Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Saturday, November 1, 2014

On the Greatest of Days, a Poll to End All Polls

This is it, folks — the answers to the most pertinent questions facing the Knicks this season. The Knickerblogger contributors answered a series of poll questions and, like Moses, I have been commanded to bring these great truths before you. As is a proper scholarly presentation of data, I’ll present to you the poll results in percentages, so that you don’t know what kind of sample size we’re dealing with. Just assume that Knickerblogger articles are outsourced to India, where over 500 factory workers churn out daily articles which are then posted under a handful of names, and all those workers have participated in this poll. I now present to you… THE POLL:

 

Question 1: Will Amare Stoudemire play Over or Under 47.5 games?
Over: 60% Under 40%

My Take: It seems like Amar’e had some immediate family members voting in this poll. Extreme optimism is the only explanation I would have for someone expecting Amare to play in over half of the Knicks regular season games. I’m a realist. I’m such a realist, in fact, that when I read The Three Little Pigs to my daughter at night, I change the characters into three purchasing agents and a janitor who just wants a new mop. It’s never too early to teach the wonders of bureaucracy to your loved ones. That’s why I picked under.

 

Question 2: Will Andre Bargnani play Over or Under 28 MPG?
Over: 30% Under 70%

My Take: For Bargnani to play over 28 MPG, he will most likely have to see significant time at Center. I really hope he doesn’t play more than 28 MPG…

 

Question 3: Will Cole Aldrich play Over or Under 862 minutes?
Over: 20% Under 80%

My Take: I took under on this. It’d be great if Cole could become a solid contributor as a backup center, but I just don’t see him getting more than 10 MPG with Tyson, Kenyon, Amare, Bargs, Melo and Metta all ahead of him at the 4 and/or 5. Either way, I doubt Cole Aldrich will make or break our season.

 

Question 4: Will Metta World Peace shoot Over or Under 34.2% from three?
Over: 50% Under 50%

My Take: I took over. 34.2% is what Metta shot last year, after a disastrous 2011-12 where he shot under 30%. Prior to that horrible season Metta shot no lower than 35.5% for 5 straight seasons. I think he gets back to that 35-37% level in this offense.

 

Question 5: Will Tim Hardaway Jr. shoot Over or Under 36.0% from three??
Over: 80% Under 20%

My Take: Just as with quantum mechanics, Hardaway Jr.’s shooting percentage exists as a probability of observation and measurement. The act of measuring his 3pt% causes the set of shooting probabilities to immediately and randomly assume only one of the possible values. That is, there is no determining Hardaway Jr.’s 3pt% for the year, as it exists in a state where the possibility of being over or under 36% is equally probable and by measuring his makes and misses, we actually change the state of his 3pt%. Trust me, I have a degree in Physics. Move along.

 

Question 6: Will Carmelo Anthony win Over or Under 0.5 Player of the Month awards?
Over: 70% Under 30%

My Take: Melo always gets hot for a stretch and people love them some scoring. No question this is an over.

 

Question 7: Will Chris Smith play Over or Under 20 minutes total?
Over: 11% Under 89%

My Take: I think we’re all holding out hope that Chris Smith will collect his paycheck, never see the floor, and possibly be cut in a few weeks. Who knows, though maybe the league offices will force the Knicks to play the guy in order to prove they didn’t just sign him in an under-the-table agreement with JR. It would at least create comedic value in the season.

 

Question 8: Will Pablo Prigioni start Over or Under 40 games?
Over: 30% Under 70%

My Take: I think I said over on this. I don’t remember now. It depends if Woodson wants to start games off with the 2 PG lineup. Doesn’t really matter to me, as long as Prigs gets plenty of playing time.

 

Question 9: Will the Knicks win total be Over or Under the Nets win total?
Over: 30% Under 70%

My Take: Uh oh! Aren’t we the cynical bunch! If I had to guess on my own, I think both teams will win in the mid to high 40s. I just chose under because I greedily consume any and all pessimistic, anti-Knick analysis that comes burbling to the fore, assuming it to be the absolute unassailable truth; it’s easier than thinking for yourself.

 

Question 10: Will the Knicks rank defensively Over or Under 10.5 in team rankings?
Over: 90% Under 10%

My Take: Does it really make sense to predict that the Knicks will be a top 10 defense? I mean, I’m not saying it won’t happen. I’m just saying it’s very unlikely. Yeah, they added Metta, but they also added Bargnani, will possibly be giving Amare more playing time, and just gave JR a new contract. But hey, give me enough beer and I’ll probably see the Knicks as a top 10 defense this year. Or maybe I’m just looking for free beer.

