Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Sunday, November 23, 2014

Perhaps You’ve Heard of This Chris Paul Fellow?

 

From Hornets.com. The colors will change to blue and orange soon.

16 months and 1 day ago, in the aftermath of The Decision (and in my very first piece for this website), I considered the possibility of the Knicks forming their own Big 3. At that time the Knicks had only signed Mr. Stoudemire. However, then as now there seemed an air of inevitability that Carmelo Anthony and Chris Paul would both decide to come to the Big Apple.

As the 2011-2012 season begins, the Knicks are halfway to that dream. Chris Paul will be the dominant subject of speculation this season, and early reports seem to indicate that experts will remain amusingly divided on the inevitability of his joining the Knicks until the day it occurs. Chris Broussard broke that Paul’s first choice was far-and-away the Knicks. (Hooray!) Then John Hollinger suggested that Paul was unlikely to join the Knicks, due to limited cap space. (Bah!) Then Frank Isola tweeted that Melo had a big grin on his face during a media session with Paul at his charity. And soon I will report that I saw Melo and CP3 playing hopscotch together. You get the picture.

Cutting through the multitude of opinions on the subject, I wonder what could possibly make people doubt that Paul will sign here next year. I have no inside connection to someone in Paul’s camp. I have two rather circumstantial pieces of evidence which make me think Paul will sign: that he’s been BFF with ‘Melo all summer, and that Broussard said he wants to come here. But really, havn’t the past two years proven without a doubt that star players will play where they want to play? The Melo-Bosh-Amar’e-LeBron-Wade-Paul group all wanted to play basketball with their friends in the city of their choosing. Five of the six have made that a reality.

Now, to the extent that Paul might like playing somewhere else (Broussard says he’s open to the Clippers), he might join one of those teams. But the reason will be the same: because he wants to, and not because of relatively minor financial considerations. While Professor Hollinger does some good work demonstrating how the Knicks’ offer will be smaller than a Hornets’ extension, I can’t help but feel that it just doesn’t matter. Jordan Brand guys all know the marketing power that being in this city gives an athlete. Prospective PG’s gotta buy shoes too, and New York is the stage where Paul could increase the value of his brand. It just seems preordained when you throw in the combination of his friendship with Carmelo and the opportunity to run Mike d’Antoni’s offense (or the opportunity to figure out how to make a point guard relevant in the triangle…perhaps you’ve heard of this fellow Phil Jackson? Nevermind.)

Personally, I plan on tuning out most of the chit-chat about Paul, except when it confirms my pre-existing belief that he will sign as a Knick in the summer of 2012. As the season progresses, perhaps it will become time to analyze how Paul will neutralize Melo’s bad shot selection, or wonder about how devastating the CP3/Amar’e pick and roll will be. Some may say that I am reacting as a typical New Yorker, always suspecting that a particular player will want to join my team. To them I reply, how cool is that Knicks #3 jersey going to look? Sun’s gotta rise, Earth’s gotta turn, and Chris Paul will be a Knick. (I hope.)

 

67 comments on “Perhaps You’ve Heard of This Chris Paul Fellow?

  1. twoseam2007

    I’m not sure what the Cap will look like, and i haven’t read hollinger’s column, but let me break it down. Billups contract of 14 mil, Balkman’s inevitable amnesty cut of 1.3 mil, turiaf’s 5 mil, will all come off the books next season. I understand the ramifications of signing him outright versus sign and trade, which allows you to go over the cap (or at least it used to), but i can’t help but think the Knicks will find a way to bring him aboard, unless the clippers swoop in and offer the Hornets a better package than the Knicks (which they can).

  2. BigBlueAL

    I might be the only person here who while Im obviously excited about the possibilities of signing CP3 right now for this current season Im just looking forward to the team we have now and am curious to see if they can grab a 4/5 seed and win a playoff round.

  3. Spree8nyk8

    I’m definitely interested in what the current team can do. It’s just so tough knowing that there is yet another long period where the team will simply not be where it intends to be in the long run. Hopefully we do well enough this year that next year can be the year they truly are considered contenders. Remains to be seen.

  4. Jim Cavan (@JPCavan)

    Hollinger makes the correct mathematical points, but I don’t think nearly enough attention is paid to the uber-lucrative endorsement / promotional / media money made available in places like New York and L.A. Melo alone made $10 million endorsements last year, and that number’s only going to go up. Not to say that would be a deal-breaker, but what little I know of CP3 leads me to believe he’s the kind of guy who would take a haircut on his paycheck for the chance to make it back in spades elsewhere. And if he ends up leading them to a title? Forget about it — his money would be no good here anyway.

  5. twoseam2007

    Brian Cronin (@Brian_Cronin): I’d say that the answer is no to both questions.

    Those are not the type of players the Knicks are looking for. I like jefferson, but there are questions about whether he is a true 5, and millsap, and undersized 4, is definitely not what they are looking for.

    PLUS, they’re saving space for CP3, like it or not.

  6. Z

    Unfortunately, the smartest guy in the room (Caleb) just blasted any hope of Chris Paul coming to New York on the last thread… :(

    But, Caleb aside, I still think John is right and Hollinger is wrong.

