Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Wednesday, July 30, 2014

Tonight’s 4 Factors (vs GSW, 11/20/07)

After each game this season, we’ll be taking a look at what the four factors have to say about the game– how the winner won and the loser lost. For an intro to the four factors, see A Layman’s Guide to Advanced NBA Statistics.

Knicks lose to Warriors, 82 – 108

	Pace	Eff	eFG	FT/FG	OREB%	TOr
GSW	100.0	108.0	52.9%	19.8	17.8	11.0
NYK		82.0	41.8%	20.3	36.6	29.0

If the Knicks keep this up, we may as well prepackage the following message for all these 4 factor posts:

The defense was awful. The offense was awful. Awful D + Awful O = blowout losses and a lottery team. fin.

What still cannot be emphasized enough though is that the offense is hurting more than the D. 108 points per 100 possessions is actually below the Knicks’ season average so far, and also less than their average defensive efficiency in their two wins (109.5). So it’s terrible, yes, but not something that will change.

The amazing vanishing offense is continuing its whirlwind tour, however. And what dictates New York’s Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde mood swings is variation in the offense, which unlike the D, can range from very good to very bad. Right now we’re in a prolonged spell of utter badness. 82 points per 100 possessions. The 4th straight game under 43% eFG. And a whopping season high 29 TOs per 100 possessions, worst of the season by a large margin. The ’94 Knicks would have a tough time winning with that offensive performance, let alone this bunch.

It seems the league has adjusted to the Knicks’ offensive attack. The ball is in Isiah’s court now. What is his countermove? The clock is still ticking.


4 factor stats were acquired using the ESPN4Factors script by Cherokee of the ABPRmetrics board. Firefox users can use this script (after installing the Greasemonkey extension) to see 4 factor stats automatically displayed in all NBA boxscores on espn.com.

23 comments on “Tonight’s 4 Factors (vs GSW, 11/20/07)

  1. JK47

    I always wished that the Knicks would just blow up the roster, become one of the two or three worst teams in the league and spend a couple of years in the lottery. Isiah may end up doing this entirely by accident. This isn’t just a garden-variety bad team– this team has potential to be one of the great trainwrecks in NBA history.

    Isiah has assembled a breathtaking collection of losers. Stephon Marbury, Eddy Curry, Zach Randolph and Jamal Crawford get the bulk of the minutes on this team. I don’t care who’s coaching the team– that bunch of me-first malcontents is never going to play well together.

  2. Albert

    The problem with looking forward to the lottery, is that we have our pick this year. We still owe a pick or two and not all of them are lotto protected. We need to fix this mess.

    Blow up the team, keep the Younguns.
    Really, no easy answer here. When you build a team mostly made of S.H.I.T. the outcome is pretty clear.

  3. Gmal

    Turnovers were the key to the loss and when you get those turnovers mainly from the guard play which is also bad defensively thats one in the loss column.
    The offense is ill designed around the 2 bigs. Instead of the guards just coming down and feeding them first they should look to penetrate first then
    look for the opening plus use the high pick and rolls. But Crawford and now Mardy are turnover machines and marbury has lost 2 steps. Another factor is that I hardly see any crisp quick passing out of the low box from Zach or Eddie.

  4. retropkid

    Pathetic. No D, no shooting, no ball handling, not much of anything. While I am not a fan of Kobe, if the Knicks can get him they should. We got nuthin’ going with this group.

  5. Count Zero

    Hey, I’m the last one to give this roster any credit — this composition will never be playoff-competitive even with the addition of a quality player here or there. It’s horrendously mismatched.

    But IMO, this team is a pass-first, team leader PG away from being a .500 team. Put a real general on the floor and watch Curry and Zach gel, the TO rate dive, and Nate flourish off the bench.

    The problem here is that no one takes charge of the offense — or at least no one that you want taking charge of the offense (cf. Jamal). And that has been compounded by IT’s lack of leadership skills. Curry, Zach, Balkman, Lee, Nate, Jamal aren’t as bad as they have looked the last few games. They’re just wandering aimlessly and dejected. Again, they still wouldn’t get out of the first round, but they would get into the playoffs.