 

Question 11: Will the Knicks total Over or Under 7.5 playoff wins?
Over: 10% Under 90%

My Take: See, we’re not all cynical trolling jerks! 10% of us think the Knicks will make the Eastern Conference Finals! I’m not in that 10%, however. I do think we win a first round series, though! It’s not all bad!

 

Thus concludes The Great Poll of October 2013. Sorry for all the season spoilers! Pretend you never read this article, or give yourself a head injury, so you can be surprised how the season turns out!
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Please don’t give yourself a head injury.

45 comments on “On the Greatest of Days, a Poll to End All Polls

  1. Hubert

    What the hell? I go away for a few days and the Wizards make the stupid trade I knew they were going to make but not the one that would have bailed us out, dashing all my fantasies….and now this site has been utterly redesigned!!!!

    I’m lost at sea.

    Thank god basketball is coming back tonight to save me.

  2. Nick C.

    1. over – color me optimistic on Amare
    2. over – I just see Woody as set in his ways and Bargs as too major an acquisition to not sit, I still think he plays his pets.
    3. under
    4. over
    5. under
    6. over
    7. over
    8. under
    9. over – If I hear references to the trades that brought KG and Allen to Boston being referenced again … It was how many years ago 6? 7? athletes age.
    10. Is over 10.5 mean 11-30 as in bigger number or over as in 1-10 as in better ranking? I see them in the tweens to mid teens, even though they lost two nothings on defense in Novak and Copeland.
    11. under – I can see them getting past Chicago, Indy, Brooklyn or whoever in the second round but not with certainty. I think 6+ wins is a lock.
    11.

  3. Mike Kurylo

    I’m shocked that more people didn’t go with 862 minutes for Cole. That’s what Copeland did last year. Sure with Martin for the whole year and the possibility that Amar’e is healthy makes for fewer minutes. But Aldrich is a pure 5. I’m not sure that Bargnani plays a whole lot at the 5, and I don’t see World Peace competing for minutes either.

    My hopes are that Woodson realizes that the Knicks could be a pretty good defensive team. Pablo, Shumpert, MWP, Chandler, and Martin, are all above average defenders. And I’d put Aldrich in that group. Unlike Martin, he has the size and rebounding to give the team basically the same look as with Chandler. Throw in a healthy dose of Melo, a bit of JR for offense, Felton to dribble the ball, and every game go three guards. A bit of Beno, and a dash of Amar’e.

    Am I missing anyone? Oh yeah how could I forget, maybe see if Toure Murry can play before May comes around.

  4. Hubert

    Also, brilliant:

    “I’m such a realist, in fact, that when I read The Three Little Pigs to my daughter at night, I change the characters into three purchasing agents and a janitor who just wants a new mop. It’s never too early to teach the wonders of bureaucracy to your loved ones.”

  5. ephus

    I’m coming back with my second annual Knicks golf analogy:

    Double bogey – Miss the playoffs (Blow it up)

    Bogey – Any first round elimination (Woodson is gone but Carmelo is brought back as the core of the next iteration)

    Par – Any second round elimination except Miami

    Birdie – Making conference finals or taking Miami to 7 games in the second round

    Eagle – Making finals

    Double Eagle – Winning Championship

    I expect the Knicks to finish with around 51 wins, take the Atlantic division, be the 4 seed and the Nets as the first round opponent. If the Knicks make the second round and Miami has cruised through as the #1 seed, I could call the season a success if the Knicks took them to 7. If the Knicks face anyone else, a second round elimination means that the Knicks treaded water for another year.

    I will feel like Red on the bus to Mexico if the Knicks make the Finals. I do not have the words to describe how I would feel if the Knicks won it all.

  6. Hubert

    I found this shockingly optimistic:

    Question 10: Will the Knicks rank defensively Over or Under 10.5 in team rankings?
    Over: 90% Under 10%

  7. thenamestsam

    Hubert, I think over in that case means a number higher than 10.5, meaning they will be 11th or worse on defense.

    A question based on last night’s games: How good of a coach do people think Doc Rivers is? It seems like the Clips have a lot of buzz at the moment, partially due to the new wings, but largely due to Doc. But I’ve never thought he was especially great. That offense the Celtics ran was a trainwreck for a number of years, and the defense seemed like more of a product of KG and Thibs than Doc. Doc is great on the out of bounds plays (and the Clips ran some nice ones last night), and the Celtics always seemed to respect the hell out of him, but I’m not convinced he’s in the top tier of coaches who really move the needle. I didn’t see much in terms of scheme from the Clips last night that looked any better than what I was used to from last year. Any thoughts?

