So, I’m watching both of the games tonight, and in both of the games, a team has the ball down either 5 or 6 points with about half a minute left. In both instances, the announcers were stating “You don’t have to go for a three here,” and in both instances, the teams did not, in fact, go for threes.
Here’s my request. From my perspective, I think it is absolutely absurd to not go for three when you’re down five-six points with thirty seconds or less left (presuming your opponent can hit free throws with some expertise – my strategy might be different if I was playing, say, the Memphis Tigers).
Obviously, because two different sets of announcers think otherwise, and two other professional basketball coaches agreed with the announcers, some people who are very knowledgeable about basketball disagree with my position.
So my request is some statistical analysis on what is a better statistical move down five-six points with thirty seconds left. Does it make more sense to go for the quick two? Off the top of my head, I cannot think of a way to measure it, so I thought I’d toss it to you brilliant readers out there.