    But I really hope they continue to suck for a while instead, because that will ensure the end of IT’s reign, and increase the likelihood of them blowing up the roster and actually rebuilding. Right now, even if they were to start rebuilding we would be screwed because IT would manage the process. This team isn’t a train wreck because it has no talent — it’s a train wreck because it has mediocre talent and no leadership.

  6. Sly Williams

    The Knicks were 29-34 when Isiah signed his contract extension last season. Which means… they are 6-23 since then.

    GSW are 28th in the league in NBA in defense (points/possession by opponent) including this game.
    Spring Valley Home for the Elderly scored 62 against them in a scrimmage, it is rumored.
    But the Knicks, rested and at home, with all their offensive weapons scored only 0.82 pts per possession? Wow.

  7. Pete

    Speaking of offense, what ever happened to “the Quick”? Wasn’t it supposed to combine principles from Bob Knight’s motion offense with elements from just about every other successful system from the last 20 years?

  8. Owen

    Lol, the quick.

    I think unfortunately, Mardy Collins is being revealed as not an NBA level player. Count Zero is correct. Other than Marbury, a shoot first point guard, we have no pg. Mardy Collins is not a pg. He is someone who can defend SGs and PGs, but that’s about it.

    I had hoped that Collins would improve his shooting in the offseason, but it looks to be worse this year…

  9. retropkid

    I was hoping Collins would improve his shot too.

    Maybe even worse, his facial expression is “fear” — no toughness, grit, determination, or leadership.

    We’re more than a point guard away…or bigs turn the ball over, our “go to” center can’t make foul shots, David Lee can’t play the 3 defensively, we have lousy perimeter D, our bigs get beaten down the floor by faster bigs…and our coach has no integrity, our owner is a dolt.

    Getting to .500 in the East shouldn’t be mistaken for having a good team…there will be some lousy ones that do it, I just don’t think the Knicks will be one of them.

  10. caleb

    Agree with CountZero that even a mediocre pass-first point guard, not embarrassing on defense, would go a long way towards respectibility.

    Still… what happened?

    When we did predictions a few weeks ago, I guessed 37 or 38 wins. If you took Balkman out of the equation, I’d have said that’s 3 or 4 wins less (over the course of the season). If I’d known David Lee would play 25 mpg instead of 35, I’d say that’s worth another 2 or 3. But that’s still a 30-win team. The way we’re playing, we’d be lucky to win 15.

    I mean – there was no reason to think we’d be GOOD, but no reason to think we’d be dramatically WORSE than last year. What gives? Without looking too hard, I’d say that Q, Randolph and Marbury are seriously underperforming… and Robinson, too, maybe due to injury.

    I think Randolph will start playing a bit better, hopefully Nate will get healthy and Lee may get his minutes… but I have a bad feeling about the other guys. Q & Steph look shot, and Balkman’s injury has the look of something that will linger all year.

    Looks like the mid-lottery.

    btw, if Isiah goes, I think the job would be very attractive to potential replacements. (whether Dolan picks a good one, is something else…)
    There’s a nice core of young talent, plus the lottery pick… and valuable trade assets in the expiring contracts of Marbury and Rose.

    The budget is basically unlimited, and for all his faults, Dolan isn’t trying to make the basketball decisions. If anything, our fans’ concern is that he’s too hands-off. The next two years will be rough, but after that it seems like an attractive place to work.

  11. retropkid

    Maybe it could never happen now, but I wouldn’t mind seeing Jackson come in and coach our guys. He has the competitive fire, the proven winning attitude, and the integrity and professionalism of the great Knick teams from the past.

