Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Monday, April 21, 2014

What Difference Did Two Games Make, Statistically Speaking?

The Knicks have won their last two contests, and have snuck into 7th place in the Eastern Conference standings. This chain of events might have coaxed Knick fans who were on the ledge back into safety. But what do these recent games say about the team? To do so I’ll compare the Knicks stats from prior to this win streak to today. I’ll concentrate with team stats, since they are the most insightful.

The good news is that the New York offense has jumped up to the 8th spot from the 18th. Although the Knicks have improved in each of the four factors, the biggest improvement has come in free throw shooting. Getting to the line is now a Knick forte, with the 3rd best rate in the league. Although Amar’e (8.2 fta/36) and Gallinari (7.5 fta/36) power the franchise, Wilson Chandler has made the most significant strides (3.4 to 4.0 fta/36).

On the other hand, the defense has declined as New York now ranks 24th, down 4 spots from prior to the win streak and 13 spots from less than a week ago. Defense appeared to be a Knick strength, but now has become a liability. The only factor that dramatically dropped was opponent shooting percentage, which is now the fifth worst in the league behind the Kings, Wizards, Suns, and Clippers. The knee-jerk answer is that Turiaf’s injury has made New York worse on defense. However Ronny came back on the 16th, a day after the Knicks were ranked 11th. Additionally he’s started in the last 3 games, so it’s hard to explain the defensive decline on his absence. The better explanation is that the team overall hasn’t done a good job in preventing opponents from getting good looks at the rim. The strength of the Knick defense is in making opponents cough up the ball, as New York ranks 11th in forcing turnovers.

105 comments on “What Difference Did Two Games Make, Statistically Speaking?

  1. gbaked

    would the knicks having the #2 pace in the league contribute to the bad d rating (and the good o rating)?

  2. Abasi

    The numbers make sense: the Knicks play poor defense and can be a very dangerous team when the shots are falling. Unfortunately, that’s not a good long-term strategy.

  3. Z

    It’s hard to keep track of the late games, but the Knicks have won 3 straight Mike! (I thought that when you said two straight in yesterday’s post it was a typo, but maybe you really did miss one?)

  4. TDM

    Mike – any idea how long it has been since the Knicks won 3 in a row on the road? I don’t know any websites to search for stats like that.

    It seems crazy to say that 5 of NY’s six wins came on the road, and that they have won 3 in a row on the road. Especially when you consider that over the past 5 seasons, the Knicks averaged 10.6 road wins – over the past 10 seasons, only 12.4 road wins.

    Now, if they could only win at home . . .

  5. Brian Cronin

    Just for you, Todd…

    March 10, 11 and 13 of 2009, the Knicks defeated the Bucks, the Pistsons and the Timberwolves on the road. Gallo actually played in all three games. The next road game was a loss against Cleveland, which would be Gallo’s last game of the 2008-09 season.

  6. Brian Cronin

    Since the 2001-02 season, the latest in the season that the Knicks have been over .500 has been Game 31. Game 31, people!!!

    That was in 2004-05 (they ended that season sixteen games under .500).

    It would be awesome to see them over .500 at Game 32 (at Game 82 would be nice, too, but let’s not get ridiculous).

  7. Thomas B.

    Mike Kurylo:

    Pruiti is a new addition to Basketball-Prospectus, and breaks down Felton’s failure on the pick & roll.

    http://basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1287  

    (Quote)

    So Duhon/Lee was best last year at the PnR. No surprise there; Lee is awesome on the PnR. Would Felton/Lee be better than Duhon/Stoudamire. Probably since Lee sets better screens and slips to position well. Interesting. If only I had that fancy ESPN software and runnin 100 seasons with Duhon/Stat then Felton/Lee and see if either combo can be better than Duhon/Lee. Now Lee/Lee, that would be awesome. :-)

  8. Ted Nelson

    Thomas B.: So Duhon/Lee was best last year at the PnR. No surprise there

    In a sense it could be a huge surprise to everyone who has decided the only reason Duhon was solid in 08-09 and terrible in 09-10 was that teams “figured out” the pnr…

  9. d-mar

    I think the Knicks will struggle defensively against teams with size and a legit center or low post threat. Nene had a pretty strong game against us, and Bogut killed us. We were also fortunate LA had no Kaman (although he hadn’t been playing well before his injury).

    On another topic, with Amare, it’s nice to see other teams have to make adjustments defensively for a change (or not, at their own peril) When was the last time we had a player who could create obvious mismatches and pile up fouls on a string of defenders? I still don’t know how he makes those running, on-one-leg shots so consistently, but it’s a devastating offensive weapon.

  10. DS

    Per the Basketball Prospectus article: “This forces the Knicks into a tough decision. Either they spend practice time working with Felton, trying to help him develop into a solid pick-and-roll point guard, or they start going away from the pick-and-roll and start running sets that Felton excels in. They can’t continue to throw Felton into pick-and-roll situations if he keeps performing like this.”

    IMHO, Felton does not seem like a knucklehead and is both coachable and talented enough to learn through repetition to hit his rolling teammates with a good pass. It’s encouraging that he’s been a pretty good player in spite of flubbing the Knicks’ most effective weapon. i.e. there might be lots of room for the Knicks’ offense to improve… in the mean time, I like how Gallo and Turiaf have been picking up some of the slack and have been making some very good passes during the winning streak.

  11. Mike Kurylo Post author

    Z: It’s hard to keep track of the late games, but the Knicks have won 3 straight Mike! (I thought that when you said two straight in yesterday’s post it was a typo, but maybe you really did miss one?)  

    It’s been a long weekend.

  12. stratomatic

    Ted Nelson: In a sense it could be a huge surprise to everyone who has decided the only reason Duhon was solid in 08-09 and terrible in 09-10 was that teams “figured out” the pnr…  (Quote)

    I’m not so sure it was “figuring out the pick and roll” as it was Duhon not shooting well enough for long stretches to execute it properly. If the PG is not a good outside shooter, it allows the defense to adjust and take away the roll.

    This is one of the reasons I didn’t think Tony Parker would be such a great fit in this offense despite being an excellent player and why I also thought it was also important for Felton to continue his sharp shooting from last year in order for it to have a chance to become a major weapon in the offense.

    I’m actually a little surprised by the struggles because I always heard that he was good in the PnR. I didn’t watch him enough to know.

    The bottom line is that the PnR is an important part of the Knicks offensive system and you need players that have both the skill set and instinct to run it well in order to maximize the offense. So let’s hope he improves.

    I’m very satisfied with his overall production as is. If he improves on the PnR, I think we can actually consider him our permanent PG unless somehow Paul or Williams becomes available (which I doubt)

  13. Nick C.

    As someone said here or in another thread many of the issues we had seem to be addressed ie: Amare getting the ball so high, so I have hope that this is something that the staff and players are working to improve. Its kinda odd (or not) that a player from UNC and then Larry Brown woudl not have something so basic down pat.

  14. Jafa

    Nick C.: As someone said here or in another thread many of the issues we had seem to be addressed ie: Amare getting the ball so high, so I have hope that this is something that the staff and players are working to improve.Its kinda odd (or not) that a player from UNC and then Larry Brown woudl not have something so basic down pat.  

    The BB Prospectus article made it look like Felton was trying too hard on the PnR (needed to dribble a couple more times for the play to develop instead of picking up his dribble or passing it off). Also, he was trying to force passes when he should have taken the shot and vice versa.