  8. massive

    If the Knicks don’t make it to the final four, I would hope Shumpert has his breakout season and that the Knicks don’t trade him, but actually extend him in the off season. If he hits 2015 free agency, I have no doubt Chicago will go after him hard. I don’t want to be tormented by Rose and Shump for 8-10 years.

    That’s all this season really comes down to for me. I need Shumpert to break out, and I believe he will. I’m not deluded enough to expect a championship. I also don’t know how we beat the Bulls or the Indiana Jump Straight Ups in the 2nd round. If Shumpert can be a 15/5/5 guy with 2 steals a night and suffocating defense, you have to think we extend him, right?

    Gun to my head, I’m taking a Shump extension over a Melo re-up.

  9. massive

    Doc Rivers is the Kobe Bryant of coaches, so to speak. Because he drew up a bunch of plays to get Ray freaking Allen open at the end of close games (with the help of dirty screening from KG), people think he’s the best coach in basketball not named Gregg Poppovich. It’s stupid, really. Doc Rivers is not anything special.

  10. KnickfaninNJ

    Well the Lakers scored something like 116 points, which is a lot. I am more impressed with D’Antoni than Rivers, since this was unexpected given their personnel. The Clippers still scored 106 or so. So the Clippers last night seemed to have a good offense that was outweighed by a bad defense. That seems like it reflects the personnel rather than the coaching. Rivers didn’t seem like an impact coach in this game and since his results in Boston also seem to reflect his personnel there, I would agree he isn’t an impact coach.

    Overall, the public’s impression of who is a good coach seems more related to overall wins, not overall wins with respect to the team personnel or to anything innovative a coach does. Spoelstra innovated with Miami’s offense and won two titles and Woody innovated with NY’s offense and coached them to first place in the Atlantic when most pundits predicted a significantly lower finish, and did this despite many injuries. Woody and Spoelstra didn’t get many accolades; and, in fact, George Karl won coach of the year for getting Denver the number of wins Denver was expected to get in the first round and then flaming out in the first round of the playoffs. So I take public coaching assessments with a big grain of salt.

    This sentence is being added as an edit. I am very happy to report that the edit button works!

  11. Mike Kurylo

    KnickfaninNJ October 30, 2013 at 10:38 am
    This sentence is being added as an edit. I am very happy to report that the edit button works!

    So it looks like we’re gonna lose the quote button. But we do gain bold, ital, html, quote, and you can just copy & paste it yourself. I think the font issues are fixed, and without that quote button, the spacing on comments appears better. Of course considering browser YMMV.

  12. Kevin Udwary Post author

    Mike Kurylo October 30, 2013 at 9:13 am
    I’m shocked that more people didn’t go with 862 minutes for Cole. That’s what Copeland did last year. Sure with Martin for the whole year and the possibility that Amar’e is healthy makes for fewer minutes. But Aldrich is a pure 5. I’m not sure that Bargnani plays a whole lot at the 5, and I don’t see World Peace competing for minutes either.

    Woody loves the small ball, though. Cole only got 11 MPG in the preseason, no way he gets that in the regular season. I would love to see him get plenty of time behind Tyson, but I don’t think it’ll happen. Stat, Kenyon, Bargs and even Melo and Metta will probably see more time at the 5 than Cole, not that I think it makes any sense.

  13. flossy

    That’s all this season really comes down to for me. I need Shumpert to break out, and I believe he will. I’m not deluded enough to expect a championship. I also don’t know how we beat the Bulls or the Indiana Jump Straight Ups in the 2nd round. If Shumpert can be a 15/5/5 guy with 2 steals a night and suffocating defense, you have to think we extend him, right?

    Gun to my head, I’m taking a Shump extension over a Melo re-up.

    Last year there were zero NBA players who averaged at least 15/5/5 with 2 steals per game. Take away the steals, and the only 15/5/5 guys were LeBron, Kobe and Westbrook. The only player to do better than 15/5/5/2 per 36 was Manu.

    Suffice it to say I don’t think Shumpert is going to join those ranks this year, or probably ever.

  14. mokers

    Gun to my head, I’m taking a Shump extension over a Melo re-up.