    Knicks will still win over 30 games this year, they East is still pretty shaky — but Zeke must go. He’s a blight on the franchise — he makes me pine for the days of Spencer Deadwood…

  12. Frank O.

    You know a couple days ago I said I was feeling more and more like the Knicks should just blow this team up.
    I also said that Isiah’s ignoring the team regarding the benching of starbury sent the wrong message and meant he likely would lose this team.
    And here we are.
    The team is simply not trying very hard. The team doesn’t play together. Isiah has cast his lot with an underperforming guard.
    Meanwhile, the players who seem most enthusiastic, energetic and productive get the least amount of minutes. Lee, Balkman and Robinson simply don’t get much time. Morris gets no time.
    But we have to keep running Randolph, Curry, Q, Crawford and Marbury out there for 30-34 minutes per game.
    It just seems wrong.

    Frankly, I was thrilled Dolan was there to see it. I hope he was embarrassed. Security guards better have recognized him after this debacle…I hope it caused a nice case of indigestion.

  13. Frank O.

    So, do you think the Knicks could land Jason Kidd?

    Ian O’Conner says kidd is going to get moved…

    Jason Kidd just opted out. He filed for free agency as clearly as Alex Rodriguez did, only there was no superagent leak to disrupt the NBA Finals, and no guarantee Kidd will crawl back into the warm embrace of his jilted team.

    Out West, a day before he moved to temper his remarks, the captain and leader of the Nets said the team has no chance of winning a title.

    “Right now there is no light at the end of the tunnel,” Kidd said in two published reports.

    Pay no attention to the more hopeful quotes behind it. Kidd spoke from the heart before someone could remind him that captains don’t bail on sinking ships, or before someone could point out that the franchise supported him through a series of personal crises that would make Britney Spears and Lindsay Lohan blush.

    His team was about to extend its losing streak to six in a spectacular way, about to get blown out again in Utah. The Nets were about to lose by more than 20 points for the third time in four games, and Kidd decided it was time to send out his distress signal, a clear mayday call from a 34-year-old star who knows he’s got far less time than A-Rod to win a championship ring.

    “We get to the playoffs and everything disappears,” Kidd was quoted as saying.

    “The same thing happens year after year.”

    So enjoy the next two or three months, Nets fans, because they could represent the final days of a most improbable and glorious run. Kidd might’ve saved the franchise once, but deep down, he knows he can’t save this team.

    Kidd’s not going public with any trade demands, but he’ll likely push harder for a deal before the February deadline than he did last season, when Rod Thorn would’ve shipped him into Kobe Bryant’s backcourt if only the Lakers were willing to send back Andrew Bynum.

    Kidd counts Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett among his friends. He sees his fellow ring-free stars aligning in Boston, creating a Big Three that puts the Nets’ Big Three to shame.

    In two games, the Celtics have beaten the Nets by a combined 33 points. Kidd can’t even kid himself anymore. Gone are the days when the Nets thought they could navigate a soft Eastern Conference tournament and then hope for a sprained Tim Duncan ankle in the Finals.

    On the eve of the season, Kidd did say this was the most talented team he’d ever dressed for. Like Bob Arum, he was lying yesterday and telling the truth today.

    The Nets are 4-7, losers of six straight. Vince Carter might rush to the rescue, but he’s proven to be an otherworldly force in the regular season and an all-too-human mystery in the playoffs (did someone mention A-Rod again?).

    Kidd’s tired of losing in the first and second rounds, tired of believing that consecutive defeats in the Finals to Duncan and Shaq will be as good as it ever gets.

    Kidd’s also tired of leading the league in pain threshold and having no banners to show for it.

    “Jason’s like a football player,” Thorn said from Portland. “He’ll play with anything.”

    Cracked ribs. Deep thigh bruises. Bone-on-bone knees. Anything.

    “I wish we had more like him,” Thorn said.

    Kidd wishes the same. He doesn’t have the time to see if Sean Williams can develop into one of the better power forwards in the game. Kidd is playing on two bad legs, and they aren’t likely to get better with age.

    His Nets can’t shoot straight. They don’t defend with passion. They don’t take care of the ball.

    “It should get to Jason,” Lawrence Frank said from Portland. “It should get to everyone. Jason is our captain, and he has a right to express his dismay. He has a responsibility that makes him different from anyone else putting on a uniform, because he lifts others up, whether it’s playing big minutes back to back or averaging a triple-double.

    “At the same time, he also has a responsibility in that, if you’re part of the winning equation, you also have to be part of the losing equation.”

