Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Saturday, November 29, 2014

Ranting Spree

[If you are looking for the John Hollinger interview, it is just below this article or just click here.]

A quick note to Latrell Sprewell: When a championship caliber team that is already paying you twice what you deserve ($14.6M) this year, offers you a 3 year deal at $9M a year that will run until the age of 37, when no one else in the league will pay you anywhere near that much money…TAKE THE MONEY & RUN, instead of complaining about it.

Of course if Latrell wanted to make mega-dough, he should find out what stats Winston & Sagarin are using for their WINVAL ratings, and concentrate on those. That’s what last year’s MVP Hedo Turkoglu did, and it worked for him.

Personally I think Winston & Sagarin aren’t trying to contribute to basketball knowledge as much as they are trying to be the funniest duo of the 21st century (previous winners: 20th century: Laurel & Hardy, 19th: Gilbert & Sullivan).

Winston & Sagarin 2002-2003 WINVAL ratings were:

2002-03
——-
1. Kevin Garnett
2. Tim Duncan
3. Dirk Nowitzki

Not bad, until you get to the next two guys:

4. Scottie Pippen
5. Richard Hamilton

Ugh! The rest of the top 10:

6. Stephon Marbury
7. Kobe Bryant
8. Zydrunas Ilgauskas
9. Jason Terry
10. Jon Barry

Interesting that they thought Marbury is in the top 10. Of course, a year later, they would issue this statement:

“Marbury’s one of the top 10 players on offense,” Winston says. “Everybody thinks this guy is a great player. But when he’s on defense, he gives it all back.”

So one year they say Marbury is a top 10 player, the next year they mock anyone would who make that claim. One year Tim Duncan is the #2 player in the league, the next he’s the third best Spur (behind Turkoglu and Ginobili). No wonder they only claim a 60% success rate for predicting future ability. For $29,999.99 a month less I can predict anything 50% of the time.

Winston & Sagarin are the stat version of Joe Morgan. Just like Joe, they contradict themselves and make ridiculous claims. Everytime they come out with these lists, it’s just more ammunition for stathead-haters to roll their eyes “at guys who’ve never been to a game.” Winston & Sagarin are doing harm to those that do meaningful statistical analysis. Maybe I can convince someone who pays for their information, that it would be in their best interest to not let WINVAL ratings be seen by the public. Or better yet, maybe I can convince them not to pay for such poor advice.

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