    I think we should let Felton be who he is instead of trying to make him into Nash/CP3/William/any other PG we wish we had. Felton is not very good at PnR, does not have very good court vision, but is a good shooter, seems to make good shot selections, good at driving to the basket and hounding defenders. I hope he develops some of the skills we wish we had, but for now, I’m happy with what he’s giving us.

    Also I, for one, am happy Mike D shortened the rotation. The AR experiment can be continued when we are above .500, have injuries to the current rotation or make a trade and need him to play someone’s minutes. Totally fine with that.

  15. Ted Nelson

    stratomatic: I’m not so sure it was “figuring out the pick and roll” as it was Duhon not shooting well enough for long stretches to execute it properly. If the PG is not a good outside shooter, it allows the defense to adjust and take away the roll.

    Did you not see that link? It said that Lee/Duhon WAS THE BEST PNR COMBO IN THE NBA IN 2009-10!!!!!!!!!!!!!! “Last year’s team scored 1.28 points per possession on those plays, good for first in the NBA.” My point is that despite Duhon’s struggles they WERE THE BEST IN THE NBA on the pnr. Clearly it was not the pnr. Yet everyone has been so sure that the pnr being taken away killed Duhon.

    stratomatic: The bottom line is that the PnR is an important part of the Knicks offensive system and you need players that have both the skill set and instinct to run it well in order to maximize the offense. So let’s hope he improves.

    I don’t know that that’s the case. The Knicks have been doing pretty well without running pnr all that effectively. Yes, it would help them to be better at that play. I don’t think it’s nearly as big a deal as a lot of people make it out to be, though.

  16. stratomatic

    Jafa,

    I’m not going to be happy with taking Randolph out of the rotation until someone explains to my satisfaction how Mozgov is the better option off the bench in some spots (let alone starting).

    Mozgov is below average at reboundng, scoring usage, his TS% is very low, his defense is suspect, he turns the ball over a lot, fouls a lot, and misses a lot of assignments on both ends. The only thing he does really well is block shots.

    Randolph may look like a deer in a headlight at times and his turnovers and boneheaded plays may stand out more, but IMO he’s getting a bum rap relative to Mozgov.

    AR actually turns the ball over and fouls less often, rebounds way better, also blocks shots well, passes and handles OK, and has historically been a decent usuage scorer despite a mildly below average TS%.

    I realize there has been some debate here about Randolph’s performance on offense THIS YEAR, but I think the truth lies somewhere in between those two extremes.

    The sample size for 2010 is so darn small, I’d bet my life against a dollar that Randoph’s TS% would rise sharply if he was simply given more court time. I agree that the Knicks system (which emphasizes perimeter scoringa little more) my not be ideal for a guy with a bad outside shot and a coach that tends to give brick layers the green light, but I think with time it would work out just as we seem to be relearning shot selection with Chandler in 2010 after we already learned these lessons in 2009.

    I think Turuif should start at C and Randolph should spell him and Amare unless the other team is really big and we need more size and strength. Then I can see going with Mozgov. As of now though, I’d be hard pressed to think of a C that is less productive than Mozgov. He’s every bit as much of a project.

  17. Nick C.

    I re-lloked and while the PPP on the pick and roll was down from 1.28 to 1.15 they went from 1st in the NBa to 5th. So is that really bad or is 1.15 below the PPP on non pick and roll plays for the team.

  18. Ted Nelson

    stratomatic: Randolph may look like a deer in a headlight at times and his turnovers and boneheaded plays may stand out more, but IMO he’s getting a bum rap relative to Mozgov.

    I agree to an extent, but I think you have to look at why Mozgov is out there. He’s out there as a defensive anchor. Help defense is about more than just blocking shots. AR has not really demonstrated the ability to play the 5 defensively, which is due at least in part to never having the chance.

    Mozgov has been slow to rotate at times, foul prone, extremely unproductive, etc. so at some point D’Antoni probably has to re-examine that stance.

    Mozgov has averaged 10.4 MPG the last 3 games, though, so at this point it’s not an enormous deal. If he continues to play poorly and AR earns minutes you have to figure they flip-flop.

    I don’t see why above .500 is the time to play inferior players as Jafa implies, though. Not that I think AR is an inferior player to Timo.

  19. stratomatic

    Ted Nelson: Did you not see that link? It said that Lee/Duhon WAS THE BEST PNR COMBO IN THE NBA IN 2009-10!!!!!!!!!!!!!! “Last year’s team scored 1.28 points per possession on those plays, good for first in the NBA.” My point is that despite Duhon’s struggles they WERE THE BEST IN THE NBA on the pnr. Clearly it was not the pnr. Yet everyone has been so sure that the pnr being taken away killed Duhon. I don’t know that that’s the case. The Knicks have been doing pretty well without running pnr all that effectively. Yes, it would help them to be better at that play. I don’t think it’s nearly as big a deal as a lot of people make it out to be, though.  (Quote)

    1.28 per possession is impressive, but it doesn’t tell you what it would have been if he wasn’t throwing up bricks and allowing the defensive PG to come under the pick and avoid the switch as often.

    IMO there is no question that Duhon’s bad shooting stretches early in the seasonwere hurting the execution of the PnR last year even if it remained an effective weapon overall. I have no ability to guage the impact, but if he was shooting 39% from 3 instead of 35% (which was much lower for a stretch), and better overall from outside perhaps the overall per possession stat for the PnR would have been 1.35 or 1.40 because Lee would have had better opportunities.

    I agree that the offense is doing well without it, but if you have a coach whose system is very geared towards it, taking away the #1 weapon is not a good…

  20. stratomatic

    Ted,

    I agree about the defensive issues with AR at C, but he did play some C for GS. As I said, I think if we are playing one of the teams with a PF/C type player playing the C, he can play with Amare. We don’t’ have to limit him to playing with Turiaf. If we are playing a team with a legitimately tall, strong etc.. C, then Mozgov is the better otion for now.

  21. gbaked

    stratomatic: I’m not going to be happy with taking Randolph out of the rotation until someone explains to my satisfaction how Mozgov is the better option off the bench in some spots (let alone starting).

    I think you have to look at what those min will give the player. Mike D has stated many times that he doesnt like to give players few min a game, because they cant get into the flow and it can end up hurting them as players (stat wise… which contracts are based on) and as a team (players trying to do too much in little time).

    I think the 2nd part of that is why Moz gets time and AR does not. Moz NEEDs to get time in American Ball. He just has never played in it, and those 10 min can help him learn about the speed of the game and the physical nature of it. Its not the same for AR. He gets 10 min and instead focuses on trying to win the game in that time. Splitting it up gives each 5 min, which is prob not enough time for anyone to do anything.

    Case in point is the Clipper game. Lets say that was AR that got dunked on (over?) by BG. For Moz it hopefully served as a wakeup call and learning experience. If that was AR in there? I feel like he may have had a breakdown right there on the court.

  22. Ted Nelson

    stratomatic: 1.28 per possession is impressive, but it doesn’t tell you what it would have been if he wasn’t throwing up bricks and allowing the defensive PG to come under the pick and avoid the switch as often.

    IMO there is no question that Duhon’s bad shooting stretches early in the seasonwere hurting the execution of the PnR last year even if it remained an effective weapon overall. I have no ability to guage the impact, but if he was shooting 39% from 3 instead of 35% (which was much lower for a stretch), and better overall from outside perhaps the overall per possession stat for the PnR would have been 1.35 or 1.40 because Lee would have had better opportunities.

