Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Sunday, April 21, 2019

Toronto Raptors 117 – New York Knicks 92 – Game Recap

It occurs to me I’ve never exactly told you about my Clark Kent job. I don’t know if there’s such a profession in the USA; but my trade is essentially facility management for condos, accounting for expenses for common areas, negotiating between home owners, and generally acting as the guy you call if you’re an home owner and you’re having some sort of building-related problem. In short, I’m sort of a commissioner of condos. At the end of the year, you have to report in a public meeting with the owners about expenses, works in progress, etc.

Historically, in Italy there have been two ways to do this sort of job: treading water, with minimum effort, and bullshitting your way through every meeting, thinking that the owners will easily be manipulated by the guy they feel is in a position of authority, or being very meticulous and transparent, putting as much effort as possible into making data available to every owner in real time so that by the time of the meeting your work is almost entirely done and you just have to negotiate the disputes between owners.

After a new law about condos was approved in 2013, the first category has seen its ranks slowly but steadily depleted, while new blood (like me) has been inserted in the profession with both eyes towards transparency and accountability. That’s all well and good until you actually have a guy from the first category managing your condo (by law, every condo has to have one of such managers). When that happens, it’s amazing to see how a lot of people fall for their bullshit (“Mr. Rossi, but why did we spend 6k euros just for the cleaning service when last year we spent 3k?” “Eh, you see, growing interest rates have an effect on cleaning materials, so the company has to charge more to every customer, also Mr. Bianchi on the second floor has a dog who suffered from diarrhoea all year and your building needed a lot of extra services”) without even blinking an eye. That’s at the same time discouraging for honest guys and mesmerizing to watch in real time. Of course, as soon as one of the owners sees through the blatant lies, the “bad” manager knows his days are numbered, but ignorance and fear of the “supposed” authority makes it so that “bad” managers last a few years more than they should.

I think you know where we’re headed.

Listening to Fizdale lament a lack of defensive players and attribute the many defensive shortcomings to that, and seeing for the umpteenth time a starting five that clearly doesn’t care at all for defense, I couldn’t take my mind off the thought that he actually makes up things on the go. “Oh god, I have the press conference, I have to survive this, what can I say? Yeah, defense! Even if I don’t pay that much attention to gameplan or rotations, those fools will certainly fall for it again!”.

I mean, Toronto is a really good team, and the standings speak for themselves. But there’s no need to make things easy for them by playing from the start two atrocious defenders in Knox and Mudiay and a very suspect one in Hezonja, while forsaking (at least for the moment) our best available defenders in Kadeem Allen and Mitchell Robinson. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that we started the game falling behind by 13 (25-12) before Knox and Mudiay got subbed out of the game. By the time Mudiay came back in to the game in the second quarter, Knicks had cut the deficit to seven and the team was humming playfully, with a clear monster performance in the making by Mitch. The second quarter went on to end with the Knicks behind by 19, and there was the game. I don’t think we would have had a chance even with Kadeem running the show from the beginning (especially because tonight he was particularly turnover- and foul- happy) and Mitch and Lance (!) playing from the start, but at least we wouldn’t have been subjected to this dreadful start for the umpteenth time this season. I’m tired of watching no-defense ballhogs and chuckers play freely without any kind of dungeon in sight. We’re near the end, but I can’t help thinking about how there were chunks of this season that were lost due to the fact that we didn’t really put our money where our mouth was, as the full moniker of Stratomatic has been suggesting for a few months.

After that, the game was just a cool Mitch showreel and a reminder that Pascal Siakam is everything you should want in a player.

Onto some notes:

– Let’s start with the huge plus from this game: Mitch blew a chance to nab his first career 20/20 Nick Andersoning two free throws with 3.6 seconds to go, but his box score was still more than majestic: 19 points, 21 rebounds, 2 blocks (I counted 4, but whatever) and a steal in 31 minutes of play. For reference, I give you the full list of rookies who reached those thresholds: Mutombo, Mourning, Shaq, David Robinson, Terry Cummings (guy was good for a while), Hakeem, DeJuan Blair (huh), Ralph Sampson, Derrick Coleman, Greg Anderson, Clark Kellogg, Bill Walton and Earl Williams. It’s not entirely a murderer’s row and Mitch registers the lowest scoring performance, but I think it’s something else to add to his impressive resume. He’s also the third youngest ever to post such numbers. He’s also rocking the second highest WS/48 in the list. Right now he’s posting the sixth highest ever WS/48 season for a rookie. He surpassed MJ. I really, really, really don’t get why he doesn’t start. It makes no sense.

– But, well, in a game like this maybe not starting was a boon, since he didn’t have to play with Mudiay a lot. Mudiay is like Mitch’s kryptonite, on behalf of the fact that he never passes the ball like it’s supposed to. Late in the fourth, Kornet and Ellenson were able to find Mitch twice in the low post. Result: a bucket and a foul. If Luke freaking Kornet is able to do that, shouldn’t everyone be encouraged to do the same? Isn’t “pass the ball to the tall, high jumping guy” a good enough strategy, if we’re trying to keep things simple?

– About Mudiay’s night and the general shortcomings of our lead guards: tonight the Knicks recorded as many assists as turnovers. You know who led the team in assists? You’ve guessed wrong right (I guess, by this paragraph and at this point): DeAndre Jordan, with 4 assists in 20 minutes. Tied at 2 apiece after DAJ there are Kadeem, Mario and Kornet. This team is soooo bad.

– I saw the Knox-as-Novak gain some traction in the comments in the last days (and some weird speculation about trying to foresee how good a player will be based on the number of threes taken in his rookie season – but I think we need team optimism more than ever, so it’s ok), and I stand by it. Shooting open threes is probably the only real NBA skill Knox has. It’s not much, but it’s something. Also two blocks and a steal today! But don’t let them fool you: he played defense like my mom would if I put in her hands a NBA2K controller for the first time and didn’t explain her which button does what.

– I didn’t like Kadeem’s performance that much, but at least he was scoring efficiently (18 points on 9 shots) and trying on defense. These days, it’s enough, even with his 4 turnovers.

– Fiz tried to play Jordan and Mitch together. While I commend the fact that we’re trying weird things, it’s evident from the fact that they tried to defy the principle of bodies compenetration in a few offensive possessions, where they both stood in the same exact area under the rim, that they aren’t receiving even a modicum of effective coaching. That’s, uh, not how you should play, you know? At least one has to stand a bit further from the rim.

– DSJ came back and was terrible. Not Mudiay terrible, but still terrible. 7 points on 11 shots and just one assist are horrible numbers, but he looked like he was playing with a bit of fire on defense.

– How is it even possible to airball a layup and a 5-footer in the same game? Well, the Knicks were able to do that, thanks to DAJ (layup) and Lance (5-footer). Veteran leadership, yay!

So, I think I won’t be able to recap Saturday’s game because I have a friend’s graduation party incoming and we’re planning on getting real wasted, but who knows, I might surpise myself and not wake up with a tremendous headache just to watch Knicks basketball!

See you guys!