    A) If money is the only object, as stated here and elsewhere, the money can be made up off the court.

    B) Money clearly isn’t the ONLY object, as evidenced by LeBron and Bosh. LeBron didn’t only leave a few million on the table going to the Heat, he also left the worlds biggest off-the-court market on the table by not going to NY. (He also left countless millions on the table when he went from being the most marketable to the most reviled sports figure with one decision).

    C) Paul hired Maverick Carter’s LRMR marketing firm to make his brilliant decisions for him, so if taking his talents to 34th Street is the wrong financial decision for Paul to make, his handlers will probably make him end up there.

    D) John Abbey posted a unique idea in the last thread: can’t Paul sign a contract with Amar’e and Carmelo to be their “bowling instructor” for $5 million a year to offset the difference in the “Big Three”‘s salaries?

  7. Brian Cronin (@Brian_Cronin)

    Here’s where Hollinger’s article really fails. And boy, does it fail on this point.

    If Chris Paul signs with another team (even if this other team does a sign and trade with Paul during the season), he can only sign a four-year deal starting at $17 million dollars with 4.5% annual raises.

    So let’s do the math:

    A team that could offer him the MAX
    Year 1 $17,000,000
    Year 2 $17,765,000
    Year 3 $18,564,425
    Year 4 $19,399, 825
    TOTAL: Basically $73,000,000 for 4 years

    The Knicks:

    Year 1 $13,500,000
    Year 2 $14,107,500
    Year 3 $14, 702, 338
    Year 4 $15,365, 743
    TOTAL: Roughly $58,000,000

    Or basically $15 million apart.

    So rather than $40 million, we’re talking $15 million left on the table. That might be $15 million more than Chris Paul is willing to leave on the table, but Hollinger does a disservice by not pointing it out in his article.

  8. John Kenney Post author

    Just read Caleb’s comment in the last thread, and still think the commenters after him got it right: it’s only tens of millions of dollars if he were to stay with the Hornets, which I really just do not think is a possibility at this point. West is leaving NO as well, so why would he stay?? Furthermore, the brand built up by being a successful PG in New York would carry over until after his playing days are done…long term, NY makes the best sense.

  9. twoseam2007

    Doesn’t it seem like Hollinger just likes to be a hater? After, all he was the most adamant writer to not pick Rose for MVP (Which was ridiculous).

  10. flossy

    twoseam2007:
    Doesn’t it seem like Hollinger just likes to be a hater? After, all he was the most adamant writer to not pick Rose for MVP (Which was ridiculous).

    No, Rose for MVP was ridiculous.

  11. Brian Cronin (@Brian_Cronin)

    I don’t think Hollinger is a hater at all. I think the nature of the business, though, leads writers (especially national writers like Hollinger) to make declarative/overly dramatic statements. So rather than a casual “Rose should not be the MVP,” it is something snarky about him obviously not being the MVP.

    So here, the spotlight is “$40 million on the table!” when it really is more like $15 million, and “there’s no way Paul will be a Knick” when it is really just “Paul would have to give up $15 million to be a Knick and I do not think that he will do that.”

  12. d-mar

    In the media world, negativity gets you more attention than being positive. More people will read “Chris Paul never going to NY” than “Chris Paul will definitely end up in NY” It’s the nature of the business.

  13. Brian Cronin (@Brian_Cronin)

    Heck, we’re proving that by talking about Hollinger’s piece and not Broussard’s (they each took one side of the “will Paul be a Knick?” debate). Granted, Broussard was much, much less definitive with his statements, so that could also be why his piece has not gotten as much attention.

  14. Brian Cronin (@Brian_Cronin)

    Ugh, Nene, if you want to leave Denver, go right ahead, but save us the “they disrespected me by not offering me a contract until June” silliness (see this Yahoo! article). I mean, I would understand if they just did not offer him a contract at all. That would definitely be a sign of disrespect, but it not coming quickly enough? For serious? It was obvious that Denver wanted to bring him back. This just sounds like Nene wanting to move on to another team and not wanting to sound like he’s being a “bad” guy.

  15. BigBlueAL

    So how are those Nuggets looking now?? Chandler, JR Smith and KMart all stuck in China until March, Felton was traded to Portland for Andre Miller, and Nene is as good as gone. All they got left is Gallo and Mozgov lol

  16. BigBlueAL

    Also and Ty Lawson my bad, he and Gallo are their best 2 players on the roster right now I assume. But with Miller there cant see Lawson getting real starter minutes at PG.

  17. Brian Cronin (@Brian_Cronin)

    I’d imagine they’ll play Miller and Lawson together in the back court a lot. Just like they did with Lawson and Felton.

    And yeah, if they lose Nene they’ll certainly be in trouble, as he’s right up there as the best player on the team.