    You are ignoring my point and just making yours. My point is not that people said the pnr was ineffective last season because Duhon was ineffective. It is that people continue to say that Duhon was ineffective last year because the pnr was ineffective. Since the Knicks were the best team in the league at the pnr that reasoning seems faulty at best.

    stratomatic: I agree that the offense is doing well without it, but if you have a coach whose system is very geared towards it, taking away the #1 weapon is not a good…  

    I’m just not that worried. The Knicks haven’t seemed to make it much of a priority. They didn’t do it much in the pre-season (if at all) and then at the beginning of the season they were going with more of a pick-hand-off-stand-around-like-idiots-till-Amare-turns-it-over approach than a real pnr. Guys are now getting the ball in good spots and moving the ball and shot distribution has been split about how you’d like the last few games. A tough defense like Charlotte might be a rude awakening, but hopefully they can stick to their game-plan and get through the game.

  23. Ted Nelson

    stratomatic: he did play some C for GS. As I said, I think if we are playing one of the teams with a PF/C type player playing the C, he can play with Amare. We don’t’ have to limit him to playing with Turiaf.

    I definitely agree about not playing him with Turiaf. And overall I also think he should get another crack at it at some point. Especially if Timo continues to underwhelm.

    GS was the 29th defense in the NBA last season, though, and only slightly better in the minutes AR played. Perhaps D’Antoni has seen enough in practice to decide teams will take advantage of AR at the 5. I tend to agree that he should get a chance at some point, though.

    gbaked: Moz NEEDs to get time in American Ball.

    gbaked: Its not the same for AR. He gets 10 min and instead focuses on trying to win the game in that time.

    I think you may have a point, but I don’t think it has anything to do with nationality. Timo is a more understated offensive player, whereas for whatever reason AR feels like he needs to shoot the ball a ton. Last season his usage rate was 24, this season it’s 19.5 despite not being able to hit the backside of a barn. Mozgov has been equally horrible, but mostly done so within the offense. I put at least some of that on D’Antoni, though, without knowing what he’s actually told the players. As an outsider I would just say to tell AR to stop shooting so much–as would just about everyone–but maybe D’Antoni has tried that and was unsatisfied… who knows…

    gbaked: I feel like he may have had a breakdown right there on the court.

    He’s…

  24. gbaked

    Ted Nelson: think you may have a point, but I don’t think it has anything to do with nationality.

    I dont mean to to really be about nationality. More about differences in the style of play between Russian ball and NBA ball. Its on thing to see Garnett on TV, another to have him banging into you (pause). AR got to experience that already, its a totally new thing for MOzzie.

    Ted Nelson: I don’t see why above .500 is the time to play inferior players as Jafa implies, though. Not that I think AR is an inferior player to Timo.

    I think its honestly Mike D fearing for his job a little and needing to win some games to shut up the medias call for his heads. With Dolan in charge, you have no idea how he will react to radio screaming how he has to go. So he needs to get this team to a point where that stops (a solid 500 record for most of the season should do that). then you can experiment. If he plays AR now, and they lose some more close games… he may not have a chance to make up that ground.

  25. nicos

    I wonder what the ppp on P & R has been over the last 7-8 games- if it’s 5th in the league now it must have been pretty good lately considering how awful it was early on. Also- I think people tend to undervalue how good a finisher inside D Lee was- Amar’e may be better but it’s close and Duhon, for all his shooting woes was a terrific passer on the P & R so I’m not surprised there’s been some slippage. That said, it’s a timing/chemistry play-maybe we ought to give them more than 14 games before passing judgement on their ability to run it. They’re averaging 1.15 ppp on the P&R and as their total average is 1.06 it’s pretty hard to say it’s not working at all.

  26. nicos

    Also, I think some people think the only successful outcome of a P&R is a dunk by Amar’e- it’s just as successful if Felton scores off it or if leads to a wide open jump shot on a kick out.

  27. d-mar

    I think what mitigates our inability to run the P and R is some excellent passing by Turiaf, Stat and Gallo, among others. Some teams have been throwing a zone at us, and Turiaf has done a great job flashing to the middle and feeding passes off of that. I’m also pleasantly surprised at Amare’s passing; for that period where he was a TO machine, it just seemed like he put his head down and barged to the basket. Lately, he’s been making good decisions and finding open men.

  28. ess-dog

    I don’t think the p&r has to be our bread and butter the way it was in Phoenix for Nash/Amare. First off, the bulk of our points should be off of transition. In the half court, some teams are just really good at defending the p&r when there is a lot of zone used (Bobcats for instance.) This is where the mid-range shot is helpful (Chandler?) and the drive and kick (Felton to Gallo et al.)
    A zone will have to choose between sagging on Amare or getting up on our shooters.
    It will be interesting to watch how we react in these next games against the Bobcats.

  29. Ted Nelson

    gbaked: I dont mean to to really be about nationality. More about differences in the style of play between Russian ball and NBA ball.

    Yeah, I just used nationality to sum it up… I don’t think it has to do with the difference that much. If Timo can’t earn minutes, he can’t earn minutes. I don’t think the transition totally explains his struggles: other European veterans have come over and not struggled so mightily. The thing is that Timo was not even an elite player in Europe. He has played against NBA players internationally as well as former and future NBA players in Europe. I think not jacking it up every time he touches it and being a huge 5-man are why he’s playing over AR. Maybe some attitude components too, but I have no idea.

    gbaked: With Dolan in charge, you have no idea how he will react to radio screaming how he has to go.

    This is a guy who re-signed what was already the consensus worst GM in basketball… I don’t see much history of being reactionary to the media. His family runs nothing but monopolies. I think it’s as much Walsh’s call and I think D’s got the season.

    gbaked: o he needs to get this team to a point where that stops (a solid 500 record for most of the season should do that). then you can experiment.

    A. Why is AR more of an experiment that Timo? AR has actually had a good amount of NBA success for his age. Timo has been just awful.
    B. If it doesn’t help you win games when you’re under .500, why would an “experiment” be expected to help you over .500? If he’s doing what he thinks will win games, why would he suddenly decide that’s not what wins games when his team wins a bunch to get over .500?

  30. Jafa

    Ted,

    You asked 2 questions:
    1. Why is AR more of an experiment that Timo? Don’t know, by my guess would be offense. Timo hurts you less on the offensive end. Timo eFG% is .412 vs. AR’s .276. TS%? .456 vs. .323. If Felton was a good PnR PG, Timo would be scoring more on offense, and he rarely does dumb things with the ball (like take a shot from way outside his range or barrel through somebody going to the basket for a charge or look like he dosen’t know what and where he is supposed to be during offensive sets, etc). AR is a better defender, shot blocker and rebounded, but what he gives up on offense sometimes nullifies his impact.

    2. Why wait until your above .500 to play him? If your Mike D and your team is at .500, you are probably at least the 6th seed in the East and taking a lot less heat from the NY media and fans, with some not even expecting you to make the playoffs. You probably also have a rotation that has gelled well and is playing well together, with players well accustomed to their roles. Experimenting with AR by giving him minutes at this time gives you limited downside risk and unlimited upside potential:
    - team not under enormous pressure to win, so AR’s mistakes can be taken is stride more easily (like when he played a lot in pre-season: no pressure, let him play)
    - players feel you are committed to winning and not just playing a favored player (by benching him right now)

    Not saying there is a science to this, but seems more logical to me.

  31. iserp

    Ted Nelson: B. If it doesn’t help you win games when you’re under .500, why would an “experiment” be expected to help you over .500?