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132 comments on “Toronto Raptors 117 – New York Knicks 92 – Game Recap

  1. lavor postell

    Just saw responses to my post y’day re: drafting Mitch

    You’re right. And what about Knox, who had bad NCAA stats and has been a trainwreck in the NBA so far, even if only compared to the rest of the outmatched rookies around him?

    What about it? Even good talent evaluators (not enough of a sample on Perry at this point I’d feel comfortable labeling him as good or bad) swing and miss. The Nuggets, one of the best drafting teams in the league, took Mudiay 7th overall.

    It’s possible it was just dumb luck, but given that the Knicks were one of the few teams who seemed to have done extensive due diligence and actually met with the kid I’d say this is a case of their process, which may be horrible for all I know, yielding a positive result and chalking that up to just blind luck is crap. I’d also say getting Trier as a UDFA speaks well of them, but to a far lesser degree.

    Obviously if you keep fucking up lottery picks (even though I’m not there with completely writing Knox off yet) then you’re really screwing yourself.

    how could someone possibly conduct good scouting on Mitch given his lack of exposure? as far as I can tell, he was in the EYBL in the summer of 2016, and that’s it.

    how often does a player’s rating/ranking/estimation change with just a single year of college basketball, which Mitch did not get?

    there was a ton of missing data on Mitch. I’m glad he’s a Knick but the best you can reasonably do is give the Knicks credit for being courageous enough to pull the trigger despite the lack of information. there are simply too many variables to be some high percentage play that only they saw.

    I didn’t say it was a high percentage play? That’s non-existent in the 2nd round. They did their due diligence on a kid some teams had taken off the board entirely and took a calculated gamble on him where they should have. That’s good. Are we going to say the Nuggets taking…

  2. Nick C.

    Nice write-up, as usual Farfa. To answer your question, here the job would be a managing agent or property manager. In NYC, and presumably elsewhere, but I only live here, there are there are companies that do just that for rental properties, co-ops and condos, without having an ownership interest. I believe I may have gone overboard with the commas.

  3. djphan

    how does seeing him in a few games and having a few conversations represent extensive due diligence?

    he was impressive in that one week and a number of scouts had raved about him…. in the second rd you can afford to roll the dice on guys like this….

    and thats really all there is to it… they picked knox off the back of a 3on3 workout… they picked mrob based off a one week sample in hs… i cant really tell you exactly what the knicks did.. but it certainly doesnt seem to be any kind of deep thinking going on…

  4. swiftandabundant

    It’s very simple.

    The Knicks deserve credit for picking Mitch and deserve blame for picking Knox. Why can’t you just leave it at that and say “good job” for picking Mitch and “bad job” for picking Knox? Why do you feel the need to not give them credit for picking Mitch? It doesn’t undo the other mistakes they made but not giving them credit seems petty and agenda driven.

  5. Hubert

    Lavor, it doesn’t sound like you’re crediting their scouting acumen, just their due diligence. That is, by definition, the minimum amount of expected work.

    The Robinson and the Knox pick demonstrated the same thought process: swing for the fences on a young, athletic player with (in their opinion) tremendous upside even if there isn’t a track record of him performing well. Problem is… that seems to be their only thought process. It worked on Robinson. Didn’t work on Knox, Hardaway, Mudiay, Hezonja. So I do think it’s fair to think Mitchell is a case of the broken clock being right one of those two times.

  6. Hubert

    Btw Jarrett Culver looked last night like he’d be an excellent defensive player at the next level.

  7. d-mar

    Farfa, you deserve the Purple Heart for soldiering through these recaps. And this is one of my all time favorite lines of yours about Knox:

    But don’t let them fool you: he played defense like my mom would if I put in her hands a NBA2K controller for the first time and didn’t explain her which button does what.

    As the bar for our prized rookie keeps getting lower, I guess the new hope is that he can hit wide open 3’s at a decent clip. Yeah, not many players can do that!

    Knox’s value will never be higher than it is today; in some recent rookie of the year odds post, he came in like 4th or 5th. Do a Danny Ainge and sell high, don’t wait until the rest of the league realizes how bad he is.

  8. Stratomatic "I'm tired of the Knicks paying lip service to DEFENSE. Get defenders & two-way players. Then play them!

    Sample sizes are typically too small to prove much of anything about draft prowess. I think we are probably better off looking at a management team’s entire record of drafting, trading, free agent signings, player skill set, playing style etc.. to get a better understanding of what they value and decide for yourself if they are competent and building a winning basketball team.

    I’ve said my peace on this repeatedly.

    I think they overvalue offense relative to defense, shot creation relative to play making, ball movement, and player movement, and athleticism relative to basketball IQ.

    Within that they are certainly going to make some good moves and not follow the stereotype in every case. They aren’t total idiots. IMO, they are just going to have a tough time building a team that can win big if they don’t bring in and play mostly two-way players and high IQ defenders that play team oriented basketball to go along with a couple of star scorers.

  9. ClashFan

    Great job, Farfa!

    I’ve been watching much less Knicks in recent weeks (NFL free agency and now the draft coming up and MLB starting up). I’m having a tough job deciding what is the single most disappointing aspect of the Knicks season: Frank N’s miserable 2nd year, the end of the Unicorn era, or the gradual revelation of Fiz the Old School Used Car Salesman.

    Strato’s comments about Fiz and the FO seem pretty much spot on.

    Anyway, the Mets are 1-0!

  10. Hubert

    But don’t let them fool you: he played defense like my mom would if I put in her hands a NBA2K controller for the first time and didn’t explain her which button does what.

    You’ve forever changed the way I will watch Knox.

  11. lavor postell

    Lavor, it doesn’t sound like you’re crediting their scouting acumen, just their due diligence. That is, by definition, the minimum amount of expected work.

    Yet it’s work a number of teams didn’t do because they viewed his issues at WKU and dropping out as character red flags and took him off their boards entirely. The Knicks didn’t. They dug into it and determined whatever the problem didn’t reflect on Mitch being some ornery malcontent. Character and mentality is part of scouting for every prospect. The Knicks did it, then combined with his upside as a bouncy 7 footer who had outplayed contemporaries in a stacked big class in some head-to-head comp just a year or two before, as well as his overall HS footage viewed him as an obvious value pick at 36.

    I know HS scouting has gone down, but NBA teams are still following these guys in AAU and HS comp. They don’t just follow them for a year in college. They probably saw a lot more tape of Mitch than any of us would ever have access to and that likely played a part in their evaluation of him.

    Dismissing it as “blind luck” is what I specifically responded to as nonsense. There clearly was time and thought put into evaluating Mitch, not just throwing darts at a board.

    he was impressive in that one week and a number of scouts had raved about him…. in the second rd you can afford to roll the dice on guys like this….

    and thats really all there is to it… they picked knox off the back of a 3on3 workout… they picked mrob based off a one week sample in hs… i cant really tell you exactly what the knicks did.. but it certainly doesnt seem to be any kind of deep thinking going on…

    You can roll the dice on guys like that in the late first and nobody did. You can from 31-35 and 5 teams didn’t. If we took Khyri Thomas and Mitch dropped to Philly I’m sure people would criticize them for not evaluating Mitch properly.

