Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Friday, April 25, 2014

One Months Time

“Oh well I look at you and say
It’s the happiest that I’ve ever been
And I’ll say I no longer feel I have to be James Dean
And she’ll say
Yah well I feel all pretty happy too
And I’m always pretty happy when I’m just kicking back with you”
–”Five Years Time” Noah and the Whale

For the first time in years, there is optimism for Knick fans. Looking at the reaction on Twitter, fans are eager to grab T-Mac jerseys first thing tomorrow morning from the NBA store. The Daily News put the words “Former All Star” in the title of one of their articles describing T-Mac. Even an old friend on my facebook seemed to wonder why I was so down on grabbing such a big name as Tracy McGrady.

My grades from yesterday’s post reveals that I’m less than pleased with how the team did on the trade deadline. While there seems to be a euphoric fog following the team, I’m curious how people feel things will work out. So I propose the following question: “In one month, what will the starting lineup and rotation look like?”

My optimistic side says:
Rodriguez
McGrady
Chandler
Gallo
Lee
bench: House, Harrington, Douglas

This lineup would mean that McGrady and Rodriguez are playing well, which from a long term perspective isn’t such a bad thing. Nothing would make me happier to have Rodriguez and Douglas relegate Duhon to the bench for good. I’d settle for Sergio starting, and Duhon coming off the bench, but that doesn’t bode well for Douglas’ future. Actually I could also live with House starting at point guard, and letting the offense run through McGrady. I imagine that might be the Knicks “best offensive 5″ team, which could prove useful considering their lack of size. What I would hate to see is this:

My pessimistic side says:
Duhon
Chandler
McGrady
Harrington
Lee
bench: Gallo, House, Bender

Duhon remains entrenched as starting PG, and between him and McGrady there’s no need for another PG, leaving Douglas and Rodriguez out of the rotation. D’Antoni finds Gallo/Chandler too small for the 4, and inserts Harrington into the starting lineup instead.

Somewhere in the middle lies:
Rodriguez
McGrady
Chandler
Gallo
Lee
bench: House, Harrington, Douglas, Bender

Yes a 9 man rotation wouldn’t be out of the question, although I don’t see a lot of minutes for Douglas/Bender. Chandler and Gallo rotate at the 4 defensively so neither are continually over matched. Duhon is nowhere to be seen, and the Knicks have 2 scorers off the bench in House & Harrington.

So how do you see the lineup in one month?

49 comments on “One Months Time

  1. BigBlueAL

    Im praying its your optimistic side but I somehow cant see D’Antoni taking Duhon completely out of the rotation. However, his revelation that its back to 7SOL makes me somewhat more optimistic since he basically admitted earlier in the season Duhon couldnt run the offense how he wanted.

  2. massive

    I feel its going to be more like:
    PG – Rodriguez
    SG – McGrady
    SF – Gallo
    PF – Harrington
    C – Lee
    Bench : House, Chandler, Douglas
    To me, this seems more likely because Gallo at PF is going to get run right through all the time. So Harrington becomes the starter, just because he’s a more physical player. Chandler comes off the bench because if we land max free agents, he’d likely be coming off the bench in favor of Wade/LeBron (even Johnson) with Gallo as their partner on the wing. And Duhon is probably the worst PG in the NBA, so Sergio should be able to relieve him of his duties.

  3. BigBlueAL

    No way, D’Antoni has often said he thinks Chandler’s best position is PF. I cant see Chandler or Gallo going to bench because D’Antoni has specifically said the rest of the season is important to continue to give big minutes to Chandler and Gallo.

    I think happiest person on the team should be Gallo because now with T-Mac and Sergio he has 2 guys who actually create shots for their teammates. I know many believe T-Mac is just a gunner but he is a very, very good passer who hardly turns the ball over which I believe was mentioned in the 3-blogger post earlier by the Rockets blogger. Hopefully Gallo wont go 6 minutes in between shots, although he better start making them again since he has been shooting horribly recently with his 3pt% dipping below 40% and his FT% now below 80%.

