Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Sunday, October 26, 2014

Raptors 107, Knicks 88

Some technical difficulties last night so apologies for the delay to this morning and the non-fancily-formatted nature of the below post. Max Fisher-Cohen and I split the duties tonight; initials indicate who wrote what:

STARTERS

Amar’e Stoudemire (B-): Pretty shooting and scoring numbers for Amar’e in his first preseason game. When in the 4th quarter Stoudemire finally got some opportunities as the roll man, he and Prigioni showed some good chemistry, as Prigioni assisted on three straight paint scores by STAT. More exciting, Stoudemire was 3-3 outside the paint! When’s the last time he pulled off a stunt like that? However, the post-game that was supposed to somehow make Stoudemire matter in the new Knicks offense did not work out so well. He was blocked in two of his post attempts and called for a charge in another. The only time I remember him scoring out of the post was off short flip shot, on which he could have easily been called for another charge. Stoudemire’s defense and glasswork was also suspect. He was beaten on to an offensive board numerous times by the trio of Amir Johnson, Andrea Bargnani and Jonas Valanciunas, and beyond one nice recovery on a Derozen drive, didn’t seem too interested in defensive rotations. But hey…last season it was a rare day that there was anything good to write about STAT in one of these recaps, so baby steps…baby steps, Amar’e. (MFC)

Raymond Felton (D): Raymond Felton does look pretty skinny, but his performance tonight suggested that the lost fat may still be affecting his brain. His Lin-esque six turnovers (with only four assists) along with some terrible shooting especially from the perimeter (two airballed threes I believe) are not things you want to see from your starting point guard, especially on a team with so little perimeter shooting depth. I will say though that Felton looked aggressive. Five of his eleven shots came at the rim. For now, the relative skinniness and aggression were enough to raise my (admittedly low) expectations a bit for Felton this season. (MFC)

Carmelo Anthony (B): Watching Melo go 0 for 7 from deep just made me angry at myself for watching the Olympics.  Playing in an offense where your looks come out of the iso or off of desperation passes beneath a dying shot clock is a far cry from sitting in the corner and draining clean looks after your man helps onto LeBron or CP3.  When he was inside the arc, Melo’s offense was sensational; he benefitted from a handful of strong dives to the cup, needing only 13 FGA’s and 11 FTA’s to generate his 24 points (69% True Shooting if you don’t count the three point tries) while dishing out 3 assists and turning the ball over only twice.  Defensively — not bad (Note: See Item #2 below for the chief exception).  Melo’s hands were active, he pressured in-bounders — Toronto’s wings are by no means the stiffest test he’ll face this year but I was generally impressed by the effort and to a reasonable extent he had the results to match. (KM)

Tyson Chandler (B+): There is a poetry to watching Chandler match up with Andrea Bargnani, a counterpart who so perfectly highlights the flawed brilliance of Tyson as an NBA center.  I have made the argument in the past that, while Dwight Howard is the league’s premier defensive center, Tyson Chandler is a better defensive fit than even Howard for a team whose perimeter defenders are in some way lacking.  Chandler’s intelligence, surprising quickness, and insane ability to seemingly occupy the entire area inside the three point arc covers for teammates who get beaten and allows those same teammates to take more chances, jump more passing lanes, force more turnovers that limit opponents’ shot attempts and create transition opportunities.

Few bigs in the NBA have a skill set and playing style that forces Chandler to use this latter ability with the frequency of Bargnani and, as you would expect, Tyson was equal to the challenge.  Chandler contested long jumpers and stayed in front of Bargnani’s drives without abandoning his duties as the Knicks lone rim-protecting and help defender (embodied in his sole block, an especially an absolutely hateful swat of a Jonas Valuncianas fadeaway midway through the third).  So that’s all great.  But Bargnani is a bad defensive player — very bad — and it is ironic that this very limitation serves to bring out the worst element of Chandler’s game.  Bargnani is not nearly strong or savvy enough to keep a physical specimen like Tyson Chandler from impacting the game on the offensive end if said specimen is determined to have said impact.  But that just ain’t Tyson — his insane offensive efficiency is built on taking what the defense gives him instead of forcing the issue.  And so teams can hide defensively-inept bigs on him, knowing that as long as they don’t help off of him they will probably be able to play him to a draw.  And so it was that Chandler scored 6 points on just 3 field goal attempts.
If Tyson Chandler has made an art form of omnipresent defense and passive but efficient offense, then Andrea Bargnani must be his muse. (KM)
 