  18. Z-man

    I just checked Nene’s stats on B-R and have to say, I was pretty impressed. He’s certainly worth as much as David Lee, IMO, fits a glaring need, and would keep Amare healthier by relieving him of C responsibilities. So, if you take Hollinger’s word for it and assume that the CP3 deal is not gonna happen, would it be worth it to offer a sign-and-trade re: Nene for Billups? A front line of Nene, Amare and Anthony would be pretty impressive. We’d have a big hole at PG, unless Shump is capable there, but at least we’d get to keep him and Fields. I’m not advocating for this, just putting it out there.

  19. art vandelay

    I don’t know if it is fair to strictly compare Broussard’s piece to Hollinger’s. I read them both and, as far as I can tell, Broussard’s is mostly straight up reporting with insider knowledge (supposedly), whereas Hollinger’s is an analysis of the finances that may restrict a cp3-NYK marriage. It didn’t sound as though Hollinger had any insider information whatsoever. Depending on what you think of the veracity and reliability of Broussard’s reporting, I would tend to favor in judging the likelihood of our obtaining Cp3 on a piece based on facts regarding Cp3’s desire, which is what will drive the bus, rather than one man’s feelings about how there will be insurmountable obstacles in the way of said arrangement being consummated. We already saw how the impossibility of a Miami big 3 was debunked, as well as their ability to sign other players after adding on the big 3 (Miller and Haslem)…no one said they could get anyone worth his salt to play with those 3 given the limited finances after signing the dynamic trio, and they did it nevertheless.

  20. BigBlueAL

    Brian Cronin (@Brian_Cronin):
    I’d imagine they’ll play Miller and Lawson together in the back court a lot. Just like they did with Lawson and Felton.

    And yeah, if they lose Nene they’ll certainly be in trouble, as he’s right up there as the best player on the team.

    A defensive backcourt of Miller and Lawson sounds disastrous to me. At least with Felton he could cover opposing SG’s decently, dont think Miller nowadays could cover me let alone opposing NBA SG’s lol

  21. John Kenney Post author

    @Z-Man I’d have to say the over-under on how long it is before the Knicks and the Nuggets have any sort of transaction again is probably around 5 years. And I’d take the over.

  22. d-mar

    @22 Broussard probably gets it right more than any other NBA reporter, he seems to be really connected and breaks stuff before anyone else (which, most importantly, usually turns out to be true) So I’m sure he’s not making up anything regarding CP3.

    @21 I think we’re forgetting that there are 2 top flight PG’s that are FA’s in 2012 – CP3 and D-Will. I know the Nets will do anything to hang onto him, but if they whiff on Howard, there’s no reason to think he wouldn’t come across the river. So my point it is that there is a backup plan of sorts if CP3 goes elsewhere, so I say no new long term deals this year for someone like Nene.

  23. Brian Cronin (@Brian_Cronin)

    I don’t know if it is fair to strictly compare Broussard’s piece to Hollinger’s.

    Well, the comparison is that they were definitely intended to be counterpoints to each other.

    But yes, Broussard’s piece certainly had more investigating to it than Hollinger’s, which was more about explaining the financial situation of it all (well, except for the fact that he left out the part that Paul can only make $15 million than he would on the Knicks if he signed elsewhere).

  24. Brian Cronin (@Brian_Cronin)

    And yeah, I am totally down with the “Wait until 2012″ strategy with the team. Paul and D-Will are just too good to not give yourself a chance to sign them. Howard is better than both of them, but I just don’t see that being a real chance, as Howard has not given any indication that he’d like to play for the Knicks.

  25. twoseam2007

    Z-man:
    I just checked Nene’s stats on B-R and have to say, I was pretty impressed.He’s certainly worth as much as David Lee, IMO, fits a glaring need, and would keep Amare healthier by relieving him of C responsibilities.So, if you take Hollinger’s word for it and assume that the CP3 deal is not gonna happen, would it be worth it to offer a sign-and-trade re: Nene for Billups? A front line of Nene, Amare and Anthony would be pretty impressive.We’d have a big hole at PG, unless Shump is capable there, but at least we’d get to keep him and Fields.I’m not advocating for this, just putting it out there.

    But they don’t have any cap space right now, thus making that impossible. The whole point about not adding anyone this year is because

    A) We have no real cap space
    B) We are saving cap space for next season as nearly 20 million will come off the books as Billups and Turiaf expire, and Balkman gets amnestied
    C) CHRIS PAUL

  26. twoseam2007

    Z-man:
    I just checked Nene’s stats on B-R and have to say, I was pretty impressed.He’s certainly worth as much as David Lee, IMO, fits a glaring need, and would keep Amare healthier by relieving him of C responsibilities.So, if you take Hollinger’s word for it and assume that the CP3 deal is not gonna happen, would it be worth it to offer a sign-and-trade re: Nene for Billups? A front line of Nene, Amare and Anthony would be pretty impressive.We’d have a big hole at PG, unless Shump is capable there, but at least we’d get to keep him and Fields.I’m not advocating for this, just putting it out there.

    Forgot to add, NO WAY then Nuggets would ever do that, considering they just moved Billups to allow Lawson to take over the PG spot. PLUS, there is no way shump would start in that scenario day one. Toney D would surely take that spot.

