Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Thursday, July 24, 2014

Woj: Carmelo to Sign 5-Year Deal with New York

Wojnarowski twatteth:

[Editor's note: Here's Robert Silverman with a bit more info]

Here’s this afternoon’s #WojBomb™:

Carmelo Anthony will sign a five-year, $120 million-plus contract to return to the New York Knicks, league sources told Yahoo Sports.

Anthony considered the Chicago Bulls, Los Angeles Lakers and Houston Rockets before deciding to re-sign. He notified the other teams on Saturday that he’s returning to New York.

Anthony might still take less than the maximum $129 million the Knicks can give him, a source said.

Anthony is expected to publicly announce his return on Sunday.

Taking a tad less–even if it’s just a 9 million dollar haircut–would certainly be nice. As J-Doobs ‘splains:

We’ll have to wait until tomorrow (later today? Who knows…) to see if that is in fact the case. There have been so many half-sourced sources and weird breadcrumbs that have been reported as “news” in the Mouth of Madness that is NBA Free Agency in the Year of our Lord 2014, that it’s probably wise to wait until all the parties involved are standing in front of a plastic MSG backdrop, making nice for the cameras, and smiling and slinging easily-digestible quotes before anything is determined to be a done deal.

That said, Woj is directly plugged into the hivemind/shadowy cabal of agents, front office types, insiders and whatnot that Know Things, so (aside from the actual numbers on the contract) it’s safe to say it’s done.

What this means for the team…well…we’ll have more coherent analysis in the very near future from your Friendly Neighborhood Knickerbloggers.

Go Knicks!

139 comments on “Woj: Carmelo to Sign 5-Year Deal with New York

  1. Brian Cronin

    This was inevitable. The only thing we can hope for now is a real discount. Come on, real discount! Not having a no-trade clause would be good, too, but I doubt that will be there, so come on, real discount!!

  2. Brian Cronin

    To be fair to Melo, he never actually publicly complained about his lack of support, so I imagine he will continue to not do so if he signs the mega max. That’s something. It’s very little, but it is something.

  3. DRed

    “Hey Phil, the only other team I want to go to can offer me around 60 million for 4 years, so can I just get 130 million.”

    “Sure”

    -Zen mastery

  4. ephus

    I do not think we will learn the $$ today. As far as I can tell, the particulars of LBJ’s deal with the Cavs have not been released. Knicks did not even release the $$$ on the Cole Aldrich deal.

  5. Z-man

    I’m not sure whether “max deal” must mean $129 million. I would agree that at that number, if a no-trade clause is included, that’s not great. But if it starts out at max money, then there is a 7.5% drop, then max increases the rest of the way (comes out to something around $115-120 mil) wouldn’t that still be called a “max” deal?

    One thing I hadn’t considered: if the last year is a player option (it almost certainly would be, no?) and the Knicks are still not contenders, wouldn’t Melo theoretically want to opt out even if it cost him some $ so that he would have a chance to play for a legit contender at age 34? Unless he pulls an Amare, I guess…

  6. Z-man

    Another “rosy” way of looking at it: getting one of the upcoming true max players would almost certainly require a sign-and-trade. Is re-signing Melo without giving up any assets better than, say, signing Durant at a Melo-like price (multiple young players + #1 picks)?

    I’m just preparing myself for the worst…help!!

  7. Donnie Walsh

    Knicks did not even release the $$$ on the Cole Aldrich deal.

    I think more people will be asking about the $$$ on the Melo deal.

  8. Donnie Walsh

    Too bad we don’t know what the 5 offers are. (So we don’t know whether to be horribly disappointed or merely extremely disappointed)

  9. DRed

    The market for Melo has vanished. Giving him anything near the max is straight up stupid.

  10. johnlocke

    @Dred… They gave him an offer before the market vanished where at least 3 teams w much stronger rosters (bulls, mavs, rockets) put on full court press. What sized contract do you think we should have offered? We needed to use our no 1 asset … Dollars. Now up to Melo to choose the contract which opens up some more space in 2015.

  11. ptmilo

    $120m plus already being reported so any discount will be nominal. The Knicks may be the worst defensive team in the league next year.

  12. Hubert

    The unfortunate thing is that stars taking less than the max become a hot issue this summer. I don’t think it was ever possible to get Melo for a “discount”, and I think Phil did the best he could.

  13. DRed

    @Dred… They gave him an offer before the market vanished where at least 3 teams w much stronger rosters (bulls, mavs, rockets) put on full court press.

    And Melo chose to wait. . .and wait. So too bad. I would have lowballed him-like 70/4 and let him walk if he didn’t like it. 5 years/120 is a ridiculous overpay.

  14. johnlocke

    Bosh signed a 5 yr $118m contract, Melo wasn’t going to take much less than that. Also as a fan w you guys, but disingenuous to take significantly less money to join a weaker roster and hope, very diff from lebron and Duncan situation which had other superstars, stability, etc

  15. BigBlueAL

    Its a good thing most of you guys arent GM’s of professional sports teams. Offer a player something then immediately pull the offer and make them a new, low-ball offer once that player has told his other suitors he wasnt going with them. Yeah that will go over real well. Be serious people.

  16. JK47

    So he has his megamax. What’s the over-under on how many games before “sources” start saying Melo does not like playing in the triangle? I think 41 games is a fair over/under.

  17. johnlocke

    @DRed ….and then we’d overpay Marc Gasol or some other 1b/c “superstar” in 2015 to join a team w no star players …. Signing Melo now gets us better chance of landing another star in 2015/2016… Clear that other stars respect his game and want to play w him

  18. ephus

    Phil’s integrity is more valuable to him than any result with the Knicks, or even his job. That is the only thing he truly has. He walked away from the Bulls and the Lakers (first time) because he felt his integrity was being compromised. I cannot imagine him sacrificing it to screw Carmelo (and lose his reputation).