    You can’t tell me what they did, but you’re certain it was “blind luck” and involved no “deep thinking”. That’s amazing.

  12. Ingmarrrr

    Farfa, I’m looking forward to more analogies from the life of a property manager. I’m sure you have great stories.

    When evaluative Fiz we need to remember he was tasked with tanking, and did a magnificent job leading the Knicks to last place. The job is not done yet, as Phoenix is not out of it and therefore I’m happy about the no defense starting five. How would anyone here feel if the team was actually winning games now?

  13. lavor postell

    The Robinson and the Knox pick demonstrated the same thought process: swing for the fences on a young, athletic player with (in their opinion) tremendous upside even if there isn’t a track record of him performing well. Problem is… that seems to be their only thought process. It worked on Robinson. Didn’t work on Knox, Hardaway, Mudiay, Hezonja. So I do think it’s fair to think Mitchell is a case of the broken clock being right one of those two times.

    Why are we lumping Hardaway into this? He was signed before Perry ever came on board and he dumped him. Clearly he wasn’t beholden to him at all.

    Mudiay and Hezonja were reclamation projects for a year. If they retain either for anything meaningful it’d be concerning, and in Mudiay’s case that may actually prove to be true, but we don’t know for sure.

    Also if their focus was just athleticism why wouldn’t they have drafted Miles? There isn’t nearly enough data about Perry to know what he prioritizes. There are some indications that when churning the roster he likes to take shots on blue chip prospects drafted in the lotto that didn’t work out elsewhere. He also seems to place value on wingspan, but then he also doesn’t seem to care much for Frank, so it’s not a 100% thing.

    The sample size is too small to say with any certainty what specifically Perry likes, but I don’t think he’s in a minority that like elite athletes and guys with wingspan.

  14. Farfa Post author

    You’ve forever changed the way I will watch Knox.

    There was a possession in the third quarter where Knox positively moved in the exact opposite direction of the guy he was “guarding” (I think it was Siakam, who was driving left towards the rim, while Knox was drifting to Siakam’s right, toward the right baseline – it was an unbelievable defensive possession). It reminded me of the first time I tried to “guard” someone in NBA Live 95, when it was impossible to do anything sensible on defense.

  15. lavor postell

    @15 – In the first half, in one of Mitch’s first possessions when he checked in, somebody drove into the paint and Knox kinda walked in towards the paint and watched, lost track of Siakam, who got the ball kicked to him, watched Siakam get ready to shoot, didn’t move while Mitch, who was under the basket, ran out at him. Siakam shoots, Knox, who still hasn’t moved, turns, watches the ball clang off the rim, doesn’t make any effort to go for the board, Toronto gets the rebound, kicks it out to three, Mitch who ran back into the paint, then tried to make another effort to get out to the shooter at the top of the key, Knox still motionless watches, and whomever it was drained the look.

    That was one of the more stunningly terrible defensive passages of play I’ve seen from Knox all season, which is saying something.

  16. Farfa Post author

    But I was expecting 5000 words on Davide Moretti, c’mon! He’s from Bologna!

    And what do you know, his father was actually my favorite player until Ginobili came along. Paolo Moretti was a slightly slower, shorter version of Bojan Bogdanovic. It never ceases to amaze me how much basketball has changed in 20 years. At the time it looked simply impossible to have european guys impacting NBA basketball, so much that when NBA teams came to play in Europe it was a massive event. But many of those guys could carve a niche in today’s NBA. Do any of you remember Jorge Garbajosa in Toronto? That would have been the blueprint for at least 10 Italian guys to jump across the pond. Maybe Paolo Moretti would have been one of them.

  17. Farfa Post author

    Knox still motionless watches, and whomever it was drained the look.

    Yeah I remember this, I think it was Van Vleet.

  18. Jack Bauer

    Knox has looked horrible all year but you just know if they trade him somehow he’ll fix everything and become a useful player. I can’t believe they’d get anything decent back for him so they may as well hang on and ride that pony another season or two. Unless of course he can be part of a package to get a real NBA player, then it’s sayanora Kevin.

    Clarke at #5 just feels like our destiny….I wonder how he’ll do in the all important 3 on 3 workout? That will ultimately decide the selection by the Knicks brain trust.

  19. Owen

    Man, those family reunion clips always get me…

    Davide looked pretty good last night in the highlights. And a 69.5% ts% is nothing to sneeze at. I can see him as the next Belinelli…..

  20. Hubert

    A home run is a home run, and they certainly hit one with Mitch. They deserve credit for making the correct assessment of his character*. But the way they hit the home run doesn’t exactly inspire confidence that we have a 40 HR hitter on our hands, you know? I think that’s all your opponents are saying.

    * It’s also worth noting that it’s extremely early to assume the other teams were wrong about his character. Maybe his immaturity manifests this summer. I hope not, but who knows?

  21. Hubert

    Why are we lumping Hardaway into this? He was signed before Perry ever came on board and he dumped him. Clearly he wasn’t beholden to him at all.

    Because that was the beginning of the Mills Manifesto that values youth and athleticism above all. He stated it clearly at the Hardaway press conference, and we’ve followed it ever since, even with Perry.

  22. Farfa Post author

    Clarke at #5 just feels like our destiny

    I think there are endings much worse than that. Of course, we’d need a competent coaching staff to devise how to deploy Mitch and Clarke at the same time. I don’t think it’s impossible (also, you could stagger them a bit, so that they end up playing something like 18 minutes of their respective 30 together), but if I have to judge from this season Fizdale ain’t the man.

  23. Hubert

    Also if their focus was just athleticism why wouldn’t they have drafted Miles?

    Because Miles is undersized and Knox kicked his ass in a 3-on-3.

  24. djphan

    i dont understand how much you can dissect someone based off of a one week sample of basically all star games…

    seriously what level of rigor are we talking about here? how much of that is repeatable and can lead to outsized results? can you make a conclusive evaluation based on eybl games alone even without the character questions?

    the answer to that is obviously no… this whole mrob discussion is classic results oriented thinking… it turned out well and hence the knicks must have a good process that yielded that… if thats not right then please correct me…

    because thats a really bad conclusion… knowing what they had to work with and knowing whats needed to evaluate prospects in normal situations… theres definitively a lot more luck than any kind of skill involved in that selection..

  25. Farfa Post author

    It’s also worth noting that it’s extremely early to assume the other teams were wrong about his character. Maybe his immaturity manifests this summer. I hope not, but who knows?

    I’m literally terrified by the moment the NYC media will officially select Mitch as their new basketball darling. It takes a good heart and a steady brain to stay humble, especially when you’ll be getting paid 1/5 of Kevin Knox. I really hope they’re passing him lots of contacts for sponsorships.

    Watch Mudiay in that clip, too.

    Case in point: if you talk so much about defense and start Mudiay and Knox, you’re simply bullshitting everyone. Nobody can be that oblivious of such bad defensive skills.

    I can see him as the next Belinelli

    I’m not sure about that (please note that I’m amazed Marco has lasted more than 10 years in the League, I don’t think he’s that good to begin with – but I can say I played against a 10 year-veteran in the NBA when I was young!), Belinelli is a bit better as a secondary ball-handler. Moretti looks more like a Troy Daniels type.