  4. taggart4800

    http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=4928424

    I think this above all others is perhaps what makes me positive about the recent trades. I know everyone can say these things in heinsight, but a small part of me thought this may well have been the case. When selling the Knicks to Wade and LBJ, there cannot be many bigger bargaining chips than having a former scoring champ on the roster who is not only willing to take a lesser role on the team, but take a pay cut to play with you.
    Having followed Donnie Walsh’s actions over the past two years, as we all have, its seems to me he is a smart PR man. His post deadline interview was very unrevealing, but it cannot come as a great surprise that suddenly his recently acquired former star is already on the charm offensive with the media. It just struck me in the artical that the things McGrady said were the result of numerous conversations held woth Donnie and the Knicks in which they wooed him with the idea of playing for the Knicks at MSG with Wade and LBJ.
    Once they had him convinced there is no wonder he wanted to be a knick so bad. Plus they have 29 games in which he can prove to the potential knicks that ‘Damn… Tracy can play…’. He seems pretty realistic that he is not at his best anymore but at 30 and taking a lesser role he could be lethal. I mean pair him with either LBJ or Wade and thats dangerous, but BOTH.
    I know three fourths of this post was effectively stating the obvious, that the knicks would be good with all three but i guess my real point is that i think Donnie and D’Antoni have been doing some good recruiting work behind the scenes.
    Delusional, Probably. Excited, Most Definately. After the above article it must bump up Donnie’s trade grade a modicum.

  5. latke

    Rodriguez, McGrady, Gallinari, Chandler, Lee

    There’s no doubt in my mind that within 2 weeks this will be the starting lineup. Duhon’s minutes will finally be reduced. He’s not coming back here next season unless it’s for really small bucks. I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s some winning. Weak teams generally have a little surge after the trading deadline’s over and everyone’s place is more solidified.

    Also of note: Cleveland loses to the Bobcats again! And there’s a good chance this will be the first round of the playoffs. Go Bobcats!

  6. taggart4800

    Whilst i am feeling somewhat delusional i feel i should add more. Now this will, and probably rightly so, get shot down in flames. But part of me also wants to beleive that a certain Mr. Curry could at least become servicable for the Knicks. He is after all quite talented at his best and if the arrival of two future HOF doesn’t motivate him then his career is almost definately over. However if they can get him going and the bridges aren’t completely burnt with D’Antoni then i could seeing him being at least (well probably at best) as useful as shaq has been this year.

    As for one month from now

    PG Rodriguez
    SG McGrady
    SF Chandler
    PF Harrington
    C Lee

    Gallo, House, Douglas and Duhon

    I think through necessity the whole lineup will be very fluid with each of the 9 seeing good minutes and probably spots from Walker. Also Chandler will see time at the 4 and Douglas the point. I don’t think D’Antoni will completely give up on Duhon and i think Harrington is a big body, that for all his ineptitudes can be a good scorer and plays hard.

  7. BigBlueAL

    For everyone freakin out about Donnie Walsh overpaying mediocre FA’s, interesting quote I just read in today’s Post from Walsh:

    “But I don’t want to put the franchise in the position that it was in before, where you’re signing mediocre players to make it look good but it isn’t good. I’m going to be conscious of that.”

  8. Z-man

    Here’s what I hope will be the case:

    PG Rodriguez
    SG McGrady
    SF Chandler
    PF Gallo
    C Lee

    Bench: Harrington, House, Douglas. Probably will need to spot in Bender at center.

    Would like to see Walker and Giddens get minutes as well, especially Walker.

    Wonder if there will be a Curry sighting before season’s end…

  9. Thomas B.

    Wow, you people really are optimists if you think McGrady will be healthy enough to play in a month. I wonder if he can. Very few players have come back at the same level following microfracture surgery. I can’t think of any player that looked good after 30 and after microfracture.

    Do you remember what Houston looked like four years ago? I mean he couldn’t jump at all. And Allan was really a spot shooter so the lack of movement is somewhat masked. McGrady isnt that type of scorer; he has to beat you to the spot with speed. I don’t think the speed is still there. He’s not out jumping anybody–except maybe Allan Houston. He might look alright for a few games, ala Bender, but after about a month the wear on the knees start to show, ala Bender.

    I know little of Sergio Rodriguez and never took note of his play but I already want him to start at PG.

    Rodriguez
    McGrady
    Gallinari
    Chandler
    Lee
    ——-
    Harrington, Douglas, Bender (would be nice to find some minutes for Walker but I know that isnt likely)

  10. Dan Panorama

    “I can’t think of any player that looked good after 30 and after microfracture.”