    It would be different if BCT had presented an exploding offer during the July Moritorium. He might have said, “Sign with us on July 10, or we will withdraw our offer and come back with something lower.” But he did not, because that ran the risk of sending Carmelo off in a snit to LA/Houston/Chicago. It also would have set up a highly antagonistic relationship with Carmelo. Some GMs do not mind having the conflict with their players (Auerbach was legendary, except with Bill Russell), but that does not seem to be Phil’s style.

    I trust Phil Jackson’s decisions on how to handle NBA personalities over those of any person on this board, including myself.

  19. DRed

    Phil fucked this one up. Melo’s not going to provide anything close to 120 million in on court production, and letting him walk would have been a much better move for the long term success of the Knicks. But that’s never been how we’ve done things. Maybe this time it will work out!

  20. er

    going to provide anything close to 120 million in on court production

    Just for shits and giggles, what would be “close” to 120 in on court production?

  21. iserp

    Just for shits and giggles, what would be “close” to 120 in on court production?

    Cole Aldrich!

  22. ephus

    There are two separate issues:

    1. Should Phil Jackson have offered Carmelo Anthony the full Max contract? I say yes, in the context that Phil did it. He gave Carmelo a cafeteria of options and told him, “If you want to be surrounded by a stronger roster, here is the sacrifice you have to make.” It appears that Carmelo elected not to make that sacrifice. Given that choice, I do not think he would have said yes to a 5/103 deal if that had been Phil’s best offer. I think the Knicks are better off with Carmelo at the 5/129 than with him walking, but I can easily see the other side of that debate.

    2. Once the full Max contract was offered, should Phil Jackson have withdrawn that offer once Los Angeles was out of the picture? I say no, and I do not think this one is a close call. Carmelo would have walked, out of pride, to Houston. Phil would have burned his reputation (who others think he is) and, more importantly, his integrity (who he knows himself to be).

    I only care about Carmelo’s $$$ to the extent it impacts the Knicks’ ability to build a winning roster. It would have been better for the Knicks for Carmelo to agree to take less. Some of the comments here seem to be dripping in antipathy for Carmelo’s financial success, independent of its impact on the team.

  23. Totes McGoats

    On one hand, I think the fact that it’s being reported that he’s “negotiating” a 5 year deal with the Knicks is good news. It shows that he’s keeping true to his word that he will sign for less if it helps the team in the city he loves compete. On the other hand, if 5/120 is indeed the deal..then 9 mil isn’t the best discount. But..when Miami is paying Bosh 118 mil over 5, then no one should expect Melo to take less than market value. Everybody knows Melo is a better player than Bosh, maybe not by a whole lot- but better nonetheless. If he’s getting 118, then Melo’s getting more. I would like his deal to be closer to 5/110, but as long as the team isn’t paying him 30 mil at age 35, i’m happy with the deal. Gotta take what we can get and losing a perennial all star is a tough pill to swallow..alot tougher than paying him 5/120. Having Melo this season is gonna make Fish’s job easier as he learns on the job. But Fish has to push the right buttons. I understand that the team wants to sell hope..but Melo CAN NOT be allowed to play 39 mpg this season when the expectations aren’t what they were coming off of a 54 win season.

  24. Z-man

    The criticism of Phil should only be based on whether or not Melo plays like a max player during the contract. All else aside, the reason Phil agreed to the max deal is because he believes that his game plan will “maximize” Melo’s game.

    Here’s probably where the optimists and pessimists part ways. Those who believe that Melo will never play like a max player because he never has won’t believe that this deal makes any sense (and wouldn’t have even at 4years/$70 million). Those who feel that Melo has played a selfish, immature, iso-centric brand of basketball because nobody of Jackson’s stature has taken him to task and believe that Jackson and the Triangle will transform his game into a superstar’s game will see the extra $10 million as a necessary evil. Well, we have the next 5 years to see how it plays out.

  25. JK47

    Some of the comments here seem to be dripping in antipathy for Carmelo’s financial success, independent of its impact on the team.

    I don’t think so. I think it’s much more a case of some of us just being really tired of watching the team make the same mistakes over and over again, and compounding their mistakes by essentially doubling down on the mistakes.

    Melo was not a max contract type player to begin with– he’s a good offensive player who does not add much value on the defensive end. But since he’s “our guy,” we’re gonna give him ANOTHER max contract, this one covering his decline phase, in the hopes that he becomes a better player in his thirties than he was in his twenties.

    Last time the team made major free agent investments, the complaint most people had was that it was not a good way to build long-term success– that it was dooming the Knicks to a very small window in which they had a chance to win. Those people were right, and by year four of the plan the team imploded, and now in year five we’re looking at another year of sucking. This time around, the situation does not look much different. The 2015 free agent class is not all that appealing, but we will probably max somebody out from that class anyway, because we gotta “win now.”

    Same mistakes, over and over again, no matter who is running the team. That’s what people have a problem with, not “antipathy for Carmelo’s financial success.”

  26. ptmilo

    Very unlikely Melo was taking a big discount, this ain’t about negotiating tactics. The market only evaporated when teams saw the writing on the wall. The problem is that the Knicks are in a terrible position if you are the kind of fan who prefers shooting to build a contender. In a good case you get a core of M gasol Melo and Calderon all in their 30s with not much else. Doesn’t sound like a contender to me or even better than Melo Iverson Kmart Camby JR that itself wasn’t a contender. When Durant comes free Melo will be 32. 32 is a risky age in the NBA, unattractive to Durant, and even guys who seem built to last like Dantley can sometimes decline rapidly at 32. If there were a 5 year futures market on conference finals or better, the Knicks might not even be in contango. And that’s from an ugly spot price.

  27. johnlocke

    @JK47… This is not apples to apples comparison of past f*ckups to the current situation. (1) This is not a max contract to a borderline has been like Steve Francis, or Starbury or Eddy Curry. (2) the choice was offer the max or lose Melo to a team w a better roster. (3) if we had lost Melo, what’s the plan that gets us to contention in the next 3-5 yrs? Hope that Durant leaves a great OKC team to come to a team w no star players? Hope that we suck enough to get lucky enough to secure a #1 pick in the NBA draft and then that this pick turns out to be one of the 10 best players in the league?