  26. Farfa Post author

    this whole mrob discussion is classic results oriented thinking…

    I think so, but at the same time I remember that this board was pretty happy with the selection.

  27. lavor postell

    Because Miles is undersized and Knox kicked his ass in a 3-on-3.

    Feels like this kinda just proves that elite athleticism isn’t their only criteria. Zhaire Smith would have been higher on their board than Knox or Miles if that was the case.

    A home run is a home run, and they certainly hit one with Mitch. They deserve credit for making the correct assessment of his character*. But the way they hit the home run doesn’t exactly inspire confidence that we have a 40 HR hitter on our hands, you know? I think that’s all your opponents are saying.

    * It’s also worth noting that it’s extremely early to assume the other teams were wrong about his character. Maybe his immaturity manifests this summer. I hope not, but who knows?

    True other teams may be proven right, but based on what we’ve seen thus far I think it’s okay to edge that in favor of the Knicks’ assessment.

    And true, how they hit a HR matter, but even good hitters take wild swings some times. What it may tell us is that early in the count (lotto) these guys are more liable to take a wild cut, but once they work the count (2nd round/UDFA) they’re more judicious in their choices. Again, I’m not sure we know enough about how Perry works to say anything for sure, but I could certainly see that argument.

    Because that was the beginning of th from the Mills Manifesto that values youth and athleticism above all. He stated it clearly at the Hardaway press conference, and we’ve followed it ever since, even with Perry.

    But how they value those things varies. Perry seems to value similar qualities without losing a basic ability to reason. And again, generally, don’t most teams highly value youth and athleticism? Application in assessing those qualities is what varies. I haven’t seen enough from Perry to feel strongly about his player assessment one way or the other. There’s some good or bad in a no/low pressure current…

  28. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    Clarke at #5 just feels like our destiny….I wonder how he’ll do in the all important 3 on 3 workout? That will ultimately decide the selection by the Knicks brain trust.

    The tone reads like you’re unhappy about this. If we have no trust in the front office (which is entirely appropriate), “accidentally” picking the player with the 2nd-highest BPM in this decade of D1 ball is not a bad outcome.

    The bad outcome is dismissing a player being underwhelming (Langford) or plain bad (Reddish) in favor of some nebulous eyetest bullshit about upside and intrigue.

    I’m intrigued as to whether Clarke’s finesse post repertoire and all-direction explosiveness at 6’8″ are replicable in the NBA, because, haha, those things sound pretty damn good to get out of a prospect. Isn’t it weird that there are no concerns about Knox as a skinny 6’9″ SF/PF, but apparently Clarke is too short at 6’8″? I just don’t get it.

    And getting him at 22 means you have his athletic prime locked up on a value deal, and you absolutely don’t have to guess as to whether he’ll be worth an extension, because you will know for sure.

    For the minefield we call the Draft Lottery, Clarke would be a damn fine pick at #5. A safe pick with upside doesn’t come around all that often.

  29. Hubert

    I’m literally terrified by the moment the NYC media will officially select Mitch as their new basketball darling

    Forget about the media. What happens when a small town kid from Louisiana wakes up this summer and realizes he’s a 21 year old millionaire baller living in NYC with no schedule to adhere to?? I’m optimistic he won’t be as thirsty as JR Smith, but who knows?

  30. Hubert

    Feels like this kinda just proves that elite athleticism isn’t their only criteria. Zhaire Smith would have been higher on their board than Knox or Miles if that was the case.

    The point was never that elite athleticism is their only criteria. It’s that they don’t have a sound overall selection process. Prototypical size, athleticism, upside, hype, draft position…. all these things are overweighted. Production, on the other hand, tends to be underweighted. The fact that Robinson is great doesn’t justify this thought process.

  31. lavor postell

    i dont understand how much you can dissect someone based off of a one week sample of basically all star games…

    seriously what level of rigor are we talking about here? how much of that is repeatable and can lead to outsized results? can you make a conclusive evaluation based on eybl games alone even without the character questions?

    the answer to that is obviously no… this whole mrob discussion is classic results oriented thinking… it turned out well and hence the knicks must have a good process that yielded that… if thats not right then please correct me…

    because thats a really bad conclusion… knowing what they had to work with and knowing whats needed to evaluate prospects in normal situations… theres definitively a lot more luck than any kind of skill involved in that selection..

    You realize teams follow guys from like age 14 forward? Even in an era where guys can’t go straight to the pros from HS that’s the case. They likely didn’t just watch tape of him at EYBL for a week although him outplaying Bamba and JJJ head-to-head would have made for nice viewing.

    And my conclusion isn’t result good, therefore process good. It’s that the Knicks were more thorough in their process of vetting Mitch than many teams who altogether took him off the board because of the circumstances of him dropping from WKU and felt he was worth taking a swing at 36. That’s a fine process leading to them being comfortable with gambling on a player with his elite athleticism, agility and size.

    Of course there was luck. It’s a 2nd round selection. Just because luck was involved doesn’t mean there was no thought put into it as well. You need to get lucky to find outlier production from the late first and beyond. That doesn’t mean that when you hit it’s simply down to “blind luck”.

  32. Farfa Post author

    What happens when a small town kid from Louisiana wakes up this summer and realizes he’s a 21 year old millionaire baller living in NYC with no schedule to adhere to?? I’m optimistic he won’t be as thirsty as JR Smith, but who knows?

    Don’t know why but it got my mind back to Andre Drummond and Jennette McCurdy

  33. djphan

    i was also… because in the second rd its fine to be taking gambles… and mrob was clearly a gamble..

    but how much would the thinking change if mrob was a pumpkin? it would be pretty apparent that the front office was basing their selections on not much info… and yes they probably dont…

    which is why folks should be really scared if they dont grab the number 1 pick… or god forbid fall to number 4 or 5… because all those warts that are in their process will lead to headscratching results… and yes they very much do have lots of warts….

  34. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    There’s no way I can be convinced that the same geniuses who brought you Kevin Knox also knew that Mitch Robinson was going to have an all-time rookie season. I don’t know if the same scouts worked those players, but if so (and that seems unlikely), that’s still no reason to believe that the right scout will be reviewing the right guys for this upcoming draft.

  35. lavor postell

    The point was never that elite athleticism is their only criteria. It’s that they don’t have a sound overall selection process. Prototypical size, athleticism, upside, hype, draft position…. all these things are overweighted. Production, on the other hand, tends to be underweighted. The fact that Robinson is great doesn’t justify this thought process.

    And this is based on the Knox pick, basically. They didn’t make big investments into Mudiay or Hezonja. Those were guys they decided to roll the dice on and see if there’s anything cooking in a rebuilding year.

    They signed Trier whose college production was excellent as well.

    Other than that Perry’s contented himself with rolling over cap space until 2019 and seeing if some lottery flameouts can find a second lease of life in New York.

    And I’d argue Perry’s willingness to deal Porzingis speaks to him not entirely being about measurables and upside. The easiest thing to have done would have been to just pony up a max and retain him. There would have been zero controversy about it, outside of this board tbh (kudos KB!), and he’d have been met with mostly resounding praise for staying the course or whatever.

