Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Sunday, October 26, 2014

The Knicks 2010 Over/Under

This year I decided to have some fun and invite some NBA writers to participate in a little soothsaying. I proposed some possible scenarios via Over/Under and asked them to look into their crystal-ball and divine the outcome to these events. This year I got a good mix of people including: Kevin Pelton of Basketball Prospectus, J.E. Skeets of Ball Don’t Lie, Tom Ziller of Sactown Royalty, Howard Beck of the New York Times, Tommy Dee from the Knicks Blog, NBA analyst Gabe Farkas, in addition to some of KnickerBlogger’s own writing staff (Robert “The Animal” Silverman, Thomas B., Owen, Michael Zannettis, Kevin McElroy, Brian Cronin, and myself).

The Youngsters

Gallo 3 point shooting percentage: 40%
My Pick: Under
Gallinari shot 44% last year, but due to the limited number of minutes he played this could be a fluke. Most of our participants see him faring well from behind the arc this year.

Gallo

Jordan Hill minutes played: 1100.5
My Pick: Under
For Hill to go over, he would only need to average 13.5 minutes a game, which doesn’t seem like much. However the Knicks have a lot of depth on the front court, and Hill has looked unimpressive in the preseason. If he starts racking up DNPs, it’s not likely he’ll make this number. Only Pelton, Ziller, and Farkas see him getting this much playing time this year.

Hill

Toney Douglas True Shooting Percentage: 50%
My Pick: Under
The league average for True Shooting Percentage is 54%, so this should be an easily attainable goal for most NBA players. Our panel was split, but leaned towards the under.

Douglas

Lottery Pick Centers

Darko Milicic total points on the season: Eddy Curry total points on the season
My Pick: Over
Once these two were among the hottest prospects in the draft, now they’re barely able to find court time on a 30-something win team. Darko scores much less per minute, but I guess that’s the point.

Darko and Curry. Two halves of a great center don’t make a whole.

— Mike Zannettis

Darko

UFOs (or I’ll Believe It When I See it)

Jared Jeffries 3 pointers attempted per 36 minutes: 1.5
My Pick: Over
Another split decision by the group. I decided to go with 3 pointers attempted, because that’ll mean a fundamental shift in the way Jeffries plays on offense. And D’Antoni does allow players to shoot threes, even if they can’t hit them.

I think Jared Jeffries will easily exceed 1.5 3 pointers attempted per 36 minutes–if he is healthy– in this offense. The better question is will he have more than 0.5 makes per 36 minutes. I don’t think he can do that without downloading a cheat code, and last I checked there is no slot for a Game Genie on JJ’s shooting hand.

— Thomas B.

Jeffries

(Smells Like) Team Spirit

Number of Knicks traded during the 2010 season: 0.5
My Pick: Under
Kevin Pelton is the lone dissenter. I wonder who’ll be gone?

Trade

Number of Wins From March 1 – April 14th: 9.5
My Pick: Under
The end of the schedule is just brutal.

I ran the numbers on the Knicks’ last 24 games based on SCHOENE’s projections for them and their opponents, factoring in home-court advantage. The final estimate? 9.6 wins. Nice job on the over/under, then.

–Kevin Pelton

Wins

Defensive efficiency: 110.8
My Pick: Under
This is the team’s mark from last year, so the question is technically whether the Knicks defense will improve. Again Pelton is the only one to break from the pack.

DE

Playoff Spots Earned: 0.5
My Pick: Under
Only 5 of 13 picked New York to make the playoffs. The measure of a true optimist.

Although watching [some of the] pre-season games is enough to make one fondly recall even the dark days of Bob Thornton, Jammin’ James Bailey, Ron Cavenall and Chris McNealy, I (gulp) think these ‘Bockers are going to surprise. I’ve got no stat-based or even vaguely logical reason to believe so other than the fact that the conventional wisdom seems to be that this year’s Knicks model is gonna stink real bad. Maybe it’s my nature as a contrarian, but to me, “Conventional Wisdom”‘s as much of an oxymoron as “Jumbo Shrimp” or “Military Intelligence”. I.e. since the ESPN gang/the beat writers are all in agreement, I’m going to go the other way.

In short, playoffs or bust, baybee!

— Robert Silverman

Playoffs

The Free Agents

Number of additional games Nate Robinson plays as a Knick in his career: 82.5
My Pick: Over
To go over, Nate would have to resign with the Knicks. The Magic 8-Ball says “Outlook not so good.”
Nate

David Lee’s Annual Salary in 2011: $7.5M
My Pick: Under
Lots of people went over, but perhaps this is a trick question. He can still average nearly $10M with a 10% raise over 6 years starting at $7.5M. Of course not every contract increases that way, but it’s possible.

Whether or not you agree with it, Lee is a HOT commodity.

— Gabe Farkas

Lee

4 comments on “The Knicks 2010 Over/Under

  1. Thomas B.

    This was a really fun read and a great idea. Zannettis’ comment was one of the more poignant assesments of our situation at center I’ve read. I agree with Robert, “playoffs or bust.” It most likely will be bust, but I’m praying for the best. Go New York, Go New York, Go.

  2. d-mar

    Thanks for this, Mike, and also for not including that dope Berman in your panel.

    Dave D’Allesandro of the Star Ledger predicted 24-28 wins for both the Knicks and Nets. (He used to be the beat writer for the Knicks and now covers the Nets; the newspaper doesn’t even have a writer assigned to the Knicks, probably a cost-cutting move)

    Nice that the Knicks home opener is on Halloween night and opposite game 3 of the World Series. Should be an electric atmosphere..

  3. rohank

    Not to be an ass, but Nate can play more than 82 games with the Knicks without being re-signed as long as we make the playoffs ;-)

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