  27. BigBlueAL

    Apparently Howard Beck will be posting a column later tonight that talks about how the Knicks have no chance at Chris Paul.

    Im telling you, all the national and local writers (except for Hahn) really freaking hate the Knicks and never write ANYTHING positive about them. Ever. lol

  28. Frank

    As Hahn himself tweeted, all these CP3 articles are just easy linkbait. These guys, as much as I love reading them all, are just talking heads. With the exception of maybe one or two, they don’t have any inside info. NO one thought the big three would all end up in Miami. No one knows what will happen now except for CP3, his agent, and his closest friends (one of which I hope is Melo).

  29. mikeplugh

    I don’t know how this whole thing will play out, but I’m sure of one thing. I doubt it’s controversial around these parts.

    The “Superfriends” crowd believes that they can do whatever they want in the NBA and will do whatever they can to bend the NBA to their collective will. Partly, there’s evidence to support this theory, and I think I have a nice little conspiracy theory to float as well.

    No one can doubt that the World Wide Wes, Maverick Carter, Humpty Dumpty crowd has leveraged everything in their power to put LeBron, Wade, Bosh, Melo and other players in ideal situations. In most cases, they got the situation *and* the money, but it’s noteworthy that the Heat guys all took less than max to make the situation work. They got Melo his situation and his extension. All it took was holding an entire franchise and its fan base hostage for about a year. Melo came off slightly better than LeBron in the way he handled it, but it was sort of dickish from a Nuggets’ fan perspective.

    Paul is about to turn New Orleans into Denver 2.0 this season. He will refuse to sign the extension anywhere but NY, but won’t say it publicly. He’ll say he loves NO, but the manipulators behind the scenes will take hostages and he’ll probably get the situation (NY) and most of the money.

    The conspiracy part of this is related to Isiah. LOL. Don’t tune me out. Zeke is a terrible GM and coach but there’s an important history. I believe that his generation of NBA players wanted to empower players (particularly Black players) in the system in a way that represents their true contribution. More than free agency they wanted complete control over their destinies as star players. We pay to see them. They should control their situations. Guys like Webber continued that line of thinking, but it’s only manifest in the LeBron crowd’s recent moves. The agents have power if the players work this way….hence the owners lockout. That’s what it was really about. You get control,…

  30. art vandelay

    Good….let them write nasty things about NYK…they said the same that there was NO way we could nab Melo when we had “zero assets”…everyone reported a million times he was going to Jersey and that they had all the assets to get him. They have been saying for years, dating back to the lebronathon that we have had no assets and no chance…and in spite of that we now have STAT and MELO. We had an awful pitch to lebron, new jersey’s was magnificent (even though they didn’t wind up with him either). I hope they keep it up….

  31. art vandelay

    I actually think that if the knicks follow-through with their cap clearing extravaganza for next summer, meaning not signing anyone this year for a contract beyond one year, then it is a relatively good sign that they have pretty good intel that Cp3 is pretty deadset on NYK…otherwise why not go fullsteam ahead on signing a nene now (and probably would not have picked up billups’ option for this year) or someone his ilk who is available, perhaps gasol?

    I would like to think through back channels (mainly 3: CAA, Melo and (sadly) Isiah) they have a pretty good read on the likelihood he is a Knick by now….and are planning accordingly, even though they may not know with 100% certainty.

    The only way to force a trade is with Cp3 saying he will go to no other team than the Knicks and the Knicks actually having sufficient cap space available to sign him next summer (which they will if they add no more contracts to next year’s payroll)….otherwise they lose that leverage.

  32. mikeplugh

    I honestly believe that the star players of today have taken to open war with the owners in trying to break the imbalance in the power of the NBA. If I’m a star, why shouldn’t I dictate the terms of my participation? I know that there have to be rules to achieve some sense of competitive balance…gotta look out for as many of the non-stars as possible by keeping jobs open in as many markets as possible…but dammit, I’m the reason people watch this game. The agents do the dirty work and force GMs and owners to bend to the will of the star player, while the star player can play the innocent in the whole thing. That’s why the owners locked out…the agents. Stern wanted to tell the agents to go (blank) themselves and that he’d shut the whole (blank)ing thing down if they don’t back off. Even Stern knows, though, that star players are the currency of the league and so he’ll put up with their power play to a degree. He’ll rig the system to guarantee more money to small market clubs because the big names are going to bolt for greener revenue pastures. He’ll rig the system to prevent NY and LA from snatching up 5 stars, even if he can’t prevent 3. (The secret is, Stern knows that these 3-man super teams are good for marketing.)

    The players that get (blank)ed are the little guys who will have to rot in the D-League instead of earning guaranteed NBA money, or the 18-year olds who can hold a franchise hostage. By the time an 18-year old rookie is any good, the initial contract is over and he plays in NY or LA. Not now. The whole thing was a secret war between players who are showing their cojones and owners who are trying to hang onto theirs. Period.

