Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Saturday, November 1, 2014

NYT: Is Stoudemire returning to form?

Sure looks like it! My take over at Off the Dribble:

In the game last Thursday against the Celtics, with time winding down and his team’s 10-point lead nearly erased, Amar’e Stoudemire leapt up from the paint and over Kevin Garnett. With a touch both delicate and confident, Stoudemire tipped in a J.R. Smith miss to give the Knicks an 86-82 lead with just more than three minutes remaining.

The Knicks went on to beat their Atlantic Division rival, 89-86, their first win in Boston since 2006.

Stoudemire’s put-back was not the most important play of the game, but it might have been its most emblematic – the exclamation point on a vintage performance without which the Knicks most certainly would have squandered yet another late lead against the Celtics.

Commit!

37 comments on “NYT: Is Stoudemire returning to form?

  1. flossy

    Sorry to copy/paste this from the dead thread below, but it seems much more apropos here:

    Here’s a crazy statistic. After 12 games, including the first half dozen games where he, to be honest, mostly sucked ass, Amar’e is averaging 20+ points per 36, with a TS% of .606 and a usage of 24.1%.

    Obviously it’s still a small sample, but if you survey the NBA this season and filter out the garbage time all-stars (i.e. anyone who has played less than 1,000 minutes by now, at the halfway point of the season), do you know how many other players are posting a TS% of at least .606 with a usage of 24% or higher?

    Here’s the list:

    1. Kevin Durant
    2. LeBron James

    … and that’s it.

    So, yeah. I’m gonna go ahead and say that Amar’e is still an elite scorer. Remember, these are his numbers including his first few games, which were awful. And more to the point, anyone who has been watching these games should recognize that he could be so, so, SO much better with some more reps if he stays healthy.

    Aside from maybe half a dozen possessions in the post (at most), we’re not even running any plays for him! He hasn’t had our best PnR point guard on the floor with him for more than 2 games! They’ve just kind of been winging it out there, and yet 12 games in, he looks to be on a really positive trajectory.

  2. d-mar

    I think way too much is being made out of STAT fouling Korver on his 3 attempt. Obviously, it’s not the smartest thing to do, but you’re talking about a guy who basically makes every 3 he takes (esp. the short corner 3) And the fact that Amare made the effort to at least close on Korver is a positive – if he had made a halfhearted attempt people would be killing him.

    And btw that one little jump hook he made last night after a spin move was a beautiful sight to behold.

  3. JK47

    So far the lineups with Melo, Stat and Chandler have fared quite well.

    The Kidd/Smith/Melo/Stat/Chandler combo has played 48 minutes and has been extremely effective, to the tune of 1.19 O-rating, 0.95 D-rating. In terms of +/- per minute, that’s the best five-man combo the Knicks have used all season.

    The Felton/Smith/Melo/Stat/Chandler combo has only played 21 minutes, but they’ve also played well– 1.16 O-Rating, 1.05 D-Rating. Obviously these are tiny samples but so far you have to say that Melo, Stat and Chandler have not had problems playing together.

  4. Unreason

    flossy: Aside from maybe half a dozen possessions in the post (at most), we’re not even running any plays for him! He hasn’t had our best PnR point guard on the floor with him for more than 2 games! They’ve just kind of been winging it out there, and yet 12 games in, he looks to be on a really positive trajectory.

    Agree completely. I’d been a bit hypnotized by the perpetual Amare and Melo don’t mesh echo chamber. I’m starting to think the unit with Amare, Melo Chandler, JR, and Felton has a chance to be among the best in the league on offense if they keep progressing.

    The trajectory of the whole team’s execution and consistency of effort on defense has to be reversed for it to matter much IMO. I doubt Camby or Sheed’s return will do that. I’m not sure what the problem or the solution is.

  5. Unreason

    JK47 – Thinking the same thing but writing slower than you. Even though the sample is small, the numbers are helpful. The D rating with Kidd is better than I’d expect.

  6. nicos

    flossy:
    Sorry to copy/paste this from the dead thread below, but it seems much more apropos here:

    Here’s a crazy statistic. After 12 games, including the first half dozen games where he, to be honest, mostly sucked ass, Amar’e is averaging 20+ points per 36, with a TS% of .606 and a usage of 24.1%.

