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Wednesday, October 1, 2014

The Knickerblogger Podcast, Episode III: Jared Dubin

[Editor's note: It's Episode III! No, no Ewoks show up and it's NOT A TRAP. Even better, Bloomberg Sports and Hardwood Paroxysm's (and ESPN, and Grantland and the whole darned interweb's) Jared Dubin joins Bryan Gibberman to talk about….well, let’s let him describe it. Take it away, Bry)

Star forward Carmelo Anthony is no longer a member of the Knicks, as he officially exercised the early termination option in his contract today.

Don’t worry Knickerbocker fans, Amar’e Stoudemire and Andrea Barngani declined their ETOs so everything is ok!!!!!!

Jared Dubin‘s here to run down all of the scenarios including (but not limited to):

  • How does Melo fit in the Knicks future plans?
  • The positives and negatives of the Rockets.
  • The obvious choice of the Bulls.
  • Are the Lakers, Mavericks or Heat a logical landing spot?
  • And finally, are there any other spots that could make sense?

31 comments on “The Knickerblogger Podcast, Episode III: Jared Dubin

  1. ephus

    Great podcast. Production values are strong. Nice fix.

    I agree with Brian that 5 years/103 million should work for both sides.

  2. Farfa

    Just one thought: it seems the Lakers are closing in on Byron Scott.

    Looks like Buss Jr. is going all-in for worst owner in the NBA (kinda ironic that his brother-in-law could help him by putting the muzzle on Dolan). If the Lakers hire Scott they won’t be relevant until 2016, at least, which for the Lakers is the same as multiple 20 wins season for us. Yay! I’m thrilled by this new generation of young’uns owners.

  3. Zanzibar

    Nice interview! Great guests in Dubin and Beck – hope you’re able to continue to find those type of interviewees. And I like the cut of Bryan’s gib…gibberman asks the right questions and follow-ups.

    I found the discussion of Shump/Butler very interesting. Like Gibberman, I tend to think a solid 3andD player like Shump could be had for 4-5m as a rfa in 2015 and Butler around 6-8m. Dubin, on the other hand, placed the figure at 7-10m for each if they’re both playing at the level we would want, noting that the cap figure for teams will be rising. I guess the decision to trade Shump for a draft pick or acquire Butler in Melo S&T hinges in large part on what you believe it would take to sign them as restricted free agents. I don’t believe it’s that difficult to predict future performance in either case. Shump is an excellent rebounder, very good defender, and good to very good spot-up shooter who will make moderate improvement in ball-handling and finishing capabilities. Butler is top 3 wing defender who’s a decent spot-up shooter/cutter/passer. I’d be more than happy to have that Shump at 4.5m and that Butler at 7m on my team. There are no 2015 free agents like LBJ/KD/Howard/Paul. Better to hit some doubles than to build a lot of cap space and then overpay meh free aqents.

  4. Mr. Jowles, who commands your respect

    Did you just call Shumpert a 3-and-D player?

    He shot 33% from 3PT land this year. That does not fulfill the “3″ part of that phrase.

  5. Zanzibar

    Did you just call Shumpert a 3-and-D player? He shot 33% from 3PT land this year.

    The Synergy stats show Shump was a very good to excellent spot-up shooter his first 2 years and I believe his 3FG% improved in the last couple of months of last season after the trade deadline. 33% isn’t bad at all considering the circumstances (personal and team) under which he was playing. I expect he will be a 37-38% spot-up shooter in a more stable environment. Similarly Butler’s 3FG% dropped off this past season, probably at least in part because Thibs played him huge minutes and made him a focus of the offense. I expect he will settle into a 35-36% 3fg%.

  6. lavor postell

    I would much rather pay somewhere between $7-10m for somebody like Wes Matthews, Danny Green or Aaron Afflalo than Butler. If Shump doesn’t improve this year I’d rather just match his qualifying offer and try to trade him to a team over cap and looking for help on the wing rather than giving him $4.5m a year for average production. I’d much rather use that money towards a genuine upgrade on the wing.