  33. John Kenney Post author

    @ess-dog which isn’t really as bad as it seems, given the high chance that this becomes the Amar’e Stoudemire Amnesty Rule if his knees give out. For the record, I love Amar’e and think he’ll be healthy. But remember, the amnesty clause can be used at any point during this CBA on contracts signed before the lockout. That’s why Balkman won’t be amnestied: far better to have a get out of jail free card in case any of our future big 3 suffer a career ending injury. We could amnesty and instantly have the money come off the cap, allowing us to reload around the other two.

  34. Caleb

    I don’t know that it’s out of the question for Chris Paul to leave $15 million on the table – he might want to do it – but I can’t think of any player who has done that while still in the prime of his career. Closest would be Karl Malone when he signed for a mil with the Lakers.

    You’d have to ask a marketing expert, but I don’t think it makes much of an income difference being in the NY market. It’s all national ads these days and you can get the same deals in Oklahoma City. (and this is coming from a New Yorker!)

    It does make a difference to be on a winner, and in that case I think CP3 has better options. (LA or Orlando just off the top of my head)

    All we heard for a year was how Carmelo was dead set on NY. But when it came down to it, he was like everyone else and didn’t love it enough to give up a penny.

    But who knows, maybe CP3 feels differently or his girlfriend lives in NYC and can’t travel.

  35. twoseam2007

    art vandelay:
    Good….let them write nasty things about NYK…they said the same that there was NO way we could nab Melo when we had “zero assets”…everyone reported a million times he was going to Jersey and that they had all the assets to get him. They have been saying for years, dating back to the lebronathon that we have had no assets and no chance…and in spite of that we now have STAT and MELO. We had an awful pitch to lebron, new jersey’s was magnificent (even though they didn’t wind up with him either). I hope they keep it up….

    I agree with all that. They had one key asset in Gallinari, Chandler and Felton played at the highest levels of their career that season with the knicks until they were shipped off. Also, we sent 7’0 mystery man Timofey Mozgov and i believe two first rounders.

    I look at the roster now and see Billups (his contract) and Fields as trade chips, and shumpert or douglas hopefully being able to turn themselves into one. We have no picks to trade. I feel as though the Knicks have a much better chance in getting him through FA, especially since the Hornets are currently owned by the association (stern). With no actual knowledge of the situation or anything like that, i just get the feeling that CP3 would be more inclined to waiting til FA to sign (for less money) with the team of his choice (Knicks), than carmelo was.

  36. Caleb

    Personally, I would try and bring in Tyson Chandler for $12 million or so, or maybe a little less to Nene, and then next summer do an S&T with Carmelo or even Stoudemire.

    Not that that will ever happen.

  37. twoseam2007

    Caleb:
    I don’t know that it’s out of the question for Chris Paul to leave $15 million on the table – he might want to do it – but I can’t think of any player who has done that while still in the prime of his career. Closest would be Karl Malone when he signed for a mil with the Lakers.

    You’d have to ask a marketing expert, but I don’t think it makes much of an income difference being in the NY market. It’s all national ads these days and you can get the same deals in Oklahoma City. (and this is coming from a New Yorker!)

    It does make a difference to be on a winner, and in that case I think CP3 has better options.(LA or Orlando just off the top of my head)

    All we heard for a year was how Carmelo was dead set on NY. But when it came down to it, he was like everyone else and didn’t love it enough to give up a penny.

    But who knows, maybe CP3 feels differently or his girlfriend lives in NYC and can’t travel.

    Orlando a better situation than NY? talk about being entrenched in bad contracts and no supporting cast. Plus, there is no guarantee Dwight stays just because Paul comes. The Lakers? even after the amnesty Walton or Metta, they’ll still be 30 MILLION OVER THE CAP.

  38. Caleb

    question: would the new CBA let a player sign a deal where has an option to opt out after 3 years? and grab a big raise?

  39. BigBlueAL

    I like what Hahn tweeted a few minutes ago: “Not denying CP3-to-NYK has many hurdles, but I recall a year’s worth of stories saying #Knicks had no chance at Carmelo, too.”

    BTW for the people who want to sign someone like Nene or Tyson Chandler right now, its not possible. No cap room this season. The Knicks should just stay the course and give themselves as much cap room as possible for next off-season, regardless if they are assured of CP3 signing with them or not. It will suck if the Knicks miss out on one of the Big 3 FA’s next off-season but still having that cap room will be huge give them serious flexibility.

  40. twoseam2007

    Caleb:
    Personally, I would try and bring in Tyson Chandler for $12 million or so, or maybe a little less to Nene, and then next summer do an S&T with Carmelo or even Stoudemire.

    Not that that will ever happen.

    Even though the idea of giving Chandler 12 mil is blasphemous in its own right, how would we go about doing that since we currently have nearly no cap room? Giving overrated players like Chandler upwards of 12 million dollars is one of the reasons why we almost had no basketball. (Don’t care how great you are supposedly on the defensive end, 10 points a game doesn’t merit a near max deal. BTW, for such an elite 7’0 footer, he couldn’t even pull in 10 boards a game.) Next year, we’ll have nearly 20 mil coming off the books.

  41. Caleb

    @41 obviously Orlando is not a better situation if Dwight leaves. But if he stays they could play with a pickup team and win. SO I was assuming they would speak beforehand. Unlike Elton and Baron Davis!