    Well, an experiment is, by definition, something unknown. You can get a very positive result or a very negative result. If you have some target (.500), you can wait to be near your target to start experimenting, so you don’t lean too much on the negative side. Call it a conservative approach. Till, the moment the ‘AR experiment’ hasn’t been too good.

    I think D’Antoni has a lot of pressure from the fact that people (and the media) are expecting the team to be around .500 (early in the season, i must say). I am pretty sure that D’Antoni would like to play Anthony Randolph 20-25 minutes a game; but the media can be a distraction for the team if they don’t win; and also, many losses can undermine the confidence of our players. Don’t forget that STAT has already called out the team after the losing streak; if your newly acquired star becomes nervous about the state of the team, maybe you have to do something about it, even if it’s at AR’s development expense.

  32. Frank

    Ted Nelson:
    Did you not see that link? It said that Lee/Duhon WAS THE BEST PNR COMBO IN THE NBA IN 2009-10!!!!!!!!!!!!!! “Last year’s team scored 1.28 points per possession on those plays, good for first in the NBA.” My point is that despite Duhon’s struggles they WERE THE BEST IN THE NBA on the pnr. Clearly it was not the pnr. Yet everyone has been so sure that the pnr being taken away killed Duhon.I don’t know that that’s the case.

    I have a sinking feeling that this is going to start another flame war between me and Ted — but is seems like the 10 exclamation points used in Ted’s post is a bit over the top for what was ONE unqualified sentence in the linked article. 1.28 PPP is nice, but it doesn’t really tell us anything. As far as I am aware, a possession is basically defined as an action that results in either a shot, free throw attempts, or turnover (minus ORebs). What is not tracked in “possessions” is all the things that happen before that. So if a team runs the PnR play 4 times in 1 24 second clock and no shots go up as a result, and the final shot that goes up is an 1-on-1 isolation, as far as I can tell there were no PnR possessions on that play, even though it was run 4 times and resulted in zero points. This seems to be the exact definition that BP is using in the linked example, since it appears the PnR has only been run in “16.6% of the Knicks possessions” by his calculations, even though by D’Antoni’s own words the PnR is 90% the basis of the offense.

    So the 1.28 PPP on PnR between Duhon and Lee really only tells us the result when a shot went up as a direct result of the play. And what it DOESN’T tell us is how many times Duhon couldn’t make the pass because the D was taking it away. Duhon’s lack of confidence in his shot probably actually makes the PPP look better because he took (and missed) fewer shots, decreasing…

  33. Ted Nelson

    Jafa: Timo eFG% is .412 vs. AR’s .276. TS%? .456 vs. .323.

    Check out the TO%, though. Both their ORatings are awful… At least with AR you have a reason to know he can play better in the NBA: he has.

    Jafa: he rarely does dumb things with the ball (like take a shot from way outside his range or barrel through somebody going to the basket for a charge or look like he dosen’t know what and where he is supposed to be during offensive sets, etc).

    ? He turns it over 1 out of every 3 times he makes a play… I’d wouldn’t call that rarely…

    Jafa: AR is a better defender, shot blocker and rebounded, but what he gives up on offense sometimes nullifies his impact.

    Timo is god awful on offense, too, though. I think Timo is out there largely because of his defense and doesn’t try to do too much. I don’t think he is any less of an experiment, just a better fit in D’Antoni’s mind.

    Jafa: If your Mike D and your team is at .500, you are probably at least the 6th seed in the East

    That’s at the end of the season, though. You can’t worry about that 15, 20 games into the season. Totally irrelevant, really. Remember when Dolan extended Isiah because the Knicks were the make-believe 8 seed? How dumb was that? And you definitely can’t coach to the media in NYC.

    Jafa: AR’s mistakes can be taken is stride more easily

    Again, Timo makes as many or more mistakes, so I don’t buy it. It doesn’t seem logical to me at all. He’s benching AR because…

  34. Ted Nelson

    … he doesn’t think he gives them a chance to win, whether they are .500 or not.

    iserp: Well, an experiment is, by definition, something unknown.

    AR is not that much of an experiment, though. He’s had two semi-successful NBA seasons when healthy. You know what he gives you and what he doesn’t. Timo, on the other hand, couldn’t even start for his Russian team… that is a total experiment D’Antoni has no problem sticking with despite being under .500… So, I think it’s more logical to assume he thinks playing Timo helps the team win given his fit in the rotation and playing AR does not help the team win. I’m not necessarily against that. Could argue either way. I like the short rotation, though, and don’t really care if it’s Timo or AR or whoever getting 10 MPG.

    iserp: Till, the moment the ‘AR experiment’ hasn’t been too good.

    Neither has the Timo experiment, though. This whole thing started based on “why is he playing Timo and not AR?”

    iserp: I am pretty sure that D’Antoni would like to play Anthony Randolph 20-25 minutes a game;

    Based on what? Why is he playing him zero, then? And Timo 10?

  35. Ted Nelson

    Frank,

    You can nitpick all you want. I don’t have time to count every single thing that happens in every single NBA game and have already told you I will not be doing that any time… ever.

    They ran a lot of pnr and were THE BEST in the NBA at it as a team. People have constantly gone on and on about how Duhon was so god awful last season because teams were able to stop the pnr and that made him miss open shots and lay-ups unrelated to the pnr in some magical and mystical way. Being the best pnr team in the NBA would suggest the Knicks were not that bad at the pnr. If you have some evidence to suggest otherwise, please present it. Your speculations do nothing to convince me. When you test a drug and all the evidence points to it working, do you fail it because some doctor has some completely unsubstantiated hunch that they have made no effort to prove?

    You have failed to answer my question Franko… When you do medical trials, are you legally required to test every single individual on the planet or do you take a representative sample and base your results on that? I cannot count everything that happens on the court, but I can look at stats as a representative sample of what’s going on.

  36. Ted Nelson

    Frank,

    I’m going to get you a nice book on statistics so you can stop being a jerk and realize that it is a science of projecting based on samples and incomplete information.

  37. latke

    Degree_Absolute: twitter

    Yeah, I read somewhere though that his mobility has been pretty bad (post-surgery Allan Houston comparisons).

    From watching the games, my impression has been that Mozgov has gotten himself into position to score more often than Randolph. He gets to the rim on the P&R or simply from moving without the ball. His problem has been finishing these plays. As often as he scores or gets fouled, he commits a charge by lowering his shoulder, brings the ball down and gets stripped, or allows himself to get pushed out of position and takes a bad shot.

    This, to me makes him appear closer to being a solid offensive player. If he can just flip the ball in from three feet away, rather than lowering his shoulder, he’ll score more often and more efficiently. Likewise if he can simply keep the ball high so guards can’t get in for the strip. He’s 7’1″. It’s not exactly rocket science for a 7’1″ guy to be able to get a good shot when he catches the ball right at the rim. He should learn.

    In addition, on the few occasions that Mozgov has spotted up in the 12-15′ range, he has made some shots, whereas AR has been unable to (even when the defense completely ignores him). I know it’s a small sample, but you have to pick one guy or the other, or else you risk hindering the development of both of them. Right now, neither has done enough IMO to deserve minutes, so I can’t doubt D’Antoni’s decision.

    Regardless, we all know that Turiaf will get hurt again, and that will open the door for AR to play. It’s up to him to show take full advantage of that opportunity.