  7. Zanzibar

    I favored trading Shump for Nash or Reddick (not Dudley) so I don’t have some romanticized attachment to homegrown draft picks. But I really don’t get why people are so ready to unload Shump for some 20-30 pick who will more than likely turn out to be a bust? To free up cap space so we can then overpay some meh 2015 free agent? Isn’t it more likely that Shump’s performance will improve next season. I mean his +/- was off-the-charts good even last season. Summer work/better coaching/better offensive and defensive schemes/shooting history – all suggest this.

  8. Mr. Jowles, who commands your respect

    Well, I suspect that James Harden will become a better shooter in a more stable environment. Same with Steph Curry, Ray Allen and Andrea Bargnani.

    A career 34% 3PT shooter? Definitely qualifies for 3-and-D.

  9. johnno

    “33% isn’t bad at all considering the circumstances (personal and team)”
    Why does everyone keep making excuses for this guy? What in the world was so tough about his personal circumstances? His coach jerked him around? Sorry, I just don’t see that. Since the day he took over as coach, Woodson started him and played him starters minutes, despite the fact that he did precious little to earn any minutes, much less starters minutes. He called him “Rook?” Big deal. Grow up and toughen up. The front office looked into trading him? So that puts him in the same boat as virtually every athlete who has ever played professionally. He was awful this year offensively and mediocre defensively. He seemed to play hard about five or ten minutes a game before appearing like he lost interest. I’m not saying that Shumpert is a lost cause because I do think that there is a 50-50 chance that he salvages a decent to good NBA career (there is also a 50-50 chance that he becomes Landry Fields — i.e., glued to the bench) but to pretend that he was even mediocre this year is inconsistent with objective reality. By the way, after the trade deadline, he shot 32% from 3, including under 20% for the last 10 games of the season. If you take away those two glorious games in Texas, he shot under 30% from 3 for the year. He had a PER below 10, WS48 of .042, TS% of .480 and he managed to get to the foul line a grand total of 71 times the entire season. He was terrible.

  10. Alecto

    Yeah Shump is mediocre player with a fairly low ceiling–he was also an awful college player. I don’t know why we would continue the project when we could just trade him for a mid 20′s pick and maybe get Hairston (a much more likely candidate for 3-and-d) or Anderson (!!!)

  11. Mr. Jowles, who commands your respect

    For most, the most easily-recalled sequence is Shumpert guarding Wade.

    Mine is him missing every layup attempt he’s ever made.

  12. DRed

    Shump is what he is. A good defender who is not good at scoring. He’s a still a decently productive player despite his offensive shortcomings, and I feel like the general Knickerblogger attitude towards Shump has soured because he didn’t meet your unrealistically high expectations. That being said, while I’d rather trade Timmy, if we need to deal Shump to get a Kyle Anderson or a Jordan Adams, than so be it.

  13. Zanzibar

    A career 34% 3PT shooter? Definitely qualifies for 3-and-D.

    Those numbers are deceiving because he took a lot of 3s off the dribble in his first season. He stinks shooting off any kind of motion (dribble/screens) and I doubt he will improve very much in that regard. But again spot-up stats tell a much different story.

    think that there is a 50-50 chance that he salvages a decent to good NBA career (there is also a 50-50 chance that he becomes Landry Fields — i.e., glued to the bench) but to pretend that he was even mediocre this year is inconsistent with objective reality.

    His +/- was plus 9.2 second only to Melo at 9.8. Worst case is no improvement next season, we don’t make a qualifying offer, and have his cap available. Only downside would be not having that 20-30 pick which is more than likely to be a bust. Most chip teams have a 3andD guy like Shump so I’d much rather bet on improvement and 4-5m signing.

    What in the world was so tough about his personal circumstances?

    He had surgery in off-season. The owner and FO were ticked off at him. He was linked to trade rumors almost weekly. Woodson blamed Shump while letting CAA players skate.

  14. johnno

    “I feel like the general Knickerblogger attitude towards Shump has soured because he didn’t meet your unrealistically high expectations.”
    I can’t speak for others, but that is probably true about me. I was very optimistic about what he was going to be this year, so I was very disappointed. And Jowles is right about my most vivid memory of Shump being his stripping Wade. My world has been flipped on its head this morning — I’m agreeing with DRed and Jowles in the same post. Not sure that’s ever happened before — nor is it likely to happen again.