  36. Hubert

    And true, how they hit a HR matter, but even good hitters take wild swings some times. What it may tell us is that early in the count (lotto) these guys are more liable to take a wild cut, but once they work the count (2nd round/UDFA) they’re more judicious in their choices.

    If we want to beat the home run analogy to death, the process we’ve seen so far indicates that our FO could be one of those 1B that hit .190 but 80% of the time they make contact they hit a HR!

  37. lavor postell

    There’s no way I can be convinced that the same geniuses who brought you Kevin Knox also knew that Mitch Robinson was going to have an all-time rookie season. I don’t know if the same scouts worked those players, but if so (and that seems unlikely), that’s still no reason to believe that the right scout will be reviewing the right guys for this upcoming draft.

    THCJ I’m not convinced either. My argument isn’t that Perry is the next Jerry West. It’s that just chalking it up to blind luck isn’t accurate either.

    From there we’ve come to here, but that alone was the initial point. Not whether I’m a true believer in his judgment, which I’m not. I’m very much hoping we pick after a team like Cleveland if we don’t get the first pick because I think they’ll 100% go for RJ who I don’t particularly care for, but whom I think Fiz and Mills for sure will have a basketball boner for.

    I do think if he’s off the board though and Ja or Culver are still there we’d end up with either of them which would make me happy. If we somehow drop to 5th and Zion, Culver, Ja and RJ are gone I’m pretty terrified they won’t pick Clarke as well.

    If we want to beat the home run analogy to death, the process we’ve seen so far indicates that our FO could be one of those 1B that hit .190 but 80% of the time they make contact they hit a HR!

    Lmao. Totally true.

  38. Hubert

    And I’d argue Perry’s willingness to deal Porzingis speaks to him not entirely being about measurables and upside. The easiest thing to have done would have been to just pony up a max and retain him. There would have been zero controversy about it, outside of this board tbh (kudos KB!), and he’d have been met with mostly resounding praise for staying the course or whatever.

    Great counterpoint.

    We’ll see this summer.

  39. Farfa Post author

    As I already said, my biggest fear about Perry is how he’ll handle the Mudiay situation, and the only major misstep he’s done is the probably wasted pick on Knox (but then again, at 9th I understand swinging for the fences). He’s been solid about everything else. Even the best GMs make mistakes; until now he has not made a single crippling decision, while Mills was able to made one and a quarter in just two weeks.

  40. djphan

    what makes you think they were more thorough? because they picked him? i mean youre saying that youre not being results oriented but thats another indicator…

    we know what info they had to work with… and its literally less than 1% of what you get with anyone else… i dont care if youre following him around and sleeping with him…. thats completely insufficient to be having any sort of conviction… if they did then thats more worrisome than beneficial…

  41. d-mar

    We’ll see this summer.

    That’s really it. After the lottery, after the draft, after July 1st when all the smoke clears we’ll know whether Perry, Mills et al really know what they’re doing.

    – Did they draft best player available?
    – Was trading Porzingis for cap space the right move given that we haven’t signed a top tier free agent in like forever?
    – If they whiff on all the premier free agents, are they going to be patient or go 2nd tier and end up with Boogie and Kemba?
    – Will they really clear cap space to keep Emmanuel Fucking Mudiay?

    We will have all the answers in about 4 months.

  42. JK47

    If we want to beat the home run analogy to death, the process we’ve seen so far indicates that our FO could be one of those 1B that hit .190 but 80% of the time they make contact they hit a HR!

    We’re the Adam Dunn of front offices

  43. lavor postell

    what makes you think they were more thorough? because they picked him? i mean youre saying that youre not being results oriented but thats another indicator…

    we know what info they had to work with… and its literally less than 1% of what you get with anyone else… i dont care if youre following him around and sleeping with him…. thats completely insufficient to be having any sort of conviction… if they did then thats more worrisome than beneficial…

    You’re literally just making up a percentage. HS ball, EYBL comp, talking to him, his trainer, knowing he spent his time off working out every day, some of that with AD, etc. Sure, you don’t have college ball, which certainly cuts out a large portion of what you’d normally use to evaluate a player, but this isn’t 1%. Gimme a break.

    What makes me believe they were thorough is the fact that unlike most teams they didn’t take him off the board because of the circumstance surrounding his weird situation at WKU. They were one of the few teams that personally met with him. To my knowledge the only other team that did was the Lakers, who apparently promised him at 27 before deciding instead to go with Mo Wagner.

    They liked him, but not enough to move up in the draft to select him. They hoped he’d stick on the board until their pick at 36, so they weren’t desperate because they want gaga over his measurables. This, to me, speaks of a reasoned approach in assessing and valuing Mitch as a prospect.

    You chalking it up to blind luck doesn’t make it factual. They didn’t just watch some EYBL tape and decide the guy jumping like a pogo stick was probably worth it, so fuck it. That would be blind luck, but it’s also not what happened.

  44. nicos

    We’ll see this summer.

    That’s really it. After the lottery, after the draft, after July 1st when all the smoke clears we’ll know whether Perry, Mills et al really know what they’re doing.

    Yeah, it’s really tough to judge Perry given that my guess is he wanted the Knicks to tank this year. Yes, Knox has got bust written all over him at the moment and trading a second for Mudiay doesn’t exactly inspire a ton of confidence but Mitch and Trier were solid gets and the contracts he’s gotten guys to sign have been very team-friendly. This off-season will tell you far more about Perry than anything he’s done to date.

  45. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    We’re the Adam Dunn of front offices

    If they pick Reddish over Clarke or Morant they’re Chris Davis

  46. lavor postell

    If they pick Reddish over Clarke or Morant they’re Chris Davis

    If they pick Reddish in the first round at all they should be fired.

  47. Owen

    Signing Mitch to that contract was more impressive than the pick and speaks more to there being some kind of decent process going on.

    I am definitely skeptical there is anything good going on. I mean, it’s the the Knicks. But they did do something good and it did require a little more than just picking a name out of a hat.

  48. nicos

    So Frank officially shut down for the season- what are the odds of him being a Knick next year?

  49. Owen

    We were talking about this stat re Brandon Clarke but look what Tommy Beer points out….

    @TommyBeer
    5h5 hours ago
    More
    How bout this for an amazing stat:

    Mitchell Robinson has more blocks than missed shots this season.

    In fact, he has 63 more blocks (143) than missed FG attempts (80).

    Every other player in the league with 100+ blocks has missed more than 200+ FG attempts.

  50. thenoblefacehumper

    I’m torn on this one.

    On one hand, I think some are underselling the amount of available pre-draft material on Mitch. I had mentioned him as an intriguing possibility with the second rounder mostly because of his eye popping EYBL numbers (I have no idea how predictive those are, seems like something more necessary than sufficient). There was also plenty of HS tape on him. There are reasons he was a top 10 recruit, if I recall correctly.

