in response to the big fish in a small market comment, people say new orleans is small market, but honestly… it’s one of the most FUN places in america. if you’re an athlete it’s a great great place to play. mardi gras? cajun food? who dat nation? mardi gras? also, denver isn’t exactly a big market but he did re-up with them after his rookie contract and he is still mulling over his decision about whether to stay or not.

anyway, back to anthony randolph – love the dude but i’m hoping he really grows up. i think amare will be able to help in this regard

Houston is actually a really popular spot for NBA players to live during the offseason. It’s an affluent area with oil money. It’s not high on my list, but a lot of people love the place.

New Orleans is close to both Houston and Florida. It’s got a unique culture and cuisine. There’s also oil money in Louisiana. For me it’s not a plus the way moving to New York or San Francisco or maybe LA would be, but I don’t think it’s a location that would scare a player away. And, again, there’s Chris Paul in New Orleans. Like there was Dwayne Wade in Miami.

What did he have to say about projections for players who have had microfracture surgery? Is the knee less of a concern with Amare? I guess there is precedent for players having long successful careers after that procedure. (Kidd, Mcdyess at least).

I don’t know, I still think it’s the wrong thing to worry about….

Re Paul’s longevity, I can’t believe there is anyone on this site who would trade down any chance to get Paul’s services through the end of his next contract. What his production is at age 32 is a ridiculous thing to worry about, given our record of late and the way our team projects. With our current roster we will struggle to make the playoffs.Also, Paul is a lot better than Isiah, Tiny, Marbs, etc. I would wager a lot of money that his 32-35 looks like Kidd, Nash, and Stockton’s, who are real peers at then position, than any of those other guys, simply because he ha been so outrageously good to date. This is a guy who should have won the MVP award two years ago and probably would have if he were a more established star in a bigger market.  

I would agree, save for this blurb re: his knee. It’s via Simmons, but is fairly sound analysis nonetheless -

“when I heard the Hornets claim CP3 would miss only “four to six weeks” after “minor” knee surgery, my BS Detector started beeping. Especially since we learned that doctors removed Paul’s torn meniscus ligament rather than repairing it.

Intrigued, I asked Will Carroll (the injury expert for Baseball Prospectus and Basketball Prospectus) for his thoughts. Will pointed me toward a piece he wrote about meniscus removal a few years ago. The key section: “One reason teams are so quick to allow this surgery is that the players come back so quickly, usually in a matter of weeks. But … surgeons don’t repair the meniscus in most cases; they just take it out, either in part or in whole depending on the size of the tearing. That leaves the athlete with no shock. Eventually, with the remaining meniscus overstressed and aging, they end up with the bones grinding together. Yes, that’s as bad as it sounds in a game of running and jumping.”

That said, Paul’s still a top-5 player in the league. But, it does temper what one might give up to get him, and if you’re building a team, it means you’ve got a 3-year or possibly 4 year window to win a title.

Miami may not be a sports hotbed, but it’s not a bad place to be if you’re a twenty-something megazillionaire basketball Demi-God. The weather is “nice” (I personally think the weather down there is intolerable, but to each his own), the nightlife is overflowing, taxes are low and the fans aren’t going to revolt if the Heat don’t win the title every year. Miami has plenty of glitz and glamor. New Orleans… not so much.

I don’t think the Golden Girls would have been so keen on joining forces in, say, Houston or Memphis or Utah. Miami has all the trappings a young egomaniac could ever hope for.

Miami is not exactly a sports hot-bed… There are usually more NY fans there when they play Miami teams than Miami fans… LeBron, Wade, and Bosh turned down far more attractive markets (and more money) to go play for what they took to be the best team. Chris Paul would be the draw in NO… Paul, Okafor, etc. and a team that might win 50 games this season… I’m not saying it’s going to happen, but I think it’s a possibility.
NO is also not, in my estimation, as bad a place to live as a good number of NBA cities (haven’t counted).

“Personally, I see Randolph being very productive but I would project third tier star status down the road rather than elite production. Just a hunch though at this point with so little data to play with.”

Agreed. Guess it depends on how you define the tiers… I think I agree with the spirit of your point, though. I’d say 2nd tier is a solid possibility. Certainly by WoW he could be 1st or 2nd tier if he figures out the whole shooting thing and continues to cut his TOs.

re: Paul

Agree. His knees may be a concern, though. Kidd and Nash and Stockton have all had great runs of health. How much is luck vs. preparation vs. pain tolerance… I don’t know.