    If it’s Melo at a Max extension vs. a shump extension, I would say agree. If it is Melo at a $18-20 Million per year extension, I would call it a push.

  15. flossy

    Hell, even if you reduce the criteria to 12 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists and 1 steal per game, the list of players who satisfied those criteria last season are as follows: LBJ, Durant, Harden, Westbrook, Curry, Kobe, Wade, Paul George, Paul Pierce, Nic Batum, Iguodala, John Wall, Josh Smith, Jrue Holiday and Rajon Rondo.

    In any case, Shumpert has a long way to go before we can start thinking of him on the same tier as even the lesser of those players.

  16. DRed

    “Suffice it to say I don’t think Shumpert is going to join those ranks this year, or probably ever.”

    You saying Shump isn’t as good as the great Tyreke Evans? It’s a hard thing to do consistently if your name isn’t LeBron James, but Shump seems to have the well rounded skill set to pull it off once or twice.

  17. Z

    Whoa, new look! This will take some getting used to. (But it’s fitting timing, since the 2013 Knicks, too, will take some time getting used to. I’m curious to see what becomes of the Bargnani experiment, and what Artest brings. But I’m still emotionally indifferent to the success of this current incarnation of the Knicks, and that doesn’t make it much fun to root for them. I hope for all your sakes that the Knicks are able to shoot “par”, and the season brings some enjoyment. But, for what seems like the 90th consecutive season now, my gut tells me the best thing that can happen this year is for the team to flounder early and often, and to be triple bogeying the course at the deadline, paving the way for a 2015 reboot with a brand new cast of characters.)

  18. flossy

    “Suffice it to say I don’t think Shumpert is going to join those ranks this year, or probably ever.”

    You saying Shump isn’t as good as the great Tyreke Evans? It’s a hard thing to do consistently if your name isn’t LeBron James, but Shump seems to have the well rounded skill set to pull it off once or twice.

    I guess if the Knicks blew it all up, played Shumpert 40 mpg and let him do whatever he wanted, then sure, maybe? I’m not sure an NBA team where Iman Shumpert is the best player/handles the ball enough to rack up 5 assists per night is one that will ever have much success.

  19. thenamestsam

    I personally wouldn’t be shocked if Shumpy has a season that puts him in the conversation with guys like Batum and Holiday, to pick some of the lesser players off that list.

    Edit feature test…Awesome. Thanks for adding this Mike and on the precipice of another season thanks for all the hard work you guys do hosting us around here.

  20. Mike Kurylo

    Woody loves the small ball, though. Cole only got 11 MPG in the preseason, no way he gets that in the regular season. I would love to see him get plenty of time behind Tyson, but I don’t think it’ll happen. Stat, Kenyon, Bargs and even Melo and Metta will probably see more time at the 5 than Cole, not that I think it makes any sense.

    Yeah but I think it takes Woody time to trust the young guys. Copeland was overlooked until Amar’e got hurt. Also I don’t know who he’s going to play at center. You can’t keep putting Tyson Chandler out there for 32+ minutes a night and expect him to be healthy come the playoffs. Kenyon Martin isn’t a good rebounder. Amar’e is even worse. And Bargnani is French-mime-comically bad.

    I think it’ll be January before Aldrich gets some real time. Woodson is going to get burned trotting out different centers before he realizes what the answer is.

  21. Hubert

    Hmm, I don’t see an edit button. Is it because I use firefox? (I can never see the grades on the game recaps either when I’m using the computer at work.)

    EDIT: Never mind! Sweet. I guess it goes away after 5 minutes.

    EDIT: any chance you guys will do something about the grades? You always post it as an image, and the image doesn’t load for me. Would be swell if, in addition to the image, you put it in the stat line, too.

  22. Hubert

    For the record, I would like a running five minute clock during which I can undo anything I say to apply to all aspects of my life.

  23. flossy

    Amar’e is a better rebounder than Kenyon Martin, for what it’s worth. By a not-insubstantial margin.

  24. chrisk06811

    I wish I was cool like Shump so I could make a video of me getting a haircut. And with my commentary on why I was doing so. And set to music. My commentary would be “my wife told me to get a haircut.” I wish I was Shumptastic

  25. Brian Cronin

    I am glad that the edit feature has a time limit. I can only imagine the shenanigans we’d get up to otherwise! :)

  26. mase

    So Its a unanimous decision, the nyets are the better team…that sux.