    On the other, it’s hard to believe the front office that made the Knox pick looked at any of that stuff. I mean seriously, the Knox pick was so fucking bad. We were lucky to be picking 9th in a pretty deep draft. There were safe/high floor options (Mikal Bridges) and homerun swing/high ceiling options (Zhaire Smith) left on the board. We somehow wound up with a high-risk, low-reward option based on god knows what (certainly not his numbers, or even a thorough eye test).

    The other guys the front office has picked up don’t do much to clarify their thinking. Trier, DSJ, and Kadeem all have varying levels of legitimate intrigue, but then again, Mudiay (I’m excluding Hezonja because I actually think there was some reason for optimism with him, but the contract they gave him rendered the whole thing pointless).

    So yeah, it wouldn’t shock me if they picked Mitch because of a 4 minute YouTube video or some shit, but if they wanted to delve deeper the opportunity was there.

  51. ess-dog

    I’m concerned about the 3rd pick and RJ. I just don’t see him being a terribly good player. It might be hard for them to take Culver over RJ, though. I’m fine with Culver, but if he’s not the pick, I hope they can trade down for multiple assets.

    And again, I think taking a guy like Clarke over a young project would signal that they have an in with some free agents.

  52. Grocer

    I think Lavor is right about all this. There’s just not enough info to assess how they actually judge prospects and what they value. They had planned to draft Trier at 36 until Robinson was still sitting there. That would have been a solid pick I think most of us would have been happy with. Knox was a bad high-risk pick but I’m unclear on who the good high-risk pick would have been. His NBA performance looks to be better than Zhaire Smith’s G-League performance (small sample size, plenty of caveats, ect).

    Perry is basically 2 out of 3 in the draft. His other signings haven’t gone very well (I could still maybe see Vonleh back on a cheap deal which would be fine, and we’ll see about Mudiay), but he didn’t sign older free agents which would have been both pointless and detrimental to the tank. Trade-wise it’s a fairly solid track record. There’s nothing to indicate that’s he’s great at the job, but there’s more to be encouraged by than to be depressed by. He certainly seems to be doing his due diligence in general, a low bar to be sure, but one that lots of FOs don’t seem to clear.

  53. JK47

    Seems like the people who actually do this for a living are pretty well aware of who the blue chip high school guys are. The Knicks did some legwork on Robinson and figured out that Mitch leaving his college team was not really a big red flag, that he’s basically a decent kid.

    It’s hard to imagine how bad Mitch would have wrecked the competition in Conference USA had he stayed.

  54. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    It’s hard to imagine how bad Mitch would have wrecked the competition in Conference USA had he stayed.

    Imagine the draft pundits doing back-bends to explain why they don’t have him in the top-5: “Questions remain about his ability to shoot the three and create his own offense.”

  55. Ntilakilla

    How bout this for an amazing stat:Mitchell Robinson has more blocks than missed shots this season.In fact, he has 63 more blocks (143) than missed FG attempts (80).Every other player in the league with 100+ blocks has missed more than 200+ FG attempts.— Tommy Beer (@TommyBeer) March 29, 2019

  56. Hubert

    I just got to DC for cherry blossom weekend. Check out this itinerary:

    Friday night: Zion v Va Tech
    Saturday night: Gary Clark Jr at The Anthem
    Sunday afternoon: Zion v LSU/MSU

    The rest of the time: whatever my girlfriend and her family want to do, I don’t care as long as I get those three things.

    I’m probably not going to make a sign, but if you do see one that says “knickerblogger loves Zion” it means I had time to find a kinko’s.

  57. geo

    dang hubert, even as much as I hate to leave the house – that sounds like hella fun…enjoy :)

  58. d-mar

    That sounds awesome Hubert, but you know you jinxed it by saying “Sunday: Zion vs. LSU/MSU” (-:

  59. ptmilo

    technical question. if zion steals hubert’s girlfriend is there any chance that appeases
    dolan’s razor and allows us to win the lottery?

  60. Jack Bauer

    Clarke at #5 just feels like our destiny….I wonder how he’ll do in the all important 3 on 3 workout? That will ultimately decide the selection by the Knicks brain trust.

    The tone reads like you’re unhappy about this.

    After the season of hoops we’ve had to watch, finishing with the worst record, and then the reward being the #5 pick and missing out on the best player (ZW), well yeah I can think of better outcomes. But I am a realist so if it is Clarke at 5 and his production translates to the NBA, that will soften the blow of missing out on Zion.

  61. d-mar

    That Boston-Indy first round series with the Pacers having home court is going to be a slugfest. I’d be surprised if it doesn’t go 5 games.

    Oh and Tommy Heinsohn is a fucking moron

  62. Stratomatic "I'm tired of the Knicks paying lip service to DEFENSE. Get defenders & two-way players. Then play them!

    I’m warming up to Barrett. He’s going to need a 3 point shot to become star offensive player, but he does a lot of things well now. I will not be upset if we take him with the 3rd pick.

  63. geo

    what’s up with that old lady at the scorer’s table mean mugging folks like crazy…

    I don’t even think she’s trying…

    I thought I knew true fear looking in to the eyes of quinn synder, no, that lady is way scarier…

    she’s got dexter disciple written all over her…

  64. Stratomatic "I'm tired of the Knicks paying lip service to DEFENSE. Get defenders & two-way players. Then play them!

    After the season of hoops we’ve had to watch, finishing with the worst record, and then the reward being the #5 pick and missing out on the best player (ZW), well yeah I can think of better outcomes.

    Even under the old system we would not be highly likely to get Zion.

    We would be 25% instead of 14%.

    As I’ve been saying for a few years, there’s a lot of luck in the draft both in terms of where you wind up selecting and whether you wind up with the best player even if you get lucky in the lottery. You can wind up buried in lottery hell for a long time without some luck.

    Even among teams that have done well drafting and built most of their core that way, a few didn’t pick in the the top few. They made a series of fortunate or smart picks later in the lottery or got very lucky like we seem to have with Robinson later in the draft.

    Fans are too result oriented.

    They say, “I liked so and so and he was available”.

    It’s mostly all bullshit. Everyone is throwing somewhat informed darts at the board and what happens next is in huge part luck because no one knows exactly how these kids are going develop. They just have rough probabilities. So even when you are right, you may have been wrong about the probabilities and just got lucky.

  65. d-mar

    I think we should all be very happy if we get a pick in the top 3. Zion, Ja and Barrett are all going to be really good NBA players.

  66. geo

    trying to remember the last college basketball player who was must see tv…from an athletic standpoint, it’s like watching the impossible…

  67. BigBlueAL

    There aren’t enough words to describe how franchise altering it would be if the Knicks somehow won the lottery and drafted Zion.

  68. Owen

    Shaq was must watch tv. Iverson. Zion is incredible but they are doing a decent job on him. Barrett’s been good tonight. I wax and wane on him.

  69. BigBlueAL

    Zion’s defense is just as impressive if not moreso than his offense which is saying something.

  70. TheOakmanCometh

    RIP Frank Ntilikina’s Knicks career
    We hardly knew ye, and what we knew was not so good. I hope you can average double figure points in Turkey in three years.

