Common sense also tells me that often when a coach you hate sporatically gives you a few minutes on the court you’re more likely to be uncomfortable, jittery, and play poorly than when you’re an established started getting consistent minutes.

Common sense once told people that the earth was the center of the universe, then we did some research and found out that this was very unlikely to be the case. I don’t think this is nearly as clear cut a case–and don’t know whether productivity increases or decreases with minutes played–but I think it’s worth it to do some research to find out what actually happens rather than guessing based on hypotheticals (“if he?s a bench player who generally only plays limited minutes with and against other reserves, increase in minutes will likely lead to a decrease in stats”).

So far, I think the research suggests that if nothing else productivity doesn’t decline significantly with minutes played. This also seems to be common sense: a guy who plays 20 mpg and gets 10 reb/40 isn’t likely to get 6 reb if he plays 40 mpg. He might get 9 or 11, 8 or 12, and some factors like improving, aging, teammates, coach might come into play.

What you do have to do is use some common sense when analyzing per min stats. The fact that Sweetney couldn’t get off the bench in Chicago doesn’t change the fact that he’s been a very efficient player. When he was a Knick I could have told you the odds were stacked against Sweetney ever being a quality starter even when looking at his per minute stats. I saw an undersized, fat, slow guy with lots of basketball skills, but very limited run-jump athleticism.

I don’t think the point of this article was you can determine everything with per minute stats, just that per minute stats can paint a more accurate picture of a player’s ability than per game stats alone.
I know the analogies are never dead on, but I’ll try anyway. Let’s say I tell you one guy had 50 hits this season and another had 100 and asked you which one’s a better hitter. You might say the guy with 100 hits.
If I told you that one guy was 50 for 150 while the other guy went 100 for 600, you’d likely change your answer because you were looking at a more complete picture.

Yes but none of the studies have found this to be true. You should read the three links in the “extras” section that point to the different studies regarding this.

“If he?s an energy guy, for instance, he may be better in short spurts.”

All the players in this study were carbon based life forms. No energy beings were used.

To really predict whether a player’s stats will improve with more minutes, you should consider how that impacts the quality of the teammates he plays with and the opponents he faces. For instance, if he’s a bench player who generally only plays limited minutes with and against other reserves, increase in minutes will likely lead to a decrease in stats. If he’s a starter who happens to play very few minutes (mostly with and against other starters), than an increase in minutes may improve his stats.

Another thing to consider is the player’s role on the team. If he’s an energy guy, for instance, he may be better in short spurts.

Troll me once shame on you. Troll me twice shame on me.

While there probably IS more variation in offensive ability, than defensive ability (making offensive stats more important), in general I think we undervalue the importance of defense – a difference of a block or two per game, doesn’t start to measure the different impact of these players.

p.s. It’s foolish to think this undercuts the value of per-minute stats. In a league of hundreds of players, over many years, it’s not hard to find exceptions. The overall picture is clear, and has been well documented and discussed here.

lol

ALO – I am with KB. What is your point?

Totally– he’s the Dave Kingman of the NBA.

But baseball has a role for guys like that (an entire league even).

“Crawford showed under Brown that he is capable of being an above average performer in the NBA. Hopefully, he gets back there.”

Crawford has shown in fleeting moments that he is capable of doing some pretty damn amazing stuff with a ball and a hoop. Those moments continue to infuse hope into a career that is getting away from him. At this point, “an above average performer in the NBA” would be a realistic, helpful-to-the-team goal.

http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-28-121/Searching-for-Stephon-Marbury.html

Dan Gadzuric and Mike Sweetney are very similar cases, despite completely different bodies and styles of play. Someone should soon arrive at the proper conclusion as to why both of these players failed to reach their potential.

Would you use per-minute statistics to compare a 34 MPG player to a 37 MPG player?

Do studies that conclude that per-minute rates remain static relative to playing time include players like Dan Gadzuric and Mike Sweetney? Or are players of this type excluded because they never quite managed to increase their minutes?