Re: Gallo, the more I looked at the stats, the more that I think that Gallo will resemble Rashard Lewis more than anyone else in the league right now. Gallo’s stats last year are pretty similar to Lewis’s in his 21yo year (his 3rd season) although Lewis has the edge. What’s interesting is that in Lewis’s subsequent seasons, his stats actually looked more like Gallo’s than earlier in his career, although it’s hard to say he regressed. Lewis was consistently better at rebounding, which probably accounts for the difference in PER, but less so in his 4th,5th and 6th seasons. So, in judging Gallo’s trade value, it’s probably fair to ask whether Melo is worth Lewis at 22, plus EC’s expiring and a late first rounder.

Re: Randolph, he is harder to gauge, but Mike K’s similarity scores and my own less formal analysis have him turning out something like a cross between Marcus Camby and Lamar Odom (who was widely panned as a young player because of his supposed low basketball IQ.) So, is what you gain from Melo worth losing a 22yo Odom/Camby hybrid (not as good on O as Odom, nor as good on D as Camby, but possibly better at both than either) plus the EC expiring plus the mid-late 1st rounder?

In any case, it is pretty easy for me to see that Melo is not worth both a young Rashard Lewis and a young Camby/Odom hybrid, so under no circumstances would I trade both before getting a good look and deciding that neither is as good as the above scenarios paint them. Even trading one of them on the blind is tricky and could have diminishing returns when the cap implications are factored in. There’s also the outside possibility that both turn out to be even better than the above comparisons. If we sit tight and focus on a stud guard via FA, that might be the way to go unless Melo waits until next summer to come here, which might be best for him anyway if he really wants to win a championship in NY.

It’s also not a huge sample size, but in 09-10 Euroleague he had 10.7 reb/36 (65 in 218 minutes, 4.1 off and 6.6 defensive). 08-09 Eurocup he had 13.2 reb/36 (again very strong offensively in a 207 minute sample). I would guess that’s more indicative of his ability since it’s a larger sample and in a real team atmosphere. I don’t know if it works with Europe or not, but rebounding translates really well from college to the NBA.

http://www.euroleague.net/competition/players/showplayer?pcode=LLK&seasoncode=E2009

Z-man: Also, the Curry era hasn’t officially ended, has it?!  

Funny that he’s gone from 1st to maybe 5th string.

I was just using Jordan as an example, I agree he’s really raw. In the NBA Timo’s not going to get to the basket (or do anything else) as easily as he did against Cote D’Ivoire… that was my only point.

Darko might be a good medium-case. Timo does seem more explosive to me, though. At this point probably rawer too.

But he doesn’t look like a good rebounder at all.

11 rebounds in more than 60 minutes.

That’s like 5.9 per 36

Curry would be proud. Lol

I know, small sample. Don’t shoot me.

Don’t forget it’s Ivory Coast (Jerome Jordan also looked good against mid-majors), but I agree. I think Timo’s absolutely a contender for a rotation spot. You have to expect the mental lapses and fouls, but he’s too big/athletic and good at what he’s good at (dunking, rebounding, pick-and-rolling, being big/athletic…) not to be in play for some minutes. Between he, Turiaf, Amare, and maybe Randolph the Knicks are as set at the 5 as they’ve been at least since the start of the Curry-era (which is saying nothing, but I think they’re solidly set).

It’s an interesting point overall, but I think you’re exaggerating. Bosh is not top 5. Wade is not #2 in terms of production (Dwight Howard, a healthy Chris Paul, possibly Durant this season), only hype. Does seem somewhat unprecedented as a Big 3, at least in the modern era. What are even the competitors? Jordan-Pippen-Rodman wasn’t at all bad, nor KG-Pierce-Allen (older though). Duncan-Manu-Parker and Kobe-Pau-Bynum are probably underrated since both Manu and Bynum seem generally underrated. Of course the big 4 of Marbury-Crawford-Randolph-Curry will probably never be matched…

I still think you’d have to ask the exact same questions about Melo any season. He’s just not a superstar in terms of production. He’s a perennial All-Star, but he’s not in the NBA’s top tier.

Nick C.,

With the Spurs specifically the larger point was that just about every guy in their rotation is as efficient as or more efficient than Melo. Regardless of their role. Either whoever is taking the shots Melo would take is as efficient or more efficient, or the offense just doesn’t take those forced mid-range shots for which he’s famous. Since he doesn’t bring a whole bunch outside his scoring, I question how valuable he’d be to the Spurs.

The only obvious exception to this I can think of would be if one guy takes nothing but long mid-range shots right in front of the 3-pt line, then he’s very unlikely to be efficient (low % without the extra point, not much chance to get fouled). You can’t really argue that this is a valuable role, though, because if the team just replaced that guy with a strong 3-pt shooter they could turn those inefficient mid-range shots into more efficient 3-pt attempts.

Jump shooting does not doom you to poor efficiency. Plenty of other guys play the same position as Melo, take as high a % jump shots (only 63%), and score more efficiently. Melo is just not a very good jump shooter. There are apples to apples comparisons of guys who are more efficient. There are also apples to apples comparisons of guys who are as efficient or less efficient, but bring more value to the court in other ways (playmaking, defense, rebounding…).
One way Melo could increase his efficiency pretty easily is to take less jump shots… take less shots overall and the ones he cuts out as jumpers. As long as he’s been in the league, though, the chances of him changing his stripes aren’t great.

I tend to agree that we should compare apples to apples. Certainly at times a team may have to compare apples to oranges: do they draft/trade-for/sign a PG or C with equal opportunity to acquire either… And fans are naturally going to want to compare apples to oranges as well. I don’t know what the statistical distribution of TS% is for each position, let alone each general role within an offense. At the top of the league, though, there are guys at every position who manage to score a high volume very efficiently. Since in this case we’re talking about Melo being or not being a guy who can lead a team to a championship, those are the apples we’re really comparing him to: LeBron, Dwight Howard, Chris Paul, Durant… MJ, Shaq, Duncan, etc.

I think it’s perfectly acceptable to say “that guy’s efficiency suffers because his role is…” “to shoot outside” or “to bang inside with the big guys” but the unspoken truth there is that those guys are a bad jump shooter and a bad post-up player. They might be the best option available to that team or a guy who helps the team win, but there are better players out there. I’m not arguing Melo is a bad player by any means, I said he may be top 15-20 in the league, but we’re talking about whether he can be a huge cog on an NBA champion. Certainly HE CAN, I’m just saying I don’t think it’s likely (either the hugest cog would have to be enormous LeBron/Howard style good, or there would have to be a lot of big cogs). He’s a valuable player, but there are more valuable guys out there. Under the right circumstances I would like the Knicks to acquire him, I’m just hesitant for them to trade the whole farm for him.

Splitter’s been one of the best players outside the NBA for a few years. I don’t know if he’ll be a star in the NBA, but he is excellent on the pick-and-roll and has a good post-up game. He had no problem scoring on Lamar Odom, who isn’t a bad defensive 4 in the NBA. While Splitter will have a very different role than Carmelo, I’m guessing people will be surprised at how good he is at his role.

http://knickstweets.net/knicks-news/mozgov-highlights-from-todays-russia-vs-ivory-coast-game/

After seeing highlights from these games, I am very optimistic re: Mozgov being able to help this year. He has a great motor, good hands and is a legit shotblocker. great size, too, and doesn’t get pushed around. Bit of a mean streak as well. Seems smart and coachable.

http://www.sbnation.com/2010/8/31/1659774/carmelo-anthony-nuggets-trade-request-demand-nba