Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Sunday, October 26, 2014

Some Plays Count: December 12th, Part 3

I found four interesting plays from the December 12th game against Denver, and decided to break down film on them to gain a better understanding of the Knicks. Originally I had them as one big video, but it got a bit long, so I decided to give each play its own video. Here is part 3 where Stoudemire and Gallo run the pick & roll, with a little help from Al Harrington.

34 comments on “Some Plays Count: December 12th, Part 3

  1. Frank

    Nice work Mike — when we first drafted Gallo there was a lot of talk about him becoming the point forward at times — we definitely should consider that – and we’ll probably see lots of Turkoglu/Howard PnR tonight.

    Meanwhile — what’s the over/under on Howard’s rebound total tonight? 22?

  2. massive

    Nice work here, its good to see that we can run plays like this when Felton is off the floor. This allows Toney Douglas to play the off-guard, his best position, a little more with Gallo playing point-forward. But, in unrelated news:

    http://basketball.realgm.com/src_wiretap_archives/70839/20101229/houston_shopping_virtually_everybody/

    Apparently Morey (or Chad Ford) thinks Kevin Martin is overpaid. He has a sky high TS% of .626 with with usage at 28.9%. He’s shooting 43% from deep, 6th in the league in OWS (3.7), 6th in FT% (.896), and 10th in Offensive Rating (120.5). He’s definitely NOT overpaid at $10.6 million. What do you guys think it would take to get him? The article says they want a superstar in return, but maybe we can do a three team trade with Denver and Houston with us getting him in the deal?

    http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=26g5owq

    I’m thinking something like this should work. Denver gets everything here plus the draft picks we gave Houston last year (maybe they’ll want Fields…hopefully they don’t get him). Houston’s moves with us are cap clearing moves as they’re getting expiring deals, and they get their “superstar” in Melo. We get a back-up PG in Lowry, a legit 2nd star in Kevin Martin (who at $10-12 million is a better value than Melo at $22 million), plus we get to go over the cap to re-sign Chandler and Gallo, and still use our MLE for say Mehmet Okur in the off-season (assuming the next CBA allows for it). A starting 5 of Felton/Martin/Gallo/Stat/Okur with Lowry, Douglas, Fields, Chandler, and Turiaf as reserves would be deadly with our coach.

  3. Frank O.

    I like these segments, Mike.
    @Frank: Agreed on Gallo. It would be one way to force his intensity and involvement in the game.

    I think tonight Howard picks up two quick fouls defending Amare, who will be too quick for him, forcing him to sit most of the second quarter. Then the Knicks will build a double digit lead. Amare also will force Howard to defend further from the hoop. Howard will have to respect Amare’s midrange.
    The Knicks will then control the flow of the game and from that point Orlando will struggle because 1) they are unfamiliar with each other and 2) the Knicks defense will begin to affect Orlando’s shooters.
    The teams play a mirror-like image game, but the Knicks team is more cohesive at this point.
    Amare is more of a scorer than Howard, and Howard will struggle to contain him.
    I think the Knicks will use Turiaf and maybe even Mosgov a bit on Howard.
    I think Felton also will have a bounce back game after struggling v. the Heat.

    It’s a guess, probably tainted by wishful thinking, but I think the overall team rebounding of the Knicks will somewhat offset Howard’s impact on the boards.

  4. ess-dog

    Re: Gallo’s playmaking, Felton is a pretty ball-dominant guard and he plays roughly 38 minutes a game, so that would explain why we don’t see the point-forward at work very much. Also, that was against Al “buckets” Harrington. I can’t imagine that play working so well against Lebron. I’m glad Gallo has that ability and he should continue to work on it (even feature it when Douglas is the pg) but I’m not sure it will be a big part of his game the way it is with Turkoglu or Lebron.
    The ability to post up his defender in a real and consistent way would probably be more helpful. When we get stuck in the halfcourt and Amare is double teamed on one block, it would be nice if Gallo could back down a usually smaller forward in the post. It might just be a case of him needing to get stronger, but I think he could get there eventually. Probably not this year.

  5. ess-dog

    And as for the Martin trade, Houston is going to give up it’s three best players for Melo? And Denver doesn’t want AR, they want a pick. I doubt they’d essentially settle for Scola and a pick for Melo and I don’t think Melo wants to be banished to Houston especially without any good teammates. He won’t sign off on that. And will Denver really send Melo to their conference rivals?
    Plus, Martin is a sieve on defense. I do like his 3 point shooting though.