  38. Frank

    Ted,
    It appears you have resorted to the “they ran it a lot and were the best” defense, basing your argument on one sentence which is unreferenced and unexplained which in itself uses a stat which may be of uncertain relevance to this particular discussion. It may be that they were the best at PnR when David lee actually got the shot up but I’d ask you to actually give me reasonable, not name-calling, non-condescending answer as to why what I wrote above isn’t right.

    And in response to your question about trials- I am obligated to be as sure as I can that the endpoints I choose are relevant and that the conclusions I draw from the data are not overreaching. That is, if a medication works great in a sample of 200 white adults, it doesn’t mean I should give them to children or even to black or Asian adults. So yes, you do need to test or at least straitify your analysis for many different subgroups. You can then use those subgroup analyses to try and extrapolate your findings to a wider population, but even so, confounders can complicate analyses that were not planned for in the original study design. In other words the devil is in the details, which is why one sentence of findings is never enough, regardless of how many !!!!!!!s are behind it.

  39. nicos

    Ted- I actually think Frank may have a point- if they only count P&R’s that lead directly to a shot attempt the fact that when Duhon couldn’t get the ball to Lee he’d back it back out and run something else could skew the numbers. If a P&R run by Nash/Stat resulted in a shot say 75% of the time and one by Lee/Duhon only 40% of the time then that should be factored in- maybe it was, I don’t know but as Frank said, the Knicks ran a lot of P&Rs last year which never resulted in shots because Duhon wouldn’t shoot. Still, Lee did manage to average 20ppg at a TS% of .585, a good chunk of which was on the P&R so no matter how you count it, you’d have to say it was very successful.

  40. Z

    Ted Nelson:
    Based on what? Why is he playing him zero, then? And Timo 10?  

    I think that Walsh promised the Russian monster that owns Timo’s freesom that he’d play 10-15 minutes a game, fouls permitting. Maybe Walsh’s surgery wasn’t for his hip. Just sayin’…

  41. Robert Silverman

    Some credit should go to D’Antoni — in the last three games, he’s clearly gone away from Felton as the primary ball-handler and Amar’e's (side note – that’s way too many apostrophes to have to use in one word if one wants to remain grammatically correct) efficiency has skyrocketed. Having Turiaf/Fields/Gallo run the halfcourt offense from the high post has made a huge difference.

  42. Z

    Hmm– where’s that “edit your own post” feature again? The above was supposed to read: Russian MOBSTER, not monster. (damn iPhone auto-correct!)

  43. rama

    #49 Robert: “Some credit should go to D’Antoni — in the last three games, he’s clearly gone away from Felton as the primary ball-handler.”

    I agree. I’ve said that this season is on D’Antoni; he’s been given a decent and deep team with complementary strengths, so their success will rest more on his shoulders. He needs to get them to play together, he needs to identify their abilities and enhance them, he has to identify their weaknesses and work around them. So far he seems to be doing that – which isn’t clear only from what we can see on the court but also because he talks about the same issues in interviews…including having other players involved in distributing the ball once he saw that it wasn’t working with Felton.

    He obviously has flaws as a coach, but he is far from the inflexible pedagogue many people have believed him to be. He has shown this season and last that he can adjust to the abilities of his players. I’m hoping to see that he’s melded this group into a team by the trading deadline or so. I still expect a few more losing streaks, but to me, there’s no point in gauging his success until at least that point.

  44. Ted Nelson

    Frank,

    It appears you don’t read my comments and just see what you want to see.

    Logically: The argument presented is… The Knicks were not able to run the pnr effectively; therefore, Chris Duhon had a career worst type of season. When it is then pointed out that the Knicks were able to run the pnr effectively the basis of this argument falls apart.

    I understand your point about the context around that number. However, is Chris Duhon such an ungodly AMAZING PG that he knew exactly when not to force the pnr while other PGs did not? Were the 2 less FGAs he took/36 the difference between effectively running the pnr? The same factors came into play for other teams. So, basically you are arguing that the Knicks are a tremendous outlier (had the most success with the play and were 17th in offense, but were actually horrible with it overall) and Duhon is the best decision maker in the NBA… And you feel no need to prove that with a single bit of evidence to show that I am wrong. You can merely posit that I must be wrong… See the problem there? You MAY be right. However, what are the chances? It is reasonable to assume based on the info that we both have that if the Knicks ran the pnr more effectively than any other team in the NBA, the effectiveness of the pnr was not the only reason Duhon was so awful last season?

    Frank: So yes, you do need to test or at least straitify your analysis for many different subgroups.

    Again, Frank, this quest to prove I’m an idiot is old. I specifically said “a representative sample.” So, yes, you are agreeing with me. Thanks.

    I am not going to write 1000000 pages of footnotes every time I site a stat on this blog. I would appreciate it if you try add to the conversation rather than pointing out every time I don’t count the number of screens set on a possession.

  45. Ted Nelson

    nicos: if they only count P&R’s that lead directly to a shot attempt the fact that when Duhon couldn’t get the ball to Lee he’d back it back out and run something else could skew the numbers.

    I realize there is a chance Frank is right. My point there is that this would make the Knicks an outlier. An extreme example. Chances are that if you run a play very effectively that is not the only reason someone struggled for the season. Frank is determined to prove I know nothing about stats and should never cite them unless I am 100% certain (… of course this is not the case and you can’t really be 100% certain of much, hence half the commercials for Frank’s drugs being filled with how they may make you bleed internally, etc.). However, he offers no evidence to refute the stats I cite. Just, well, if this and this and this and this happened, you could be wrong. He honestly said that I cannot use AR’s GS stats because the new system might lead to his taking 80% jumpers when no D’Antoni bigman has taken that many.

    I also realize that for probably more than one reason Duhon was AWFUL last season. My point is that for months people have been preaching that Duhon’s struggles were all about the pnr. I just wonder why struggling with the pnr would make the guy miss shots completely unrelated to the pnr. Wide open lay-ups, open jumpers… Miss them at a higher rate than before. I wonder how he survived in Chicago without running 90% pnr. How the pnr made him shoot career low FT%.
    People have also argued that teams adjusted 1/2 way through the previous season. But Duhon’s stats late that season were still much better than last season…
    My point is just that people can’t say it was all pnr with any certainty. Yet, again, Frank wants to spit at stats and call me an idiot.

  46. Z-man

    Wow, I’m shocked that so much cerebral energy is being squandered on discussing why Duhon sucked so badly. Sounds like two stodgy medical examiners squabbling over the cause of death for a town drunk who smoked four packs of chesterfields a day and ate nothing but fried butter and bacon.

    Why can’t we all agree that he sucked because he was slow of foot, a lousy shooter, and was over his head as a starter? Even if it is conceded that he was good at the pnr, the bottom line is, he was a limited player at a crucial position and a liability to the team on most nights.

    If Duhon was more effective than Felton at running the pnr, and the stats say he was, then he must have been REALLY worse at just about everything else. I would also guess that Felton will get somewhat better at the pnr as he continues to work with it and analyzes film under D’Antoni’s tutelage. It the Knicks are still 5th in pnr efficiency even with Felton’s supposed ineptitude, I can live with it.

  47. Thomas B.

    Hey lets change the subject. How about we talk about…oh, I don’t know..the Knicks maybe? :-)

    ESPN power rankings have the Knicks 21 with the following to say:

    The committee was holed up in Gotham when a two-game winning streak inflated Knicks expectations. Can only imagine how unrealistic some folks will be now after three straight road wins over some West lottery teams.