  71. geo

    ha, those were the exact two names I came up with: shaq and ai…i thought maybe towns, but, not really…

    it likes watching the olympics were you gets these ultra genetically gifted individuals who can compete at a really high level – and make it look so easy…

  72. geo

    I gotta be honest, as a coach, or, point guard i’d be hard pressed to not give it to zion every single play…he’s a willing passer – to a fault…

  73. Stratomatic "I'm tired of the Knicks paying lip service to DEFENSE. Get defenders & two-way players. Then play them!

    RIP Frank Ntilikina’s Knicks career

    I think that’s unlikely unless he’s part of a trade to bring in a veteran player as part of our blowing up the rebuild for 4 years of Durant’s decline or coupling him with a pick to move up in the draft.

    Even though there is supposedly still interest around the league, I don’t think anyone is going to give us a 1st round pick given his lack of progress and injuries. Dallas couldn’t get a 1st rounder for DSJ. We’d be selling at the bottom and probably get a couple of 2nd rounders. IMO, doing that would dumber than a huge pile of rocks at his age given the entire year was an injury riddled and misused waste of time.

    I think they understand what he is now. More likely is they are going to give him one more year to straighten out his 3 point shot. Depending on how much progress he shows (or doesn’t show), that will determine where his career goes.

  74. Stratomatic "I'm tired of the Knicks paying lip service to DEFENSE. Get defenders & two-way players. Then play them!

    So much of what Zion does well he does by being massively stronger than the teenagers guarding him. It’s like the Hulk playing with humans. It will be interesting to see how well that translates to the NBA where whoever is guarding him will typically be taller than him and stronger than the kids guarding him now. Then when he beats those guys there will often be a 7’0″ 260 lb monster waiting for him in the paint instead of another skinny teenager.

    Don’t get me wrong. He’s the clear #1 pick and will be ready to contribute on day 1. But I don’t think he’s going to dominate the NBA until he expands his game further.

  75. Brian Cronin

    Insane ending to the Warriors/Timberwolves game.

    https://twitter.com/SportsCenter/status/1111827758609502208

    Kevin Durant is clearly fouled on a game-tying three, but then the refs ridiculously say that the foul was before the shot (I mean, it wasn’t the worst call in the world, in the sense that you could at least theoretically argue that it was the correct call. Still a terrible call when it’s that close, as obviously you give the guy the shot there when he’s in the motion of lifting his arms to shoot when he’s hit), so instead of Durant shooting a free throw to give the Warriors a one-point lead, it’s still a 3-point Minnesota lead. So with 3 seconds left, they get the ball to Curry and he nails a three with 0.5 seconds left and he starts giving the refs shit about the no-call. So now, with 0.5 seconds left, the Wolves go to try to toss it to Towns near the basket for a tip-in and then the refs call Durant for a super soft defensive foul on Towns and Towns ends up winning the game with a free throw.

    In-sane stuff.

  76. Stratomatic "I'm tired of the Knicks paying lip service to DEFENSE. Get defenders & two-way players. Then play them!

    Barrett’s been good tonight. I wax and wane on him.

    IMO, Barrett is WAY better than his reputation here.

    He’s tall, athletic, can finish, make plays, rebound a bit, score in a variety of ways, gets to the FT line, and I haven’t seen many terrible defensive lapses so far.

    He has one flaw. He can’t shoot the 3 well yet and his FT% is kind of low. That’s what hurts his efficiency. If you think he can improve in those 2 areas, you have a potential star player.

  77. Stratomatic "I'm tired of the Knicks paying lip service to DEFENSE. Get defenders & two-way players. Then play them!

    @88

    The lesson there may be don’t argue with the refs until the game is over. lol

  78. djphan

    well i think his post game will probably not translate that well… he goes wherever he wants and gets whatever shot he wants…. he’s big and skilled in the post… but that aspect of his game will face some difficulty in the pro’s… post games are generally way less effective… nba players are bigger.. faster.. and taller… his lack of height and short arms will probably work against him there also…

    what makes him good is that he is super quick… super explosive…. super big… and he leverages that with a great handle for his size and great reaction timing….

    he doesn’t need a post game but he def has an ok one as is…. he could probably take any nba power forward off the dribble which will probably be his bread and better until his jump shot develops further…

  79. Brian Cronin

    what makes him good is that he is super quick… super explosive…. super big… and he leverages that with a great handle for his size and great reaction timing….

    Yeah, I totally get the idea that Zion won’t be able to overpower guys like he does in college, but it’s the fact that he is so quick and so explosive and has such great leaping ability. That’s not going to be curtailed by playing against NBA big men. Imagine if Okafor could leap like Zion can!

  80. Owen

    I agree about that last play. Seemed like some poor coaching too.

    Barrett had five turnovers and started like 2-7. Came on at the end in a huge way. I don’t know, he’s an easy guy to dream on but anything could happen in the pros with him.

    Duke really is a mediocre team. Their bigs are just ok. They can’t shoot. They have a bunch of guys who look like walk ons getting minutes. But Zion makes it work.

  81. Hubert

    So much of what Zion does well he does by being massively stronger than the teenagers guarding him.

    And quicker. The quickness of his moves is remarkable. When he turns and splits double teams he gets to the basket so fast it’s like he’s operating at a whole different level. I’m not concerned about how he’ll do against stronger men at all.

  82. lavor postell

    @Strat – I’m not a huge RJ guy but that was his best performance all season, I think considering the stakes and situation.

    The reason I’m not particularly sold on him is he’s a bully ball wing, but I don’t think he has much wiggle off the dribble nor is he an elite leaper at or around the rim. He gets a lot of fouls in college just by overpowering guys, but that advantage will be far less pronounced in the NBA and his slightly above average athleticism also will get reality checked at the next level.

    His handle is ok, but nothing special and his jump shooting is a big question mark.

    If he was a physical specimen (Zion) or had better length (Culver) I’d like his odds of turning into a winning high usage NBA player much better than I do currently. I have him 6th or 7th right now, but I think he’s made progress as a decision maker so I may need to revisit that.

  83. ptmilo

    most of my ncaa opinions are probably worthless but i can’t get excited about barrett when i see him. he has great vision for his size. he’s a very polished freshman, elite in that sense. good motor, good decision maker, clever player, very atypical for a young point forward type. but he doesn’t look like a guy that consistently beats people off the dribble in the nba or is an elite finsisher. his shot doesn’t look great and his defensive instincts seem… not great despite being a smart, high activity defender. it seems telling that he gets so few steals despite his length and duke’s frenetic defense.

    i worry about him being a version of evan turner…above average at many things but not in the right combination. i also worry that sometimes guys with great hoops families have their maturity curve shift to the left a bit. definitely not saying he’d be a head scratching pick line knox, he’s a very good college player and a good prospect but he doesn’t smell like an all star level nba player to me.

  84. rama got that Fizdale Magic

    Wait, is the Smell Test more reliable than the Eye Test? TOS%? (True Olfactory Score?)