James White (C+): Largely invisible though I will admit that all records of the games first 16 minutes were inaccessible to me as the result of a temporary League Pass outage.  Apologies to James if he had any vicious dunks, delivered any babies at midcourt, or achieved cold fusion at the scorer’s table during that time.  In which case I would admit to a pretty significant instance of journalistic ball-dropping. (KM)
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SUBSTITUTES
Steve Novak (C): Novak started out nicely, making two of his first three threes, but then it seems Toronto realized you don’t leave Steve, and Novak only managed to get off three more attempts in the final 23 minutes he was on the floor. The Knicks were so desperate to space the floor with JR Smith out that Novak got a couple minutes at the two guard. It didn’t have much of an effect, but it was nice to see Woodson diagnosed the problem and came up with an outside the box solution, even if it was just in a preseason game. (MFC)
Chris Copeland (C): Copeland reminds me of ex-Knick John Wallace. He’s not really athletic and is a tweener at the forward spot, but his offense is refined enough that he can still be a useful filler player. He had a nice recovery block on Alan Anderson (who?) and one crazy fadeaway that should not have gone in, and overall did just enough to protect his frontrunner status as 15th man. (MFC)
Kurt Thomas (B+): KURRRRRRRRRRRRRT.  I’m just so happy he’s back.  5 boards and +8 in 11 minutes is fun too.  Whatever.  It’s Kurt.  I’m all smiles.  This is subject to change if he’s actually logging important minutes this season but….come on.  Kurt!  (KM)
Pablo Prigioni (A): The walking personification of “Old Man Game” which is cool and fun and is sure to resonate wonderfully at times with the not insubstantial portion of the Knicks faithful who are both Italian and Old School.  If there’s a beef it’s that his skill set doesn’t really cover up any weaknesses, but that’s a team construction issue and nothing for which Prigioni can be blamed.  I’ve really enjoyed watching him and, on this night, he may have been the team’s best two-way perimeter player.  Also, on the occasion of his third steal, he was compared to Walt Frazier by no less an authority on the subject than…Walt Frazier!  Once that happens it’s no longer within my jurisdiction to give out anything less than an A. (KM)
Jason Kidd (B): Hands-down, ugliest looking jumper by any Knick since I used to shoot hoops in the dead end out back and pretend that I was a Knick.  Ugly is fine when effective and there will be plenty of nights this season when they’re falling and none of us will care what it looks like.  They were not, however, falling tonight.  He looked spry running the offense, however, dishing out 4 assists against 1 turnover and putting up a positive +/-, something none of the other Knicks who played at least 15 minutes were able to accomplish. (KM)
John Shurna (A+++): John Shurna had arguably the greatest single-game performance in NBA history tonight.  Montreal, Quebec is the new Hershey, PA.  We are all witnesses. (KM)
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DNP’s OF NOTE
JR Smith: Smith’s importance to the Knicks cannot be overstated. He is the only backcourt player with the ability to make a three when he’s not wide open. Prigioni seems and Kidd is capable of making the NBA three, but both shoot a quirky set shot (ala Landry Fields circa 2010/11) that they can only get off if they have a lot of space. My take on why the Knicks struggled tonight, beyond the terrible rebounding, is that they couldn’t space the floor. 5-27 from distance is not going to lead to many wins. Earl, even when he’s off, demands a level of defensive attention that’s Kidd, Prigioni and even Felton cannot come close to providing. (MFC)
Marcus Camby: Marcus travelled with team. We saw him smile on the bench every now and then. One thing I learned from seeing him tonight is that I miss his little Bob Dylan rat pencil mustache(MFC)
Henry Sims: Given the amount of turnover on the Knicks roster in the past few years, I’ve actually been rooting for Henry Sims longer than anybody else on this team (unless you grandfather in Camby and Kurt’s previous Knicks stints).  A number of elements of Sims’ game impressed me in the four years that he played for my alma mater and, in the end, he was able to develop into an effective college player.  I do not think his game is going to translate to this level — for all the talk of his point forward role in the Hoyas’ modified Princeton, he’s not an especially gifted passer and his shooting numbers last year were quite poor for a senior big.  At the other end, he’s a tweener who will have trouble guarding nearly any offensively-adept frontcourt player.  He’s a smart guy, he works hard, and I’m rooting for him, but I’m not holding my breath.  Anyway, he didn’t play tonight. (KM) 
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THINGS WE SAW
#1: Stoudemire, Chandler and Anthony played a little under 19 minutes together. In those minutes, the Knicks were -17, which works out to -43.22 points per 48 minutes. :-( (MFC)

#2: Prediction: The Knicks are going to miss Jared Jeffries a lot. Our three new bigs — Thomas, Camby and Wallace — are all excellent post defenders and/or paint protectors, but they are not too nimble. Against a slow paced, isolation offense, being big is more important than being quick as the game becomes more about positioning. However, against an uptempo team, unless your big man is the type of low post threat who can force opponents to play bigger, slower guys, mobility is far more important. Not only was getting back on defense an issue for New York’s lumbering bigs tonight, but they struggled to trap the pick and roll, resulting in lots of paint shots and the bevy of top-of-the-key threes Toronto made to ice the game. It also led to a huge offensive rebounding advantage for Toronto as New York’s bigs were unable to get back in rebounding position after chasing around Toronto’s pesky little guards. (MFC)