    What seemed odd to me was that three road wins over West Lottery teams–and GS really has a shot not to be–is nothing to get too excited about, but had the Knicks dropped all three games, they would be ranked no higher than 28. So you are saying that we should not get excited about three wins but its okay to panic if the same three games were dropped? I’ll never understand why Stein hates the Knicks so much.

    Hollinger sees the team about the same putting them at 22 on his stat driven ranking list.
    http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/powerrankings/_/page/2

  48. Robert Silverman

    Z-man: a town drunk who smoked four packs of chesterfields a day and ate nothing but fried butter and bacon.  

    Hey, don’t knock it ’till you’ve tried it!

  49. Frank

    OK….deep breath in, and release. Deep breath in and release. And I’m better.

    Anyway, I was a little surprised to see the poor ranking also — a 3-1 trip on the west coast with 4 games in 5 days is nothing to sneeze at. Haters will be haters I guess, and the last 10+ years seem to have built up a lot of hate.

    How does everyone feel about Hollinger’s use of point differential as such a big component to decide who is best? Is a Miami blowout win against crap teams so good that it cancels out close losses to good teams (or Memphis)? I don’t know the history of this kind of stat well, but it seems quite BCS to me.

  50. latke

    “On the other hand, the defense has declined as New York now ranks 24th, down 4 spots from prior to the win streak and 13 spots from less than a week ago.”

    I wonder how much this has to do with the fact that they are playing more up tempo. Isn’t it possible that a fast paced game naturally leads to both teams scoring more efficiently? Even if you get out on the break more, you’re also going to turn it over more, have more long rebounds that lead to opponent fast breaks/easy buckets as well. As a result, opponent’s points per 100 possessions may make fast paced teams look weaker offensively. For example, if you could give away 5 breakaway layups/dunks to your opponent on the condition that you would get 6 back, you’d do it any time, right? Even though it will raise your opponent’s TS% and points/100 possessions? That seems to me the kind of thing that D’Antoni ball does.

    I’m not saying the defense is great, just that it may be a little better than the stats we’re looking at tell us. That would also explain the decline in defensive ranking — we finally started to truly push the ball, and that has helped opponents’ efficiency; it’s just helped ours even more.

  51. cwod

    Frank:How does everyone feel about Hollinger’s use of point differential as such a big component to decide who is best?Is a Miami blowout win against crap teams so good that it cancels out close losses to good teams (or Memphis)?I don’t know the history of this kind of stat well, but it seems quite BCS to me.  

    I’m pretty sure it correlates very well to eventual wins/losses.

  52. latke

    Frank: How does everyone feel about Hollinger’s use of point differential as such a big component to decide who is best? Is a Miami blowout win against crap teams so good that it cancels out close losses to good teams (or Memphis)? I don’t know the history of this kind of stat well, but it seems quite BCS to me.  

    The heat had three straight games where they won by 20+ points, an average margin of 27 points. One of those games was against Orlando. Those games are about to start cycling out of the heat’s “last ten” computations, starting with the magic game. Once that magic game cycles out, the L10 SOS and margin will drop significantly, and the Heat will drop a good deal in Hollinger’s rankings.

    That loss tonight is pretty embarrassing. 77 points?

  53. Frank

    Robert Silverman: Some credit should go to D’Antoni — in the last three games, he’s clearly gone away from Felton as the primary ball-handler and Amar’e’s (side note – that’s way too many apostrophes to have to use in one word if one wants to remain grammatically correct) efficiency has skyrocketed. Having Turiaf/Fields/Gallo run the halfcourt offense from the high post has made a huge difference.  

    Was just looking at Turiaf’s stats and they really are amazing. Do you guys realize he has the #5 assist rate in the NBA, one spit ahead of one Chris Paul?

    http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics/_/sort/assistRatio

  54. Thomas B.

    latke: I’m not saying the defense is great, just that it may be a little better than the stats we’re looking at tell us.

    Well Latke, that all depends on what stats and the sample size. If you are talking raw data, then please throw that out. The pace the Knicks play isnt considered in raw data. I suggest a look at the four factors available on this site. 14 games in and I think the numbers are either telling the truth or very close to it. And after a long day of numbers crunching, why not relax in style with an all cotton T-shirt from the KB store? It makes a great gift too.

  55. Z

    Frank: How does everyone feel about Hollinger’s use of point differential as such a big component to decide who is best?   

    Since power rankings are useless, who cares how they are derived at? The BSC rankings actually effect the season, right?

    It’s like worrying that charitable giving totals on a tax return are a major factor in deciding who wins the Citizenship Award. It may not be the best way to decide who the nicest person in the league is, but since nobody really cares who’s nice and who’s a jerk, who cares how it’s awarded?

  56. Frank

    Z:
    Since power rankings are useless, who cares how they are derived at? The BSC rankings actually effect the season, right?It’s like worrying that charitable giving totals on a tax return are a major factor in deciding who wins the Citizenship Award. It may not be the best way to decide who the nicest person in the league is, but since nobody really cares who’s nice and who’s a jerk, who cares how it’s awarded?  

    Lol fair point!

  57. Z

    cgreene: Kind of insane to see what’s going on with the Heat.They are a mess.  

    Yeah, wow. D Wade scores 3 points on 1-13 shooting, 0-4 from 3, 1-5 from the free throw line. That’s got to be one of the worst 37 minutes of basketball in NBA history. Worst single line ever?

    (Meanwhile, in opposite news, Pau Gasol last night goes 10-10 from the field and 8-8 from the line for a single game TS% of 1.036)

  58. latke

    Thomas B.:
    Well Latke, that all depends on what stats and the sample size.If you are talking raw data, then please throw that out.The pace the Knicks play isnt considered in raw data.I suggest a look at the four factors available on this site.14 games in and I think the numbers are either telling the truth or very close to it.And after a long day of numbers crunching, why not relax in style with an all cotton T-shirt from the KB store? It makes a great gift too.  

    haha, I bought an obey mozgov shirt already! Hopefully, come the heat/knicks game, I’ll be relaxing in style in it at MSG.

    I tried to support my hypothesis with data, but I basically proved myself wrong. There is no correlation this year between combined pace and combined TS%, or combined pace and opponent’s TS%. The same is true for the Suns in 04/05 (fast paced team) and for the
    Hawks last year (slow paced team), which is weird to me, because you’d think a running team would shoot better in a fast paced game and even if the opponent shot the same, the running team’s improvement would make there some sort of correlation…

  59. Z-man

    Robert Silverman:
    Hey, don’t knock it ’till you’ve tried it!  

    Touche. Hey Robert, did you read flossy’s recap of the knicks-warriors game on P&T? At first I thought it might be you under a pen-name, but the CPP (cussin’ per post) exceeded your career average…

  60. Robert Silverman

    Z-man:
    Touche.Hey Robert, did you read flossy’s recap of the knicks-warriors game on P&T? At first I thought it might be you under apen-name, but the CPP (cussin’ per post) exceeded your career average…  

    I did. Not me but I dug his style.

  61. Ben R

    One choice that the Knicks are making on defense is they are overplaying to get steals and blocks and keep the offense off balance. When it works it’s a turnover or a block when it fails it’s an easy score. That would help explain the high opponent efg%. I actually thinks it’s a pretty good strategy because it helps create offense for the Knicks and keeps the pace of the game fast.

    It’s kind of like those Colts teams a couple of years ago. Great pass rush and a small defense to either create turnovers and sacks or give up big plays. Either way it got Manning back on the field quickly.