  15. DRed

    You really want to be in agreement with a guy who didn’t want to draft a guard because we had Landry and Tony Douglas?

  16. Mr. Jowles, who commands your respect

    I just can’t take this willful ignorance seriously. “+/=”? End of conversation.

    20-30 picks aren’t potential “busts.” They’re low-risk moves, through which the Spurs developed a 15-year dynasty. There are highly-ranked-via-PAWS40 players available between 20 and 30 every year, and then into the second round and beyond.

    A bust is a guy like Oden who has the ceiling of David Robinson and plays a hundred games before retiring.

    A bust is a guy like Eddy Curry who gets called “Baby Shaq” and ends up the cause of a 23-59 team.

    A bust is a guy like Andrea Bargnani who gets inexplicably picked at the top of a draft and is the worst NBA starter of the modern era.

    A bust will be a guy like Anthony Bennett who is inexplicably picked at the top of a draft and puts up what might be the worst rookie season for a Top 5 pick in league history. (Austin Rivers wasn’t even that bad, and he was nepotism’s worst.)

    You can’t call the #30 pick a bust unless you think there are franchise-level players available at that time (there usually aren’t).

  17. Mr. Jowles, who commands your respect

    I feel like this board is full of guys who would have a ballet-dancing teenage son and wake up each morning saying, “Yeah, but he could go out for football this year … I mean, look how athletic he is … maybe he just needs some coaching … you know, he could, like, change if he wanted to … he’s got the tools …”

  18. EB

    I once said that Bruce Bowen was Shumpert’s ceiling. Someone disagreed and said that Bowen was his floor. I just kept thinking to myself, well doesn’t Shump actually have to hit 3′s to be a 3 and D player. One good year of shooting doesn’t make Shump a good shooter, just like it didn’t make Fields a good shooter. I love Shump. I probably have a huge bias in his favor. For me, I remember Shump shutting down Calderon after Calderon looked unstoppable against Lin. But if I think what another team might give up for him, then I’m much more pessimistic on Shump. He gets steals, but can’t shoot and isn’t really what I’d consider a lockdown defender.

  19. Zanzibar

    I feel like this board is full of guys who would have a ballet-dancing teenage son and wake up each morning saying, “Yeah, but he could go out for football this year … I mean, look how athletic he is … maybe he just needs some coaching … you know, he could, like, change if he wanted to … he’s got the tools …”

    I feel like this board’s got starry-eyed people who swoon at 20-30picks while looking at them through their rose-colored glasses and guzzling their draftexpress.com kool-aid. They almost never work out plus we’d have the bust’s salary on our books in 2015; at least if Shump doesn’t pan out, we could eliminate his salary entirely from the 2015 cap.

    Oh and btw +/- is a perfectly good stat for determining a player’s impact on a team for a season so long as that player had a sufficient # of minutes. I understand why you wouldn’t like it because defense is factored into the number in a more realistic way than WP48 which just punts on D. If Bargs played 30mpg and Shump played 30mpg, WP48 would assign the same defensive rating to each – yeah that makes helluva lot more sense.

  20. Hubert

    I feel like I watched Iman Shumpert have a very good season filling the 3 & D role in 2012-13, the one year we had competent management. I saw it continue into the playoffs, as well.

    So I don’t think believing that, with proper leadership and a stable environment in place, Shumpert could replicate the season he had when their was proper leadership and a stable environment in place is like believing Andrea Bargnani could suddenly shoot straight.

    He is still at a point is his career where the standard deviation of his performance results is very high. I wouldn’t mind giving him half a season to see if he can improve his trade value, which is probably very low right now.

  21. ephus

    A year ago – after Shumpert’s great performance against the Pacers – I thought that his ceiling was “Sane Sprewell.” It turns out that the guy I was describing plays in cornrows for the Spurs and just was crowned Finals MVP.