    Jason Kidd
    John Stockton
    Kenyon Martin

  11. Z

    Douglas
    McGrady
    Chandler
    Lee
    Curry

    Gallo, House, Harrington, Rodriguez.

    I think Gallo’s rookie wall will send him to a reserve role. And I think with the season lost, D’Antoni will let Curry start. And I think Douglas will play well enough to displace Duhon and Rodriguez, making us all feel somewhat good about his future.

  12. jaddddd1

    Taggart, you’ve gotta give up on Curry. He’s: A) done for the season B) fat and lazy.

    I really hope Mike D doesn’t continue to feel his irrational connection to Duhon as his PG, the guy can’t hit a shot and really doesn’t do much else of value. Sergio has got to get a shot to run the offense, right?

    As for T-Mac, D-Wade says he’s still got game, so until I see differently, I’m going to assume he’ll be at least serviceable. He’s already saying all the right things about taking a lesser role and lesser money, so he should start by showing he’s willing to do that this year too. Mike D wants to develop Gallo and Wilson the rest of the season, and T-Mac should be there to shephard them along and give them advice on things like how to score 13 points in 35 seconds and maybe someone can give T-Mac advice on how to win a 1st round playoff series. All joking aside I think he can be a good and valuable piece the rest of the year if healthy.

  13. Thomas B.

    @12

    Hope springs eternal. If you want my most likely roster:

    Duhon
    House
    Chandler
    Harrington
    Lee

    There, the back court from Hades with “Sir Spins Alot” up front. Happy now?

  14. massive

    Hey guys, T-Mac gets the start tonight. I wonder who the other four are, but it seems Sergio is coming off the bench. Only right I guess, can’t just start a point guard who’s new to the offense.

  15. Thomas B.

    @13 fair enough PGs like Kidd and Stockton who don’t rely on speed, jumping, and such seem to do better than the 6’7 plus scoring wings.

    K-Mart had his surgery well before 30–two of them actually I. And it took almost two years for him to get bck to being a solid player. Martin, to be fair isnt the same inside scorer that he was in NJ. He is more of a defensive player now is he not? The only of his advanced stats that have not dipped from his best season at age 26 is defensive rebounding percentage. Plus McGrady was never very durable even before the surgery.

    Great article at Basketprospectus.com on the matter.
    http://basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=923
    I’m not saying the article proves my point but…it really supports my point.

  16. Thomas B.

    Love this part:
    —–
    Surprisingly, players do not see a hit in their athleticism-related stats, with the exception of rebounding. Still, the harm to their shooting and scoring is enough that they are significantly less effective overall in their first season back on the court. They play fewer minutes and miss even more games than they did before the procedure.
    —–

    And what is it that McGrady is known for? Shooting and scoring. It is likely that “he will be significantly less effective overall” in his first eason following surgery. “They play fewer minutes and miss even more games than they did before the procedure.” For a guy who only played 41 games in the last two seasons, that is not good.

    I’m sure I’ll be wrong but maybe not this time.

  17. ess-dog

    I think right away we’ll see Duhon, TMac, Gallo, Chandler and Lee until Duhon blows it for the umpteenth time and then Rodriguez will slowly split playing time with him and eventually get the bulk of that pt at pg. Harrington will still be 6th man and House will take over Nate’s role, with spot minutes for Douglas. Bender might be completely out of the rotation in a month if we didn’t need another big. We maybe could’ve used Cardinal for 6-8 minutes a game, but oh well.

  18. Dan Panorama

    Yeah to be fair, I agree with you T-Mac is very very very unlikely to come back strong. Just wanted to point out there are success stories.

  19. Z-man

    Optimistically, T-Mac can probably be successful as an NBA player without playing the same game he used to. He is long enough, smart enough, and a good enough passer to play effectively w/o the explosive part of his former game. (In contrast, Allan Houston had nowhere to take his game after his surgery.) The big question for me is, can he guard anybody?

  20. Ted Nelson

    A great question is also, obviously, “How many wins will the Knicks have in the next month?”

    I would pretty much agree with Mike’s line-ups. Would add that T-Mac might have to guard 3s to be effective on most nights, depending on match-ups of course. Not a big deal, defensively Chandler or even Douglas or Duhon could guard quicker/better SGs and let T-Mac guard a slower 3.