    I understand the criticisms but what I don’t see, hear or understand is a viable way of contention anytime soon wout Melo. Phil was really not in a position to be aggressive in negotiating here, he needed Melo back. Bonus: I think Melo *can* be an excellent player in the triangle.

  28. JK47

    This may be a situation where Melo is not really thrilled to return, and Phil is not really thrilled to have him at the megamax, but could be a precursor to another move down the road. It will not be impossible to trade Melo in the first couple years of that contract.

  29. iserp

    When Durant comes free Melo will be 32. 32 is a risky age in the NBA, unattractive to Durant

    Durant is coming here the same way LeBron came here in 2010. Or the same way he went this year to the best possible team, that is Phoenix, or Houston?

    It is nice to dream about drafting the next star, or signing the current MVP in FA, but that is hardly guaranteed to happen. I am not saying that signing Melo was the correct choice (we’ll see in 5 years) but i think that building a team the Dallas way is as good as building a team the OKC way or the Miami way. Dallas lost in 1st round in 2nd round of the playoffs for a while before getting their championship. Not every team can draft 1st, not every team can sign LeBron, you just have to do best about your chances. And perhaps, your best chance is to sign Melo today and sign another piece next year. And that does not mean we are short sighted or we just want to win now.

  30. JK47

    if we had lost Melo, what’s the plan that gets us to contention in the next 3-5 yrs?

    A true rebuild, in which you collect assets and players on rookie contracts, is the way to build stable, long-term success. Instead it’s always “win now” with this franchise, which is why the team always pretty much sucks. Making “win now” moves when you are not ready to “win now” is a surefire way to doom yourself to mediocrity.

    Some people, though, seem to welcome mediocrity, as it is better to them than downright awfulness. I’d rather tank for 2-3 years and have a good team for 7-8 years than try to “win now” all the time and spend most of that time waiting for shitty contracts to expire.

  31. ephus

    JK47 – your comments are all well taken. I do not think that you (or THCJ, for that matter) wish ill to Carmelo Anthony. I am pointing at the people (you can read up this thread and others for names, I do not want a flame war) who have posted that Phil should pull the offer in favor of 4/70 or such trenchant comments as “F*** Melo”.

    My guess is that the final contract is going to be 5 years/122.5. You get there by having Carmelo not take a raise between year 1 and year 2 of the contract (22.5/22.5/24.2/25.8/27.5). If you assume the salary cap is going to be 66 million next year and that the Knicks will immediately renounce Bird Rights on Stat, Ellington and Bargnani, the Knicks would have at least $17 million in space next year on July 10, 2015:

    Carmelo – $22.5
    Calderon – $7.4
    JR Smith – $6.4
    Shumpert (Qualifying Offer) – $3.9
    Prigioni – $1.7
    Larkin (team option) – $1.7
    Hardaway (team option) -$1.3
    Five cap holds – $4
    Total: $48.9

    That would be less than $1 million under the number needed to make a Max offer to the UFAs with 7-9 years experience (Kevin Love, Lamarcus Aldridge, etc.).

    In the summer of 2016, the Knicks will have more than enough cap space to make Max offers to Durant, etc.

  32. DRed

    For Melo to be worth 120 million he’s got to be one of the best players in the NBA. He’s gonna be what- the second highest paid player in the league next year? I’d take Lebron, KD, Kawhi and George ahead of Melo next year, and that’s just at small forward off the top of my head. And all of them will be making less money.

  33. massive

    Paying Melo however much they pay him isn’t the problem. You think the haircuts the Spurs core took had anything to do with the stealing Kawhi Leonard and Boris Diaw while developing Patty Mills and Danny Green? Did overpaying Bosh and Wade stop the Heat from getting Birdman and Ray Allen for peanuts compared to their actual value? Championship teams overpay players, and they also have to find a Cole Aldrich, hope TH Jr is Super Danny Green, that Dalembert and Calderon don’t fall off a cliff yet, that Amar’e keeps up his high production when healthy, etc. and none of this has to do with Melo’s contract. Paying Cole Aldrich and Dalembert minimum dollars while paying Melo a ton is what the NBA is about.

  34. thenamestsam

    The argument in favor of this that goes “what’s the alternate plan?” makes no sense to me. None of us can see the future, but plenty of teams have shown that consistently being patient, gathering assets, signing smart deals and leaving yourself with lots of flexibility is a viable path to being both a perennial playoff contender and in the mix to be more than that if you get the right breaks.

    This isn’t a disaster and there’s a good chance that if we make good moves from here we’re looking at a team that can contend in an extremely weak conference for a couple seasons. But that will have a lot more to do with those next few moves than with this one. This doesn’t feel like a step in the right direction, more just treading water (pardon the mixed metaphors).

  35. yehudi3000

    Btw, Ephus, i think phil can pull out a trade: trading smith, shump,prigioni and larkin for a team with cap.
    So we’ll only have
    Carmelo – $22.5
    Calderon – $7.4
    Hardaway (team option) -$1.3
    9 cap holds – $7.2
    Total: $38.4.
    now we’ll have around 28 mil for 2 players (+1.6 of their cap hold)=29.6 mil
    He can even trade calderon and have about 36 mil for 2 max players

  36. Hubert

    I think we’ll be ok for years 1-3 of the deal. The east will be wide open next year. Having Marc Gasol for years 2&3 makes us competitive with anyone in the east barring a love trade. We’ll probably suck in years 4&5 but hey, we have our draft picks :)

  37. Z-man

    Plenty of teams have “rebuilt” and gotten nowhere for years. Minnesota has some really good players and they have sucked for years. If the Spurs had signed Parker for the max 5 years ago, they’d still be contenders.

  38. ephus

    Broussard has tweeted that the Melo deal will be less than 129 but over 122. I am pretty confident now that the deal will be 122.5 as I set forth above (22.5/22.5/24.2/25.8/27.5).

    Don’t know if year 5 is a player option.
    Don’t know if Melo has a full (or partial) no trade clause.

    I can’t disagree that keeping the same offensive focal point as the past four years is “treading water”. I think the Triangle will take better advantage of Melo’s skills than iso-ball. I also think he is going to give it a real chance.