    As for Mozgov vs Randolph, I would prefer to stick with Mozgov. He was much better in preseason and is a better fit at the 5. I think alot of Mozgov’s problems is nerves right now, he looks tight, he has a short leash, I’m sure he’ll figure it out.

    Most of what D’Antoni has to go on with these players is in practice. Maybe Randolph is not getting the offense down and is still playing outside the offense during practice. Selfish play is contagious and if he goes out there and overdribbles, clogs ball movement and chucks bad shots it can disrupt the entire offensive flow much more than a Mozgov gaff.

    Remember Randolph played in a loose 1 on 1 system in GS it’s going to take time and coaching to get him to break his bad habits.

  62. Peter87

    Frank:
    Was just looking at Turiaf’s stats and they really are amazing. Do you guys realize he has the #5 assist rate in the NBA, one spit ahead of one Chris Paul?http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics/_/sort/assistRatio  

    Interesting…of course, have to notice that the much maligned (on this blog) Duhon is #3, only behind Rondo and Kidd.

    Am I the only one to find Ted Nelson annoying, repetitive, and irrational? I find that overuse of !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! and ????????????????????? is statistically correlated with weak arguments ;-)

    How about a way to let users block specific posters from appearing?

  63. Peter87

    iserp:
    Yeah, also http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics?position=pg&sort=turnoverRatio&order=true&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fnba%2fhollinger%2fstatistics%3fposition%3dpg%26sort%3dturnoverRatio%26order%3dtrueDuhon is #2 there, hehe  

    Looking at this statistic, I notice that all the ‘good’ pg’s (Rondo, Kidd, Nash, Curry…) are near the middle of the rankings; the extremities are populated (mostly) by lesser knowns. This makes me wonder what this measure is actually useful for.

  64. Nick C.

    BigBlueAL: Not to mention Duhon’s TS% of .411 lol  (Quote)

    Hahahaha. Wasn’t Duhon third in the league a weeks or two ago? I guess that must have been just below the threshold for that article by Berri (?) (linked in connection with Fields) about 10 or so games being enough to project out for the season.

  65. Brian Cronin

    Looking at this statistic, I notice that all the ‘good’ pg’s (Rondo, Kidd, Nash, Curry…) are near the middle of the rankings; the extremities are populated (mostly) by lesser knowns. This makes me wonder what this measure is actually useful for.

    While I agree that there is not a lot of difference between most point guards, I think it is useful enough to show both those point guards who are particularly bad at turning the ball over and those who are particularly good at it.

  66. rama

    Peter87 – when Ted calls people “jerk” or “asshole,” yes, he’s annoying, but there are quantitative analyses being made, so I find his arguments interesting…initially, at least. But as Doug said, Mike puts on a character limit, and Frank and Ted just do multiple posts. Oh well.

    As for Duhon being #3, look at his other stats – like, for instance, that he’s the only player on that list with NEGATIVE value added. Ouch. Yes, he can assist, but that’s about all he can do.

    As opposed to Chris Paul, who stands out in the opposite way: he’s either first or second in EVERY SINGLE CATEGORY. What a phenomenal player.

  67. Abasi

    Am I the only one to find Ted Nelson annoying, repetitive, and irrational? I find that overuse of !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! and ????????????????????? is statistically correlated with weak arguments ;-)

    Agree.
    Ted is too deep into statistics and tries to find the truth in them, but basketball is much more than that and the numbers don’t always tell the truth, as evidenced by the quoted stats where Duhon is ahead of the League’s elite point guards.

    Simplicity in analysis and writing is always the best and most considerate path.

  68. Z

    Peter87: Am I the only one to find Ted Nelson annoying, repetitive, and irrational?I find that overuse of !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! and ????????????????????? is statistically correlated with weak arguments   

    I think Ted is the Wilson Chandler of KB posters. If he could just cut down on the !!!!!! and ????? he’d be much more useful to the team :)

    It’s an easy fix. The analysis and arguments are always solid. It’s the tone that irritates at times. If Chandler can adjust, so too can Ted, right?

  69. Peter87

    Z:
    I think Ted is the Wilson Chandler of KB posters. If he could just cut down on the !!!!!! and ????? he’d be much more useful to the team :)It’s an easy fix. The analysis and arguments are always solid. It’s the tone that irritates at times. If Chandler can adjust, so too can Ted, right?  

    :D:D OK, well, since I still have high hopes for WC, I guess I’ll give Ted another chance too. Still, I think we should track his progress with some advanced stats, like eIR (effective insight ratio) = #interesting insights / character count

  70. Sandy

    Abasi:
    Agree.
    Ted is too deep into statistics and tries to find the truth in them, but basketball is much more than that and the numbers don’t always tell the truth, as evidenced by the quoted stats where Duhon is ahead of the League’s elite point guards.Simplicity in analysis and writing is always the best and most considerate path.  

    have to disagree. I read this blog everyday, but do not post much and find myself gravitating to Ted’s post because they offer the most meaningful/substantiated insight in the blog. keeping it coming Ted.

  71. Nick C.

    Its not cool to call out someone who is a “serious” poster. Ted is not some troll or quasi troll or lunatic like we have had in the past with Clydepolice or the dude that got kicked to the curb last month, much less a repetitive rambler like IS always bringing up the same questionable analogies.

  72. taggart4800

    Here here Nick C.
    Agreed that the dismissive tone was a little annoying, however surely a blog such as this is a place for healthy debate? It definately got out of hand but the arguements often included statistical analyses, which i might add, is really the foundations for the credibility of the site. I myself am far too lazy to search the stats of different players, but i am always interested when posters do take the time. However, complete disregard for factors laying outside the parameters of statistical analyses is also wrong. In the immortal words of the Black Eyed Peas ‘Where is the Love?’. I am from England so correct me if i am wrong but i believe it is Thanksgiving for you guys sometime soon, enjoy!

  73. Abasi

    …statistical analyses is really the foundations for the credibility of the site…[snip]However, complete disregard for factors laying outside the parameters of statistical analyses is also wrong.

    Excellent point.

  74. ess-dog

    Ah, ‘Clydepolice’… I almost miss that guy he was so insane.

    I’m not sure I even know what we’re talking about any more but I’m excited to see us play the Bobs – wish I was going. Even though they aren’t playing well I think it will be a good test for us after playing some poor defensive teams out west.

    Btw, put me on record as saying the Indiana is for real and will make the playoffs this year!

  75. chrisk06811

    I have a stupid idea.

    Mosgov is foul prone. So is Turiaf, but Turiaf is incredibly flexible. AR can’t get in the flow.

    What if we START AR for a few games, see if he gets in the flow better being on the floor w/ the first team when the game begins. Plan to give him 6 mins at start of 1Q and 3Q, then take it from there depending on how he plays. Tell Mosgov he’s getting 15 mins, so don’t worry about fouls, just play. Turiaf gets all the mop up.

    Is it a horrible idea? I think it’s only horrible if MD is sincerely not playing AR due to his lack of game right now impacting his confidence and therefore his development.

  76. ess-dog

    chrisk06811: I have a stupid idea.Mosgov is foul prone.So is Turiaf, but Turiaf is incredibly flexible.AR can’t get in the flow.What if we START AR for a few games, see if he gets in the flow better being on the floor w/ the first team when the game begins. Plan to give him 6 mins at start of 1Q and 3Q, then take it from there depending on how he plays.Tell Mosgov he’s getting 15 mins, so don’t worry about fouls, just play.Turiaf gets all the mop up.
    Is it a horrible idea?I think it’s only horrible if MD is sincerely not playing AR due to his lack of game right now impacting his confidence and therefore his development.  

