Actually, I think they might be able to pick up Giddons’ option, as well (the Knicks have about $1.7 in cap holds that would come off the books in exchange for the 2 Max Free Agents and Giddons and Walker, so that’s $1.7 plus the $600,000 or so that they would have left under the cap once they signed two max free agents (the 2004 Draft people, Lebron, Wade and Bosh, can max out at $16, 850,000 per).

ETA: Oh, and we have a new thread up on the cap news!

http://www.knickerblogger.net/3581/some-good-news-for-a-change-projected-cap-for-2010-11-to-be-56-1-million.html

Since the Knicks have “Bird Rights” they can go as far over the cap to sign Lee as they please. That’s partially how their payroll was consistently above $100mm when the cap was half that (along with JJ MLE signings). However, as I mention in #55, that only comes into play if the Knicks want to sign Lee to a contract with a first year salary over $10.5mm (I am under the impression the hold is actually 150% of his 2010 salary or $12mm). His cap hold means they have to leave at least $10.5mm or $12mm under the cap in signing free agents or renounce him to get rid of the hold. If they renounce him they forfeit his bird rights and cannot go over the cap to sign him, though they could still re-sign him with left over cap space (not 100% sure if they can still go with the 10.5% increases should they renounce him or have to go down to the 8% level you can give to another team’s free agent). I am no expert, but that’s my understanding.

It’s an interesting question whether the late 1st or 2 2nds (38 & 39) is more valuable. My first reaction is 2 2nds. Not only are the contracts unguaranteed–doesn’t count against the cap and if the guy stinks you can cut him–but you also take two shots instead of one. Your odds with either 38 or 39 are probably substantially lower than with 28 or 29, but maybe not when you double the late 30s odds. Both the 28 and the 38 are probably more likely not to be meaningful NBA contributors than they are to be, so that’s why I would say (off hand) take two shots. I would have to actually look at what your average 28 pick vs. 38 pick did. And maybe try to project who might be there at each pick this year a little, not that that’s always easy to do. If I were someone like Walsh who has been in the NBA for decades, actually, I would keep track of all my draft boards and then I could project how the player I would have theoretically drafted at all the spots historically would have done.

Chances are the Knicks can keep their picks and just buy a first rounder if they feel confident they can absorb that $ plus keep Bill Walker. Never know, but pretty much every season at least one or two 1sts are sold. If they have to decide between Walker and a late first which do they do? My guess is Walker, but I don’t know if that’s the right thing to do or not. (Not implying it isn’t, I really don’t know: Walker has been great as a scorer but otherwise pretty mediocre. He looks like he can stick on a roster for a while, but do you take the chance you get a real steal in the draft? I guess you wait and see what picks are for sale and who is on the board.)

Ricky,

Interesting. I had never heard that either.

Is this true? If so, that would be fantastic. Is this how and why Walsh factored Lee’s 2009 salary? There must be a limit as to how much we can go over the cap w/ a cap hold, right?

“”Should Plan A fail, or should the Knicks go after one max player and two $8 million players, they will have one trick up their sleeve. Those two $8 million players would be able to sign contracts with $2 million bonuses for making the playoffs. In salary cap parlance, those are known as ‘unlikely’ bonuses — unlikely because the Knicks did not make the playoffs this season. And it is to the Knicks’ benefit that two of the other likely heavy hitters in free agency, Chicago and Miami, cannot offer playoff bonuses because that money would be considered ‘likely’ to be earned, and thus would count against those teams’ caps.”"

I calculate that Bosh’s clutch TS% this season is 57.2%. Not equal to what Lee has done, but not bad. When you consider that we’re talking about a small sample size and Bosh’s FG% has fallen 80 points from last season while Lee’s has jumped 180… might be pretty meaningless.

I’m not trying to be a cheerleader for Bosh, just trying to look at the numbers critically.

http://www.82games.com/0910/CSORT6.HTM

Bosh shooting a paltry .383 in crunchtime while our hero Mr. Lee is shooting a macho .680.

Bosh scores more in crunchtime which leads me to believe that he forces a bunch more shots.

It’s amazing that Paul is so high (.507) on this list despite being a guard and logging so many minutes. I think I would shit for a week straight if we somehow got him, but it doesn’t seem very realistic.