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I think you are ignoring another overwhelming trend: rookies struggle. Most of the guys who have come into the league for the first time at a late age and made it big have struggled as rookies relative to their second season and beyond: Cassell, Calderon, Kukoc, Ginobili, Rodman, Nocioni. None of their rookie seasons reconcile with your point about older rookies being closer to their ceilings.

Anyway, Douglas is only in his 23 year old season. He’s getting 16.6 pts and 3.6 assists per 36. He just has to get to 18-20 and 5-7 to be a solid starter, and anything more than that and he probably is a multiple time All-Star you can at least compare to Billups. Other 23 year old rooks who improved: Ewing, McHale, Dominique, John Lucas, Alex English, Lenny Wilkens, Micheal Ray Richardson, Vinnie Johnson, Josh Howard, Kenyon Martin, Dan Majerle, David West, Tim Hardaway, Avery Johnson, Cliff Robinson, David Wesley, Will Bynum, Derrick Coleman (who faded fast), Muggsy Bogues (who faded even faster)… Some guys improved dramatically, while others started out very good and made more modest improvements that would still leave Douglas as a good starter or borderline All-Star (those guys are mostly the first ones listed… for example 19 pts/36 is pretty good for a rookie, but Dominique put in 25 on his career and also improved his career ast/36 47% over his rookie total). As a group they probably improved way less than 19 year olds, but probably in line with the NBA experience bell curve of 22 year old or 21 year old rookies. (I looked for guys whose per minute production increased, but in some cases it was more a matter of efficiency–Cliff Robinson especially.)

Like Ben R, I think you are making too big a deal of small age differences. If Douglas were born a month later he’d still be 23, and at a year older than Lawson’s current age you wouldn’t make nearly as big a deal about the difference. All because of one month.
-Holiday is 4 years younger than Douglas and barely removed from high school. He has WAY more room to grow, that’s fair. He has to grow a lot, because 12 pts/36 and 5.3 ast/36 don’t scream out “All-Star PG.” It’s hard to say he and Douglas are currently equal: Douglas has a decided edge. If they were currently equal I would agree with you, but they’re not.
-Jennings is 20 and maybe you can say he’s equal given the trade-offs between the two. PER and Win Shares per minute put Douglas ahead, though.
-Collison is a year and five months younger and was a four year starter at UCLA. His numbers don’t scream out “amazing” to me, though he’s clearly more of a playmaker and less of a scorer than Douglas at this time. At best they’re equal, Douglas is probably better.
-Lawson is a year and eight months younger and he was a 3 year starter at UNC. He is solidly better than Douglas, but since it’s only one season and their rookie seasons at that I think Douglas is within striking distance: http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&p1=douglto01&y1=2010&p2=lawsoty01&y2=2010
-Beaubois is 21 and has ridiculous scoring numbers, which give him an edge over Douglas right now. Like Douglas, you have to question whether he can do it for a whole season. He has the same six foot combo guard dilemma as Douglas right now, though, with very similar assist numbers.
-Douglas himself is making a position switch, which might make him more likely to improve in the area that he most needs to: playmaking. His eFG% is freakishly high, but so are Beaubois and Lawson’s.

Few guys under 20 make it to the NBA because it takes a very special athlete to do so. That I agree with. Still, even with these guys as time went on more and more pretenders passed the smell test and the NBA had to institute a rule to get an extra year to look at them against better competition.
Even for Jrue Holiday–who I agree has more room to grow… more “potential”–look where he falls among 19 year old rookies in terms of Win Shares: http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&type=totals&per_minute_base=36&is_playoffs=N&year_min=1947&year_max=2010&season_start=1&season_end=1&age_min=19&age_max=19&height_min=0&height_max=99&lg_id=&franch_id=&is_active=&is_hof=&pos=&qual=&c1stat=&c1comp=gt&c1val=&c2stat=&c2comp=gt&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=ws.
I don’t think it’s obvious how he’ll develop at all. Outside of the top 5 player development is all over the place.

My point is not that Douglas will improve by leaps and bounds so much as it is that I doubt every other PG drafted last season will get a million times better. I disagree with looking at a 22 year old next to a 23 year old and saying one has WAY more room to develop. Maybe it was a freakishly good PG draft, and all those guys become HOFers. However, I think a lot of those guys are close to their ceilings, too. It’s the rare player who actually improves significantly.
I am also pointing out that there is enough evidence of guys in their mid-20s going from decent rookie seasons to All-Star and even HOF careers to believe Douglas can do so. The level of variation in the results is so high that it makes it pretty meaningless to me to say “Toney Douglas’s career arc projects to be x.”

That’s not what I said, even in the quote you just quoted.. “closer to his ceiling” means that on average, he will improve LESS than someone further from their ceiling. Improve less, not get worse.

