Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Saturday, November 22, 2014

Tonight’s 4 Factors (vs PHO, 12/2/07)

After each game this season, we’ll be taking a look at what the four factors have to say about the game– how the winner won and the loser lost. For an intro to the four factors, see A Layman’s Guide to Advanced NBA Statistics.

Knicks lose to Suns, 104 – 115

	Pace	Eff	eFG	FT/FG	OREB%	TOr
PHO	93.0	123.7	62.5%	11.9	20.0	11.8
NYK		111.8	50.0%	20.9	32.6	11.8

Going into the 4th quarter, the Knicks were matching Phoenix basket for basket. The score was 85 – 84 Phoenix, with both clubs featuring an offensive efficiency north of 120 points per 100 possessions. However, the wheels fell off in the 4th, as New York lost its offensive flow. The Suns ended the game with an offensive efficiency close to what they had been producing through 3 quarters, whereas New York’s offensive efficiency dipped by more than 10 points per 100 possessions between the 3rd and 4th. Once again, the fickle offense determines the difference between wins and losses.

Overall it’s hard to be too disappointed in this game’s outcome. Phoenix outperformed their typical offensive performance this season (111.4 pp100), but against the Knicks that is to be expected. Meanwhile, in spite of the poor 4th quarter the Knicks posted a strong offensive performance, even though the Suns have been a solid defensive team so far this season (allowing 104.1 pp100, 8th in the league). It just wasn’t strong enough for long enough to overcome an elite team.


4 factor stats were acquired using the ESPN4Factors script by Cherokee of the ABPRmetrics board. Firefox users can use this script (after installing the Greasemonkey extension) to see 4 factor stats automatically displayed in all NBA boxscores on espn.com.

19 comments on “Tonight’s 4 Factors (vs PHO, 12/2/07)

  1. Mike

    Marbury is basically refusing to pass the ball to anyone but Zach 75% of the time. Marbury is harboring a major grudge against Qrich, Curry, Jcraw and Malik Rose.

  2. Teve Tash

    “On Nov. 13, the day he left the team in Phoenix after Thomas informed him he would not start him, a childhood mentor, Robert Williams ? known as ?Mr. Lou? ? passed away. Then before Thanksgiving Marbury?s aunt passed away. He opted not to attend the funeral and instead travel with his team to Detroit for the Nov. 21 game.”

    Anyone feel a little bad now?

  3. T-Mart

    hahaha nice work future nets fan:

    Dolan frequently sits at Knicks games with a snarling look on his face, arms folded across his fat disgusting belly. He has gone so far as removing fans from Madison Square Garden who boo him during Knicks games.

    Despite the Rangers’ recent success, their fans have little love for Dolan. When Mark Messier’s jersey was retired on January 12, 2006, Rangers fans booed when Messier thanked Dolan. [2]

    Dolan performs blues-inspired rock as the singer for JD and the Straight Shot, which no one cares about.

  4. Ben R

    Why did the team completely forget about Curry? He was 9 for 12 with 18 points through three quarters and then only gets one shot in the fourth. When he is having his way like that we need to make a point to feature him. Also after we ignored him for the first 6 minutes of the fourth quarter he draws three fouls and a score on three consecutive trips down the court and Isiah sends him to the bench.

    As long as he is in the game we need to feature him everytime down the court. If we are not going to feature him he should be on the bench because if he is not touching the ball he only hurts the
    Knicks. He is alot better about passing out of the post when there is no shot and only has 5 bad pass turnovers this season. We should throw it into Curry and if they take away that shot he can pass out and we can work the ball around the perimeter.

    Randolph, Crawford and Richardson – 121 minutes 38+ minutes each, 16-48, 7 turnovers, 44 points. Everyone else – 129 minutes only Marbury with over 30 minutes, 24-38 4 turnovers 60 points.

    Every game it is at least two out of Randolph, Crawford and Richardson that have terrible games, often it is all three. They kill us with their terrible shooting. Crawford is leading the team in FGs, Randolph is 2nd and Richardson is 5th. They are killing us because they keep throwing up shots.

    So far this season Q, Zach and Jamal have a combined efg% of 42.6%, Everyone else on the Knicks has a combined 49% efg%. Q, Zach and Jamal have accounted for 108 of our 255 turnovers.

    We will never be successful if our two leading shot takers have a turnover rate, efg% and ts% that is worse than both the team average and the league average.

  5. retropkid

    Knicks have trouble holding anybody under 50% FGs…

    I was in Miami this weekend and saw Heat lose to Celts…Heat are bad, Celts are good. KG is a stud, even when he is mediocre, he is great…

    Knicks seem to be competing with four other clubs for the 8th play-off spot…odds against them being the one…

  6. Owen

    While I put no great stock in +/- data, Randolph has managed to help the offense quite a bit so far this year, it seems, though it seems incredible to me. Crawford seems to have helped as well. Bizarre.

    Curry has helped just a bit of offense (1.7) but has been absolutely atrocious on defense, (8.4).