    Doubt that D’Antoni would start AR at center.

    Also, 2 POINTS from the Heat bench last night. Haha! Great “team”…

  77. Jafa

    chrisk06811: I have a stupid idea.Mosgov is foul prone.So is Turiaf, but Turiaf is incredibly flexible.AR can’t get in the flow.What if we START AR for a few games, see if he gets in the flow better being on the floor w/ the first team when the game begins. Plan to give him 6 mins at start of 1Q and 3Q, then take it from there depending on how he plays.Tell Mosgov he’s getting 15 mins, so don’t worry about fouls, just play.Turiaf gets all the mop up.
    Is it a horrible idea?I think it’s only horrible if MD is sincerely not playing AR due to his lack of game right now impacting his confidence and therefore his development.  

    I still think the reason Turiaf and Mogov are getting burn is that they don’t hurt the team on the offensive end. When the ball is passed to them, they usually look to pass it off to the PG or open player and only take shots within their range. They don’t try to dribble (Felton’s job) or create (STAT and Gallo’s job) or do anything forced, because they know there are out there for defense and easy buckets on offense (see Fields).

    You are suggesting that we take minutes away from Turiaf to give AR some court time. I want Turiaf on the floor as much as possible, and only off the floor for a breather or for Chandler to enter the game and give us another dimension. The only question is, those 10 to 15 minutes, should they go to Mosgov or AR? Right now, Mosgov is getting them, and, as I see it, AR has to show that he is a better option than Mosgov out there to get those minutes.

  78. Jafa

    Re: Ted Nelson

    I think we should all leave Ted alone. Ted gives great insights, utilizes advanced stats frequently and isn’t afraid to challenge other opinions.

    Does he go too far sometimes? Yes. Are his posts long? Yes. Do his posts seem to analyze everything you say? Yes. Are his points mostly valid? Yes. Does he make it personal? Not most of the time.

    I’m one of those people that love to read what others post, and will post a comment occasionally. Ted is the opposite, thus balancing the force that is “Knickerbloger”. So all in all, I’d rather have Ted posting on the site that not.

  79. Frank O.

    Go easy on my friends, Ted and Frank.
    Both guys have helped to make this blog as interesting and challenging as it is. I find myself in agreement with each of them more often than not. I confess I have had some epic disagreements with Ted in the past, but I almost always feel the better for the discussion…although he’s still wrong about N8 the Gr8…:)
    I suspect a recent debate between Ted and I led to Mike instituting a character counter. :)
    Sadly, it may be my greatest contribution to knickerblogger.net. :)

  80. cwod

    Speaking of Nate, he has had two great games as the starter in place of Rondo.

    38 points (21 pts/36), 12 assists, 7-11 3PT, and only two turnovers (65 minutes).

  81. Nick C.

    cwod: Speaking of Nate, he has had two great games as the starter in place of Rondo.38 points (21 pts/36), 12 assists, 7-11 3PT, and only two turnovers (65 minutes).  (Quote)

    Didn’t they lose to Toronto scoring sub 80 pts and Nate with 2 assists…was what I was going to leave it at snarky Nate hater that I was, but I see they killed Atlanta and he had 10 assists. and furthermore the Toronto loss, IIRC they got killed in the 2nd Q and lost by 1 point so if the subs were in for much or some of the 2nd Q it may not even be on him in the least.

  82. d-mar

    How about the Spurs with only one loss so far? IMO Popovich is the most underrated (and probably best) coach in the NBA, his teams always play fundamental, disciplined basketball and bring it defensively. I know some will argue that any coach could be successful with Duncan, but it’s more than that, his teams just execute and rarely beat themselves. I might put Sloan into the same category also,

  83. Z-man

    Z: I think Ted is the Wilson Chandler of KB posters. If he could just cut down on the !!!!!! and ????? he’d be much more useful to the team :)It’s an easy fix. The analysis and arguments are always solid. It’s the tone that irritates at times. If Chandler can adjust, so too can Ted, right?  (Quote)

    Ouch! Considering Ted’s history of Chandler-bashing, this had to hurt!

    Honestly, I give Ted props for his thorough responses to posts here and he is perhaps first among those who keep the action on this back-up-your-shit-with stats blog moving. We have had our heated disagreements, and I have had issues with his tone from time to time, but for the most part I find even his snarkiest posts at least thought-provoking, as opposed to the mindless drivel that pollutes many other sports blogs.

    What I find do annoying is when new guys stumble in, know nothing of KB’s history, and have the audacity to call for censoring the mainstays. They may be a-holes, but they’re our a-holes!(!!!!!!!!!!!)

  84. Z

    Z-man:
    Ouch! Considering Ted’s history of Chandler-bashing, this had to hurt!   

    Honestly, didn’t mean to degrade Ted’s contributions. I was supporting him! And anyone who has made it through one of his tomes has come out more knowledgeable about basketball for it, myself included many times over.

    In fact, sometimes when I’m debating issues outside of this forum I feel my inner Ted Nelson start to roar, and I know I’m doing well when it does. (My only real complaint about him is that I wish he would laugh at my bad jokes instead of pointing out how they’re factually incorrect.. :)

  85. Z

    …and I hope this sudden and unnecessary referendum on Ted doesn’t chase him off. We lost him for a few months two seasons ago (courtesy of a certain horse from Italy who shall remain nameless) and the conversation took a hit during his absence.

  86. Brian Cronin

    I would have replied earlier, but it seemed weird to post “I don’t think it’s cool to talk about Ted like this when he’s not even in the discussion,” as that would, in and of itself, be sort of like talking about Ted when he’s not even in the discussion.

    That said, while I am not saying that you are affected by any of this, Ted, in case you are, like Z said, don’t go!

  87. Peter87

    Z-man:
    What I find do annoying is when new guys stumble in, know nothing of KB’s history, and have the audacity to call for censoring the mainstays.They may be a-holes, but they’re our a-holes!(!!!!!!!!!!!)  

    I’m not so new, you can check the history; I just don’t post very frequently.
    Plus, I did not call for anyone to be censored, just to have a mechanism so that each person could filter out posters of his/her choosing. I am strongly against censorship, and was surprised at the ‘booting’ of the ‘fire D’antoni’ guy; I didn’t think he was so out of line to merit that.
    Please also note that I did not call Ted an a-hole, or any other ad hominem attack. I simply stated that I did not care for the content of his posts, he may be the greatest guy in the world.
    At any rate, if I offended anyone, including you Ted, I apologize. You seem to have the respect of the blog, so perhaps I was wrong. Can I just ask as a personal favor that you don’t overuse “!” and “?”? (I don’t want to put any fixed limit; may I suggest a geometrical distribution with roughly a .1 p of adding another punctuation mark ;-)

  88. Z-man

    Don’t sweat it, Pete. I am certainly not anointing myself the “conscience” of this blog and have had my share of trollish moments. My “a-hole” reference was totally tounge-in-cheek, and in no way was meant to accuse you of saying it. Your apology, while appreciated, was unnecessary. I do think that “filtering out posters” is somewhat akin to censorship, and that privilege should rest solely with the blog host, i.e. Mike K. Why not just skip over any post Ted makes w/o reading it? Furthermore, if you blocked a particular poster, especially one with Ted’s stature, what about the responses to Ted’s posts posted by others? They wouldn’t make much sense w/o the original post.

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