    Obviously it’s still a small sample, but if you survey the NBA this season and filter out the garbage time all-stars (i.e. anyone who has played less than 1,000 minutes by now, at the halfway point of the season), do you know how many other players are posting a TS% of at least .606 with a usage of 24% or higher?

    Here’s the list:

    1. Kevin Durant
    2. LeBron James

    … and that’s it.

    If you just cut out the first two games where he was running around like a chicken with his head cut off the numbers are really impressive- .649 TS% on 23.5% usage with a turnover rate of just 9.6%- that puts him about on par with Chandler last year on much higher usage (lower TS% but far lower TO rate) and his rebound rate is up to 12.5% which is still crappy but creeping up towards his career average which isn’t great but certainly acceptable especially as it looks like he’s making an effort to box out more on the defensive glass. It’s only 10 games and it’s really doubtful he’ll continue at this pace- teams are surely going to start doubling him aggressively in the post for one- but if he stays healthy and close to this productive he might actually be movable in the off-season- if you even want to move him, that is.

  7. dchang81

    The whole world including Barkley think the Knicks are “falling back to earth” for whatever reasons, be it the unsustainable 3pt% or the fact they take too many to be a “title contender”, Melo being “selfish”, etc. While the Knicks are actually all pretty much healthy except the centers… I don’t know about y’all but I’m excited for the build up to the final push before the playoffs. The team just needs time to gel and build conifidence. I just hope we can stay healthy from here on out to next season, NYKaLLDaY!

  8. mr.JayP

    The Knicks need to improve on Defense and ball moving.

    The unsustainable 3pt-ers and selfish melo play has cost us a few games. But the biggest issue is our Defense. We do not have a top tier defense anymore.

  9. Kurt

    Jim Cavan: Great article, but, as I mentioned in the previous threads, I disagree with two of your examples of Amar’e’s poor D.

    If you look at the tape carefully, the transition bucket was in large part because Novak inexplicably left Horford to cover his man Zaza, even though Zaza was being covered by someone. Granted Amar’e should have made it back a little sooner, but if Novak doesn’t leave an open big man in the paint unguarded it doesn’t look anywhere near as ugly.

    Also, as I commented earlier, I think Chandler should have just told Amar’e to go under Horford’s pick and force J Smith to shoot. Instead, he tried to hedge/trap Smith. Smith is a good passer and Chandler’s hedge didn’t keep Smith from finding a wide open Horford for the dunk. It looks really ugly at first glance but, as a number of other commentators agreed, it looks like a case of miscommunication/poor decision by Chandler to hedge rather than a millionth example of Amar’e playing the pick and roll poorly.

    Even though it’s not ideal, STAT is finding success with a soft hedge of the ball handler while staying close enough to get back to his man when Felton (or other on ball defender) recovers.

    I generally agree with your point about his D, but I don’t believe those two examples were fair.

  10. Douglas

    Unreason: The trajectory of the whole team’s execution and consistency of effort on defense has to be reversed for it to matter much IMO. I doubt Camby or Sheed’s return will do that. I’m not sure what the problem or the solution is.

    I’m going to disagree with you. The Knicks have zero depth at center; Chandler’s primary backup right now is Amar’e. He has to both play 35+ minutes a night and stay out of trouble because he is the only rim protector in the lineup. I think one of either Camby or Sheed contributing at least 10 minutes will keep him sharp. A viable backup big will help mitigate his effort issues and avoid focus mistakes like overhelping or bad hedging.

  11. jon abbey

    yeah, they’re in desperate need of a big man, still no idea why CAA hasn’t been able to get Kenyon Martin in yet.

  12. Kurt

    Douglas: good point. Also, as someone on a previous thread pointed out, Sheed is the best at D communication. If Sheed can even hit a third of his 3’s, he’d be the perfect compliment to Amar’e for 10-15 mins a game. He’d stay out behind the three point line (which he’d do no matter what anyway…). STAT would be able to work the pick and roll himself without having to make room for Chandler. He’d also be perfect at giving STAT instructions on D.

  13. ruruland

    jon abbey:
    yeah, they’re in desperate need of a big man, still no idea why CAA hasn’t been able to get Kenyon Martin in yet.

    Warkentein wants Kenyon. I get the sense he’s the only one, unfortunately.