#3: If there are cynics out there seeking a singular passage of play to represent their greatest fears about the 2012-13 season and beyond, the leader in the clubhouse is now a sequence that occurred at exactly the ten minute mark of the third quarter.  Kyle Lowry brings the ball across halfcourt and is met by Raymond Felton about 5 feet beyond the arc.  Andrea Bargnani (guarded by Tyson Chandler) steps out to the left wing and beckons for Lowry to go sideline as the rest of the team clears out.  Lowry dribbles left, running Felton into a fairly half-hearted Bargnani screen.  Seeing both 1) the softness of the screen and 2) Toronto’s intent to create a Bargnani/Felton mismatch, Chandler elects not to bite and stays with Bargnani, trusting Felton to come under the screen quickly enough to deny Lowry a path to the rim.  And then:

1) Felton comes under the screen sluggishly, leaving literally zero blue shirts occupying the 23 feet between Lowry and the basket.
2) Chandler, immediately recognizing that Felton has been beaten but still unwilling to concede the open Bargnani look that was likely Option A, points to the open space, knowing that three of his teammates (Anthony, Stoudemire, White) surround the key.
3) Lowry actually slips and nearly falls, seemingly squandering his opportunity for an uncontested layup…seemingly.
4) Melo and Amare converge on the rim as Lowry recovers from his slip and drives.
5) All three players arrive at the same moment with Felton frantically chasing Lowry from behind.  Lowry rises.  And none…NONE…of the three Knicks at the rim jump, raise their arms, or make any other recognizable attempt to contest Lowry’s layup.  Amare bumps him waist on waist, Melo goes with a two handed swipe at his abdomen, and Felton pulls up before making contact and looks the laziest of the three but, hey, at least his chosen tactic wasn’t a guaranteed foul.  Lowry finishes easily, the obvious foul is called on Stoudemire (it looked like Anthony probably could have also been whistled, though it was pretty soft contact), and Chandler and Woodson (and if you watch the video please look closely for this because it comes and goes quickly) simultaneously toss their palms out as if in frustrated disbelief before the former affects an akimboed daze and the latter calls timeout.
There, in just ten seconds, is the image of our collective worst-case scenario: the two superstars and the much-maligned point guard being beaten by a combination of poor positioning, limited defensive skill, and general detachment while the team’s two defensive authoritities look on in horror, unable to save them from themselves. (KM)
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55 comments on “Raptors 107, Knicks 88

  1. knicknyk

    Bull dog defense has yet to be seen at all this pre-season. Still waiting on those synergy defensive numbers. I am actually just curious to be honest.

  2. njasdjdh

    “Lin held opponents to fewer points per play and a lower field goal percentage (37.8) last season than Felton (41.6). Of the 235 players to defend at least 300 plays, Lin ranked 78th in fewest points per play, while Felton ranked 133rd.”

    -http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/47791/felton-over-lin-are-the-knicks-lin-sane

  3. StatsTeacher

    Great stuff. Prigioni was the best pg for the Knicks last night.

    Decided to check if the Houston blogs were right — sure enough Lin is leading in steals. NBA.com has it by steals per 48, and Lin is stealing at a 4.86/48 rte (an amazing #) just ahead of —— LeBron. Jae Crowder (total stud) is stealing the ball at a crazy rate. Preseason, small samples yada yada yada.

    Lin’s defense sucks, yep. Now his jumper — at least for now, does suck.

    http://www.nba.com/statistics/player/Steals.jsp?league=00&conf=OVERALL&qualified=Y&position=0&splitType=9&yearsExp=-1&splitDD=&pager.offset=0

  4. knicknyk

    njasdjdh:
    “Lin held opponents to fewer points per play and a lower field goal percentage (37.8) last season than Felton (41.6). Of the 235 players to defend at least 300 plays, Lin ranked 78th in fewest points per play, while Felton ranked 133rd.”

    -http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/47791/felton-over-lin-are-the-knicks-lin-sane

    I wanted to compare Felton in NY to Lin in NY from a defensive standpoint. That is where the whole Felton is a bull dog on defense nonsense started from.

  5. ruruland

    There aren’t many bigs that will force Chandler to keep from hedging, Andrea is one (though he’s apparently the worst played in NBA history according to Berri acelyotes).

    In that situation, the weakside rotation from Melo has to be about two feet further out.

    It’s not a situation the Knicks will fend themselves in a lot with Chandler and Felton playing the PnR, and it takes some time to rebuild a great, on a string defense.

    We saw, however, that both Melo and Amare are capable of playing within such a defense. You better believe Brewer makes a difference, too.

    Secondly, Chandler always seems to get a pass. I missed some of the second half, but his defense, rebounding were poor and he dropped a coupe balls down low and missed a ton of free throws.
    He’s not going to play like that much, but he deserves criticism and I think we’re ignoring the situations he was beat by Barganani, slow to help and getting beat on boards.