    ANd the Lakers would field a lineup with Chris Paul, Kobe, Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum.

  42. Caleb

    @44 by waiving Billups. Tyson Chandler was the 2nd best player on the NBA champs, so I dont really know what you’re talkikng about. He killled when he was running with Mr. Paul in Nola, too.

  43. twoseam2007

    Tyson chandler pulls in less rebounds than undersized David Lee. Just saying. Marc Gasol? 7 boards a game this year. Just because we need a center doesn’t mean we should jump course and go after one of these guys (BTW WE HAVE NO CAP SPACE FOR THIS OFFSEASON ANY HOW!) There is only one elite center in this league, and we only know who i am referring to. After that, not one of them cracks the top 50 players in the league. (Assuming Pau and STAT are listed as PFs)

  44. Caleb

    Tyson Chandler has been a top-10 rebounder every year of his career (by rebound rate) and he’s led the league at least once.. also a TS% around 70 last year (!) And haven’t even gotten to his defense. You notice the Hornets won 57 with him and can’t crack 50 without him, even with Okafor. And Dallas… how’d they do?

  45. twoseam2007

    Caleb:
    @41 obviously Orlando is not a better situation if Dwight leaves. But if he stays they could play with a pickup team and win. SO I was assuming they would speak beforehand. Unlike Elton and Baron Davis!

    ANd the Lakers would field a lineup with Chris Paul, Kobe, Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum.

    As i said earlier, the Lakers are 30 mil over the cap, so the only way they can get Paul is through trade. At the bare minimum, the lakers would have to part ways with Bynum, and possibly gasol as well. Is CP3 really signing a long term deal to play alongside a shell of Kobe Byrant?

    As for waiving Billups, ARE YOU KIDDING ME? They just picked up his option right before the lockout started? If they were thinking about going after one of these overrated centers, they wouldn’t have picked up his option in the first place? Does paying Billups 14 million to go away when his contract ends in a year after not playing a single second this year after just getting extended for this precise year, make any sense?

    It’s not like if we don’t end up with Paul, we end up with nothing. We’ll still have a ton of cap after the year and we’ll be able to use that on another player, god forbid the 3 part plan doesn’t come to fruition.

  46. twoseam2007

    Caleb:
    Tyson Chandler has been a top-10 rebounder every year of his career (by rebound rate) and he’s led the league at least once.. also a TS% around 70 last year (!) And haven’t even gotten to his defense. You notice the Hornets won 57 with him and can’t crack 50 without him, even with Okafor. And Dallas… how’d they do?

    What about the year before? He couldn’t even get minutes IN CHARLOTTE of all places. He averaged 6 and 6 IN CHARLOTTE!!! I COULD DO THAT!!! He is a huge risk. Plus, with charlotte, he only averaged four more minutes per game than injury plagued turiaf did this year!

  47. Z-man

    Why is a sign and trade for Billups’ $14 Mil (offer Nene say $11) not doable now? Is it because he is an UFA? Not that Denver would do it but I thought it was possible…

    @25 Understood, but the problems with getting D-Will are even greater than they are with CP3. I would like to believe that CP3 would hold off and take less $ but agree with Caleb that that would be a rarity in today’s day and age. And to get them, will we end up with a team without a single non-scrub player that came up throught the draft? Damn, I hope Shump rocks the house and makes all the PG talk moot!

  48. Jim Cavan (@JPCavan)

    Caleb: You’d have to ask a marketing expert, but I don’t think it makes much of an income difference being in the NY market. It’s all national ads these days and you can get the same deals in Oklahoma City. (and this is coming from a New Yorker!)

    I could wrong, but I think there’s a difference between national ad campaigns — say, for Nike — and media appearances, promotional events, etc. The former you can have no matter where you are. The latter you can do a lot more of if you’re in a city where more of that stuff goes on. Would this make up for the $15 million if Paul came to New York and left that money on the table? $10 million? $5 million, even? Who knows.

    @Brian: Thanks for clarifying / debunking Hollinger’s inflated $40 million figure — knew that sounded way off.

    As BBA just tweeted about two minutes ago, I think we need to temper this idea that it’s CP3 or bust. The new CBA, while certainly not ideal, still gives us some pretty good wiggle room to build. If Fields and TD progress and Shumpert becomes a steal, by February we might be singing a slightly different tune altogether.

  49. BigBlueAL

    Yeah Jim but unfortunately many here dont feel that way and if they dont sign either of the Big 3 FA’s next year all we will be reading about is how that Melo trade killed the team’s future and stuff lol

  50. Ben R

    I personally think that once next summer comes along and the reality of Paul leaving $15 million on the table to play in NY when he could get max offers to play in LA with Griffin (who will be better than Melo or Amare) or with Howard in Orlando (or NJ or wherever he ends up) will make coming here seem like the terrible choice it actually is.