  6. Frank O.

    @4
    Yeah, I think that would be a good summer project for Gallo. It would be exceptionally useful for him to have a low post game. Honestly, he’s already bulked up a bit this year.
    Although everytime my wife sees him she says he looks like a baby.:)

  7. Frank

    My issue with Gallo is that he rarely forces anything — that leads to good things like his microscopic turnover rate, but also leads to him deferring way to much. Putting him as the point forward in a PnR would also have the decided advantage of making the opposing SF guard the play instead of a PG who presumably has lots more practice guarding it. And – like Frank O noted above, it would make him get involved in the offense.

    One thing I’d love him to work on in the offseason is a pull-up jumper or a jumper off 1 or 2 dribbles. He seems to have slow feet, and so needs so much time to get his feet and balance set — there must be drills out there that can improve that even by a few hundred milliseconds.

  8. Frank O.

    Frank: My issue with Gallo is that he rarely forces anything — that leads to good things like his microscopic turnover rate, but also leads to him deferring way to much. Putting him as the point forward in a PnR would also have the decided advantage of making the opposing SF guard the play instead of a PG who presumably has lots more practice guarding it. And – like Frank O noted above, it would make him get involved in the offense. One thing I’d love him to work on in the offseason is a pull-up jumper or a jumper off 1 or 2 dribbles. He seems to have slow feet, and so needs so much time to get his feet and balance set — there must be drills out there that can improve that even by a few hundred milliseconds.  (Quote)

    You know, some of the awkwardness I think comes from the fact that he’s done an enormous amount of growing in a short period and he’s only 22. I think the more he plays and the older he gets the better command he’ll have of his body.
    But that’s pure speculation…afterall, he’s starting in a league filled with some of the most athletically freakish people on the Earth.

    I’m hoping he takes tonight as a personal challenge to play better than Orlando’s 3pt gunners.

  9. Frank O.

    Gallo has shown a significant dip since his terrible game against Cleveland, where he shot 21% from the field.
    His attempts were down. He’s also not getting to the line as much as I think he can.
    Also, he simply needs to get more than 3 or 4 rebounds per game. That’s not acceptable for a 6’10 small forward.

  10. ess-dog

    One thing I’d love him to work on in the offseason is a pull-upjumper or a jumper off 1 or 2 dribbles. He seems to have slow feet, and so needs so much time to get his feet and balance set — there must be drills out there that can improve that even by a few hundred milliseconds.  

    This is true. He has very little midrange game. It’s either threes or dunks/scoop shots/weird flails at the basket. He does show a turn-around J sometimes, but it rarely looks good. This is something that is entirely coachable and he should get better at taking balanced midrange jumpers and turn-around jumpers.

  11. Garson

    He seems to be tall enough that he can shoot it and know hes not getting blocked. He should be sleeping, eating and shitting to video of Dirks game and try to mirror it as much as possible.

    Dirk knows he can get his shot off any time without it being altered and has perfected the mid range shot in the post.

    Also, When stat is out of the game, I would love to see the offense run through gallo at the top of the key alla David Lee last year. Thats all for today.

  12. ess-dog

    Ha ha!

    From Real GM:

    “In the long-standing saga surrounding Carmelo Anthony, the Nuggets may have “overplayed their hand” in negotiations with the Nets, according to one executive, and New Jersey’s front office is now in the process of “substantively” re-evaluating its pursuit of Anthony.

    The Nets have been chasing Anthony for months but according to sources, New Jersey has grown “sick of the whole charade” and have “backed away.””

    Read more: http://realgm.com/src_wiretap_archives/70853/20101230/nets_grow_weary_of_carmelo_pursuit/#ixzz19cP0U0hL

  13. Nick C.

    Neat stuff Mike. Pretty funny that Harrignton starts out laying off Stat to keep him from getting inside and then as a result of his being just nowhere Stat slips behind him and dunks. So glad that those types of players and defensive plays are few and far between in the Isiah’s heyday he went out of his way to get such dreck and gloated about it.

  14. Z-man

    I really hope we don’t give up on Gallo, I think he will ultimately be the best of our young guys, and possibly a superstar go-to guy. He is already very solid, if inconsistent, at age 22, and he will always be a long 6’10”, yet he has so many areas where he can still improve with some hard work and experience. One thing I noticed about Gallo is that he has a very slow release when he makes 1 on 1 moves, but a much quicker release on his 3-pointers. He also fades too violently on his fade-away shots, often causing him to come up short. and he has a low release point on those shots (as opposed to, say, Bill Cartwright or KG). The slower the release and the lower the release point, the further you have to fade away to avoid the block.