  6. Kevin McElroy Post author

    ruru,

    Thanks for sharing your thoughts. I thought Chandler’s defense was superb tonight — Bargnani was 8 for 21 and only took two free throw attempts and given Chandler’s help defense responsibilities and the inability of any other Knicks bigs to check Bargs for an extended period of time, I think the proof of Tyson’s effectiveness is in the pudding.

    As for his offense, I think I did a fairly decent job highlighting his frustrating unwillingness to be the aggressor with an inferior defender checking him. I didn’t mention the missed free throws (2/8) simply because it’s a preseason game and that’s a high variance stat but you’re obviously right that it would have been a problem in a real game. I think a B probably would have also been fair but a B- would have severely undervalued his defense; I’m happy sticking with the B+ but I can appreciate some dissent on that point.

  7. Z-man

    njasdjdh: “Lin held opponents to fewer points per play and a lower field goal percentage (37.8) last season than Felton (41.6). Of the 235 players to defend at least 300 plays, Lin ranked 78th in fewest points per play, while Felton ranked 133rd.”-http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/47791/felton-over-lin-are-the-knicks-lin-sane

    Felton was admittedly our of shape and our of sorts for much of last season. If you want to use those numbers to define him, and Lin’s 26 starts to define him, you’re going to win that argument. There are other ways to look at it. Is Lin who he was for the first 13 games or the last 13 games? Is Felton who he was the last year in Charlotte+his time as a Knick+ his time in Denver, or is he who he was last year and the years before 2009-10? So far, the preseason results are not conclusive either way. Lin is coming off a swollen knee, Felton is coming off a swollen abdomen. The rest of preseason will feature lots of scrub minutes, so won’t be very telling. Let’s check in around Thanksgiving, we should have a much better idea by then.

  8. ruruland

    Z-man: Felton was admittedly our of shape and our of sorts for much of last season. If you want to use those numbers to define him, and Lin’s 26 starts to define him, you’re going to win that argument.There are other ways to look at it. Is Lin who he was for the first 13 games or the last 13 games? Is Felton who he was the last year in Charlotte+his time as a Knick+ his time in Denver, or is he who he was last year and the years before 2009-10? So far, the preseason results are not conclusive either way. Lin is coming off a swollen knee, Felton is coming off a swollen abdomen. The rest of preseason will feature lots of scrub minutes, so won’t be very telling. Let’s check in around Thanksgiving, we should have a much better idea by then.

    Nice

  9. njasdjdh

    Z-man: Felton was admittedly our of shape and our of sorts for much of last season. If you want to use those numbers to define him, and Lin’s 26 starts to define him, you’re going to win that argument.There are other ways to look at it. Is Lin who he was for the first 13 games or the last 13 games? Is Felton who he was the last year in Charlotte+his time as a Knick+ his time in Denver, or is he who he was last year and the years before 2009-10? So far, the preseason results are not conclusive either way. Lin is coming off a swollen knee, Felton is coming off a swollen abdomen. The rest of preseason will feature lots of scrub minutes, so won’t be very telling. Let’s check in around Thanksgiving, we should have a much better idea by then.

    Chill out. I don’t have a Synergy account and the poster was asking for Synergy numbers so I posted what I could find. Didn’t mean to indicate that was the be all end all.

  10. njasdjdh

    Hollinger on Lin defense:

    “Defensively, the activity theme continued. Lin drew mixed reviews for his work, with high rates of steals (seventh among point guards) and blocks (15th) and a strong rebound rate, but a vulnerability to speedy guards and a tendency to gamble. The Knicks defended better with Lin on the court, but the bulk of his minutes came when the Knicks’ worst defenders were injured. Let’s just say the jury’s still out at this end, but he shows promise at becoming an impactful, ball-hawking disruptor.”

    On Felton defense:

    “Defensively, Felton graded out solidly. Portland guarded much better with him on the court, but his other data wasn’t nearly as strong. Subjectively, he wasn’t as effective as he’d been in Charlotte but was still a league-average player at this end. “

  11. njasdjdh

    By the way, I’ve seen/heard evidence lately that the rule changes make it basically impossible to be a good defender as a PG so PG defensive ability is not important.

  12. Z-man

    njasdjdh: Chill out. I don’t have a Synergy account and the poster was asking for Synergy numbers so I posted what I could find. Didn’t mean to indicate that was the be all end all.

    Chill out? Did I sound angry or annoyed? WTF?

  13. knicknyk

    Thanks a lot njasdjdh. I don’t have insider so I never read those blurbs about Felton & Lin. Thanks for posting the information you have much appreciated.

  14. Z-man

    njasdjdh: By the way, I’ve seen/heard evidence lately that the rule changes make it basically impossible to be a good defender as a PG so PG defensive ability is not important.