    Right now people are obessed with the Big 3 but the history of the NBA is much more littered with Big 2’s and a great supporting cast than three great players and 12 scrubs. Does anyone really think Miami was better served with Bosh rather than 2-3 more very good role players next to Wade and LeBron. The amount of gutting it takes to sign three in their prime all-stars makes it very difficult to build a cohecive team. Miami had the greatest player in the world a top 5 player and still only started to win when they hunkered down and played great defense. Do you ever see Melo and Amare doing that?

    I would love Paul but the Knicks will struggle with Amare, Melo, Paul and 12 scrubs if he even comes, which I think is unlikely. If we really want him and really want to give him a chance to succeed, I’m with Caleb, it will take getting rid of Amare or Melo, that way we can build a real team, and not just a poor-mans Miami Heat.

  51. Jim Cavan (@JPCavan)

    Ben R: Right now people are obessed with the Big 3 but the history of the NBA is much more littered with Big 2?s and a great supporting cast than three great players and 12 scrubs. Does anyone really think Miami was better served with Bosh rather than 2-3 more very good role players next to Wade and LeBron. The amount of gutting it takes to sign three in their prime all-stars makes it very difficult to build a cohecive team. Miami had the greatest player in the world a top 5 player and still only started to win when they hunkered down and played great defense. Do you ever see Melo and Amare doing that?

    This.

  52. Spree8nyk8

    I really wish Melo didn’t take the rap for the way Denver handled the trade situation last year. I mean he could have so easily taken the Lebron way out and said nothing about his intentions and walked away leaving Denver the same way that Lebron left Cleveland. But instead he was pretty forthright about his intentions giving Denver options and removing the false hope that they were going to be able to re-sign him. On top of that he went out every night and played. He could have dogged it and not put out much effort. Instead, he said This is what I want to do and intend to do, and until that becomes a reality I’ll do what I can every night to help my current team win. What more do you want from a player? I mean from my standpoint that would be the same as me finding a better job, telling my current job that I’m going to leave, but am willing to stay on until you find a replacement and I’ll help you train him so you aren’t hurting by my absence.

    Instead people hate on him for “holding Denver hostage”. Denver held themselves hostage. They knew where things were heading before the season started and did nothing. The man played out his contract up till the trade and had the decency to inform them that he was going to move on after. I think it’s nothing but admirable. The only fault I can put on Melo would be that maybe he could have left a little money on the table to help out the team. I know people point to Lebron and company for doing this, but they also had the luxury of coming together and knowing exactly what the numbers would need to be to get that done. Melo didn’t know, and I’d probably go a step further to say that if Paul and he were coming at the same time he would have done so. But I doubt many players would shave money off their salaries simply because a potential free agent maybe coming down the road.

  53. Z

    Boy, with my gurus Caleb and Ben R arguing against the thought of Chris Paul in NY, I guess I have to lessen my hopes, as depressing as it may be…

    Caleb:
    I don’t know that it’s out of the question for Chris Paul to leave $15 million on the table – he might want to do it – but I can’t think of any player who has done that while still in the prime of his career. Closest would be Karl Malone when he signed for a mil with the Lakers.

    Well, like you said, who knows what motivates Chris Paul, but there have been cases of athletes leaving serious money on the table (extenuating as some may be):

    Paul Pierce likely gave Boston a home town discount by taking a $6 million/year shave off of his previous contract.

    Though it’s hard to quantify, Kerry Wood definitely left millions on the table to return to Chicago.

    Derek Fisher left $8 million behind to return to Los Angeles.

    Cliff Lee left $28 million on Cashman’s table to return to Philadelphia.

    Bison Dele left $36 million behind to move to Beirut.

    These are just off the top of my head, but it DOES happen. It just doesn’t happen very often. (And when it does happen, the athlete either already has more money than they know what to do with, or is a really decent human being, or is clinically insane… let’s just hope Chris Paul is one of the three :)

  54. Spree8nyk8

    Honestly, I think that at least privately the brass should reach out to Orlando to see what interest they would have in an Amare/Howard swap. I mean Amare would be a good ticket draw for Orlando and then Paul and Howard could probably split the difference on what would be left. I know some of you think that Bynum is a better offer. But Amare did rank 13th in Espn’s player rankings and I don’t think Bynum is going to put people in the seats in Orlando. I think it’s at least worth the inquiry. If that happened you could go after Paul in the offseason and who knows maybe give Ill Will you mini exception next year. I know he can probably get more money elsewhere (especially putting up great numbers abroad), but I think his heart is in NY and I think THAT was a big part of why he went to China. I think he was worried about being stuck in Denver and figured go there and come back free.

    If that idea is stupid I’m not above hearing that, it’s just been a notion stuck in my head for awhile. The only negative I see on it is that Amare has been such a great embassador for the team, it would be fairly disloyal. idk, just a thought.

    Oh one more thing, I don’t think a paul/stat/melo big 3 is a poor mans Miami. Honestly I think it’s a better big 3 as Lebron and Wade are so similar.