    Anyway, I think he is working hard to develop his identity, and probably forcing things a bit or deferring too much at times, but I strongly feel that he is doing it in pursuit of becoming a better player. In 3 years, he will be bigger, stronger, smarter, tougher, more polished, etc.

  15. ess-dog

    Well, Amare came in 3rd amongst the East forwards, but if KG is injured, he might get to start! When was the last time we had an all-star starter?

  16. Frank O.

    Z-man: I really hope we don’t give up on Gallo, I think he will ultimately be the best of our young guys, and possibly a superstar go-to guy. .  (Quote)

    I think expectations have been too high, too soon for him, and that has stunted his development.
    He’s also have a bit of an off year in some ways, particulary his eFG%, which is way, way off, which makes sense since his 3 pt shooting has been off significantly. His rebounds also are off, although his per 36 scoring is about at his career level.

    Overall, he hasn’t moved decisively forward as many of us hoped he would this year. Perhaps some of that comes from adjusting to having a bonafide star on the roster, as well as the emergence of a very efficient WC as the Knicks second scoring option.

    My hope is he starts to find his place and becomes a star. I think it will happen. The tools are all there.

  17. jaylamerique

    Frank O.:
    I think expectations have been too high, too soon for him, and that has stunted his development.
    He’s also have a bit of an off year in some ways, particulary his eFG%, which is way, way off, which makes sense since his 3 pt shooting has been off significantly. His rebounds also are off, although his per 36 scoring is about at his career level.Overall, he hasn’t moved decisively forward as many of us hoped he would this year. Perhaps some of that comes from adjusting to having a bonafide star on the roster, as well as the emergence of a very efficient WC as the Knicks second scoring option.My hope is he starts to find his place and becomes a star. I think it will happen. The tools are all there.  

    I think its time we acknowledge that WC is our best young player and the better of the two. Gallo’s reputation is clouding our judgment of him.

  18. Caleb

    @16-17 I’ve been impressed with Gallo’s improvement this year. He’s dramatically increased his drives to the basket, and FT rate. If he gets back to hitting 3-pointers and other jumpers at the rate he’s done the past two years, his scoring will look great.

    Up to this year, his game reminded me of Tim Thomas. A better version, but still.

    Now, out of all NBA forwards he’s 8th in made FTs – more than Chris Bosh or Pau Gasol. Partly it’s because he shoots a great percentage, but he’s 11th in total attempts. He’s been to the line more than Paul Pierce, and more than twice as much as the admittedly more athletic Wilson Chandler.

    I’d like to see him rebound more, but improving so much in one area is pretty good for a single offseason. Sadly, I don’t expect much more in the rebound department. Those #s almost always peak early in a player’s career and stay steady or go down. In Gallo’s case the numbers would probably look a little better if he wasn’t stationed on the perimeter so much.

    @18 I think you are getting ahead of yourself! But Chandler has been terrific and looks to be a worthy rival. (Still not sure I wouldn’t bet on our non-playing prospect to be the best of them all in 2 years).

  19. Brian Cronin

    Gallo vs. WC should be a compelling debate for the next few years. I just hope it comes as members of the Knicks.

  20. Z-man

    jaylamerique:
    I think its time we acknowledge that WC is our best young player and the better of the two. Gallo’s reputation is clouding our judgment of him.  

    I disagree. WC is older, and has played a lot more overall games and minutes than Gallo, and has just started playing excellent basketball this year. Gallo will be better than WC in due time, and probably much better.

  21. Frank

    I think that when Gallo is aggressive, he plays great. When he plays passively, he is a below-average player that is a passable but not great defender and a poor rebounder. his offensive rating is >120 which is amazing in terms of points/possession — we just need more VOLUME of possessions out of him. Scoring 16 points on 10 shots is great, but he’d be more valuable to us scoring 22 point on 15 shots even if he’s slightly less efficient in doing so. At the end of the day, it’s total points that matter, not points/possession. If he shot more, he’d probably be taking shots away from Douglas, Felton, and Chandler (Amare will still get his) — and I think that would be a good thing. Gallo does most of his scoring from the outside, which presumably will open things up on the inside for Amare more than scoring from the other guys would.

  22. Caleb

    I would only add – Gallo, on the whole, has been pretty aggressive this year. Re @19, that’s a huge number of FT attempts for a guy who seems to take as few shots as he does. This is for someone else with time to do the math – but I’d guess that he is near the top of the league in FT attempts per shot attempt.

    Maybe it’s just defining “aggressive” – Gallo should shoot more, or Felt-toni should find a way to get him more shots.

  23. Caleb

    Frank:At the end of the day, it’s total points that matter, not points/possession.  

