That said, the games and clips I’ve seen of Thabeet show steady improvement in all afacets of his game. Assist/turnover is a little misleading here because he was never really required to pass in the UConn offense.

One of the points Calhoun made about Thabeet is that he is so green he doesn’t have bad habits to erase- instead you simply teach him to do things the right way and he goes forward and executes the plan to the best of his current ability. Because he came to the game so late I have a hard time fixing on a clear ceiling, but I think he will be a productive low double double guy, barring injury.

Interesting question… Great point on the higher % shots getting blocked more.
As far as “defensive presence” all-around: A great shot blocker also causes a lot of redirected shots and might even discourage players from even driving into the lane. Although, the first can’t be quantified from the box score and the second can’t easily be quantified period (could look at teams % of inside vs. outside shots and how that ratio changes based on opponents shot blocking).
On the other hand, blocked shots can fall right into the hands of the blockee for an open look. They can sail out of bounds. They can end up in teammate of the blockee’s hands. They don’t necessarily end a possession.

Ray,

If the hype is that he’s the next Dike, then I agree it’s a huge stretch. If it’s that he’s a very intriguing prospect and has a good chance at being a good interior defender and low-volume, high-efficiency scorer (sort of a Tyson Chandler, hopefully with some more consistency) then I’m buying.

I seriously doubt Thabeet falls like Lopez, but we’ll see.

Marc Berman has reported that Thabeet is the only player Donnie Walsh would be willing to give up a “decent” asset to trade up for.

http://www.nypost.com/seven/05312009/sports/knicks/walsh_has_eye_on_big_man_thabeet_171765.htm

Would be very interested to see how his splits vs. good and bad comp compare to others. I think he could get eaten up by the DeJuan Blair, Millsap, Maxiell, Anthony Mason types with strength and a low center of gravity, at least until he works on his strength and balance.

The passing and TOs are definitely a concern. I did see a youtube clip where he makes a couple of good entry passes to Adrien or someone, so maybe he can improve. I think passing is a pretty difficult part of the game. Big men who go on to become very good passers usually start out average or below. Thabeet has a long way to go just to get to average, but I think he might have the work ethic. And that’s what it’s going to take, someone like Eddy Curry who doesn’t work hard never picks it up.
Bad hands don’t seem like the easiest thing to improve. He does have to hold the ball high and avoid dribbling. Otherwise, I think a bad team lives with the turnovers and hopes he improves.

I don’t think he’s a slam dunk prospect by any means, and wouldn’t advocate him as anything but a low-volume scorer. Of course, it’s going to come down to his work ethic and desire more than minutes, system, pace, teammates, or anything else. He’s a really rare commodity–athletic 7-2 player with feel for blocking shots, decent college stats, and demonstrated improvement from season to season. With the upside he has, you really have to think about rolling the dice. Unless you’re taking someone you’re 100% sold on, like Blake Griffin.
If nothing else, I think his college numbers show that he can play in the NBA. How well has yet to be seen, but I don’t think he’s comparable to the raw Euro bigs (Darko, Skita,…) or to athletic college bigs who can’t (or don’t want to) play.

Thabeet’s rebound # stacks up a little better than I thought. If it’s real, and he becomes an 18-20% rebound rate guy, that would obviously change the picture. Interesting that Wallace and Mutombo were both true late bloomers – maybe given Thabeet’s relatively short time playing basketball, he’ll be another. He’s older than almost all his draft rivals, but the inexperience may balance the “upside”

And he does look like a terrific shot-blocker. Not sure I’m on-board with “great” lateral movement or any other defensive ability, but when you block shots that well it’s valuable, no matter what.

A couple of red flags, for me… if you look at his numbers against Big East and good NCAA tourney competition, vs. against bad teams of little guys, there’s a pretty big split. 17.4 rebounds and 5.4 blocks per 40, vs. 12.4 and 5.0. Not much dropoff in blocks, but suggests he may be padding rebound #s against short, unathletic types he won’t see at the next level. Of course, I don’t know how that dropoff compares to the usual… easy to look at some other players.

The other thing – he only had 17 assists all season, and 41 in his 3-year career — with 68 turnovers this year and 175 for the career. Against NBA players, he’ll be stripped every time he touches the ball, unless it’s a wide-open dunk.

UConn mostly avoided giving him the ball, for this reason. The idea of him playing much in a pick n roll or pick n pop scheme, seems like a long-range plan at best.

He’s an unusual, interesting prospect… interesting to see where he lands.

System and personnel, along with minutes and pace, will be important. Put him in Tyson Chandler’s shoes with Paul making plays for him, West drawing out one interior defender, and a bunch of 3-point shooters (Peja, Butler, Posey) who can help spread the floor and I think he gets 10 ppg despite New Orlean’s slow pace. He might struggle in an offense that lacks movement, where he’s got to go one-on-one. A guard who likes to play a two-man game with Thabeet and looks for him underneath would be huge for his scoring volume.

Between shot blocking, efficient low-volume scoring, and rebounding I think Thabeet will stay on the court. If not off the bat, then certainly if he continues to work hard to improve. Thabeet was on track to shatter the NCAA record for career blocked shots if he returned for a healthy senior year (118 shy, and never put up less than that in his 3 seasons). He’s got great lateral quickness as well. Might struggle with strength, fouls, and learning the game early, but I think he’s got what it takes to earn minutes on a 20 win team right away and eventually develop into an All-Defense type.

Here are blocks/rebound numbers
NCAA
———–TRB/30—-BLK/30
Thabeet—8.7———4.3
Wallace—-10.6——-3.8
Ratliff——6.7——–4.4
Dalembert–8.2——–4.0
Oden——-9.9——–3.4
Mutumbo—10.9——-4.7

Final NCAA Season
———–TRB/30—-BLK/30
Thabeet—10.2——–4.0
Wallace—-10.8——–3.8
Ratliff——6.9———4.7
Dalembert–8.0———2.9
Oden——-9.9——–3.4
Mutombo—10.7——–4.2

NBA
———–TRB%—–BLK%
Wallace—-19.1——5.2
Ratliff——13.1——7.2
Dalembert–18.1——5.8
Oden——-20.0——4.2
Mutombo—19.1——6.3

On balance, I see the makings of an elite shot blocker and solid rebounder. In college Thabeet was a significantly better rebounder than Ratliff, who went on to become a below average rebounding big in the NBA. He was on par with Dalembert in college, and moved up toward the Wallace/Mutombo range as a junior. I don’t see him falling short of the 15 reb-rate range which is sort of a cut-off for a solid rebounder, and he has the potential to get into that 18-20 reb-range of elite rebounders.

pippen has better 3 pt shooting numbers and rebounding than d wade. his assists per game are comparable. if you give wade a supporting figure whose BETTER than him his ppg would be precisely the same as pippens. you need 2 good teammates to win the nba thats for certain. no individual can win. dwayne wade is not durable. he cant put up those numbers for every game of his career. he will get hurt more often later in his career hes abowling ball. he knows he wants greatness and lebron is his boy. tthe knicks will team lebron and dwade with stephen curry and david lee. gallinari will develop. they will be UNSTOPPABLE. talk about imagination how many chances do you get in a lifetime where 4 top 10 players are free agents the same year. LETS GO KNICKS