Playoff Odds 04/05/04

Curious at how the seeds to the playoffs might turn out, I got a little ambitious. It all started from something I learned a while back. That is you can calculate the probability of a team winning a game if you know: the home team’s record at home, the road’s team record away, and the league’s home win %. I used this little formula in a previous column to talk about the Knicks’ chances to win their 5 next games.

I decided to see how far I could take this. So I inserted all the home/road records of every team in the league into a spreadsheet. Then I put in the remaining schedule for the entire league. I determined probability of the winner of each game using this formula. Based on these odds & using Excel’s random number generator, I played out the rest of the season 1000 times.

The East:

Team	Ewins	EW%	Seed1	Seed2	Seed3	Seed4	Seed5	Seed6	Seed7	Seed8	Miss


IND 59.9 .730 1.00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00
DET 54 .658 .00 .00 1.00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00
NJN 48.5 .591 .00 1.00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00
MIL 42 .512 .00 .00 .00 .77 .19 .04 .00 .00 .00
MIA 40.9 .499 .00 .00 .00 .17 .58 .23 .02 .00 .00
NOR 40.1 .489 .00 .00 .00 .05 .22 .62 .09 .01 .00
NYK 38.3 .467 .00 .00 .00 .00 .01 .09 .66 .24 .00
BOS 37.5 .457 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .02 .22 .70 .05
CLE 34.8 .424 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .01 .03 .96
PHI 34.1 .416 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .01 .99
TOR 32.2 .393 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 1.00
ATL 27.3 .333 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 1.00
WAS 25.6 .312 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 1.00
CHI 23.8 .290 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 1.00
ORL 20.3 .247 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 1.00
[Ewins = Expected # of wins, EW% = Expected winning percentage]In the East, the top 3 seeds are already set in stone. Indiana, New Jersey and Detroit will be the top 3. New Jersey clinches the #2 spot, due to winning the weak Atlantic. Milwaukee has a 77% chance of taking the 4th seed (a.k.a. the last home field spot for the first round), followed by Miami (17%), and New Orleans (5%). More good news for Bucks’ fans, they won’t likely have worse than a 5th seed (4%). Miami can fall as far as the 7th seed, but even that is a small (2%) chance.

Speaking of that 7th seed (we know Penny Hardaway isn’t anymore), the Knicks appear to be the favorites here, with a 66% probability of facing the Nets in the first round. After the events of this weekend, that should prove to be a most interesting matchup. Boston might win the 7th seed, and the Hornets have a 9% chance of falling that far as well. If either Cleveland (4%) or Philly (1%) makes the playoffs, it’ll be at the expense of the Celtics.

The West:

TEAM	Ewins	EW%	Seed1	Seed2	Seed3	Seed4	Seed5	Seed6	Seed7	Seed8	Miss


SAC 56.73 .692 .55 .02 .31 .10 .02 .00 .00 .00 .00
LAL 56.23 .686 .25 .18 .45 .10 .02 .00 .00 .00 .00
MIN 55.69 .679 .12 .41 .11 .36 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00
SAS 55.53 .677 .07 .39 .13 .41 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00
MEM 52.55 .641 .00 .00 .00 .03 .77 .20 .00 .00 .00
DAL 51.41 .627 .00 .00 .00 .00 .20 .80 .00 .00 .00
HOU 44.77 .546 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .90 .07 .03
UTA 42.6 .520 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .03 .43 .54
POR 42.43 .517 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .04 .32 .64
DEN 42.09 .513 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .03 .18 .79
GSW 37.09 .452 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 1.00
SEA 36.93 .450 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 1.00
LAC 28.94 .353 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 1.00
PHO 27.83 .339 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 1.00
The West isn’t as simple. Four teams are vying for the #1 seed. Just looking at the expected wins column, and there is little to separate them (barely more than one win). The Kings are the favorites, but at 55% are hardly locks for the top spot. If you add in the Lakers’ 25%, there is an 80% chance that the Pacific will have the top seed.

Minnesota (12%) and the Spurs (7%) can still land the top spot. However since there is an 80% chance that the Pacific gets the #1 seed, then that means there is the same probability that these two teams will have the #2 seed. The Timberwolves (41%) have a slight edge over the Spurs (39%) here. There is the tiniest chance (2%) that the Lakers or Kings will slip to the 5th spot, and in that scenario, the Grizzlies would grab the last home field spot (#4).

There are 6 teams that can avoid the lottery. Actually Dallas and Memphis have guaranteed them no worse than the 6th spot. The Rockets only have a 3% probability of missing the playoffs, and will likely get the 7th seed. That leaves Utah (46%), Portland (36%), and the Nuggets (21%) to fight for the final spot (although technically any of them can be as high as #7). It’d be nice to see the Nuggets win that 8th seed, and hopefully critics won’t blame only him for not being able to get out of the first round, like they do to Kevin Garnett.