Obviously, this is not a big problem if the player is already pretty good – which Douglas seems to be.

“Am I missing the sarcasm? After this season Billups will have finished four seasons above 60%. He’s at 58% on his career. I think it’s possible for Douglas to become better than Billups, but I also think it will take more than maintaining his scoring efficiency.”

I AM laughing a little bit that people are making serious comparisons to Chauncey Billups for a guy who has played fewer than 800 minutes in his entire career. I think it unlikely that Douglas will maintain a 60% TS in starter minutes, much less for years to come. I don’t know if I’d call it sarcasm, because if he DID maintain that level, combined with his defense, he WOULD be a fantastic, All-Star player.

Note! I agree that per-minute statistics are a great indicator — I’m NOT saying Douglas will get worse because he’ll be “playing against starters,” or whatever. I’m saying a small sample size has a lot of random variation. He’s proven he’s not an inefficient scorer. He hasn’t proven that he’s great. He has a long track record – 4 years of ACC ball, 2/3 of the season as a reserve – and while he seemed to be a useful player, there was nothing to suggest he’d an NBA superstar. He’ll have to play like one for more than 10 games before I take those comps seriously.

As a bottom line I think it’s very hard to argue that Douglas is a more valuable prospect than Lawson or Holliday. I don’t think there are 3 NBA teams who would pick him first. You could put him ahead of Collison and Beaubois, and I’d disagree, with a shrug. Whatever, I’m glad he’s on our side.

One thing… he seems like a good defender… but not a huge impact guy, not yet..

“You’re falling into the same trap NBA decision makers did when they made every talented young guy over 6-10 a top 3 pick for years.”

it’s not remotely the same thing – you are talking about picking guys because they look like basketball players, whether or not they actually do something on the court. Age/upside is only relevant in relationship to performance.

As in, compare him to other players his age. As an LSU freshman, Anthony Randolph was worse than most 1st-round draftees, but if you compared him to other freshmen he was not so bad. And he entered college at 17. Compared to other 17-year-olds — mostly high school seniors and juniors – he was close to the best. Not surprisingly, most people would agree now that he deserved to be a top-5 or 6 pick.

Why are you still on this age thing so hard?”

I guess I need to write that post.

Until then – this is the last time I will explain — of course there is variation, for individual players, yada yada – but there is almost no trend as strong as age – when it comes to predicting development. Yes, some young guys will NOT improve but if you have a 23 year old and a 20 year old who are now equal — the 20-year-old is far more valuable.

Moving on…

I completely agree that people are going way too far about 2010 Knicks draft. I think it was a solid haul. However, you also can’t go too far in the other direction. Holiday would not have been a ridiculous pick by the Knicks at all. He was someone I think had to be on their board at that time given his ability and age. He slipped in the draft, but he was top 10 in plenty of mocks leading up to it. I wasn’t that upset they passed on him since he stunk at UCLA, but I certainly hope they took a long, hard look. There were rumors that Walsh was thinking about taking Lawson at #8, and I think those same rumors were coupled with his scouts preferring Holiday to Lawson.

“Fact: Jeff Teague sucks.”

So far. I think he’ll break out, though. He’s got a lot of talent.

Caleb,

Why are you still on this age thing so hard?

You cannot assume that because someone is younger they will get way better in a few years. It’s certainly reasonable to assume Holiday’ll get better and be a good NBA player, but how much better is not certain (there’s also a chance he never does improve much, though I agree the expectation is that he will). As far as whether to have drafted him or not, while it was obvious he had a ton of potential as a prospect, it was not obvious that he’d shoot 41% from 3 as a rookie… he hit 31% on college 3s. (I like the Holiday family, by the way. Love Justin’s play for UW recently. I hope he takes a step up in his senior season once Pondexter’s gone. Either way I’d love to see him on the Knicks Summer League squad after next season. Could be a defender/spot-up shooting Bowen/Bell type if he busts his ass and probably goes to Europe for a few years.)

“If he can keep up a 60 TS% for a season – WOW! He will be better than Chauncey Billups.”

Am I missing the sarcasm? After this season Billups will have finished four seasons above 60%. He’s at 58% on his career. I think it’s possible for Douglas to become better than Billups, but I also think it will take more than maintaining his scoring efficiency.

“It wouldn’t be totally shocking for TD to end up better than Collison, Beaubois and maybe one of the others, but at 24 he is probably a lot closer to his ceiling than most of that group.”