    I guess I’m in the minority of people who would rather see bargs stink it up on 20 ppg and have a first round exit with the possibility of rebuilding than to watch melo win another scoring title and another second round exit. Pretty pessimistic view I know. I guess that is a comment more about ownership than the team itself.

  27. Brian Cronin

    As to the polls, I think I was mostly on the optimistic side of each of the question, although I just couldn’t predict this team to go further in the playoffs this year than they did last year. Would I be shocked if they did? Of course not, but actually predicting it to happen is a whole other story.

    I am just pumped that I get to watch the Knicks instead of the Red Sox clinching the World Series!

    So Its a unanimous decision, the nyets are the better team…that sux.

    Looks like three of us said that they weren’t, so I don’t think it was a unanimous decision at all (I’ll be honest, I forget which one I went with – I know it was a really tough call either way).

  28. Hubert

    Did anyone else buy tickets months ago to see Patrick Stewart and Ian McKellan in Samuel Beckett’s Waiting for Godot at The Cort Theater, not realizing that it was opening night for the knicks? If so, um, meet me at intermission and let’s talk some Knicks.

  29. flossy

    I am glad that the edit feature has a time limit. I can only imagine the shenanigans we’d get up to otherwise! :)

    Can you believe we all predicted 54 wins last season? Amazing!

    Did anyone else buy tickets months ago to see Patrick Stewart and Ian McKellan in Samuel Beckett’s Waiting for Godot at The Cort Theater, not realizing that it was opening night for the knicks? If so, um, meet me at intermission and let’s talk some Knicks.

    I agreed to attend a charity dinner for a Holocaust memorial-related cause without consulting the Knicks schedule, and now I am annoyed (and feel like a terrible person).

  30. johnno

    Indiana Jump Straight Ups

    Did anyone else notice that, apparently, Hibbert’s jump-straight-up-ability has carried over from the playoffs to this season? Last night he had something like 14 rebounds and 7 block shots and didn’t commit a single foul.

  31. thenamestsam

    Last formatting comment I hope. When I’m typing in the comment box I’m not seeing any cursor at the moment. Makes it difficult to edit your comments, etc. Is anyone else having this problem?

  32. Mike Kurylo

    thenamestsam October 30, 2013 at 2:09 pm

    Last formatting comment I hope. When I’m typing in the comment box I’m not seeing any cursor at the moment. Makes it difficult to edit your comments, etc. Is anyone else having this problem?

    No. What browser/OS?

  33. thenamestsam

    No. What browser/OS?

    Huh. It’s back now (I tried reloading before I swear) so don’t sweat it. Thanks again Mike.

  34. massive

    I can confirm that the mobile design for the website is a lot better than it was 24 hours ago. However, there’s a problem whenever you flip the device horizontal. The font gets much bigger and the page never really expands to take advantage of the landscape view.

    Re: Shump, maybe he won’t get the 5 assists in an off ball role on a team with 3 starter quality point guards. I’m still gonna hope for 15 points, 5 boards, stellar defense, and a steal and a half. More importantly, I’ll need a .560 TS on a usage around 17 or so.

    Re: Indy, something has to give. They’re gonna kill somebody this season if the refs don’t quit it. 7 blocks and no fouls? That’s counterintuitive considering the aggressive nature necessary to block 7 shots. And I still hate their coach. He’s the Paul Pierce of coaching for me.

  35. KnickfaninNJ

    One other comment on the new website design. The old site showed the date and time of recent comments, which I found useful. The new one only shows the posters names. It would be nice to have the additional information back

  36. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    Who created all those shots for Xavier Henry last night? I am confused. How can a team win by 10 points without a shot creator?

  37. thenamestsam

    Who created all those shots for Xavier Henry last night? I am confused. How can a team win by 10 points without a shot creator?

    You don’t actually think one game should be used as indicative of anything right? You’re smarter than that.

  38. flossy

    Looks like Woodson is going Felton/Prigioni/Shumpert/Melo/Chandler for game 1, at least.

    What’s the over/under on number of different starting lineups we’ll see this season. I’m going to say 6, but take the over.

  39. flossy

    You don’t actually think one game should be used as indicative of anything right? You’re smarter than that.

    Why of course Xavier Henry will keep up a WS48 of .346 and a per of 32 this season. Consider all the WoW haterz proven wrong! QED, bitches

  40. Owen

    that was fucking bullshit.

    Noah fouled Chandler. Would have had that putback otherwise.

    Refs are cowards.

    BULLSHIT!!!!!!!!!

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