    Kidd was 1-for-9 from the floor against the Jazz to record a rare triple-single. But even when he managed 19 rebounds in a triple-double against the Magic, his Nets still lost by 25.

    “It’s embarrassing when you get your butt kicked,” Frank said, “but we all have to be in this together.”

    Is Kidd in or is he out? When Carter, Nenad Krstic and Marcus Williams are healthy, the Nets clearly should be a functional playoff team. But Kidd doesn’t want to be part of a functional playoff team. He wants to get his ring.

    He blew his chance way back when ? the Spurs were offering big free agent bucks and a willingness to kick Tony Parker to the curb. Kidd put his money on Jersey and now realizes it wasn’t the best basketball bet.

    Finally, he declared for the record that there’s no light at either end of the Lincoln Tunnel.

    “Jason’s just an ultracompetitive person,” Thorn said, “and with the losing I just think his frustration boiled over. I would’ve preferred if he kept it behind closed doors.”

    Thorn hasn’t restarted talks with the Lakers, not yet, anyway, but an unhappy Kidd and an unhappy Kobe could inspire a phone call or three. Yes, Thorn would trade Kidd for a Bynum package. No, he wouldn’t trade Kidd for a Lamar Odom package.

    Either way, Kidd’s sudden burst of candor was his first hard dribble toward the door. So enjoy the Hall of Fame playmaker while you can. He still puts on a hell of a show.

  14. mason

    Kidd would solve some many problems for the kNicks but why would they trade him across the river to see us succeed?

  15. caleb

    Jason Kidd, no way. If the Nets were willing to deal with the Knicks at all, the only way they’d do the deal would be if we gave up all our young players, and then what are we left with? By the time we had any chance to be decent he’d be at least 36 or 37 years old.

    I wonder if the Lakers will reconsider – Bynum looks awesome this year, but Kobe still seems impatient.

    Otherwise, that will be a very tough trade to make… hard to see any contending teams with enough young players to entice the Nets into making a deal… maybe something wacky like Atlanta — say, Pachulia and Speedy Claxton (to match salaries), and one or two of the good players — Smith, Childress, Horford, Williams…

  16. retropkid

    trade Balkman, Lee, and Collins for Kobe (more if you have to)…our “young talent” is a bunch of benchers on a sub-.500 team in the less talented conference…who need them? We need a stud, with a take-no-prisoners attitude that, hopefully, might infect the rest of these guys to care about winning (instead of just “competing” and “playing our best” — quotes from Lee that seems to show no killer instinct).

    Give Marbury about five games to come alive with Kobe as his running mate…if he can’t do it, start Nate at the point and let ‘em rip.

  17. mason

    Thorn loves KIdd as much as Buss loves Kobe, it ain’t going to happen!

    Artest looked great against us last week, thats a good fix if its not too expensive.

  18. mason

    “trade Balkman, Lee, and Collins for Kobe (more if you have to)…”

    do u seriously believe that would entice the lakers?

  19. Sly Williams

    “Thorn loves KIdd as much as Buss loves Kobe, it ain?t going to happen!”

    Thankfully. The knicks are not 1 player from contending, they are 1 new management staff from contending. Kidd is an upgrade, but will move them further away from the necessary rebuilding.

  20. mason

    sly-
    i never said we were 1 player from contending, there are many issues to address.

    On a side note I think that Curry and Zach magnify eachothers weaknesses similar to the way Crawford and Marbury do…Isiah thinks that individual talent and potent offense wins games.

  21. retropkid

    mason Said:
    November 21st, 2007 at 1:26 pm

    ?trade Balkman, Lee, and Collins for Kobe (more if you have to)??

    do u seriously believe that would entice the lakers?

    I dunno what it would take to land Kobe, that’s why I say more if you have to…who else do you want to give them? Marbury too? We can start Nate and have Collins come off the bench…Nate and Kobe would light up the Garden with energy at least…

    I think Kobe is going to leave LA, not sure who else can afford him or want him…would think he’d love the NY stage.

Comments are closed.