    There’s only room for so many guards, but like BBA I don’t know that Duhon will be completely out. I mean I also hope Sergio makes Duhon redundant, but he’s the team captain and I really think D’Antoni will use any positive sign or negative from the set rotation to get him back out there.
    Douglas and House may be kind of redundant in the rotation. They might still play because they can both shoot and have reasons to play: House is “D’Antoni’s guy” who he pushed Nate out of town to get and Douglas is the Knicks lone rookie and one of the few guys who will definitely be here next season. (You know what will be really depressing? If Marcus Landry ends up being a decent NBA player and Giddens/Walker continue to stink… someone please tell me the Celtics cut Landry already.) Their games are not identical, but they end up giving you something similar (Douglas theoretically gives a lot more D, so if anything I hope he beats out House).

    I do think Rodriguez will get a fair chance to play (every chance even), so if he’s not in the rotation I think that’s on him. Same with Douglas. But neither in the rotation WOULD be a worst case scenario.

    One interesting thing I hadn’t really thought about is that if the Knicks were really, really interested in helping the Celts beat the Cavs as a motivation for the Nate deal they probably would have cut House and let him go back. He’d be redundant with Nate there, but give them some depth.

    “The Daily News put the words “Former All Star” in the title of one of their articles describing T-Mac.”

    Another in a long line, it seems. It was really nice to have an actual All-Star this year.

  21. Z-man

    I’ve been watching lots of youtube video of Rodriguez. He seems sort of like a poor man’s Jason Kidd. I looked at their early career stats and there were definitely some similarities, although Kidd played more than double the minutes in 3 years than Sergio did in 4. Kidd’s defensive and rebounding stats were much better, but Sergio clearly shoots better than Kidd did at that time. They had roughly equal assist and turnover numbers.

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&p1=kiddja01&y1=1997&p2=rodrise01&y2=2010

    I hope he gets lots of minutes to see whether he can improve. At 23, he looks to me to have some real potential.

  22. Ted Nelson

    “To me, this seems more likely because Gallo at PF is going to get run right through all the time. So Harrington becomes the starter, just because he’s a more physical player.”

    I don’t know if that’s true. Harrington is not a good defender (at least certainly not anymore, was highly regarded early in his career… not sure if that was accurate or not) and Gallinari is a lot better defensively than he’s given credit for (he’s basically given no credit and considered a Kyle Korver or whoever). Who was it that he just straight-up stole the ball from along the baseline in the first Bulls game last week? Taj Gibson maybe. He blocks almost a shot per 36 minutes. +/- is not always an accurate representation of a player’s production, but the Knicks are 6 points per 100 possessions better defensively when Danilo’s on the court, and 4 points/100 worse defensively when Harrington is out there.

    “I think happiest person on the team should be Gallo because now with T-Mac and Sergio he has 2 guys who actually create shots for their teammates.”

    I think that’s pretty accurate. (One caveat being that if McGrady takes 30 shots a night no one will be happy.)

    ” I know many believe T-Mac is just a gunner but he is a very, very good passer who hardly turns the ball over”

    He’s not a straight gunner, but he has often been an inefficient gunner in his career. Even if he has 10 assists/36, if he shoots 10-30 every night for 25 points… who cares? Iverson is also a pretty good passer, but he’s still a gunner. I’m not saying McGrady will force a ton of stupid shots, just that I’m scared he might. I don’t think he enthusiastically came to NY to be a late stage Grant Hill type, whatever he says to the media. I just don’t think he knows anything but trying to be the man. I hope D’Antoni can manage him/teach him and get the most out of him. I really hope I am wrong and T-Mac comes in with zero ego, a healthy chip on his shoulder, and does exactly what D’Antoni asks.

    “When selling the Knicks to Wade and LBJ, there cannot be many bigger bargaining chips than having a former scoring champ on the roster who is not only willing to take a lesser role on the team, but take a pay cut to play with you.”

    A bigger bargaining chip would actually be having a good team, or a player who is not washed up (to one degree or another). T-Mac has to take a pay cut next season. Framing it as if he is willing to take a pay cut for the greater good and to win is a coping strategy for him (or whatever a psychiatrist would call it).
    The biggest bargaining chip to lure LeBron/Wade, in my opinion, is still Wade/LeBron. But, yeah, if T-Mac can excel in a lesser role, he could help them out. He’s got 29 games to either prove that he can play or can’t play… will be interesting to see which it is.