  55. art vandelay

    To me, the difference in comparing Bosh to Cp3 as the 3rd star is that Cp3 is light year’s better, he would be the best of the Knicks’ triumvirate whereas Bosh is the worst of the Big 3 in Miami, and he would undoubtedly improve the games of our other 2 stars, whereas Bosh doesn’t make anyone around him better in Miami….so I still believe going after the best PG in the game of basketball is worth waiting one season, an abbreviated one at that, to see if it could be pulled off. If not, it is not like we are tanking 2-3 more seasons again….at best the Knicks will likely be second round playoff fodder anyway.

  56. cgreene

    Oh one more thing, I don’t think a paul/stat/melo big 3 is a poor mans Miami.Honestly I think it’s a better big 3 as Lebron and Wade are so similar.

    Thank you for saying that. Basketball is a sport more than any other that relies on chemistry and complimentary pieces. On paper (advanced stats) Wade, LeBron, Bosh is better than Melo, Stat, Paul but LeBron and Wade have very similar games that are hard to get to complement one another in late game half court set situations. Paul manages that… even though it did get the Heat to the Finals last year. Ha. But I am comparing their Big 3 with our potential Big 3. Ours would be more fluid.

    On another note why would CP3 want to go to either LAL or BOS? To join aging rosters with (in Boston’s case) a 1 year window? Btw if Rondo is apparently on the block, i’d be happy to have him. He’s the best player on the Celtics.

  57. twoseam2007

    Spree8nyk8:
    Honestly, I think that at least privately the brass should reach out to Orlando to see what interest they would have in an Amare/Howard swap.I mean Amare would be a good ticket draw for Orlando and then Paul and Howard could probably split the difference on what would be left.I know some of you think that Bynum is a better offer.But Amare did rank 13th in Espn’s player rankings and I don’t think Bynum is going to put people in the seats in Orlando.I think it’s at least worth the inquiry.If that happened you could go after Paul in the offseason and who knows maybe give Ill Will you mini exception next year.I know he can probably get more money elsewhere (especially putting up great numbers abroad), but I think his heart is in NY and I think THAT was a big part of why he went to China.I think he was worried about being stuck in Denver and figured go there and come back free.

    If that idea is stupid I’m not above hearing that, it’s just been a notion stuck in my head for awhile.The only negative I see on it is that Amare has been such a great embassador for the team, it would be fairly disloyal.idk, just a thought.

    Oh one more thing, I don’t think a paul/stat/melo big 3 is a poor mans Miami.Honestly I think it’s a better big 3 as Lebron and Wade are so similar.

    And bosh is not an elite player.

    The following formula is stupid, but imma throw it out there anyways if only to fuel my bias.

    Paul – 5th best player in the league
    Melo – 9th best in association
    STAT – 10th

    AVG # – 8

    LBJ – 1st
    Wade – 2nd
    Bosh – 40th

    AVG # – 14.333

  58. Caleb

    If I thought Carmelo Anthony was the 9th best player in the NBA or anything close to it I would have a different opinion. Same for Amare as the 10th best. I don’t think the Knicks would have been swept in the first round of that were true..

  59. danvt

    I’m looking forward to good campaigns from Fields, Shawne Williams, and Douglas. I hope Shumpert can be a solid contributor. Maybe Turiaf stays healthy. Maybe Jerome Jordan can get some rebounds and blocks off the bench. The Knicks have had some nice surprises recently. Walsh did a good job drafting. Was Shumpert his pick? Like, I mean, really his or Dolan/ Isiah’s? The Knicks could be a fun team to watch this year if we can develop some talent further, find some new talent from unexpected places and not overpay for talent.
    I don’t think it’s CP3 or bust, but, let’s wait for the right deal.

  60. twoseam2007

    Hey everyone, as Knick fans, we support each other as we do our team. A newsite has just gone up called http://nickjohnsonsmustache.dinstudio.com/ . This site touches on all things sports, with a concentration with New York teams of course. In fact two new interesting columns have recently gone up concerning CP3 going to NY and D12 going to NJ (potentially). Please check out the site, I along with the staff would really appreciate it We are also on twitter, @njmustache

  61. chrisk06811

    Here’s my take:
    -To me the most important point in the other post is the Hornets are owned by the league and will not be able to go out of their way to trade CP to the Knicks to make him happy.
    -If they trade Paul, they will get very strong offers whether he agrees in advance to sign or not. That hurts us a lot.
    -I know he wants to come here, but expecting he will leave $15M on the table is HUGE.
    It’s so different than Lebron. First, Lebron is one of the 5 best players in the world. In his mind, he was going to MIA to be the best player in the world and win 5 rings. He didn’t think Wade was as good as him, nobody did…and if they did, it wasn’t by much. For Paul, different story. He is not clearly better than Melo / Amare / Jeffires. He could be the 3rd best player on the knicks, not the best. He can’t expect to win titles every year. Last year, we saw the MIA model didn’t work. Even if he believes you can win w/ 3 superstars, there’s another team w/ 3 superstars…the best Paul can think is that we could compete with them.
    SO, in Lebrons head….best player in the world going down in history winning year after year in south beach. For Paul, very good player going to compete. No way that’s worth leaving $15M on the table. If it is to him, I love him already, and I thank him in advance for coming here and NOT passing to Jeffries.

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