I don’t get your take on Douglas. He’s good already, but because he’s in his 23 year old season (I repeat 23 year old season, he just turned 24) he’s going to get worse while anyone under 23 will get way better???
You’re falling into the same trap NBA decision makers did when they made every talented young guy over 6-10 a top 3 pick for years.
Just because someone has talent doesn’t mean they will reach it. If Douglas were not playing well this season I would agree with you, but since he is I think it’s silly to say that because he’s two years older than someone they will necessarily pass him by. He’s a definite candidate to improve himself, as he’s switching positions from last season to this season. That makes his room for growth as a playmaker quite high.

Ben R,

I have to disagree a bit on Beaubois. He’s an athlete who is still learning the game. He certainly has the potential to be as good as Douglas on D. His wing-span is massive and he’s a great athlete. He was considered quite raw in Europe, and France (although it has turned out some NBA talent) is the mid-major of Europe. I didn’t expect him to be this good this early, and he’s got a lot of room to grow. I don’t know if he’ll reach that potential, but like I said didn’t expect this much from his this early so I’m ready to be surprised by him.

We’ll see what happens. I like TD – I am not going to get tooooo carried away because he played like an All-Star in 10 games of garbage time, but he definitely looks like part of the puzzle.

I think the age difference is signifigant in regards to Holiday and Jennings, I really don’t care much for Jennings but I do think Holiday has a really good chance to become a better player than Douglas but it is hardly a sure thing.

As for the age difference for Beaubois he has been playing pro ball for a long time so I think he is just as far along in his development as Douglas, as for Teague he has shown absolutely nothing so far this year.

Lawson is a little younger and overall already a better player, but Collison was also a senior and I don’t think the developmental arc is that much different for a 22 year old senior as opposed to a 23 year old senior.

They are all, except Beaubois better playmakers, but only Beaubois and Lawson have shown the efficiency of Douglas and only Holiday has the potential to be as good on defense.

I would say that based on potential and current production I would put Douglas 3rd behind Lawson and Holiday, and like you said if these first 700 minutes are any indication he is going to be pretty good.

… but if the question is, “who would you rather have?” I take it as sort of a draft question – in what order would you pick them? That has a lot to do with future potential, and it’s a totally different story, with Douglas being 2-3 years older than most of these guys (5 years older than Holliday) Holliday is going to be a defensive specialist and a playmaker; right now he’s just not strong enough.

It wouldn’t be totally shocking for TD to end up better than Collison, Beaubois and maybe one of the others, but at 24 he is probably a lot closer to his ceiling than most of that group. I’m not complaining, if his first 700 minutes is any indication, TD is pretty good.

The x-factor in Toney Douglas is his defense.

Lawson – Much better playmaker, better college pedigree, worse defense – advantage Lawson

Holiday – Much younger, better playmaker, much less efficient scorer, much less prolific scorer, worse defense – Tie, potential might make him better but right now much worse

Beaubois – A little younger, slightly better scorer, worse defender – advantage Douglas

Jennings – Younger, much less efficient scorer, much better playmaker, worse defender – advantage Douglas, higher potential but has bust written all over him.

Collison – Much better playmaker, turnover prone, very average scorer, worse defender – advantage Douglas

The only point guard taken after Hill that I would definitively put ahead of Douglas is Lawson, and alot of that is based on my own expectations. Douglas seems to be the real deal. His scoring and defense potentially makes him a very good combo guard off the bench or starter next to a great passing wing even if his playmaking never fully develops. If it does develop and he becomes a legitimate point guard he could be a very good starting point guard.

Isn’t that the main point of the draft? To figure out which “nebulous potential” will turn into a great player?

As far as Ty Lawson goes…
“He’s not a great defender. He’s also already 22 so may not get so much better. For all the talk about how great he is at taking care of the ball, Douglas’s A/TO ratio is actually better.”

Ty Lawson average 6.1 assists per 40 with a 2.6/1 A/TO ratio.. Douglas is 4.0 with a 1.6/1. Lawson also has a higher rate of stealsa, although I wouldn’t argue that he’s a better defender.

Look – Douglas isn’t a playmaking point guard. He looks like a guy who can shoot, score and defend. If he can keep up a 60 TS% for a season – WOW! He will be better than Chauncey Billups. If he ends up around 54, 55, the picture is a little different…

Just saying they are better long-term prospects than Toney Douglas.

Holliday, for example – not a better player NOW – but he is FIVE years younger and already decent so if you think about where he will be in five years it’s a no-brainer. Jennings is four years younger. Etc.

Jeff Teague has barely played but he’s also young (4 years younger than Douglas) and had great #s in college, so he’s still an unknown in my book.

Anyway, I like TD, he’s good to great value for a #29 and IF he keeps up the level of the last 8-10 games he deserves to be in the All-Star game if not the Hall of Fame. I’m just saying that in all likelihood he will come back to earth a little bit.

Also, last year’s draft was just an amazingly strong group of point guards. This year, outside Wall & Bledsoe, not sure anyone is a better prospect than Douglas.