    “i could seeing him being at least (well probably at best) as useful as shaq has been this year.”

    He’s never in his career been as useful as Shaq is this year. Shaq does these crazy things called defend, rebound, and play intelligently. His game has deteriorated, but his b-ball IQ is still high. Curry’s game has also deteriorated (from a much lower starting point), and his b-ball IQ is still low. MAYBE Curry can have a role on the team, but his impact will be one dimensional. Seeing as he can’t fit in this season, I don’t see how he will if LeBron or even just T-Mac has the ball in his hands constantly next season. He’s a great trade chip or 2011 salary cap creator, though.

  23. Ted Nelson

    “But I don’t want to put the franchise in the position that it was in before, where you’re signing mediocre players to make it look good but it isn’t good. I’m going to be conscious of that.”

    Definitely a positive sign, BBA. However, I don’t think Donnie Walsh is going to purposely sign someone to a stupid contract (who does that on purpose? not even Isiah). I am worried that he will not see Amare or someone as a mediocre player, and will overpay him if he stikes out on the big 4. Jermaine O’Neal, for example, was not a mediocre player in his prime, but he also wasn’t the best player in the NBA (or even a very good offensive player period: his TS% only topped 53% in Indy once). Donnie still paid him like he was. That was a bad contract Walsh gave out, even though he certainly didn’t intend it to be. O’Neal had bad luck with health, but even at his best was not a $20 mill per player. Rudy Gay, for example, is not a BAD player, I just don’t have any interest in signing the guy for more than MLE money.

    I am also worried that if he does take a patient approach this offseason the Knicks just gave away a young guy who is likely at least as good as Joe Smith (in my opinion) and a 2011 high lottery pick (and maybe 2012, too) for the honor of winning 30-odd games with T-Mac and Lee instead of Crawford and Randolph. That’s the price of going all in for LeBron, though.

  24. Ted Nelson

    Interesting discussion about micro-fracture, Thomas, Dan, and Z-Man. Will be interesting to see. I tend to agree with Z-Man in 23. Maybe being less able physically will force McGrady to change his game for the better. He’s not a good scorer. He’s an Allen Iverson kind of scorer (besides one season in Orlando when he scored efficiently on a lead league leading scoring volume). His best role would be to make plays for others more and take shots more in the flow of the offense. Along with “can he guard anybody?” I would ask whether he can put aside his chucking ways and toe a thin line of creating more for others and less for himself. I mean, there are plenty of Knicks who can’t guard anybody…he’d fit in.

    Houston was also, what, 33 when he had the surgery and like 35 when he tried to hobble back. In a way I am surprised he couldn’t come back, since he was a spot-up shooter. He might have been a 10th man used in shot minutes, but I thought Houston’s shooting touch would keep him in the NBA. If he were 30 when trying to come back I think it would have (but who knows…).

  25. Z

    Was reading McGrady’s press conference recap in the Post. McGrady says “If these guys want to bring in Lebron, D-Wade, Bosh Amar’e, I’d be a damn fool not to want to stay here. I would definitely embrace the opportunity where money is not an issue.”

    Seems like no matter what, money is an issue. The Knicks can’t afford to pay him even the veterans minimum if they sign two max players. And isn’t McGrady’s cap hold about $35,000,000 this summer, making it necessary to renounce him? (Berman says in the article that McGrady could play for the mid-level or bi-annual exception, but the Knicks don’t have either this year because they are finally under the cap). So how exactly DOES McGrady come back, even if he wants to?

  26. Brian Cronin

    The crazier thing is that if the Knicks sign two max free agents, they literally cannot sign anyone other than rookies.

    Heck, at the moment, they can’t even sign two max free agents, technically – they’re about a million dollars shy (at a $53 million cap), but I believe the thinking is that if the Knicks could get two max free agents, while they wouldn’t put a lot of money back on the table, they would be willing to give up $500,000 each this year, and that’s all they would need to do to get both of them within a $53 million cap.