    Yehudi3000, I agree that Knicks could definitely move salary in order to create more cap space next year. I wanted to set out the baseline for people.

  39. GoNyGoNYGo

    @44 I’m sure Melo will get another opt-out. It works for players in the peak. If they are in decline, the opt-in. If they are still at their peak, they can extend. So in year 4 the Melo era could be over.

  40. GoNyGoNYGo

    Cleanthony Early is lighting it up. Sweet stroke. How did this guy fall to 34? I can’t wait till he fills out that 6’8″ frame.

  41. JR Sec 112

    Can someone please list all the teams that have successfully executed a complete ‘rebuild’ in the current CBA era? I couldn’t find anyone. Yeah, you can draft Durant and Westbrook, or Iverson and have a weak conference, or Tom Duncan, etc. you need to get really lucky. I’ll happily eat my words if the Sixers make the finals in 5 years. If their future is, more likely, filled with 2nd round exits will all the unwatchable games be worth it?

    Meanwhile everyone on this board thinks Melo isn’t worth anything near a max. And yet, there are obviously many (all?) NBA GMs that disagree. Perhaps they see that some of Melo’s problems have been due to his weak supporting cast.

    Given the absolute incompetence and lame duck status of Woodson last year and the lack of competent PG play, can we blame Melo for the results? And outside of last year, hasn’t Melo proven that by himself, he can take a team to the playoffs? Can we say the same about Bosh at 5/118?

    This board had an irrational dislike of Melo. It continues today.

  42. DRed

    And outside of last year, hasn’t Melo proven that by himself, he can take a team to the playoffs?

    Seriously?

  43. Z-man

    Hardaway has a look of determination about him, looks like he really wants to show that he’s improved in the tenacity department.

  44. GoNyGoNYGo

    This board had an irrational dislike of Melo. It continues today.

    Some people on this board. Not everyone.

    I am thrilled he is back. I love his game. He can get even better. The Knicks are better with him. They only have a chance with a player of his caliber on the team. If he wasn’t worth it, nobody would be putting $120M+ on the table for him. You get paid what you’re worth.

  45. DRed

    If he wasn’t worth it, nobody would be putting $120M+ on the table for him. You get paid what you’re worth.

    We are literally the only team that is offering him 120M+. Is Bargnani worth 11 million? He fucking sucks, but we’re paying him 11 million. You’re arguing that NBA teams never make a mistake in how they value players.

  46. JR Sec 112

    Melo’s teams over .500 every year but last year. Never had any good teammates. So yeah, playoffs all by himself.

    Yeah, bargani at 11m sucks and signing amare to an uninsured max deal after microfracture surgery was idiotic. But in the current NBA environment with Melo’s proven durability and performance, this was basically a no-brainer (especially if you have any hopes of getting another superstar to come later). And I’d bet every GM in the league would agree.

  47. JR Sec 112

    But I guess the next argument will be, ALL the GMs in the NBA are idiots. Of course.

  48. Donnie Walsh

    I’ll happily eat my words if the Sixers make the finals in 5 years. If their future is, more likely, filled with 2nd round exits will all the unwatchable games be worth it?

    Just to let you know, the Knicks have not been filled with 2nd round exits since the 1990s.

    Carmelo Anthony has managed to appear in the 2nd round just twice in his entire career.

    2nd round playoff exits are not the floor for the Knicks going forward. They are the ceiling.

  49. GoNyGoNYGo

    #56 – If teams could offer him $250M they would. Everyone else offered him the most they could. Bargnani wasn’t worth what we paid for him in terms of talent or in terms of money but he got that contract in 2009, before he got hurt.

  50. DRed

    Chris Anderson
    Andre Miller
    Allen Iverson
    Marcus Camby
    Nene
    John Barry
    Kenyon Martin
    J. R. Smith
    Jason Kidd
    Tyson Chandler
    Renaldo Balkman
    Chauncey Billups
    Juwan Howard
    Ty Lawson
    Amare Stoudemire

    All bad basketball players hauled into the playoffs by the genius of Carmelo Anthony. We should have given him 600 million dollars.

  51. JK47

    Melo’s teams over .500 every year but last year. Never had any good teammates. So yeah, playoffs all by himself.

    This is pretty ridiculous. In Melo’s early years he had Marcus Camby, Andre Miller, Nene, Kenyon Martin and Allen Iverson as teammates, and many of those teams had deep benches. Their best year, 2008-2009, they had a very deep and balanced team, with Chauncey Billups, Nene, K-Mart, JR Smith (who had a .576 TS% that year) and Chris Andersen. But sure, Melo “led the team to the playoffs all by himself” with has butt-kicking .532 TS% and .105 WS48.

  52. MSA

    Melo had a wide range of teammates that were allstars, DPOY, 6MOY, and “stat darlings”.

    Saying that he won all by himself is just absurd.

  53. er

    One guy makes an inaccurate statement of Melo not having good teammates in Denver an the sharks come out….haha

  54. Totes McGoats

    No point in cryin over spilled milk. The deal is essentially done. And don’t get me wrong- I do think Melo’s max is not a good value at all. So from that POV, I agree with Jowles and everyone who has the Z Lavine reaction to bringin Melo back. But let’s not get carried away and devalue the guy. Melo is and has always been an arguably top 5 talent in the league. It’s better to move forward with him than without him. That said..moving forward we need another rebounder and another defender by the time the season starts. With the exception of Melo and maybe Shump..our best rebounders and defenders are bench players. At one time Dalembert was a really good defender/rebounder, but i’m not sure we will have that Dalembert consistently. He may not even start this season. If Fish can’t give consistent minutes to Tyler, Cole, Shump, Prigs, and Dalembert- then it is imperative to somehow find a defender or rebounder to get consistent minutes in the rotation. Melo’s a fine rebounder, but he’s also 6’8″ and a career long wing who only recently began playing the 4 full time. He’s gonna need help in that department. With Melo back, the team can score with anyone if the system is adhered to. But we need another bigger guy who can defend and rebound. I think the rooks can eventually be solid defenders. Maybe not this season. TH2 also. I also believe JR is a better defender than he’s shown. Maybe Phil and Fish can get more out of him on that end. Maybe Phil can find a team in need of backcourt shooting that has a rebounding/defending PF that the can spare to flip Ellington to. Like Philly or Sacramento (Varnado or Evans). That would be nice, as it would kill some backcourt glut and add insurance at the PF spot

  55. GoNyGoNYGo

    LOL. You need great players to be great. There just ain’t that many of them so supply and demand wins.

