Ted Nelson:
If there payroll is $47 mill (and TD’s contract is a player option, and I think Timo’s is, but there are also cap holds… off-hand I think it would be more like $45 or $46 mill)… They don’t have room for a max FA… The cap’s at about $58 mill I think. Unless it expands significantly they can’t make a max offer. Am I missing something?  

Like I said, it’s all moot. But to answer your question: let’s assume a) the current CBA is extended indefinitely (highly unlikely); b) the Knicks don’t add any players between now and 2012 (highly unlikely); and c) the Knicks don’t dump any of the 2012 contracts between now and 2012 (unlikely). All that unlikely stuff established, let’s now assume that the cap rises $1 million in 2011 and another $1 in 2012 (likely, as it went up $1 million in 2010, and that was after a memo from the league preparing for a 5% drop). So a cap of $60 million in 2012 would leave the Knicks with about $15 million to spend, which may not be officially “max money” but it is “Miami Max Money”, i.e.– enough to get superstars to take a $110 million contract instead of $125 million a la Bosh, Bron, and Bwade.

Ted Nelson: Would the Knicks have been better off getting Vin Baker and watching him drink his way out of the NBA on a max deal?
I haven’t heard anyone say that the Nets 4-team deal is dead, just on hold while the Nuggets see what else is out there.  

The point was that the Knicks had a package they’d sold to the fans. Then when it fell through, they took half the package. Vin Baker was to be Ewing’s replacement. He hadn’t fallen off the face of the earth yet. As it was they traded one of the greatest Knicks ever for Glen Rice– a guy who played the same position as Sprewell and Houston. If Denver agrees to a lesser package than the Nets one, they could have similarly disappointed fans that we have had (look at me: clearly I’m still bitter over it.) That was my point. Not that Vin Baker would have been awesome as a Knick.

I agree about not mortgaging the future. At the end of the day, I’d rather not see the trade. Probably not even for one of Gallo/AR, but definitely not for both. Statistically I can project (in my head) both of them to be about as good as or better than Melo, but I can also understand taking the lower risk move of bringing in the player who is already there. That rationale makes more sense if it’s one and not both.

I disagree a bit about Melo’s value. I don’t think he’s All-NBA first team, nor do I expect him to ever be that (or at least deserve it). I do think he’s a perennial All-Star and probably at least a top 20 guy in the NBA… a guy you can argue for the 3rd team or even 2nd team on a good year. I think some (most maybe) overrate scoring volume, but I also don’t find it worthless or inconsequential in determining player value. (Especially when you’re getting it at an above-average efficiency like a Kobe or Melo.)

If they’re a solid playoff team, I don’t really think it’s a scary proposition. The Knicks are still in draft hell for 2 more seasons and it’s really a matter of how good they can be without the Melo trade. If solid playoff team is the most likely case and that’s where they get with Melo… not bad. But, yeah, I’d also prefer to roll the dice a little and see what else comes up. If the Knicks do trade for Melo, I may not be thrilled but I’ll be excited to root for the team. I wouldn’t cry with joy if the Knicks got Kobe the way some would, but I’d be pretty happy. I don’t think Melo is that much worse than Kobe. I find comparing him to, say, Marbury or Crawford or Eddy Curry to be a worthless waste of time. Amare and him is the start of a good offense with some other players around them.

Trading for and signing him to an extension is a scary proposition, considering that the franchise has finally freed itself from the depths of cap & draft hell.

The Honorable Cock Jowles: Please. Not another five years of mediocrity.  

I’m not really in favor of a big Melo trade, but it’s still not like the Knicks are looking at title contention without him. I don’t know what you’re defining as mediocrity. The past 5 years they’ve been worse than mediocre. This season they’re widely considered to be on the playoff bubble… which, if the speculation proves to be correct, would be pretty mediocre.

Z: Theoretically (and moot too!, considering a new CBA will be in place) the Knicks would have enough to sign Chris Paul or some other max-level 2012 free agent.

