suns’ pick to draft Josh Jackson?
2017 lotto Redraft:
1. Ball
2. Tatum
3. Jordan Bell
4. Jarrett Allen
5. John Collins
6. Fox
7. Bam
8. Zach Collins
9. Donovan Mitchell
10. OG
11. Josh Hart
12. Isaac
13. Fultz
14. Kennard
2018 Lotto Redraft:
1. Luka Luka LUKA (this guy is going to be insanely good once he loses 15 pounds of baby fat on an NBA training regimen)
2. Jaren
3. Ayton
4. Mitch Rob (!!!)
5. Bamba
6. WCJ
7. Miles Bridges
8. Bagley
9. Diallo
10. SGA
11. Mikal
12. DiVincenzo
13. Shamet
14. Trae
I don’t understand this form of masochism known as the redraft. Isn’t it painful enough living in the present of the Jim Dolan owned Knicks and worrying about what they might do this season without going back and beating ourselves up over who we could’ve/should’ve had?
But seriously, redrafts are kind of fun, but I think one should wait a good 3 years before doing so. So Frank gets another year and Knox, too, before I want to add to my woes. BTW, I was not in favor of Knox (I posted a few times about his very suspect motor).
If you read section 13 of the same link you will see there is an exception for players on the rookie scale who were drafted under the old CBA. Their salary for cap hold purposes is calculated by the previous rookie scale. I don’t know why it is there but suspect it is because owners didn’t want their cap space plans screwed up by the new CBA suddenly revaluing all their rookie scale players
Yes, their salary for cap hold purposes is calculated by the previous rookie scale, and the cap hold for Mudiay, based on using the calculations of the previous rookie scale is $12 million. Otherwise it would be even more. Same with KP.
We could counter the masochism by doing a 2015 redraft. KP would probably go 2nd even tho Turner has a great case to go ahead of him.
Turner is not nearly as good as KP. He’s not even the 2nd best center on his current team (that honor goes to KOQ). I will beat this drum until I die.
The 300% isn’t in the previous CBA, so I don’t think it applies to Mudiay’s cap hold. But reasonable minds can differ.
Actually, I do agree that there is some uncertainty on the 250 versus 300 thing. I think that there’s a chance that it is 250 instead. It’s probably not, but there’s a chance. In any event, even if were 250%, it’s still a ton of money (as in, over $10 million). It’s just a question of how much over $10 million.
At the beginning of the season I thought this was the perfect roster for the tank. Especially Kanter. “Seemingly good but actually bad”. All offense, no defense, a walking minus number. I also liked that I like him. A fucking hero. A Turkish dissident. I thought, cool, a great person to lead us to Zion. Then we say peace out and use his money on KD. But something funny is happening. Like an NBA high 26 rebound game and a plus 9 on the road against the Grizzlies. It’s like “The Producers”. We were supposed to be a flop. Ditto Mudiay, Vonleh, Burke…
So there are a few possible outcomes. These guys turn back into pumpkins soon and we still draft top 5. These guys turn back into pumpkins later and we draft top 10 (the scenario most around here dread). Or we make the fucking playoffs. If we make the playoffs do you resign Kanter?
As to the kids, they’re playing and contributing as well, despite being decidedly below average on an objective stat based level. Frank does seem to be able to guard and Knox to shoot. Fultz is presently reading a magazine at a doctors office and is Jahlil Okafor even on a roster?
My take is that I’m down to play for optimal draft position in a down year but not to force the coach to make losing moves. That’s not even fair to winning teams, you know? I’m not mad at NYK for making the most of what they have. Off the last few games I’m even down to say fuk the tank but overall I know that the shit will come out how it does. Scientists look at evidence. If you want a forgone conclusion go root for the WWF.
Not unless he’s willing to take a huge pay cut.
I’d maybe trade Knox for him? His shot is likely permanently busted.
I’m not sure what willing has to do with it, Kanter is gonna be payed a lot less next year no matter where he goes.
Yeah, but typically players find it insulting to take large pay cuts to return to their current team unless they’re super old guys who just want to stick with a team, of course. Like Johnny Damon scoffed at $10 million from the Yankees and then signed for $8 million with the Tigers. Stuff like that.
#12 – that was a good post dan…
🙂
You’d take him if they ever were willing to dump him for Lee, though, right? Lee and Knox is an interesting offer.
If they took Lee for sure. I just kinda assume nobody actually wants Lee.
Lee and Knox for Fultz is a no-brainer. The shot thing is concerning but even if that never resolves itself Fultz still has a more likely path to becoming a good player (plus rebounder, plus passer, not too horrible on d) than Knox does (plus at…nothing at all?). The question is why would Philly trade for a 33 year old Courtney Lee who has yet to log a minute of NBA basketball this season.
Although.. Knox and Lee for Fultz doesn’t work by the numbers. I think we’d need to take back two of their minimum guys as well.
Was it specifically to draft Josh Jackson? Or was it simply to have the #4 and #8 pick in that draft (and Booker).
Speaking of which, does anybody wish that Phoenix had gone for that offer? Booker +#4 for Porzingis (assuming the #4 pick wasn’t destined to be used on Josh Jackson, of course).
The rumor was that it was to take Jackson. Phil liked Tatum and Jackson a lot, and Tatum obviously wasn’t going to be there at #4.
Man, Fultz was such a good player in college, it’s crazy to not see the potential under all that crazy in Philly.
He has a much higher chance of being a star than a second round pick, Knox, or Lee, so I’d give up all three if that’s what it took.
Damn, that shooting stroke was so, so good.
Then again, New York isn’t the best place for a kid with a shaky confidence issue. But park him in Westchester for a while, why not.
Thanks geo
I feel like we keep starting Hezonja because we played fairly well in some games that Hezonja started