    By the way, LeBron inked a 2-year deal with an opt-out next year. How’s that cap space holding up?

  56. BigBlueAL

    LeBron only signing a 2yr deal so of course Berman is starting the LeBron to Knicks in 2016 rumors lmao.

    Interesting tidbit I read in one of the LeBron articles saying people anticipate the salary cap for the 2016-17 season could go as high as 80mil. That would be one helluva jump.

  57. JK47

    Oh yeah, I’m sure LeBron is just gonna stick the knife in Cleveland again after this big show of humility and graciousness. He’ll be a Knick for sure!

  58. Totes McGoats

    Speaking of LBJ back in Cleveland, 2 questions:
    1. How is Uncle Drew gonna handle not being the best player on the team anymore?
    2. How are the Cavs gonna handle Waiters? He clearly couldn’t handle being behind a clearly much better player in Kyrie in the pecking order. He most certainly will not handle being behind LBJ-Kyrie-and maybe even Wiggins well.

  59. DRed

    I’m sure the Cavs are hoping to include Waiters in their swindling of the TWolves for Love

  60. Totes McGoats

    At this point Cleveland probably can only get pennies on the dollar for him. Which sucks because he is young and talented so i’m sure some team would love to scoop him up on the cheap. He needs a strong, established coach. No room in LA or San Antonio for him though. Ironically, I think Miami should make a play for him. Wade is gonna need a capable SG backing him up.

  61. DRed

    If you’re worried about rebounding, Dalmebert/Cole is a strong rebounding center rotation. The most important thing is never, ever playing Bargs

  62. max fisher-cohen

    @JR Sec 112

    A complete rebuild means what? Dogmatically pursuing the highest draft picks regardless of your situation? That’s not a strategy. It’s more of a religion.

    My definition of a rebuild s different from that of a tank. Tanking is an option in a rebuild, but it’s not a necessity. A rebuild to me means this: make moves that are likely to give you more net value regardless of where that net value exists — the present or the future.

    Here are teams that have accomplished rebuilds since 1999:

    1) Lakers: 04/05 – 06/07 primarily via Bynum, Odom, Butler –> 2 titles
    2) Boston via Al Jefferson, Gerald Green, 2007 tank -> trade assets -> stars -> 1 title
    3) Miami via tanking for Wade, drafting and developing Odom, Butler -> trading the latter two for Shaq -> 2006 title

    The knicks are dogmatically opposed to even this sort of rebuild, which is just as idiotic. It’s like saying, “well, I want to buy a house — that’s my true goal — but I really love having a nice apartment, so I’ll spend all my money to rent the nicest place I can get. If I pray hard enough, the money for a house will magically appear in my account. I’m sure of it!”

  63. ephus

    Lebron essentially took a 2% haircut on his deal with the Heat to move back to Cleveland. Cleveland will have Early Bird Rights in 2 years, so they can offer 175% of salary up to the Max. If the new media deal pushes salary cap to $80 million, Lebron could get new 5 year deal in 2016 starting at $28 million. 28/29.9/32.8/34.7/36.6 for a total of $162 million. Would be locked in before the potential work stoppage in the summer of 2017.

  64. Donnie Walsh

    The Prescient Don Walsh would like to submit this Knickerblogger archived thread dated January 19th, 2014.

    Comment #24 sees Ruruland make his now-infamous statement: “Does a guy who is reported to be sensitive to public perception not think that he will live the rest of his life in infamy if he greedily takes as much money from the biggest brand in sports while inhibiting it and its starving fans of a championship run?” and declaring: “If Melo signs the full max with the Knicks or anyone else, I’ll leave this board in shame. I’ll become a verb in the Knickerblogger lexicon as I’ll have done the anatomically impossible.”

    Comment #25 sees the Prescient One that is not Cock Jowles get it right.

  65. ephus

    Correction on Lebron math. His max raise would be 2.1 million per year.
    28/30.1/32.2/34.3/36.4

    Total would be 160.8.

  66. The Prescient Cock Jowles

    The knicks are dogmatically opposed to even this sort of rebuild, which is just as idiotic. It’s like saying, “well, I want to buy a house — that’s my true goal — but I really love having a nice apartment, so I’ll spend all my money to rent the nicest place I can get. If I pray hard enough, the money for a house will magically appear in my account. I’m sure of it!”

    winner wnner chicken dinner

    But it’s worse. It’s not praying that the money for the house will magically appear, but that somehow spending all of the money on the apartment will make the house cheaper. Or that a beautiful, undervalued house will fall into your lap at the market minimum.

    This is the dumbest.

  67. thenamestsam

    I’ll say this – when I look around the league at the top echelon of teams, almost every one of them has as their best or second best player a star player that they drafted and developed. The only real exceptions are (were) Miami, who obviously were only at their best when Wade still qualified them, and Houston. Otherwise, every good team fits the rule. San Antonio, OKC, the Clips, Golden State, Portland, Indy, Chicago, Memphis. And the vast majority of those players were selected in the top 5 or 6 picks. They didn’t all follow the same path obviously, but I think any honest reading of the evidence has to conclude that the most common path to being very good involves some form of rebuilding rather than muddling along in mediocrity and hoping to make the jump from there without ever landing a top draft pick.

  68. ephus

    Marvin Williams just got 2 years/14 million from Charlotte. No options and all guaranteed.

    1. If he behaves, JR Smith is not overpaid. He has been better at basketball than Marvin Williams every day of his life, including days he was busy untying laces. Someone would take him without a sweetener.