    Now, if the two fellows are willing to put even more money back on the table, well, then the Knicks could start thinking about vets (or even young players – the minimum salary for a 2nd year player is currently way too high for the Knicks), but otherwise, they could only afford to add rookies to surround the two players and Gallo, Chandler and Douglass (plus, I suppose, whatever they could trade Curry for – you might be able to get two-three role players signed to two-year deals in exchange for Curry. In fact, let me take a look and I’ll tell you what I can come up with).

  27. Thomas B.

    It seems the only way TMac can return and get two max guys is if Curry opts out. So there is no way I can see. Who knows he may not be worth a return trip.

  28. Brian Cronin

    Examples of some possible Curry deals (NOTE: These trades are only if you want to punt your 2011 salary cap room to bring in a couple of role players – if you don’t want to do that, like try to trade Curry instead for one overpaid impact player or if you want to just let Curry’s contract expire, then fair enough)

    Ronny Turiaf, Vladimir Radmanovic and one more cheap salary filler for Curry – saves Golden State $4 million in 2011/12.

    James Posey and Darius Songalia for Curry – saves New Orleans $7 million in 2011/12.

    Charlie Bell and Dan Gadzuric for Curry – saves Milwaukee $4 million in 2011/12.

    Ryan Gomes, Ramon Sessions and Ryan Hollins for Curry – saves Minnesota the ENTIRETY of Curry’s contract – that’s a lot of cap room – in 2011/12.

    It would also be a quick way for Orlando to get out from under Gortat and Bass’ salaries, but I bet they think that they could trade Gortat for real players.

  29. Brian Cronin

    It seems the only way TMac can return and get two max guys is if Curry opts out. So there is no way I can see. Who knows he may not be worth a return trip.

    They could also trade Curry to a team where the Knicks take back a longer contract but one making less than Curry – that would free up cap space.

    They could trade Douglass for cap room.

    But yeah, there’s not a lot of ways to free up that million.

    It seems to me that T-Mac feels that if these guys came, they’d each take less than the max. Which could be true (but likely isn’t).

  30. BigBlueAL

    Ill be the first to admit I LOVED Allan Houston and have a bias opinion, but he was much more than just a spot-up shooter offensively!!!!

  31. Z

    Brian– don’t forget this one:

    Curry and our 2014, 2016, and 2018 1st round picks to Houston for Jared Jeffries…

  32. nicos

    I hope I’m wrong but I see Duhon still starting (though hopefully playing far fewer minutes) as he clearly has some kind of incriminating pictures of D’Antoni stashed somewhere. Though if D’Antoni is serious about pushing the ball it’s hard to see Duhon getting any serious minutes.

    While I don’t want to move Gallo out of the starting line-up, I wouldn’t mind giving him a couple of games off- whether it’s the forearm, the back, or just the rookie wall, he’s struggling and that cockiness that we saw early in the season seems largely gone (which actually worries me more than the dip in shooting%). He didn’t really get a break for the All-Star game so maybe let him sit a couple of games and get his legs/head back.

    It’d be nice if Tmac looks to take 10-15 shots a game but I won’t believe till I see it. The guy I worry about him taking shots away from is Chandler- He probably has as much or more trade value than Gallo and I don’t see him really fitting in with LBJ nearly as well so I think there’s a good chance that he’s going to get moved if LBJ does come. If he can finish out the year averaging say 16.5 with a TS of 53% (and with his second half numbers better than that) he’s going to look pretty good to a lot of teams. And as it’s the final year of his contract, his value is going to be higher over the summer than it will be at the trade deadline when a team going to be more worried about either losing him or having to overpay him.

    Hopefully Sergio is a poor man’s Kidd rather than a poor man’s Jason Williams. He could turn out to be a more under control Williams though without the 3 point range (in fact he’s probably that now).

    I think D’Antoni is going to keep the rotation at eight but trading Jeffries really hurts an already bad defense so unfortunately I think there’s the potential, given the tough schedule, for plenty of garbage time minutes to get a look at Walker & Giddens (and Douglas too). I should clarify that I don’t think the Knicks will win fewer games than would have without the trades (Tmac at 80% still probably gives you more value than Jeffries and S-Rod should almost certainly give us more than Hill was giving us (at least short term). But there are going to be nights when shots aren’t falling that could be very, very, ugly.