    Really? Would love to see/hear that “evidence,” can you post it for us?

  15. sidestep

    knicknyk: bull

    Felton gave up .85 ppp on defense, 41.6 FG%, which ranked him #218 in overall defense last year. Lin gave up .81 ppp, 37.8 FG%, which was ranked #128, despite his reputation in NY as a poor defender.
    Felton’s defense on isolation plays was as poor as Lin’s: .92 ppp, ranked #262.
    In defending the PnR ball handler, Felton gave up .79 ppp, 43.8 FG%, ranked #106. Lin gave up .72 ppp, 37.6 FG%, ranked #59.

    Felton’s defense stats don’t really justify the ‘bulldog’ reputation. Speaking of reputation, Lin was actually known as a good defender at GS; it’s amazing how quickly media coverage can change the narrative about a player overnight. The ‘eye test’ is an easy victim of confirmation bias. It’s a new season, and from what I’ve seen in the preseason, Lin’s defense has been very good.

    Synergy stats below. Top table is offense, bottom is defense. For duplicate rows, the top row is Felton, the bottom row is Lin.

    http://img202.imageshack.us/img202/7078/77910620.png

  16. sidestep

    the “bull” quote didn’t show up as intended. I was responding to
    knicknyk’s question: “I wanted to compare Felton in NY to Lin in NY from a defensive standpoint. That is where the whole Felton is a bull dog on defense nonsense started from.”

  17. ruruland

    sidestep: Felton gave up .85 ppp on defense, 41.6 FG%, which ranked him #218 in overall defense last year. Lin gave up .81 ppp, 37.8 FG%, which was ranked #128, despite his reputation in NY as a poor defender.
    Felton’s defense on isolation plays was as poor as Lin’s: .92 ppp, ranked #262.
    In defending the PnR ball handler, Felton gave up .79 ppp, 43.8 FG%, ranked #106. Lin gave up .72 ppp, 37.6 FG%, ranked #59.

    Felton’s defense stats don’t really justify the ‘bulldog’ reputation. Speaking of reputation, Lin was actually known as a good defender at GS; it’s amazing how quickly media coverage can change the narrative about a player overnight. The ‘eye test’ is an easy victim of confirmation bias. It’s a new season, and from what I’ve seen in the preseason, Lin’s defense has been very good.

    Synergy stats below. Top table is offense, bottom is defense. For duplicate rows, the top row is Felton, the bottom row is Lin.

    http://img202.imageshack.us/img202/7078/77910620.png

    post Felton’s 3 year numbers. Post scouting reports from years past.

  18. knicknyk

    Thanks a lot sidestep this information is helpful. Do you have Feltons numbers from when he was in NY though for defense & offense. Like Z-man said Felton was out of shape & out of sorts. Since the vast majority of Knick fans think Felton will return back to the player he was in NY i want to rely on that sample. Once again thanks a lot.

  19. sidestep

    AFAIK, Synergy doesn’t make available stats more than a season old. I’m not cherrypicking; I don’t have those earlier stats and scouting reports. Post em if you have em.

  20. ruruland

    sidestep:
    AFAIK, Synergy doesn’t make available stats more than a season old. I’m not cherrypicking; I don’t have those earlier stats and scouting reports. Post em if you have em.

    what? They must have changed. They used to have numbers from ’09. Felton looked good as I recall I posted his defensive numbers here.

  21. johnno

    Amare was playing in his first preseason game, after missing about a week of practice time, and people are drawing any conclusions at all about him? Seems a bit premature to me to conclude anything other than Amare seems to be in good shape and his knee didn’t seem to be bothering him. I think that maybe we should wait just a wee bit longer to decide how he’ll play this year…

  22. knicknyk

    ruruland: what? They must have changed. They used to have numbers from ’09. Felton looked good as I recall I posted his defensive numbers here.

    Ruru would you be able to find them for me? His numbers from his tenure in NY I have been really curious about this to be honest.

  23. nicos

    knicknyk: I wanted to compare Felton in NYto Lin in NY from a defensive standpoint. That is where the whole Felton is a bull dog on defense nonsense started from.

    A fairer comparison would Lin vs. Felton’s last year in Charlotte when both had Chandler as a help defender. Felton was on an island with only Chandler and Jeffries (who played limited minutes) providing any help during his first run in New York. Lin had the arguably the best (or at least top 3) help big in Chandler, Shumpert often taking the tougher matchups, and Jeffries playing bigger minutes (at least during the initial Linsanity run). In 2009, Felton’s ppp allowed was .84 good for 70th in the league, Lin gave up .81 but ranked 123 (offense was down league-wide). I think Lin’s defense is probably underrated and Felton’s a bit overrated. That said I do think Felton is a pretty good defender, it’ll be interesting to see what the numbers look like this year.