    2. Shumpert is going to get PAID next summer unless he falls off a cliff. He should be as valuable as Williams or Avery Bradley.

  69. JR Sec 112

    Re: MFC

    Those rebuilds all need asterix. Lakers already had Kobe, and got gasol, their 2nd best player in a sweet trade. I would hardly call the celtics a rebuild and they already had pierce. Miami got Shaq in special circumstances since Kobe and him hated each other. And they already had wade. I see no reason why the Melo signing contradicts your notion of ‘rebuild’.

    also in lieu of the potential for the cap increasing significantly in either 16 or 17, Melo will be locked in prob 4-5 mn below the new max. And therefore, assuming he is trade able and maintains his scoring ability, will be a decent asset.

    Considering all of this, vitriol regarding the signing on this site is baffling. It seems personal (towards Melo). Makes no sense.

  70. DRed

    I don’t hold it against Melo for getting paid. Not his fault we offered him too much money. He should take every cent he can get.

  71. BigBlueAL

    Its too bad that ESPN piece on Melo by Bradford Doolittle is Insider only because it basically says he is a max worthy player whose projected WARP over the next 5 years adds up to 133m worth of production. So Melo is being underpaid!! lol

    He did say though that Melo probably cant be the best player on a championship level team and that his contract might be a factor in not allowing Phil to add the proper pieces to make the Knicks a championship level team. So basically he agrees with the people who think giving Melo the contract could make it very difficult to add the proper pieces to the rest of the roster but he certainly disagrees with the people here who think Melo is just an above average player.

  72. JR Sec 112

    BBA, thanks for that. That article basically states much more intelligently what I have been trying to say. Sure, it’s worth having a healthy debate about the deal, but comparing it to the Bargnani trade/deal, the Amare deal, the Allan Houston deal, etc and calling it ‘same old Knicks’ is either idiotic or based on personal (unfounded) antipathy towards Melo.

  73. yellowboy90

    Is Dragic being shopped around, really, or is it that the Pacers are just trying to get him?

  74. JK47

    Those rebuilds all need asterix. Lakers already had Kobe, and got gasol, their 2nd best player in a sweet trade.

    And where did they get Kobe? IN THE DRAFT. They traded Vlade Divac for the pick that resulted in Kobe.

    Miami got Shaq in special circumstances since Kobe and him hated each other. And they already had wade.

    And where did they get Wade? IN THE DRAFT.

  75. JK47

    The max contract was important for Melo’s “legacy.” He may never be a guy that won two rings, but he will be a guy that got two max contracts. That will be his true “legacy.”

  76. Farfa

    Well, ok. Melo got what was offered and left some crumbs on the table. What is done is done. Now it should be personal for him to bust his ass off every single day and lead by example. Don’t be scared. We can still make the playoffs, even if this deal is probably awfully myopic. Oh and by the way, barring balls to the wall craziness from Gilbert (…), Griffin or Blatt, don’t fret over LeBron.

  77. Jack Bauer

    Yes, it would have been better for the Knicks if Melo would have taken a bigger discount, but keep 2 things in mind:

    1) If Bosh is worth 118 mil over 5 yrs then Carmelo is worth 122 mil over 5 yrs too.

    2) It will be a hell of a lot easier to recruit a marquee free agent in 2015 with Melo on the team than without him. I don’t think even the biggest critics on this board can argue successfully with that . And isn’t that the point of having cap space, to sign someone good ?? !!

  78. DRed

    I’m afraid you still just simply don’t understand the Knicks yet. They aren’t going to ask him to take less. They are going to put $129,000,000 in front of him. What’s he going to do? Say “no, I think I should only get $96,000,000?

    Ha-that really was well done Donnie.

  79. yellowboy90

    rumor mill: Cle/G.S./Minny are working on a deal

    Cle-Love

    Minny-Tristan/Klay Thompson

    G.S.- multi. 1st rounders

    That doesn’t make sense for Golden State if this trade happens Steve Kerr may have some explaining to do. I’d imagine Waiters and/or Bennent would go to G.S. too.

    SO many rumors. Who can you trust besides Woj?

  80. ruruland

    Well, was pretty sure Melo would opt and re-sign in NY all along, but disappointed he took close to the max. That was not what I heard, and of course was later confirmed by comments he made.

  81. Z-man

    re: Melo, I truly don’t think it’s either personal or idiocy for the WoW-loving/PER-hating crowd, they just don’t think he is worth the money he gets paid in proportion to the salary cap. They believe that Melo’s lack of playoff success has been predictable based on his relatively poor WS and WP scores. It is, at its core, a rational position. It’s not Melo’s fault that the Knicks were willing to gut their team of young, tradable assets and picks to sign him. Jowles, for example, has said over and over that players would be stupid not to take every penny that stupid owners are willing to pay them.

    The WoW crowd can look back and gloat that their predictions at the time of the signing have essentially come true. And now they believe that we are in for more of the same for the next 5 years. It may be infuriating to optimists like myself, but it’s hardly idiotic or personal vs. Melo (except for certain posters.)

    Melo will always be a lightning rod for this kind of discussion. If he happens to win a title, the WoW crowd will give some WP 48 god like Faried all the credit and smugly claim that they won in spite of Melo, not because of him; and if he doesn’t, the WoW crowd will blame it on both his inefficient play and his eating up valuable cap space that should go to more productive players. With this crowd, Tyson Chandler gets no blame for any of our failures over the past 3 years, and Melo gets no credit for any success we enjoyed. And as long as his WS 48 stays below .200, this will not change, ever.

    It makes for good conversation when it’s thoughtful and civil. What I don’t like is when those who differ with their opinions are treated in a condescending and dismissive manner. But hey, it’s a sports blog, who really cares? (Within reasonable limits, of course!)

  82. DRed

    Shouldn’t Minny be the one getting the multiple pics? That team is fucking garbage without Love.

  83. hoolahoop

    The criticism of Phil should only be based on whether or not Melo plays like a max player during the contract. All else aside, the reason Phil agreed to the max deal is because he believes that his game plan will “maximize” Melo’s game.