62

The Knicks have not signed Vin Baker (yet), and the Knicks don’t play again until Friday. I don’t have a comment (yet) on Kurt Thomas, so what else is there to talk about?

WARNING: This column has little to nothing to do about the Knicks or basketball stats.

All I have to say about this, is I have both T-Mac and Gilbert Arenas on my fantasy squad. In case you don’t know just yet, they’ve combined for 102 points last night. Don’t email me with kudos just yet, because I’m still in last place.

As of this post there is nothing up at Orlando Magic Fan yet, but I’m sure there will be something there in a bit. I found them by putting Orando Magic Blog into a Yahoo! search. Of course it was the first site to come up. I decided to put New York Knicks Blog into a Yahoo! search to see where this lowly site ranks. I’m not even in the top 100. Not that there’s anything wrong with Michael Avallone’s Knicks’ Clicks (which I highly recommend), but if anyone has any advice to get me higher in their rankings, I would be most interested to hear about it.

One thing about the number 62, is that for a long time it was one of the holy grails of baseball stats. Roger Maris hit 61 home runs in 1961, to break the great Babe Ruth’s record by one. Home run number 62 would be another record breaking shot. Everyone knows that McGwire hit #62 back in 1998. I’m sure we all remember something or another about that game, whether it was the ball barely clearing the fense, Sammy Sosa being on hand, or McGwire lifting his kid up in celebration.

The ironic part of this story is that a few people predicted Big Mac hitting #62, and they did so 11 years before! Yes back in 1987, an arcade version of RBI baseball was released. It was similar to the NES version, but instead of having the best teams of ’86 & ’87 it had the best players of all time on 10 teams. For example, the Yankees consisted of Ruth, Mantle, and Mattingly, while Boston had Williams, Yaz, and Boggs.

Oakland had McGwire, who had just come off his rookie season where he hit 49 home runs. In an effort to stay timeless, they made projections on some players. Canseco stats would read 54 homers, while Cards slugger Jack Clark had 41. Neither would ever hit that many home runs in a single season. However McGwire’s blast a decade later would make them look like mind readers, since the programmers decided to give him 62 home runs.

Sure if they had real psychic power, they could have put him in a Cards uniform with 70 dingers. Despite that, it’s probably one of the better prediction jobs I’ve seen, and it wasn’t done by some baseball experts, but rather video game programmers.

The Best & Worst Offenses & Defenses

I dragged this lake looking for corpses
Dusted for prints, pried up the floorboards
Pieces of planes and black box recorders
Don’t lie

— “Private Eye”
Alkaline Trio

If you wanted to know quickly which teams had the best & worst offense & defense in the league, you might go to ESPN.com NBA stats page. You can click on the team-by-team comparison link and you’d see which teams have scored and given up the most points. You can sort the teams by a few different stats, and for this example you might use points scored per game and opponents points scored per game. So according to this you might conclude the best NBA offenses are:

Rank	Type	Pts
1	SAC	104.6
2	DAL	103.3
3	SEA	97.8
4	LAL	97.6
5	MIL	97.1
6	DEN	97
7	MEM	97
8	LAC	96.5
9	MIN	95.5
10	ORL	94.9
11	BOS	94.6
12	GS	94.4
13	PHO	93.6
14	CLE	92
15	POR	92
16	NO	91.9
17	NYK	91
18	NJ	90.7
19	WAS	90.6
20	SAS	90.1
21	IND	89.8
22	ATL	89.7
23	CHI	89.6
24	PHI	89.6
25	DET	89.6
26	UTA	88.9
27	HOU	88.3
28	MIA	88
29	TOR	84.9

And the best defenses:

Rank	Type	Pts
1	SAS	83.9
2	IND	84.9
3	HOU	85.1
4	NJ	86.5
5	DET	87
6	TOR	87.3
7	MIA	89.4
8	MIN	90
9	UTA	90.6
10	PHI	91.2
11	NO	91.8
12	NYK	92.6
13	POR	93.6
14	LAL	94
15	MEM	94.4
16	GS	95.2
17	ATL	95.2
18	DEN	95.3
19	CLE	95.3
20	MIL	95.4
21	CHI	95.7
22	WAS	96.2
23	BOS	96.6
24	PHO	97.2
25	SAC	97.3
26	SEA	98.8
27	LAC	98.8
28	DAL	99.8
29	ORL	100.7

But if you’ve ever seen an NBA game, you know some teams’ offenses are faster than others. This is because some teams like to run down the shot clock because they want to slow the tempo, where others like to take the first or second available open shot, because their offense is good enough to get an efficient shot off quickly. A team like Dallas or Sacramento would have more chances to score than let’s say Miami or Toronto. So the team that scores the most points in a game may not have the best offense in the league, because they simply might have the fastest offense in the league.

