Look, PER is a stat whose flaws I understand. It’s clear from the formula. You will have a higher PER the more shots you take as long as you clear a 30% threshold for 2 point fg’s and 31.4% for three point field goals.

Which is a ridiculous baseline in an NBA where one of the worse teams in history still put up 95 points per 100. (Bobcats – 2011)

Basically, it greatly overvalues volume scoring and is built on an assumption that there are huge variations in scoring efficiency n the NBA, when in fact it’s a pretty tight distribution. If Melo doesn’t take 25 shots the rest of the Knicks probably are still going to score about a point per possession, and that’s without Amare and Chandler.

Again, if you can explain why Win Shares / 48 isn’t a vastly superior measure of player performance, I am all ears.

And i should say, all linear weight metrics have flaws. They don’t include a lot of defense value most importantly. But there are other tissues too. But by and large, they are a very good starting point for discussion.

Owen:
Again, I just feel like you are making excuses for a guy, eleven years into his career. Great players don’t need these excuses made for them.

And from what I remember of Lin and Melo it was a perfect example of that shit sandwich I was talking about. Melo, to my eye, didn’t look comfortable playing off the ball at all. It seemed totally foreign to him. And maybe with good reason.How many back cuts has this guy made in his life? He has probably had the ball in his hand on the wing on 30-35% of possessions on every team in his life before hitting the NBA and pretty close since then. Playing team basketball is not exactly something that comes naturally to him.

Melo is good. I just don’t think he will ever be great.

And i don’t think the extra usage he offers is worth much at all. Certainly it’s not something to build your house on.

And that is all I have for the night….

I think it’s more that you take one stat (WS/48) to be the end all be all to judge a players greatness, and sometimes seem to refuse to take anything else into consideration, than there needs to be excuses made for Melo. No ones saying Melos as good as Lebron or Durant or Paul, it seems that RuRu is just wondering why you don’t acknowledge or take into consideration anything else.
There is are more advanced metrics that love Melo. The president of SportsVU in a podcast with Zach Lowe at Sloan called Melo a great player and mentioned that Melo has the highest effective FG% of his passes over the last 3 years indicating that when he passes the ball he puts his teammate into a great position to score. Basically there is more context to basketball than simple box score counting stats. PER has flaws but so does WS or WP

ruruland:

Like I said, the next rebuild in 2015 is the big one, and just like it was for Pierce, Garnett and Allen, it’ll likely be the last chance for guys like Melo and Paul to form a team that can beat these other super-powers.

You really didn’t write that, did you? I marvel at the mental gymnastics fans will jump through to justify a position.

We tanked 2 seasons to set up for 3 quazi max players and when panic set in, gave the ranch so melo didn’t have to go through the mental anguish of not knowing whether he would make 19.5 M or 17.5M?

Now, we have to live through 2.5 more seasons of this with no flexibility to do what? Replay the same drama, only this time building a dream team around Chandler (entering his 15th season in 15-16) Melo entering his 13th season and Paul then entering his 11th? All with an assload of milage on them since they entered the nba after high school, one and 2 years of college.

And we’ll have to give these guys 4 years plus moving forward? And only if melo decides to play for 13 million, when he already turned down a better choice than that before he forced the denver trade.

And this fantasy also stipulates Paul will rather play with melo in his 13th season and chandler in his 15th than griffin and de andre jordan squarely in their primes.

Did Lewis Carrol write this post?

A half a billion dollars is a lot of money.

If the Knicks end up with Paul, Melo, Horford and Chandler you won’t hear me complaining ever again….

Chris Paul and Melo are the Godfather’s of Smith’s daughter, Demi, fwiw.

My guess is that Melo’s extension would probably be in the 10-13 million range in the first few years, and if Paul and Chandler were to sign for that same amount like the Heat trio did (at least took less than market value), and the Big three in Boston did, the Knicks could add a max player to those three.