    That’s completely incorrect.
    As the GM/President, PJ’s job is to put the best team on the floor that he possibly can. So, if he’s good at what he’s doing, he won’t be overpaying players, so the capped dollars can be spent to attract the best talent available. If Melo’s best alternative is Houston at 70 and Chicago at 60, that’s the ballpark the knicks offer should have been – lower if he preferred staying in NYC, a little more if winning really mattered to him at the expense of leaving NYC.
    On the other hand, Melo’s job, like every employee, should be to give the most he can.

    @41 so your counter argument is basically that the grass is greener

    As you get older, or wiser, you realize that there are always, ALWAYS!, unexpected opportunities.

    2. Once the full Max contract was offered, should Phil Jackson have withdrawn that offer once Los Angeles was out of the picture? I say no, and I do not think this one is a close call. Carmelo would have walked, out of pride, to Houston. Phil would have burned his reputation (who others think he is) and, more importantly, his integrity (who he knows himself to be).

    For starters, he shouldn’t have given Melo an open ended offer to take his time to shop around as long as he wants. “Here’s the offer. Get back to me in 48 hours.” Secondly, considering the circumstances, maybe word would get around that if you want the knicks $$$$, grab it, or potentially lose it.
    And he should have never put that much money on the table in the first place.

  84. DRed

    Melo will always be a lightning rod for this kind of discussion. If he happens to win a title, the WoW crowd will give some WP 48 god like Faried all the credit and smugly claim that they won in spite of Melo, not because of him; and if he doesn’t, the WoW crowd will blame it on both his inefficient play and his eating up valuable cap space that should go to more productive players.

    Melo could very easily be a deserving finals MVP. We all know that for short stretches he can be the best basketball player on the planet. If Melo plays really well and we win a title I will very happily give Melo a ton of credit. 2 years ago we came fairly close to building a title contender with Melo and an almost totally useless Amare on a max deal. And Melo was better last year than he was 2 years ago. And that was with our moron coach playing him way too many minutes. So with good coaching and some health luck it’s possible he’ll be better next year. I think we badly overpaid for Melo, which is going to make it harder than it should be to build a contender, but we’re not doomed.

  85. hoolahoop

    Melo will always be a lightning rod for this kind of discussion. If he happens to win a title, the WoW crowd will give some WP 48 god like Faried all the credit and smugly claim that they won in spite of Melo, not because of him; and if he doesn’t, the WoW crowd will blame it on both his inefficient play and his eating up valuable cap space that should go to more productive players.

    While I come across here as a Melo hater, I absolutely love his game when he’s in passing/team ball winning mode. He’s right up there with Lebron when he plays smart ball. Maybe better! And I’m his biggest fan when he’s playing like that.

    Because he’s so talented, and well paid, he’s held to a higher standard. That’s why it’s so frustrating when he plays low IQ basketball.

  86. JK47

    One thing that drives me totally nuts is the idea that you can’t rebuild in New York, that the fans are impatient, and you gotta always be in win now mode. I watched the Mets crash and burn over and over and over again because they just couldn’t resist Pedro Martinez and Jason Bay and K-Rod and Mo Vaughn and Robbie Alomar and Carlos Baerga and whatever other “win now” quick fix they brought in because they believed they were just one piece away.

    The Bernie Madoff scandal was a huge blessing for the Mets, who were forced to bottom out, let all the bad contracts come off the books and invest in the farm system. They’re not contenders yet, but they’re not far off either– their W-L record is not great but they are +11 in run differential and they’re getting production from lots of homegrown players, with more on the way in the minor league pipeline. And they have tremendous payroll flexibility to boot. They’re on the verge of having sustainable success, not just a two-year window where they sort of contend followed by 5 years of 90+ losses. Sure, all their pitchers could blow out their arms and every prospect in the system could end up being a bust, but they’re finally doing things in a sensible way.

    The Knicks, however, are staying on the “win now” treadmill, building around a 30-year old volume scorer who is really a one-way player, and since they are bereft of assets and draft picks, they’re going to need small miracles to surround him with enough talent to really contend. Maybe it’ll work. Probably not.

  87. Z-man

    But hoola, you’re conradicting your point in @102. If Phil believes that he can make him consistently play the kind of ball you describe in @105, then he DID put the best player on the court for the money. That’s why I say we can’t really judge this deal until we see whether Melo fully buys in to the Zenmaster’s system of basketball and life.

    And regarding your take on how Phil should have negotiated, if he believed that the risk of losing Melo for nothing (or not enough) in return was greater than the risk of overpaying him, then he went about it the right way. I essentially agree with ephus’s take.

    I agree, though, that there was probably a way to get Melo to settle for somewhat less. The Bosh signing probably didn’t help his cause. I also think the Lakers offer of the full 4-year max was very real and would have been taken if the Knicks played hardball, and the Bulls offer was close enough that he might have gone there for 2-4 years at a lower salary or demanded a sign-and-trade where we’d get junk in return.

  88. bidiong

    Let’s just hope they can convince Melo he’s better served as a 25 10 5 guy with higher efficiency in the triangle. That’s a max money guy.

  89. Z-man

    One other thing, Jax is on a 4-year deal and is pushing 70. Teams that successfully rebuild seem to have an entrenched management in place and can weather short-term failure. Win or lose, Jax is outta here at the end of this deal if not before. Hiring him virtually ruled out the extended rebuild philosophy.

  90. ephus

    Here is my poker analogy.

    Melo is a King.

    Knicks have a gut shot straight draw.

    There is a possibility that the Knicks get their straight. It is also possible that a straight will be enough to win.

    It is more likely that the Knicks will end up with a pair of Kings, Queens, Tens or Nines. Highly unlikely to be a winning hand, much more likely to lead to investing in a losing hand.

    But it is better to have a King than a six.

  91. Z-man

    Back to that Simmons/grantland article, he talks about Jordan. LeBron, Bird, et. al. being basketball geniuses. Clearly, Melo is not on that level. I think he’s smart enough, talented enough, and now, mature enough to understand winning basketball with the right leadership. Fact is, he can’t possibly challenge Jackson’s system without looking selfish and stupid, and now, without damaging his legacy.