If there payroll is $47 mill (and TD’s contract is a player option, and I think Timo’s is, but there are also cap holds… off-hand I think it would be more like $45 or $46 mill)… They don’t have room for a max FA… The cap’s at about $58 mill I think. Unless it expands significantly they can’t make a max offer. Am I missing something?

And with the maybe $11-13 mill the Knicks will have to offer, there’s the question of whether a CP3/Deron is going to leave tens of millions on the table to play with two guys who are making significantly more.

JK47: Afflalo is a role player, but he plays a role we sorely need: lockdown perimeter defender.

I’ve never really thought of Afflalo as a lockdown defender. Above average maybe, but I’d call WC a considerably better defender. Good shooter, but not a great athlete.

Z: This could also be the Nugget’s version of the Patrick Ewing trade.

Would the Knicks have been better off getting Vin Baker and watching him drink his way out of the NBA on a max deal?
I haven’t heard anyone say that the Nets 4-team deal is dead, just on hold while the Nuggets see what else is out there.

ess-dog: I don’t like being a Melo supporter here, but from the franchise’s perspective, you have to believe a Melo/Amare team sell a lot more tickets/merchandise/advertising.

In the short-term, yes. In the medium- and long-term winning is what’s going to sell tickets. Knicks had plenty of big names during the Isiah years. When those guys are overpaid and under-producing I think it can backfire and alienate a fan base… between Amare and Melo you’re spending $40 mill per and expecting 50+ wins. Can they do that? Furthermore, Danilo and AR can become “stars” in their own rights if their play warrants it. Even if they’re not “stars” they can become fan favorites.

ess-dog: u

I think they are debatable. I’m no sports economist, but everything I’ve heard is that wins are the top determinant of ticket sales (at least relative to market size).

ess-dog: It does make sense to get Amare a team that can win now

You could also argue that it makes sense to keep the young guys to win both now and later. It’s not clear to me that a team with Melo would win any more games this season than a team with both Gallo and AR. Gallo and AR both bring things to the table that Melo does not bring. Either one could be as good as Melo this season, possibly both or possibly neither.

2011:

Anthony: $18,949,913
Amar’e: $18,217,705
Felton: $7,560,000
Turiaf: $4,360,000
Mozgov: $2,566,800
Douglas: $1,145,640
Chandler: (QO) $3,099,851

Total: (no options) $52,800,058

2012:

Anthony: $20,939,654
Amar’e: $19,948,799
Mozgov: $2,794,621
Douglas: $2,067,880
2011 draft pick: $1,400,000 (approx)

Total: $47,150,954

Theoretically (and moot too!, considering a new CBA will be in place) the Knicks would have enough to sign Chris Paul or some other max-level 2012 free agent. However, if impatient, the Knicks could add another piece at the deadline this February since they would have only the mid-level exception to work with in 2011 either way. It wouldn’t cost them anything salary wise in the summer to take on salary during the season. They would only have the expiring contracts of Azubuike and Mason to offer though, totaling $4,700,000.

So that’s what we’d be looking at. No great flexibility, but not crippling either.

Starters: Felton, Afflalo, Anthony, Stoudemire, Mozgov
Bench: Chandler, Turiaf, Azubuike, Douglas, Mason, Fields, Rautins
13-15: Ewing Jr., S Williams, one other warm body

That looks like a pretty good team to me. Maybe Afflalo wouldn’t be available, but he’s exactly the type of player I’d want at SG. He’s one of the best defensive SGs in the NBA– advanced defensive metrics like him and the consensus among Nugs fans is that he is a fine defender.

Knicks get Anthony
Denver gets Igudala and Chandler
Sixers get Curry and Gallinari or Randolph

Denver saves face by bringing in a star and a young guy. Sixers save lots of money and rebuild with youth. Anthony ends up at a place he’d actually extend at. Win, win, win (all things considered).