  24. knicknyk

    nicos: A fairer comparison would Lin vs. Felton’s last year in Charlotte when both had Chandler as a help defender.Felton was on an island with only Chandler and Jeffries (who played limited minutes) providing any help during his first run in New York. Lin had the arguably the best (or at least top 3) help big in Chandler, Shumpert often taking the tougher matchups, and Jeffries playing bigger minutes (at least during the initial Linsanity run).In 2009, Felton’s ppp allowed was .84 good for 70th in the league, Lin gave up .81 but ranked 123 (offense was down league-wide).I think Lin’s defense is probably underrated and Felton’s a bit overrated.That said I do think Felton is a pretty good defender, it’ll be interesting to see what the numbers look like this year.

    The thing though is that I have not seen anything from Felton thus far that supports the perception of him as a bull dog defender. It is pre-season so whatever but I have never once thought that he is a pretty good defender at all. I feel like size is often the perception in regards to big body guards like Ray. Because Ray’s weight fluctuates so much there will be decrease in his athletic potential which will markedly decrease the efficacy of his defense. When you’re so prone to getting completely out of shape as Felton is, your athleticism is prone to decline earlier. That’s just how it is. Fitness matters, and at some point, you can’t simply put in a few extra hours at the gym in hopes of returning to athletic glories you frittered away.

  25. sidestep

    If you’re going to point to the DPOY on the team as affecting individual stats in some way, you should also account for the fact that Amare, a defensive disaster, was on the floor too a lot. Let’s not conveniently ignore how often Amare screwed up on help defense, and in handling the PnR. The DPOY doesn’t completely negate the effect of Amare.

  26. daJudge

    sidestep:
    If you’re going to point to the DPOY on the team as affecting individual stats in some way, you should also account for the fact that Amare, a defensive disaster, was on the floor too a lot. Let’s not conveniently ignore how often Amare screwed up on help defense, and in handling the PnR. The DPOY doesn’t completely negate the effect of Amare.

  27. daJudge

    yes.
    sidestep:
    If you’re going to point to the DPOY on the team as affecting individual stats in some way, you should also account for the fact that Amare, a defensive disaster, was on the floor too a lot. Let’s not conveniently ignore how often Amare screwed up on help defense, and in handling the PnR. The DPOY doesn’t completely negate the effect of Amare.

  28. nicos

    I’d say the Amar’e effect is at least somewhat made up for by the fact that Shumpert often took the better guard, leaving Lin with an easier matchup (and Amar’e was out for probably 25% of Lin’s minutes). More importantly, Chandler only played 51 games and just 1163 minutes in 2009. Felton played over 2600 minutes that year so well over half of the time Chandler wasn’t even on the floor with him. Playing with Wallace at his peak probably makes up for a lot of that but I’d still say Felton in 2009 was better than Lin in 2011/12. The question is is he going to be that guy again? Lin is still going to have a great help defender in Asik but a lot of inexperienced wings so it’ll be interesting to see what kind of defensive numbers he puts up.

  29. nicos

    oops, Amar’e only missed 4 out of Lin’s 25 starts. That said, Amar’e’s defense was at least average during Lin’s last 7 starts (Woodsanity) so Amar’e’s crappy defensive impact was still mitigated somewhat.

  30. Bananalyzer

    So watching Amar’e last night confirmed to me that Amar’e is not a championship team starter! There is no team in NBA that could win a championship with Amar’e starting on their lineup. Yes, his offense was pretty good last night, but there was times that he looked like the worst defensive player out of the ten players on the court. In the same way we see Jason Terry, J.R. Smith, Ben Gordon (in his prime), etc… all players known for their instant offense off the bench. That is exactly how Amar’e could ever play on a championship team. He would still be averaging pretty good minutes. But in the Knicks situation, I believe it would work wonderfully! Please let me know about a star player on a championship team that did not play defense? Or at least try on defense. His problem is not that he doesn’t have the ability to play defense. It’s the fact that there is many times where he just doses off watching an opponent player drive the ball on his teammate while his man is cutting to get the assist for an open layup/dunk! We are all waiting for that “WHAT IF” Amar’e actually tries on every possession. To be honest I am losing hope that Amar’e will actually be consistent on the defensive end. When your offensive game is not covering up for your lack of defense, (example: Dirk in Dallas or even Melo, their offense covers for lack of defense sometimes), then that means that you’re doing the team more hurt than help! I think we should give Amar’e and Melo a chance this season to play together in the starting lineup, after having a full training camp. But if the team does not have one of the top three spots in the east, then I believe they should give Amar’e coming off the bench a try. And if that strategy doesn’t work, we all know where Amar’e will not be playing next year. Bananalyze that! lol

  31. ess-dog

    Man, too bad D’Antoni didn’t start last year with Prigioni on board. He’s very savvy with the ball, great at changing speeds.

  32. d-mar

    Well, the Knicks may not win the Atlantic this year, but they’re proving tonight that our scrubs are better than Boston’s scrubs.