  92. hoolahoop

    Back to that Simmons/grantland article, he talks about Jordan. LeBron, Bird, et. al. being basketball geniuses. Clearly, Melo is not on that level. I think he’s smart enough, talented enough, and now, mature enough to understand winning basketball with the right leadership. Fact is, he can’t possibly challenge Jackson’s system without looking selfish and stupid, and now, without damaging his legacy.

    In spite of their roster dearth, that’s what’s making this one of the most anticipated seasons in recent memory. We can only hope.

  93. ruruland

    Melo should be more like 23/9/4.5-5 next year with a ts in the 575-580 range. Triangle not only creates far more passing opportunities in Melo’s sweet spots, but his passing decisions will be more like a quarterback making reads than an improviser relying on instincts.

    Melo has great passing skills but poor passing instincts. He typically flourishes as a double-team passer because the decision to pass or not is logical/deductive, not instinctive and reactive.

    The guy is a smart basketball player (according to coaches like Mike Dunlap and Tim Grgurich) who has a voracious appetite for scoring, and competes primarily through scoring, which is high effort endeavor for a guy who is rarely the fastest or best athlete on the floor (though a good athlete who is ridiculously skilled and strong)

    The triangle will be the second structured offense Melo’s played in. He’s flourished as a 4-out player his whole career (based on pnr ballhandler, pnr finisher, spot-up shooter Synergy stats), he just hasn’t always had the patience to wait for the ball to come to him as a shooter or consistently handle the ball as a passer beyond the 3-pt line.

    A mixture of 4-out and the triangle will put Melo into optimal situations every time down the floor, and he’s never had that.

    Not being considered here is Melo’s half-court efficiency. His overall efficiency is misleading, as his rate of transition plays is far far lower than the other top guys in the league.

    The Lakers under Jackson were typically average in pace, but their efficiency on offense was disguised by their pace.

    With a rim protector on defense, Melo can be the focal point of a championship caliber half-court offense.

  94. ess-dog

    So what do we have? The mini midlevel? And trading Amare’s contract would give us the midlevel, correct? Likely not worth it for this year.
    I think you have to ride out this year and bring in someone like Aldridge next year. Might have to take a risk on a young guy like Jordan Hamilton or Trevor Booker with the mini and hope you get lucky.
    Not many options!

  95. DRed

    Melo should be more like 23/9/4.5-5 next year with a ts in the 575-580 range.

    Don’t ever change bruh.

  96. BigBlueAL

    Are the Rockets really gonna let Parsons go now that they for some reason signed Ariza?? Was Ariza really the best they could do with their cap space once Bosh rejected them??

  97. DRed

    I’m still mad we traded Ariza for kuato looking Steve Francis. Ariza’s only 29. Ah well. At least we’ve got Cole.

  98. ruruland

    Hey D-Red, if Phil/triangle can shift about 10 percent of Melo’s offense away from isolation contested jumpers and into passes, those efficiency numbers are easily achievable.

    Melo’s finished at the rim better than he did his first two years in the league. His first step and second leap explosion are as still as good as anyone in the league. His 3-pt shooting isn’t going anywhere.

    Slightly altering his decision making by creating more passing opportunities will create a more efficient Melo and a slightly more efficient offense.

    Melo averaged 5.5 assists per 100 possessions when MDA asked him to be a decision-maker two years ago.

    In his wheelhouse that should be a number Melo exceeds.

  99. BigBlueAL

    But DRed, Stevie Franchise gave us that memorable moment in Washington DC when he hit the game-winning 3pter to put the Knicks into the 8th seed for 1 day which lead to Isiah’s contract extension!!

  100. ruruland

    Hey Z-man, not sure how much I’ll be around. Still lurk, but gosh the arguments never change haha

  101. DRed

    I wouldnt be that surprised if Melo hits those efficiency numbers. Playing him more reasonable minutes and running actual plays down the stretch might be enough. I think he’s going to rebound a bit less because no Bargs (I hope) and I think he’ll play on the wing more in the triangle. And I’d be happy with 4 assists.

  102. llcoolbp

    Welcome Back Ruru,

    I for one hope you stick around. Always good to have a counterpoint to any argument. I’m happy this Melo contract drama is almost over. Now the real work begins for Phil. Starting with this season. It would be a big mistake to take on any future salary. They have to try and recruit a second star in 2015 and/or 2016. The foundation starts this year with hopefully, a commitment to defense and the triangle. As always I remain cautiously optimistic.

  103. ruruland

    Yeah, it would be interesting to correlate Melo’s scoring with rebounding and passing.

    When his scoring goes down he frequently increases his rebounding.

  104. llcoolbp

    With all the money being thrown around, that’s a reasonable deal (2 years 11 mill) for a soon to be 37 year old, still somewhat efficient, paul pierce. Washington might be the second best team in the east, after Cleveland Lebroliers.

  105. Kahnzy

    Paul Pierce to Washington, now we have a reason to really hate the Wizards lol.

    Man, and I really liked them too. Oh well, guess I need to find a new 2nd team in the East to root for.

  106. Brian Cronin

    The Rockets have to still match on Parsons. Even if only to deal him for a power forward. They can’t add anyone else as good as Parsons if they pass on Parsons, so they still need to match. Parsons and Dirk on the same team would be awesome to see, though.

  107. BigBlueAL

    Just watched Fisher’s post-game press conference from today, what a difference from listening to freaking Mike Woodson. Looks like I will be listening to all the coach interviews on msg.com this season for the first time since D’Antoni was here lol.

  108. Totes McGoats

    Yea..PP to the Wiz just feels wrong. Maybe Houston, Memphis or Toronto would have been better fits. Obviously LAC is a choice but I didn’t include them because that’s too easy of a choice.

  109. flossy

    The Rockets have to still match on Parsons. Even if only to deal him for a power forward.

    I’m calling the eventual Parsons/Greg Monroe trade right now. It just makes too much sense for all sides.

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