    Here is a more realistic assessment. Shumpert could be a very effective rotation player.

    -He has been a remarkably bad open court player, which decreases the value of his steals. I think that he could be taught to be more effective on the break. There are very few NBA players with his physical skills (even with the two-footed jumping) who do not learn how to convert 2-on-1.
    -He has been an inconsistent long distance shooter. Its probably too much to expect him to become a gunner. I think it is fair to hope that he can become a guy who makes enough to keep the defense honest.

    The spectrum seems to be from Thabo Sefolosha – Tony Allen.

  22. iserp

    There are highly-ranked-via-PAWS40 players available between 20 and 30 every year, and then into the second round and beyond.

    Although a prospect with good analytics has more likelihood to develop into a nice NBA player, it is not a sure thing. You have to factor the risk that the player you draft does not pan out.

    I like Shump’s. In a league where defense is undervalued, i think he can provide good value. 3P% right now is middling, but it is a skill that you can acquire (as many players have). I think the knicks have been overoptimistic with Shumpert and have asked him to work on areas that are not his strength, like distributing or his transition game (which is a shame, because he gets the opportunities but just can’t finish). If he concentrates on 3P% on offense and we have a defensive system with less switching, he will shine.

    That said, he has a lower ceiling that lots of prospects around the 20 pick. If we trade shumpert for one, i won’t be mad. However, if we are to sign Melo and try to make the most of the rest of his prime, i would rather keep shumpert.

  23. DRed

    However, if we are to sign Melo and try to make the most of the rest of his prime, i would rather keep shumpert.

    I agree with most of what you said, but if we keep Melo I think we should definitely deal Shump for a pick, because we’re going to have to hit on some longshots to thrive with a max/nearmax Melo on our books.

  24. Nick C.

    LeBron opted out, shouldn’t Melo be using his star power to get him here? If that happens then who gives a sh about Bargs, whether Shump and hit two layups in a row or any other hypotheticals including but not limited to the existence of the Loch Ness Monster, talented Kardashians or the Bitcoin.

  25. DRed

    LeBron opted out, shouldn’t Melo be using his star power to get him here?

    That salary cap tho.

  26. Nick C.

    Who cares? It’s not my money. Besides they could take less. (I’m mostly jesting but none of these points haven’t been made before in this or other contexts.)

  27. DRed

    Melo could offer to play for $20 bucks next season and we’d still be capped out. We got a clown franchise, bro.

  28. johnno

    “Melo could offer to play for $20 bucks next season and we’d still be capped out. We got a clown franchise, bro”
    Before you all attack me and tell me I am being naive, stupid, etc., etc., let me start by saying that I realize that this is never going to happen. However, my guess is that LeBron could sign for the vet minimum with the Knicks and end up making more than if he signed a mega-max contract anywhere else. I realize that he doesn’t benefit from jersey sales or any other NBA licensed merchandise but I think that, if LeBron were to deliver a championship to New York, there would literally be no limit to what he makes off the court. He already makes something like $60 million a year off the court. That would probably jump to over $100 million within weeks of signing with the Knicks.

  29. BigBlueAL

    I think the love for Shump here really escalated after the 2013 playoffs with the way he dominated Pierce defensively and his great Game 6 vs the Celtics and 3rd quarter in Game 6 vs the Pacers. Plus he does provide the occasional highlight reel dunk.

    For the most part though he has been a big tease on offense (Texas road trip this past season for example). I like Shump because he actively tries on D and has had some great games defensively which is rare for a Knicks guard the past decade (especially during his rookie year). But with his contract status changing soon I certainly see the benefit of trading him.

  30. Hubert

    I think the love for Shump here really escalated after the 2013 playoffs with the way he dominated Pierce defensively and his great Game 6 vs the Celtics and 3rd quarter in Game 6 vs the Pacers. Plus he does provide the occasional highlight reel dunk.

    I’m definitely guilty of this. He did should around 42% from 3 in those playoffs, too.

    And let’s not forget that he did a jet up the sideline on the Celtics’ home floor. That was my facebook photo profile all last summer. And I’m a grown up.

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