Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Saturday, November 1, 2014

Western Conference Seeding Scenarios

I’ve taken a look at the possible draft scenarios, so let’s now take a look at the other fairly confusing bunch of scenarios, the seeding scenarios in the Western Conference.

Seven of the eight teams in the NBA Western Conference have one game remaining (Hornets have two).

I’ll give you the two most likely scenarios, and then I’ll explain the various tie-breakers (and where each team stands, because there are quite literally far too many unlikely possibilities to address).

IF ALL TEAMS WIN OUT (except Spurs win the only head-to-head among the eight teams, against Jazz)
#1 Lakers
#2 Hornets
#3 Spurs
#4 Jazz
#5 Rockets
#6 Suns
#7 Mavericks
#8 Nuggets

IF ALL TEAMS WIN OUT (except Jazz win the only head-to-head among the eight teams, against Spurs)
#1 Lakers
#2 Hornets
#3 Jazz
#4 Suns
#5 Rockets
#6 Spurs
#7 Mavericks
#8 Nuggets

So as you can see, that game against the Spurs and Jazz is extremely important.

Okay, otherwise, here are the notable tie-breakers:

- Lakers own the tie-breaker over New Orleans and San Antonio, either together or separate, so the only way the Lakers can lose the #1 seed is if they lose their game and New Orleans wins both their games.

- Denver owns the tie-breaker over Dallas, so Dallas, who is one game ahead of Denver, has to stay one game ahead of Denver to assure them of the #7 seed. This is going to be difficult, as Dallas plays New Orleans in their last game, while Denver plays Memphis. Still, if New Orleans beats the Clippers and the Lakers beat the Kings, the last game won’t matter for New Orleans, which would help Dallas.

- If New Orleans and San Antonio lose out, we’ll see a stunning FIVE-TEAM tie!! The Hornets, Spurs, Jazz, Rockets and Suns would all be tied. In this scenario, you determine the division winners first, and they get the #2 and #3 seed, respectively, which would be the Jazz at #2 and the Hornets at #3. The Suns would then win the tie-breaker between the remaining three teams, and the Spurs would win the tie-breaker with the Rockets.

So that’d give us an astonishing:
#1 Lakers
#2 Jazz
#3 Hornets
#4 Suns
#5 Rockets
#6 Spurs

This is extremely unlikely, though, as it involves the Clippers winning a game, which is not going to happen, but hey, who knows for sure?

Here are the head to head records for the teams that could be tied:

Utah
3-1 or 2-2 Spurs
2-1 Houston
2-1 Phoenix
3-1 New Orleans

New Orleans
1-3 Utah
2-2 Spurs
4-0 Suns
2-2 Houston

Houston
1-2 Utah
2-2 Spurs
2-2 Suns
2-2 Hornets

Divison Record: 8-8

Spurs
1-3 Suns
2-2 Houston
2-2 or 1-3 Utah
2-2 New Orleans

Divison Record: 10-6

Phoenix

3-1 Spurs
2-2 Rockets
1-2 Utah
0-4 Hornets

In any event, the first two scenarios listed are the only two likely ones, but we shall see!!

Here are the remaining scheduled games:

Lakers (56-25)
Tue, Apr 15 Sacramento

Hornets (55-25)
Tue, Apr 15 LA Clippers
Wed, Apr 16 at Dallas

Spurs (55-26)
Wed, Apr 16 Utah

Jazz (54-27)
Wed, Apr 16 at San Antonio

Rockets (54-27)
Wed, Apr 16 LA Clippers

Suns (54-27)
Wed, Apr 16 Portland

Mavericks (50-31)
Wed, Apr 16 New Orleans

Nuggets (49-32)
Wed, Apr 16 Memphis

14 comments on “Western Conference Seeding Scenarios

  1. Danis

    Id love to see Lakers v Suns, Spurs v Mavs, Nuggets v Hornets and Rockets v Jazz in an ideal scenario.

  2. maxq

    nice analysis, Brian. just feel bad for golden state though. also your knicks. hate seeing unutilized talent

  3. The South Florida Fan

    As citizens of the NBA, it falls on the rest of us to help Save the Sonics! I beg you to please post your team/owner’s information with the following. Thanks!

    We Miami Heat fans have put together a proposed plan of action here: http://thesouthfloridafan.blogspot.com/2008/04/how-to-help-seattle-keep-their-sonics.html

    It involves this:

    IMPLORE EVERY NBA TEAM BLOG TO POST THE ADDRESS OF THEIR OWNERS. IN ADDITION, LETTERS SHOULD INCLUDE SOMETHING LIKE THIS:

    “As a form of protest, we vow to boycott any game next season in which the Oklahoma City Sonics play, whether it be in our arena or watching it on television.”

    Spread this around as much as you can. It’s going to take the other teams to prevent this from happening. Let’s save the Sonics!

    (E-mail your local newspaper too. This is of vital importance)

  4. caleb

    “a dig through the archives would find one good Knickerblogger threat from fall 2008.”

    …er, that would be thread, not threat. a dig through the archives would find several dozen good threats.

    BUt this is the one I was talking about…
    http://www.knickerblogger.net/index.php/2007/09/13/do-players-improve-when-given-more-minutes/

    And a couple other good ones…
    http://www.knickerblogger.net/index.php/2007/09/17/one-more-nail-in-the-anti-per-minute-arguments-coffin/

    http://www.knickerblogger.net/index.php/2007/11/08/bp-more-per-minute-analysis/

  5. bfellow

    BILL SIMMONS HAS STARBURY IN MVP Ratings!
    Ok, 450th best player this season but he also has a frightening parallel of Penny Hardaway and Dwayne Wade.

  6. Ray

    I dont eally want to talk about playoff scenarios for other teams…whats the use? We need a seasons over what do you think will happen next thread

  7. tastycakes

    Tied for 5th worst record in the league. Great. Same record two years ago, we sent the 2nd best # of ping pong balls over to Chicago. Hard to believe 4 teams were WORSE than the Knicks this year. If we had honestly tanked, we’d be behind Minny and Memphis for sure.

    Here’s hoping we get lucky ..

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