    (Do the opposing coaches in these games communicate beforehand and agree not to play starters?)

  33. Bananalyzer

    an·a·lyz·er? ?[an-l-ahy-zer] Show IPA
    noun
    1.
    a person, machine, or device that analyzes.
    2.
    Optics . a polarizing device, often a Nicol prism, that indicates the direction of vibration of light by selecting and transmitting only the component of linearly polarized light in that direction.

  34. ruruland

    d-mar:
    Well, the Knicks may not win the Atlantic this year, but they’re proving tonight that our scrubs are better than Boston’s scrubs.

    (Do the opposing coaches in these games communicate beforehand and agree not to play starters?)

    Copeland and Prigioni are from scrubs.

  35. jon abbey

    back to yesterday, Tyson Chandler evidently said that the FT line was way off on one basket in the Montreal game, one reason he shot so poorly.

  36. ruruland

    Knicknyk, no idea why your (presumably) new subscription doesn’t get you years past.

    Here’s what I found.

    Fun with Synergy: In 2009-10, Felton had the 70th best defensive rating in the NBA.

    Of the 15 best defensive teams in the NBA, only two had a point guard with a higher rating — Jennings and Tony Parker.

    Chris Paul was the 339th best defender in the NBA, and far and away the worst ppp allowed among any of the good-average starting point guards on good-average NBA teams .

    cont….

  37. Z-man

    Seemed to me that the 3-pt line was too close to the key circle…whatever, who cares? They played on a court tonight wit duct tape for lines.

    All we can tell from preseason is the following:
    Melo is in great shape and looks ready to dominate
    Chandler is Chandler
    Amare looks healthy but less explosive than pre-back injury, defensive concerns continue
    White looks like an NBA fringe rotation player
    Felton? Jury is out
    Prigioni is a good backup
    Kidd will be fine
    Kurt has something left
    Copeland is worth keeping
    Novak is Novak
    Insufficient data on JR, Camby, Brewer

    I truly think we won’t know what this team really is until about 15 games into the season. The Celts look very interesting thus far.

    Oh, by the way, the Heat look unbeatable.

  38. ruruland

    For example, in 2009-2010, Felton yielded fewer points per possession than Rondo and Westbrook.

    In 2010-2011, Felton yielded .89 points in Denver (216th), and .91 pp in New York.

    Spot-ups he’s really struggled with compared to other point guards, perhaps because of his lack of length and height.

    But, he’s fared very well in screen action, which is a result of his ball pressure = bulldog.

    Ballpressure guards work best with rim protectors, and Felton’s numbers should be really goo this year.

    Let’s remember something. One of the reason Larry Brown left Charlotte was because Felton signed in New York. That’s from Brown’s mouth. The guy epitomized that low-efficiency, hard-nosed defensive team.

  39. ruruland

    z-man, Amar’e looked plenty explosive in the one game he’s played. Two dunks with defender bodying him. He’s never going to be the freak he was at 23, but there still aren’t but a handfull of players who make the plays Amar’e did last night.

  40. knicknyk

    Ruru can you just give me the raw data please for Feltons tenure in NY kind of like how sidestep did it? That would be much appreciated.

  41. Z-man

    On another note, it is disturbing to me as a purist that the 3-pt shot is so easily made by players at all 5 positions. I wish the NBA would push the line out to 25 feet amd make the court significntly wider. The athleticism of the players has outgrown the dimensions of the court.

    From a different perspective, back in the late-80’s thru early 90’s, the 3-pt shot was mainly reserved for specialists like Dale Ellis, Dell Curry, etc. Now you see everybody at all positions jacking up threes. To me, it has taken the mid-range game out of the picture, when the greats of the game, from Oscar to Bird and Magic, to Jordan, were equally proficient at this part of the game. It bugs me that guys like Battier and Terry are stud offensive players in today’s game when they really shouldn’t be that good by historical standards.

    Let’s get back to the 3-pt shot being a specialty shot or a desperatin shot, rather than a first option shot.

    If you disagree, please watch the great Celtics-Lakers games of the 80’s, where the three was a low percentage shot for all but the great shooters. That was beautiful basketball, where a guy could pull up for an 18 footer without worryng if he was blowing a chance for a 3-pointer.

  42. ruruland

    knicknyk:
    Ruru can you just give me the raw data please for Feltons tenure in NY kind of like how sidestep did it? That would be much appreciated.

    Just in New York?

    .88 against pnr ballhandler (159)
    . 75 vs isolation (84th)
    .77 vs post-ups (56th)
    1.24 vs spot-ups (381)
    .64 vs screen (7th)
    Spot-ups are likely most random of all of these.

