Have you seen the TS% for Nene, Billups and Afflalo?!?!?

.687 for Nene!!!!
.626 for Bullups!!!
624 for Afflalo!!!

Holy crap!!!

Either Billups, Nene, Afflalo and JR Smith are freaking awesome offensive players or Melo ain’t that bad.

Billups and Nene are awesome offensive players (and Afflalo and Lawson have been good this year on offense, too, especially Afflalo). JR Smith is not that good, that is true, but there is a ton of offensive talent on Denver (Nene is having a re-donk-you-lus season so far).

Well, for starters, there is this:

PER
Carmelo Anthony 20.8
Landry Fields 14.8

But I’m not going to say that PER is the definitive stat, just like WS/48 is not the definitive stat. They both have their shortcomings. PER tends to overrate volume scorers, while WS/48 tends to overrate role players on good teams. There is no statistical formula that is “the truth.”

There are more Win Shares to go around when a team wins lots of games, so a dude like James Jones can rack up crazy Win Shares numbers despite doing little more than standing at the three point line and draining open jumpers after the defenses have collapsed on LeBron and Wade. That is an obvious flaw of the system. James Jones is not a more valuable player than Amar’e Stoudemire in any universe that I’m aware of.

I’m well aware of how the Win Shares concept works, being an old school baseball sabermetrics geek from way back in the 80′s. It works better in baseball, in my opinion, for reasons that are kind of arcane… But in short, basketball is a more dynamic game than baseball and less quantifiable by statistics. There are more aspects of basketball that do not show up in the box score.

And I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again– the Nuggets are one of the best offensive teams in the league, despite the supposed crappiness of the guy who is the centerpiece of that offense. If the Nuggets were a poor or even average offensive team I might buy the argument that Melo’s play is actually a detriment, but the fact is that they’re #5 in the NBA in offensive rating. Either Billups, Nene, Afflalo and JR Smith are freaking awesome offensive players or Melo ain’t that bad.

Of course Landry is a very nice fit here and his contract is very appealing, but to say he’s more “productive” than Carmelo Anthony is not true in my book, just as it’s not true that James Jones is more “productive” than Amar’e Stoudemire.  

I don’t know what your “book” is. My book is Stumbling on Wins. I dont think WS/48 are perfect, they give big penalties to folks that miss alot of shots. But blown scoring chances should be a hit. And with Melo’s 525 TS%–well below average–he should take a hit. You cant say its system or place in the offense. I gave you examples of players that have high usg but the also are efficient scorers so they have a higher WS/48.

Melo had some good years but this year he is not contributing to wins the way his contemporaries are. This year Fields is doing a better job than Melo at contributing to wins. Doesnt it make sense that players with near identical usg but far better efficiency are deemed to be better contributors. It is more than just raw points or the clutch shot you remember. So tell me what system is best? PER, Win Shares, raw data, advanced stats, or just your own view of what makes a player good? So every now and then melo drops 44 so you can ignore the fact that he is at or below average in just about ever other category? Perhaps your book is “Through Iverson coated glasses: How raw scoring out put makes everything else a non-factor.”
Tell me, how do you use numbers to evaluate Melo and Fields. You really should get a copy of Stumbling on Wins from your local library.

RJ in Brooklyn:the more I consider it the more I think Melo’s not a good fit. he’s not a good shooter, especially from 3, and isn’t much of a defender. we need depth at PG, rebounding, and guys who do little things/dirty work. this NJ scenario is worse than what Melo has in Denver.  

If Gallo can develop a midrange and back-to-the-basket game then we definitely don’t need him.

the more I consider it the more I think Melo’s not a good fit. he’s not a good shooter, especially from 3, and isn’t much of a defender. we need depth at PG, rebounding, and guys who do little things/dirty work. this NJ scenario is worse than what Melo has in Denver.

Z-man: The only PF I would trade Amar’e straight up for is Blake Griffin.That guy is a freak.Amar’e is just more fun to root for than Bosh or Boozer.  

On cue, Blake just destroyed David Lee today. Lee fouled out in 25 minutes with 8 pts and 3 rebounds.

The Pistons shouldn’t have to give up a good first round pick just to dump Hamilton when it is the Nets who are desperate for quality veterans to surround Melo.

Here’s two things I don’t get about the deal…

1. Why would Melo be happy with Billups and Hamilton as the veteran core? Those guys are surely getting close to their last years of efficiency, right?

2. What to make of the statement from Billups’ agent about how he would refuse to report to the Nets if traded to them?