Who could be the fourth player to join the older three?

Kevin Love is a free agent then, and would make a ton of sense. So would Al Horford or Andre Drummond.

Imagine a starting lineup of Paul, Shumpert/Smith, Melo, Love/Horford and Chandler to go up against a re-loaded Heat squad?

Batum will also be a free-agent, and the Knicks could overpay for him. But if Paul signs and the Knicks have a big three in place, is there any doubt they will have their pick of whom to give a max to?

Like I said, the next rebuild in 2015 is the big one, and just like it was for Pierce, Garnett and Allen, it’ll likely be the last chance for guys like Melo and Paul to form a team that can beat these other super-powers.

Just watch and see how long Paul’s new contract is for. That should tell you everything.

ruruland:
And obviously, if Lebron James isn’t a max player, then there’s no way Melo should be.

But I will guarantee you one thing that I know for an absolute certainty.

Injuries aside, Melo’s extension will be long and very team friendly, especially up-front, allowing the Knicks to possibly go after two max players, depending on what happens with Chandler.

Melo will have made close to half a billion dollars in total by the time this contract is up.

He wants to win in New York, he wants to have leave behind a positive legacy, and there’s no way he’s going down as the next A-Rod of New York, as unfair to A-Rod that might have been.

Going after another big contract or going somewhere does nothing for CAA’s brand, nothing for Melo, Melo’s legacy and Melo’s brand, and nothing for the Knicks and the Knicks brand.

what would really be ideal is if the Clippers flame out in the playoffs, Paul decides he wants to come team up with Melo and his old buddy Chandler after all, and CAA makes it happen.

(and yes, I understand the cap, but players can sign for whatever they want. this would be JR Smith on a much greater level.)

anyway, I can dream about that for a few months, as it’s a lot better than this reality.

(although, letting Lin go would make a helluva lot more sense to everyone if it turned out that Paul was coming to town a year later…)

Owen:
Well, it’s basketball, not a chemistry experiment or a mixology class.Unfortunately. I would love to see your Melo cocktail.

Really, I’d love it if we could tinker with things so easily. I would love to see how David Lee’s defense looks like next to a legit center. The only center he ever played with was Eddy Curry. And he has spent five straight years as the primary interior defender on his team. Which is really a joke. Does that make him good on defense?

I learned to revise my opinion of Lee. And I would bet someday you will do the same with Melo. Certainly, I would offer pretty handsome odds of him clearing the .200 WS/48 mark. But the best bet the change in your opinion won’t happen tonight. A very solid wager that would be…..

Bon soir, it’s been fun….

Hey, there’s nothing wrong with the idea of putting Lee by a really solid defense center, and to see that some of his ineffectiveness in the paint historically is caused by the lack of help up-front.

But I will guarantee you one thing that I know for an absolute certainty.

Injuries aside, Melo’s extension will be long and very team friendly, especially up-front, allowing the Knicks to possibly go after two max players, depending on what happens with Chandler.

Melo will have made close to half a billion dollars in total by the time this contract is up.

He wants to win in New York, he wants to have leave behind a positive legacy, and there’s no way he’s going down as the next A-Rod of New York, as unfair to A-Rod that might have been.

Going after another big contract or going somewhere does nothing for CAA’s brand, nothing for Melo, Melo’s legacy and Melo’s brand, and nothing for the Knicks and the Knicks brand.

Really, I’d love it if we could tinker with things so easily. I would love to see how David Lee’s defense looks like next to a legit center. The only center he ever played with was Eddy Curry. And he has spent five straight years as the primary interior defender on his team. Which is really a joke. Does that make him good on defense?

I learned to revise my opinion of Lee. And I would bet someday you will do the same with Melo. Certainly, I would offer pretty handsome odds of him clearing the .200 WS/48 mark. But the best bet the change in your opinion won’t happen tonight. A very solid wager that would be…..

Bon soir, it’s been fun….