  33. Robert Silverman

    Question – If the Nix agree to a buyout w/Curry (say for 2mil less than his current contract), does that lop $’s off the cap? Or just save the Nix ‘real’ dollars

  34. cgreene

    @37 Dollars come off cap if player is bought out of final year of contract prior to the start of the season.

  35. Brian Cronin

    Up to 50% of the contract (if it is an option like Curry’s is).

    So the Knicks can save up to $5.5 million off of their cap.

    But realistically, it would be less than $5.5 million (Curry will likely not accept anything less than $9 million – heck, probably not less than $10 million) – that’s just the most that they can take off of their cap by buying Curry out.

  36. Ted Nelson

    Teams over the cap can always sign players to veterans minimum deals (provided they have the roster spot), it’s a salary cap exception. The team doesn’t even have to pay some or all of the salary, not sure about the specifics. The league or players’ association picks up the contract, I think.

    “Ill be the first to admit I LOVED Allan Houston and have a bias opinion, but he was much more than just a spot-up shooter offensively!!!!”

    I knew this was coming and was going to respond to my own comment… I meant that he could have stayed in the league as a spot-up shooter… i.e. he was a capable spot-up shooter.

  37. Loathing

    In one month huh….

    PG – S-Rod
    SG – T-Mac
    SF – Chandler
    PF – Gallo
    C – Lee

    Bench: House (PG/SG), Harrington (SF/PF), Bender (C)

    Douglas would get spot minutes…I don’t see him getting substantial time until next season.

  38. Brian Cronin

    Teams over the cap can always sign players to veterans minimum deals (provided they have the roster spot), it’s a salary cap exception. The team doesn’t even have to pay some or all of the salary, not sure about the specifics. The league or players’ association picks up the contract, I think.

    But what I’m unsure of is – does this exception become available as soon as you use up all your cap room, or do you have to begin the free agency period over the cap for it to work?

    According to that great Hoopdata article:

    In order to use your cap space, you must renounce all your exceptions, including the MLE and any player Bird Rights you have.

    So the MLE must be renounced but not the veteran exception?

  39. Ted Nelson

    I’m not sure either. I assume the NBA wouldn’t set up the rules so that a team in the Knicks position had to sign only undrafted rookies, though.

  40. Brian Cronin

    I’m not sure either. I assume the NBA wouldn’t set up the rules so that a team in the Knicks position had to sign only undrafted rookies, though.

    I wish there was a way of telling for sure. Hell, I don’t even know how the veteran’s exception works exactly- can you sign more than one guy to it if you’re out of cap space?

  41. Ted Nelson

    “MINIMUM PLAYER SALARY EXCEPTION — Teams can offer players minimum salary contracts even if they are over the cap. Contracts can be up to two years in length. For two year contracts, the second season salary is the minimum salary for that season. The contract may not contain a signing bonus. This exception also allows minimum salary players to be acquired via trade. There is no limit to the number of players that can be signed or acquired using this exception.”

    http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm#Q19

    I have always taken this to mean the minimum amount that a player can make, i.e. if he is a veteran he can’t make less than the vets’ min. Then again, there’s also the bi-annual ($1 mill) exception, but that will actually be over $2 mill next season… more than the veterans’ minimum. Maybe this (above) literally means league minimum period, as in rookie minimum. However, I think veterans also qualify just from the way the media talks about free agent situations.

  42. Ted Nelson

    And this also doesn’t answer what happens if the team is under the cap entering the period. With the MLE teams under the cap don’t get one…

  43. Ted Nelson

    Ok, here’s something relevant in #33:

    “A renounced player no longer counts toward team salary, so teams use renouncement to gain additional cap room. After renouncing a player, the team is still permitted to re-sign that player, but must either have enough cap room to fit the salary, or sign the player using the Minimum Salary exception. “

  44. Z

    Brian and Ted– I think the answer lies in Question 14, bullet point #10 of the FAQ:

    According to that point teams under the cap have to renounce the following exceptions: Mid-Level, Bi-Annual, Disabled Player, and Traded Player exceptions.

    There is no mention here of the veterans minimum exception, so it seems a team can exceed the roster charge (rookie minimum) to sign a vet to a minimum contract. If so, that would pave the way for McGrady to sign with the Knicks after being renounced this summer, if he’s willing to play for the minimum and the Knicks sign 2 max guys.

Comments are closed.