They’ve got a lot of cap flexibility beyond this season. David West may very well also be an expiring contract, as after this season all he has is a $7.5 mill player option. Paul is probably smart enough to realize that you don’t have to have a big 3, just the best team. I would put him and Dwight Howard, for example, ahead of him, Melo, and Amare as a title contending core. If the Lakers’ Big 5 beats the Heat’s Big 3 in the Finals no one is going to care about 3. He also has little leverage to get himself traded besides totally trashing his reputation and going against his morals (which appear to be strong) and tanking the season. It doesn’t matter *that* much whether he thinks NO is the best situation for him, but more so whether NO thinks keeping him for the time being is best for them.

His height and knees give him more incentive to sign the biggest contract he possibly can as soon as he possibly can… That would be with his team before he hits free agency. NO might be considering this.

Robert,

There is a troubling trend, no doubt, but I wouldn’t say Chris Paul’s game is completely reliant on his speed. Of the short guards you list the only one I’d really call comparable to Paul offensively is KJ. Most of the short guards you list were very inefficient their whole careers.

Height and skill set might be getting confused a little here too… Marbury, for example, was only 0.75 inches shorter than “big PG” Deron Williams at his pre-draft measuring. Penny Hardaway was a huge PG who had bad health and burned out early. Steve Francis is another big PG who burned out. The guys who burn out rarely have an outside shot as good as CP3′s, regardless of their height. Most weren’t great playmakers (some were good-very good). Once their quickness was gone, they had nothing to fall back on. (Of course, if his knees go it won’t matter.) The guys who did not burn out had great outside shots (Nash, Cassell, Stockton, Billups) and/or playmaking ability (Kidd, Miller, Nash, Stockton, Jackson).

A lot of the guys who burned out have character issues that precipitated it: Iverson’s ego, Marbury and Isiah’s …what to say…, Stoudamire’s pot smoking. Brandon had a great 32 games at 31 years old, but had no cartilage in his knees (which I guess also might be the case with C3?).

Chris Paul is ridiculously good. Not just an All-Star PG, he’s as good as anyone who has played the position. He’s also 25 this season. If he plays till he’s 32, that’s 8 seasons… pretty long-term. Till 30 is still 6 seasons from now. Hard to think about 6-8 years down the road as a GM. How many GMs will still hold their current job 6-8 years from now?

I agree that his knees are a big concern. However, if you have the chance to get Paul or a big PG who is half as good (say Deron Williams… who is only 6’1.75″) can you really justify getting the big PG because he’s going to be better 7-9 years down the road? Paul could become about 1/2 as valuable as his peak and still be one of the better PGs in the league.

Re Anthony Randolph, this is a great piece, hearkening back to the pioneering Eddy Curry study, the original piece that got me into K-blogger. I hope that it turns out much differently with this prospect. Personally, I see Randolph being very productive but I would project third tier star status down the road rather than elite production. Just a hunch though at this point with so little data to play with.

Re Paul’s longevity, I can’t believe there is anyone on this site who would trade down any chance to get Paul’s services through the end of his next contract. What his production is at age 32 is a ridiculous thing to worry about, given our record of late and the way our team projects. With our current roster we will struggle to make the playoffs.

Also, Paul is a lot better than Isiah, Tiny, Marbs, etc. I would wager a lot of money that his 32-35 looks like Kidd, Nash, and Stockton’s, who are real peers at then position, than any of those other guys, simply because he ha been so outrageously good to date. This is a guy who should have won the MVP award two years ago and probably would have if he were a more established star in a bigger market.

JK47: @52 Paul/Unknown SG/Melo/West/Okafor would be a playoff team, but remember that “threesomes,” for lack of a better word, are all the rage these days. That proposed Hornets team would not be able to beat the Heat anytime soon if ever, and wouldn’t be able to add a third star because of Okafor’s bad contract. I don’t think Paul relishes the idea of getting his butt kicked by the Golden Girls for the remainder of his career, and all signs seem to say he wants
his own “threesome.”As for Paul’s knees, I kind of agree. He’s a brilliant player, but you have to wonder how good an investment he is, long-term. I won’t be heartbroken if he doesn’t come here.  

Degenerative knee condition or not, smallish PG’s that rely on speed/athleticism tend to fade fast and peak early. Kevin Johnson, Isiah Thomas, Tiny Archibald, Allen Iverson, Marbs, Damon Stoudamire, Terrell Brandon — all were more or less done by age 30-32.

If you’re looking for a long-term investment, it’s the 6’3″+ PG’s whose game’s weren’t relient on otherworldy quickness that last until their mid-late 30′s. Nash, Kidd, Billups, Stockton, Mark Jackson, Andre Miller, Sam Cassell, etc.

And on a personal note, let’s please keep the moniker “The Golden Girls” going…

As for Paul’s knees, I kind of agree. He’s a brilliant player, but you have to wonder how good an investment he is, long-term. I won’t be heartbroken if he doesn’t come here.