  85. djphan

    the downside with barrett is that he is a bit stiff… he is def not that quick… he does use his body well…

    i dont think theres much of a diff length or height wise between barrett and culver… culvers skinnier so he might look longer but i think they are roughly the same… but culver is def a fair bit more skilled…

    if you look at the finishes at the rim… culver is way more creative… barrett gets a lot off baskets where hes using his body to leverage a step to flip a one handed floater/layup… it doesnt look pretty because it isnt… hes strong and creative in other ways… but theres a fair amount of risk with him though…

    culver is way more smoother… his finishes at the rim are varied… 1 or 2 hands in his face doesnt really bother him.. he will make midair adjustments… and more importantly he doesnt need a floater because he actually gets the shot he wants…

    i think folks should get used to the idea that culver is better than barrett….

  86. DRed

    Barrett is a fine prospect. He scores a lot, he shows good playmaking ability for a wing, he’s not a zero on defense-the one hole in his game is he doesn’t seem to be able to shoot very well. His scoring efficiency is mediocre not because he’s taking stupid shots for the most part, but because he’s not a good 3 point or FT shooter.

  87. ptmilo

    be honest long form scouting reports would be a lot more palatable with a few scratch and sniffs in lieu of the 900 embedded videos the eye testers use to slowly suffocate your will to live

  88. djphan

    he’s not a tremendous shooter but he shoots well enough…. his 2p % is pretty damn good considering his volume…

    let’s make this clear… barrett’s still a good to great prospect… he’s better than jaylen brown or brandon ingram or andrew wiggins or justise winslow were…. in most year’s he’s a solid top 5 pick just as he is this year….

  89. Stratomatic "I'm tired of the Knicks paying lip service to DEFENSE. Get defenders & two-way players. Then play them!

    @97

    I hear you.

    I haven’t seen enough of Barrett to have a strong opinion. I can just tell from reading comments here that there’s some concern about his mediocre TS% and people are generally negative.

    He’s not “all around inefficient”. He’s efficient from 2 and does get to the FT line. He also has good court vision, passing skills, can rebound and defend a bit. I guess my point is that this is NOT another Knox situation. Barrett has a more well rounded game and skillset. He has to improve his 3p% and FT%, but he’s a much better player than Knox was at this stage.

  90. Stratomatic "I'm tired of the Knicks paying lip service to DEFENSE. Get defenders & two-way players. Then play them!

    okafor might have the most consistently terrible on/off numbers ever

    There are issues with on/off numbers, but with a little subjective analysis of the team and lineup data, they often reveal things that are not revealed by boxscore metrics.

    They remind me a lot of speed figures in horse racing.

    Speed figures reflect what actually happened on the racetrack, but informed handicappers know there are all kinds of pace, trip, race development, track bias, and other issues that impact the horses’ times. So the very best handicappers use figures as an objective starting point and then subjectively analyze what went into them.

    However, when figures or on/off numbers are extreme for a few years/races, you can probably trust them. Okafor is likely still pretty bad.

  91. Grocer

    Isn’t pretty normal for a poor FT% to translate into poor shooting? And if a guy is only getting to the rim via ugly twists and turns either that doesn’t translate to the pros or he’s Jokic. One of those is far more likely.

  92. djphan

    it is … but it’s not perfect….. there’s probably dozens of examples of folks in the nba who weren’t great or even good shooters who were able to develop it…. wilson chandler..conley.. kawhi and hollis jefferson are a few that come to mind….

  93. Stratomatic "I'm tired of the Knicks paying lip service to DEFENSE. Get defenders & two-way players. Then play them!

    Shooting is one of those things I haven’t found many predictive patterns to.

    You can find many examples of steady improvement, explosive improvement, sharp improvement later in a players’s career, and even big men developing a good 3 point shot after working on it for one off season, but you can also find many examples of players being bad early and staying bad for their entire career.

    To me, if a guy has a good game other than shooting you should be patient with his shot until his mid 20s. Too many players develop a 3 point shot and other shooting skills later to automatically dismiss them. If he’s mediocre at everything else, then you can dismiss them. But I’d rather keep a plus defender/playmaker on the bench until I know which way it’s going to go than to toss him and watch him blossom into a terrific two way player elsewhere.

  94. BigBlueAL

    I’m reading all this bullshit today about Zion not being very skilled and doesn’t have a position in the NBA because he’s too slow to play SF and too short to play PF. Holy crap I really hope the Knicks front office doesn’t think the same way.

    The thing to me about Zion is actually how skilled he is. He has pretty good handles and passing ability but the main thing is how amazing he is at finishing around the basket and I don’t mean just by dunking. His ability to finish with both hands around the basket is a vastly underrated skill. Not to mention how good he is defensively and not just because he has highlight reel blocks once in awhile. He averages 2 blocks and 2 steals per game.

  95. Grocer

    I’m reading all this bullshit today about Zion not being very skilled and doesn’t have a position in the NBA because he’s too slow to play SF and too short to play PF. Holy crap I really hope the Knicks front office doesn’t think the same way.

    I think this is mostly about deflecting notice from the fact that Duke is incredibly thin and pretty poorly coached. People love to defend their heros by shifting blame.

  96. Brian Cronin

    I’m reading all this bullshit today about Zion not being very skilled and doesn’t have a position in the NBA because he’s too slow to play SF and too short to play PF. Holy crap I really hope the Knicks front office doesn’t think the same way.

    Maybe that means the Knicks can get him even if they don’t draft #1!

  97. geo

    I wonder if his presence alone out on the court, for whatever crappy team drafts him, is enough to “turn” that franchise around…

    he seems to make his teammates better…i haven’t seen any kind of hero ball tendencies on either offense or defense…

    it’s not just that he’s a big guy who can jump high…he’s able to focus really well and be situationally aware…and, on top of that, react crazy quick…

    what’s really weird is his deft touch…it makes no sense at all…

    there’s a very good chance he’s going to raise the confidence level and performance of everyone around him…I’m just not sure how much…

    any team with a decent chance at drafting him will probably have fewer than 25 wins – will he be good for plus 10 wins all by himself?

  98. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    I’m not saying that Coach K is an Xs and Os genius but I feel like “poorly coached” is spin for “recruited four top-tier of the blue-chip prospects and only one turned out to be an actual star.”

    Jones, Barrett and Reddish sans Zion is probably a 23-14 team with an at-large bid because “ACC strength of schedule” and they lose 2nd round and everyone goes, “Needs more player development than K can give them in five months.”

    No one try to pull the bullshit that Duke’s three underachievers could be better coached and turn into 40% 3PT shooters. Maybe they just suck, okay?

  99. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    To me, if a guy has a good game other than shooting you should be patient with his shot until his mid 20s.

    Lonzo Ball: would you offer him a rookie max right now?

  100. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    If there was a quid pro quo and it happened via text, Porzingis is done for awhile.

    Why did Culver get pulled from the game with 2 fouls and 16 minutes left? Again I ask — do coaches know that you don’t get extra points for players finishing the game with <5 fouls?

  101. Ntilakilla

    @124

    I’m sure it was a worse day in the life of the girl if the allegations are true.

  102. Ntilakilla

    I don’t know who I am more in love with right now: Pete Alonso or Mitchell Robinson.

  103. Donnie Walsh

    I’m sure it was a worse day in the life of the girl if the allegations are true.

    Yeah, well this is a basketball blog, not a life of the girl if the allegations are true blog, so forgive me for focusing on Porzingis in that comment.

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