  43. Z-man

    ruruland: For example, in 2009-2010, Felton yielded fewer points per possession than Rondo and Westbrook. In 2010-2011, Felton yielded .89 points in Denver (216th), and .91 pp in New York. Spot-ups he’s really struggled with compared to other point guards, perhaps because of his lack of length and height. But, he’s fared very well in screen action, which is a result of his ball pressure = bulldog. Ballpressure guards work best with rim protectors, and Felton’s numbers should be really goo this year. Let’s remember something. One of the reason Larry Brown left Charlotte was because Felton signed in New York. That’s from Brown’s mouth. The guy epitomized that low-efficiency, hard-nosed defensive team.

    I respect you, ruru, but these numbers and conclusions are very suspect. As the Yankees found out, regular seaon numbers don’t mean much, unless you look at numbers v. top teams. How doid Felton fare v. playoff teams or other top PGs compared to other PGs?

  44. knicknyk

    Yup just in NY sidestep already provided his portland numbers. Do you have the FG% as well.
    For example in defending the PNR ball handler Portland Felton gave up .79 ppp, 43.8 FG%, ranked #106. In NY he gave up .88 against pnr ball handler #159. (Missing the FG%) If you have the FG% numbers I would really appreciate it.

  45. ruruland

    Z-man: I respect you, ruru, but these numbers and conclusions are very suspect. As the Yankees found out, regular seaon numbers don’t mean much, unless you look at numbers v. top teams. How doid Felton fare v. playoff teams or other top PGs compared to other PGs?

    I’m not concluding anything other then what my eyes have seen, which is that Felton is a good, not great defender (he lacks the length to be great).

    He’s not a better defender than Rondo or Westbrook (both extremely long), as his numbers from 2009 indicate. Might point is that it would be extremely difficult to play 82 games, have better numbers than Rondo and Westbrook and 90 percent of the point guards on the best defensive teams, and not have the ability to be a very good defensive point guard.

    We cannot form conclusions solely from Synergy or WP48 or WS, whatever.

    Synergy has its own issues to be sure.

    Does this mean that Felton is a good enough defensive point guard on a championship-caliber team? No one knows.

    Will he the best defender against Rondo the Knicks have ad since he left? I have little doubt. And having the ability to throw Shumpert, Brewer, Felton and Kidd, all of whom can match-up very well against certain types of players, is a huge advantage.

  46. jon abbey

    Z-man:

    I truly think we won’t know what this team really is until about 15 games into the season.

    this is true for pretty much any NBA team adding new, big pieces. my rule of thumb used to be half a season/40 games until a new major acquisition was fully assimilated, but I think that’s somehow shrunk in recent years, not sure why.

  47. ruruland

    knicknyk:
    Yup just in NY sidestep already provided his portland numbers. Do you have the FG% as well.For example in defending the PNR ball handler Portland Felton gave up .79 ppp, 43.8 FG%, ranked #106. In NY he gave up .88against pnr ball handler #159. (Missing the FG%)If you have the FG% numbers I would really appreciate it.

    39% isolation
    47% pnrballhandler
    40% post-up
    49.5% spot-up
    27.5% off screen
    45.5% hand-off (ranked 50th)

  48. ruruland

    knicknyk:
    Yup just in NY sidestep already provided his portland numbers. Do you have the FG% as well.For example in defending the PNR ball handler Portland Felton gave up .79 ppp, 43.8 FG%, ranked #106. In NY he gave up .88against pnr ball handler #159. (Missing the FG%)If you have the FG% numbers I would really appreciate it.

    I’m curious as to why you just want New York Numbers, where he was playing with a bad defensive frontcourt and under a coach who didn’t give two fucks about defense.

    Woodson is a Brown disciple, teaches similar kind of defense, and Chandler played there.

    It would seem the Charlotte team would be the best comparison.

  49. ruruland

    Howard Beck takes his talent for granted. If he was only half as good as a reporter as he is writer.

  50. sisterray

    Bananalyzer:
    So watching Amar’e last night confirmed to me that Amar’e is not a championship team starter! There is no team in NBA that could win a championship with Amar’e starting on their lineup. [...] I think we should give Amar’e and Melo a chance this season to play together in the starting lineup, after having a full training camp. But if the team does not have one of the top three spots in the east, then I believe they should give Amar’e coming off the bench a try. And if that strategy doesn’t work, we all know where Amar’e will not be playing next year.Bananalyze that! lol

    Do you think that Miami would be worse off if Amar’e were their starting center? Obviously, they couldn’t afford Amar’e plus everyone else, but I don’t think anyone hoping to win anything (even just home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs) could afford Amar’e at this price when he’s playing so poorly.

    Starting vs. coming off the bench doesn’t matter to me. What matters is lineups. And if Melo and Amar’e cannot develop a 2-man game, then they should not be in a lineup together.

  51. Brian Cronin

    this is true for pretty much any NBA team adding new, big pieces. my rule of thumb used to be half a season/40 games until a new major acquisition was fully assimilated, but I think that’s somehow shrunk in recent years, not sure why.

    I agree that it has shrunk. I have no theories as to why. Anyone else?

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