The other day at the New York Times I wrote about the Knicks’ best odds to move up in the playoff seeding. I noted that catching the Celtics was their best option, which meant that the Knicks defeating Boston on April 17th would nearly double their odds.
I’ve updated my simulation accounting for the Celtics going 2-0 and the Knicks splitting their two matches since that time. New York’s odds have dropped to 3.6% to win the division. If the Knicks beat the Celtics the probability rises to 6.6%. Should they lose, their chances are a microscopic 0.3%. Giving the Knicks a loss in any other game only reduces their odds to 1.0%. Hence why that single game is still the most critical.