Well some smart people have already thought about this. They said, maybe instead of looking at how many points are scored per game, we should see how many points are scored per possession (or 100 possessions). Unfortunately the people at ESPN have never thought to ask this question, or at least have not thought it important enough to put it on their stat page. Luckily the good people at 82games.com have. You can’t sort the teams all nice like the ESPN page, and they don’t even have a page where all the teams are displayed. They only have the information by team pages. But with some patience, a good spreadsheet program, and 10 minutes of free time, you can do some quick analysis yourself.

So here we are, the best offenses in the NBA, by points per 100 possessions (pPts):

Rank	Type	Pts	Poss	pPts	OldRank	DRANK
1	SAC	104.6	91	114	1	+0
2	DAL	103.3	91	112	2	+0
3	SEA	97.8	89	109	3	+0
4	MIN	95.5	87	109	9	+5
5	LAL	97.6	90	108	4	-1
6	MIL	97.1	90	107	5	-1
7	MEM	97	90	107	6	-1
8	LAC	96.5	90	107	8	+0
9	POR	92	86	107	14	+5
10	DEN	97	91	106	7	-3
11	ORL	94.9	89	106	10	-1
12	GS	94.4	89	106	12	+0
13	NO	91.9	88	104	16	+3
14	IND	89.8	86	104	21	+7
15	UTA	88.9	85	104	26	+11
16	BOS	94.6	91	103	11	-5
17	PHO	93.6	91	103	13	-4
18	NJ	90.7	88	103	18	+0
19	SAS	90.1	87	103	20	+1
20	DET	89.6	86	103	23	+3
21	HOU	88.3	85	103	27	+6
22	MIA	88	85	103	28	+6
23	CLE	92	90	102	15	-8
24	NYK	91	89	102	17	-7
25	PHI	89.6	87	102	24	-1
26	WAS	90.6	90	100	19	-7
27	ATL	89.7	90	99	22	-5
28	CHI	89.6	90	99	25	-3
29	TOR	84.9	85	99	29	+0

The first team that jumps into the top 5, that wasn’t there before, is the Timberwolves at #4. Even though they only score 95.5 points a game, they would score 109 points if given 100 possessions. They just play at a slow pace of only 87 offensive possessions per game. (The average pace is 88.4 possessions/game). Portland also jumps into the top 10, while Utah & Indy move into the middle from the bottom 10. The big losers are Cleveland, Washington, and my own beloved Knicks, who drop to 6th worst.

Now for the defenses:

Rank	Type	Pts	Poss	pPts	OldRank	Diff
1	SAS	83.9	87	96	1	+0
2	IND	84.9	86	98	2	+0
3	NJ	86.5	88	98	4	+1
4	HOU	85.1	85	100	3	-1
5	DET	87	86	100	5	+0
6	TOR	87.3	85	102	6	+0
7	MIN	90	88	102	8	+1
8	LAL	94	90	103	14	+6
9	PHI	91.2	87	104	10	+1
10	NO	91.8	87	104	11	+1
11	NYK	92.6	89	104	12	+1
12	MEM	94.4	90	104	15	+3
13	DEN	95.3	91	104	18	+5
14	MIA	89.4	85	105	7	-7
15	MIL	95.4	90	105	20	+5
16	UTA	90.6	85	106	9	-7
17	GS	95.2	89	106	16	-1
18	ATL	95.2	89	106	17	-1
19	CLE	95.3	89	106	19	+0
20	CHI	95.7	90	106	21	+1
21	WAS	96.2	90	106	22	+1
22	BOS	96.6	91	106	23	+1
23	SAC	97.3	91	106	25	+2
24	PHO	97.2	90	107	24	+0
25	POR	93.6	86	109	13	-12
26	DAL	99.8	91	109	28	+2
27	SEA	98.8	89	110	26	-1
28	LAC	98.8	90	110	27	-1
29	ORL	100.7	89	112	29	+0

Not much difference here among the top teams. The Lakers move into the top 10. Meanwhile Miami and Utah drop out of the top 10 into the middle of the pack, while Portland takes the biggest dip to the 5th worst defense in the league.

Unfortunately it’s hard to judge the Knicks current team using these tools. The team has experienced a large turnover in their roster. These stats are for the Knicks over the entire year, which includes players like Van Horn, Charlie Ward, as well as Marbury and Penny Hardaway. However we can use it to learn a bit about tonight’s opponents, the Kings. The Kings are the team’s top scoring offense both by points per game, and by points per possession. Their 91 possessions/game tell you that they have one of the league’s fastest paced offense. Their defense is lacking, 7th worst in the league.

So then you might ask, if they have a great offense and a poor defense, shouldn’t they be an average team? Not necessarily. If anything they might be a little bit better, since their Pythagorean expected wins says they should have about 1 or 2 more wins, based on their points for/against. However, you can look at the offensive numbers above, and realize that they are a LOT better offensively than most teams. The difference between them and the #5 Lakers, is 6 points (per hundred possessions). This is the same difference between the #5 Lakers and #23 Cleveland.

So the Kings’ offense is very good, which is why they have the best record in the league.