    And Lee, still hanging out, waiting to make a positive impact…

  7. Frank

    Interesting tidbit for all the David Lee man-lovers out there who think he deserves 35+ minutes per game despite the fact that he seems to get blocked every other time he gets near the hoop. Despite all the per-minute stat love he gets, here are 2 immortal players in the league right now that he matches quite equally with in terms of stats and what they expect from him on the floor (ie. defense, rebounding, tip-ins):

    Name Usage RebRate PER R/40 TS%
    David Lee 15.2 18 17.6 12.6 56.7
    B.Haywood 15.4 16.6 17.6 11.6 56
    Etan Thomas 13.1 17.4 15.6 12.1 58.5

    Would there be a lot of clamoring for Haywood and Thomas to get on the court more if they were on the Knicks?

    Don’t know what’s wrong with Lee this year but he is definitely NOT the same player as we thought he was last year. Have we hit a ceiling with him?

    From 82games — David Lee takes 45% of his shots from “close” and an astounding 29% of them are blocked. Overall on his “inside” shots which account for 74% of his total shots, 19% of them are blocked. For someone who makes his living on dumpoff dunks and putbacks, that is outrageously bad. In comparison, only 12% of Z-Bo’s “close” shots are blocked, and only 13% of all “inside” shots are blocked.

    Now I looked around to some other teams and it seems like more shots get blocked in general than I would have thought… even so, for someone who was once characterized by John Hollinger as one of the top 5 finishers in the NBA, there is a serious problem here.

  8. Frank

    apology — Lee was one of the best “weak-hand finishers” in the NBA according to Hollinger. But the other guys on that list — Boozer, Artest, Kaman have these “own shots blocked” percentages:

    Boozer – 14% close, 12% inside
    Artest – 3.4% close, 4.9% inside
    Kaman – 8% close, 7% inside

    And the REAL best finishers in my opinion:

    LeBron – 9% close, 12% inside
    Kobe – 5%, 6%
    Stoudemire – 3.5%, 6.5%
    David Lee – 29%, 19%

  9. Frank

    not to keep piling on this “own shots blocked” business, but does anyone know whether there are stats kept on points scored after blocked shot? it seems like a lot of times the blocking team runs out and it’s almost like a fast break… is scoring more efficient after a block?

  10. Mike K. (KnickerBlogger)

    Frank,

    Lee has been getting his shot blocked like crazy this year. I’m not surprised at all at the numbers. Last year his blocked shot %s was 14%/10% nearly half the rate, and very close to the “monster of the post” Zach Randolph. It could be Lee’s injury lingering, or the cold bench sapping his strength for 24 minutes a game. Seriously though I’ll be a tiny bit concerned if Lee’s doesn’t improve on those numbers. That’s Malik Rose territory.

    As for your comparable, I love Brendan Haywood. WizKev scouted out the team’s defense for a few years, and Haywood seemed to come out as one of the team’s better defenders.

  11. Owen

    Frank – It’s ugly when he gets his shot blocked, it’s undignified, and it makes me wince. But facts are facts. DLee is off to a bad start and his scoring efficiency, his ts%, is still 56.7% this year. That trails Curry by less than 2%. This year He is averaging 17.64 points per 48, 1.7 points less than the average power forward.

    Getting your shot blocked is in there with the ability to hit a jumpshot in the category of things that produce a visceral reaction in basketball fans but matter less than they think. If Lee were shooting 47.3 ts% and getting his shot blocked that much I would be more worried.

    Re the Haywood and Thomas comparison, not sure where you are going with that. First of all, has Etan Thomas played this year? I don’t seem him on the stat page.

    But really, what’s wrong with Haywood and Thomas? Sure they are not immortal players, but when healthy they are very good low usage big men. I would much rather the two of them on the Knicks then Eddy Curry. We would actually have two defenders who can block shots and rebound.

    PER has a lot of problems with low usage big men, and a lot of problems in general. The fact Rodman is rated as below average for his career should be enough to tell you that. But FWIW, Lee’s Per was over 20 last year, which Haywood and Thomas can’t touch. That’s a mark better than Curry has ever posted, and better than every year by Randolph other than last year.

  12. jon abbey

    “And the REAL best finishers in my opinion:”

    dunno what his numbers are, but Tony Parker has to be mentioned in this category, he’s 6 feet tall without special hops, yet he’s always in the league leaders in points in the paint.

    I’ve always liked Brendan Haywood, ever since college, nice to see him finally starting to put it together.

    “This year He is averaging 17.64 points per 48″

    does capitalizing “He” mean you’re actually worshipping him now? :)

  13. Owen

    I am wearing his jersey as I write this…

    But yea, that’s a typo…

    I think it bears mentioning that in the last ten games, basically since those debacles in Miami and Phoenix, Lee has posted a ts% of 61% while averaging 14 rebounds per 48. Not terrible.

  14. Alec

    I am a Knick fan that lives in DC. I have season tickets and Haywood is a beast this year. I sit in the nose bleeds and everyone calls him the janitor because he does the dirty work.

    Yet, somehow he is still being outplayed by Blatche. This kid reminds me of a young Jermaine O’Neal coming out of Portland.

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