## Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Sunday, June 24, 2018

# NYT: Knicks Over Bobcats: That Was Supposed to Happen

Link to the latest article at the NY Times.

However, despite all the positives of Tuesday night’s game, it may not indicate a major surge for New York; the victory is tarnished because Charlotte is one of the league’s worst teams. Before facing the Knicks, the Bobcats had a record of 3 wins and 14 losses. Out of 30 N.B.A. teams, Charlotte ranked 26th in offensive efficency and 28th in defensive efficiency. In simpler terms, the Bobcats are bad at both scoring and defending.

There is a way to calculate the probability of one team beating another by using both team’s win percentage along with the league’s home win percentage. A more effective way to do this is by taking the team’s expected win percentage, which is based on their point differential, in lieu of their actual record….

By using these numbers, I found the odds of a New York victory to be 66.9 percent. That is, despite being a road team with a mediocre win-loss record, the Knicks were still expected to win.

## 6 comments on “NYT: Knicks Over Bobcats: That Was Supposed to Happen”

1. cgreene

Nice write up, Mike. I don’t think that anyone was over exuberant about the win. And to say that we should win that game is true but it’s not like we were winning games that we “should” during the losing streak. Nice to introduce NYTimes readers to some of the math of it all.

2. Juany8

I’m just happy that Landry isn’t shitting his pants every time he’s on the floor anymore. If Carmelo hadn’t been injured we’d probably have beaten at least the Nuggets and Suns, obviously there’s not much you can take away from the actual win, but the team is starting to play better even though Carmelo just can’t shoot right now. That’s a huge positive from where we were 2 weeks ago, with Carmelo playing the best ball of his career and us getting beaten by everyone. One positive from the whole debacle is that at least everyone is starting to take pride in their defensive effort and it’s starting to look like we might legitimately be a top 10 defense at the end of the season. Seriously if I had told you before the season we’d be good defensively most people on this board would have taken it happily. The offense will still need a point guard and for Amar’e and Fields to find their shot.

3. latke

The bottom line is one game means nothing. The Wizards, after all, beat the Thunder. Detroit has four wins, three of them against Portland, Indiana and Orlando. However, if I someone asked me, “What can the Knicks do vs. the Cats to make you more optimistic?”

I would say, move the ball, play pick and roll, find open players, take open shots when you have them, limit Carmelo post ups and have him use the attention he draws to create opportunities for others. Continue playing great defense with a focus on improving rotations out to the three point line.

All of these things happened. Sure, Shumpert and Anthony turned down a few good looks. We made the occasional poor pass, but really, we made great decisions with the ball and if anything we should have won by more. We missed several gimmes at the rim.

4. dogrufus

One thing we’ve all had to take for granted lately as Knick fans, due to the unbalanced and flawed nature of our roster, is that our swing players are playing out of position most of the time they play on the court.

Shumpert has shown flashes but he’s clearly not a natural PG right now. He can be a positive on offense when he’s finishing plays and driving to the basket, but he’s been asked to do too much and his decision-making is not there yet. Sliding him over to SG will allow him to play to his strengths. His efficiency will go way up due to him not shooting so much off the dribble and more easy opportunities set up by Davis. Look for him to flourish in this role.

As for Fields, he’s been playing out of position since we drafted him and he’s mostly suffered for it. His game is about slashing, not shooting, and being guarded by smaller players has made it tougher for him to get to the basket. And how many times have we seen him torched by the likes of Ray Allen? It’s not that Landry doesn’t try- he’s just not equipped at 6’7? 215 to chase NBA guards around screen after screen. He’s a SF, and moving him to our 6th man might just bring back the Fields we saw early last season.

I think we could potentially do some great things here, provided we have the guts to try unconventional things like playing STAT/Melo apart from each other a lot of the time.

We could have 2 primary units:
Jorts mainly, some TC
STAT
Fields mainly, some Melo
Walker mainly, some Shump
Davis

and

TC
JJ mainly, some STAT
Melo
Shump mainly, some Fields
TD mainly, some Davis

This way we capitalize on STAT’s strengths while he’s in by surrounding him with a strong playmaking PG and shooters, while Melo plays with our best defenders and a PG who’s better off the ball in the Billups role, so he can do what he does best. One run and gun open court unit and one half court grind-out unit… Is it so crazy?

5. xcat01

dogrufus, I understand the sentiment but if that is the case then the Knicks should trade Melo today. These are professionals, they have to stow their egos and learn to play together. The Heat went through this last year when they would alternate sitting LeBron and Wade so the other could be “the man”. They made their run in the playoffs when they realized that they had to think team first and not me first. Same goes for the Knicks. Stat and Melo will get it eventually as yesterday shows. Shumpert is not a NBA PG, at least not yet. BDiddy is, and when he plays he needs to be the floor general.

6. Brian Cronin (@Brian_Cronin)

I’m just happy that Landry isn’t shitting his pants every time he’s on the floor anymore. If Carmelo hadn’t been injured we’d probably have beaten at least the Nuggets and Suns, obviously there’s not much you can take away from the actual win, but the team is starting to play better even though Carmelo just can’t shoot right now. That’s a huge positive from where we were 2 weeks ago, with Carmelo playing the best ball of his career and us getting beaten by everyone. One positive from the whole debacle is that at least everyone is starting to take pride in their defensive effort and it’s starting to look like we might legitimately be a top 10 defense at the end of the season. Seriously if I had told you before the season we’d be good defensively most people on this board would have taken it happily. The offense will still need a point guard and for Amar’e and Fields to find their shot.

Totally agreed.