    If you’re looking at the big picture – a team’s success — it’s exactly points/possession that matters, not total points. A team that plays fast can rack up points without having a good offense, and a slow-paced team can have a great offense and still score in the 80s.

    If you’re looking at an individual, I guess there is still room for debate..

  24. citizen

    Long-time lurker making first post here, but…

    @24:

    If you’re looking at the big picture, it’s points per possession for the entire team that matters. If you’re Gallo and are a highly efficient offensively, then you’re doing the team a net benefit by taking more shots at the expense of someone less efficient than you, provided that you maintain your efficiency. That is we want Gallo to increase his volume.
    (So Frank & Caleb are both right in their own way…)

  25. jaylamerique

    Caleb: I would only add – Gallo, on the whole, has been pretty aggressive this year. Re @19, that’s a huge number of FT attempts for a guy who seems to take as few shots as he does. This is for someone else with time to do the math – but I’d guess that he is near the top of the league in FT attempts per shot attempt.
    Maybe it’s just defining “aggressive” – Gallo should shoot more, or Felt-toni should find a way to get him more shots.  

    i think its clear an aggression issue. He floats in and out of games a lot and he has plays run for him. realistically he should be taken shots away from felton. Gallo should be the third option behind WC and Stat

  26. Frank O.

    citizen: Long-time lurker making first post here, but…@24:If you’re looking at the big picture, it’s points per possession for the entire team that matters.If you’re Gallo and are a highly efficient offensively, then you’re doing the team a net benefit by taking more shots at the expense of someone less efficient than you, provided that you maintain your efficiency.That is we want Gallo to increase his volume.
    (So Frank & Caleb are both right in their own way…)  

    Nice first post. Welcome!

  27. Frank O.

    @26
    Couldn’t disagree more.
    I actually think Gallo’s shots should come from TDDWTDD.
    TD is taking 13.4 FGA per 36 and only hitting 39% overall.
    That’s not good.
    Ray has a TS% of .565 and eFG% of .517.
    TD has a TS% of .517 and an eFG% of .482.
    Gallo’s TS% is .595 and his eFG% is .505.
    If anyone should shoot more, it’s Gallo, no doubt.
    I’d rather see TD increase is assists from 3 to maybe 6 per 36 and take half as many shots.
    I think Ray’s output is right where we like it, and better than his career average, probably due to D’Antoni.

    IMHO, Gallo’s increased shots should come from TD.

  28. Frank O.

    Also @26

    WC is the second option mostly because he has made himself that. He’s been more aggressive than Gallo, but it’s not like the Knicks run a lot of plays for him, generally. D’Antoni doesn’t run a lot of plays typically.
    If Gallo wants more shots, he needs to put himself in a position to take them, and then take them.
    The problem is he waits too long for the game to find him. One way he might get better in the flow and perhaps more close in looks is if he goes to the boards from time to time. He’s 6’10 and often is guarded by someone sometimes up to 5 inches shorter. Imagine the put backs and fouls he might draw playing that way.

  29. daJudge

    Isn’t it true that with increased shot attempts, efficiency will usually drop because the player is perhaps forcing more shots? Maybe Gallo would take more comfortable type shots if he was able to post a bit or take some mid-range type attempts. Those type of opportunities would probably increase his shot attempts while maintaining efficiency. You do not see much of those shots from Gallo. Agree that TDDWTDD too much.

  30. Frank O.

    Indeed, WC’s efficiency has increased with his usage, which I thought was only unusual because of @31.

  31. Frank O.

    Frank O.: @26
    Couldn’t disagree more.
    I actually think Gallo’s shots should come from TDDWTDD.
    TD is taking 13.4 FGA per 36 and only hitting 39% overall.
    That’s not good.
    Ray has a TS% of .565 and eFG% of .517.
    TD has a TS% of .517 and an eFG% of .482.
    Gallo’s TS% is .595 and his eFG% is .505.
    If anyone should shoot more, it’s Gallo, no doubt.
    I’d rather see TD increase is assists from 3 to maybe 6 per 36 and take half as many shots.
    I think Ray’s output is right where we like it, and better than his career average, probably due to D’Antoni.IMHO, Gallo’s increased shots should come from TD.  

    And by increasing TD’s assists, we have a viable answer to our backup PG problem. :)
    That’s so simple, it couldn’t possibly work. :)

  32. daJudge

    Frank O at #31—I guess what I’m saying is that if a player is being conservative and taking only the comfort zone shots I would imagine his efficiency would be higher than the player who is less conservative and takes more shots, albeit riskier ones. Maybe Landry is an example of this and maybe Gallo too. Does this make any sense?

Comments are closed.