  14. ruruland

    nicos: If you just cut out the first two games where he was running around like a chicken with his head cut off the numbers are really impressive- .649 TS% on 23.5% usage with a turnover rate of just 9.6%- that puts him about on par with Chandler last year on much higher usage (lower TS% but far lower TO rate) and his rebound rate is up to 12.5% which is still crappy but creeping up towards his career average which isn’t great but certainly acceptable especially as it looks like he’s making an effort to box out more on the defensive glass.It’s only 10 games and it’s really doubtful he’ll continue at this pace- teams are surely going to start doubling him aggressively in the post for one- but if he stays healthy and close to this productive he might actually be movable in the off-season- if you even want to move him, that is.

    Do folks realize that the Knicks are the No.1 defensive rebounding team in the league?

  15. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    jon abbey:
    yeah, they’re in desperate need of a big man, still no idea why CAA hasn’t been able to get Kenyon Martin in yet.

    Ask ruruland.

  16. Brian Cronin

    Warkentein wants Kenyon. I get the sense he’s the only one, unfortunately.

    Weird, right? That noone will touch this guy. Was the deal with Del Negro really that bad? What the heck happened?

  17. Juany8

    While it’s fair to question if the Knicks will ever get fully healthy, there’s no doubt that they’re missing a lot of key pieces right now. Amar’e and Shump are still on minute limites, Felton has been back 2 games after missing a month, Brewer is basically worthless and I am almost certain it has something to do with an injury, Sheed and Camby are both gone, leaving the Knicks without much in the way of backup big men, and Thomas looks done. Chandler was clearly being bothered by his neck, his D looked particularly terrible yesterday and he got a whole 2 points and 3 rebounds. Kidd only played 5 minutes yesterday and has already missed some games earlier in the season.

    This team is not remotely close to healthy, but people need to validate their early season predictions that the Knicks would be mediocre so they’re piling on while everyone is injured. Should be interesting going forward.

  18. flossy

    Brian Cronin: Weird, right? That noone will touch this guy. Was the deal with Del Negro really that bad? What the heck happened?

    1/3 of our roster consists of former teammates of K-Mart’s (Melo, Camby, JR, Jason Kidd) and some of them (well, Melo) have a lot of pull with the front office, and Kidd clearly gets a lot of respect from Woodson.

    I think if those guys wanted K-Mart on the team, he’d be here by now, regardless of whatever went down between him and Del Negro. The fact that they Knicks would rather keep scrubs like White, Brewer and Copeland and Kurt Thomas (sorry, Kurt) on the roster while our two viable back-up bigs nurse injuries… should tell you all you need to know about K-Mart at this point.

  19. Owen

    I have noticed it….

    Sometimes methinks Tyson doesn’t quite get the credit he deserves on that front…

    nicos: Charles Barkley sure doesn’t.

  20. Unreason

    Douglas: I’m going to disagree with you. The Knicks have zero depth at center; Chandler’s primary backup right now is Amar’e. He has to both play 35+ minutes a night and stay out of trouble because he is the only rim protector in the lineup. I think one of either Camby or Sheed contributing at least 10 minutes will keep him sharp. A viable backup big will help mitigate his effort issues and avoid focus mistakes like overhelping or bad hedging.

    Well I’m going to agree with you and clarify that I didn’t think their return would be enough to reverse the trajectory, not that it wouldn’t help at all. I could be wrong, of course, but the effort on that end has seemed intermittent over the last several weeks. At the beginning of the season it seemed consistent and relentless and wonderful. I’m not referring to Chandler specifically, but to the team as a whole. I suspect Melo’s minutes are as big an issue for the sustained intensity of the Knicks’ defense as Chandler’s.

  21. Owen

    Go to B-Ref….

    Find Summary in middle of page….

    Go down to miscellaneous, halfway down page…..

    then sort column by dreb…..

    There seems to be a discrepancy between the numbers here on KB and their numbers…..

  22. jon abbey

    Owen:
    I have noticed it….

    Sometimes methinks Tyson doesn’t quite get the credit he deserves on that front…

    he’s an All-Star who is 23rd in the league in defensive rebound percentage without a real power forward to cut into his rebounds. if anything, he gets too much credit on that front.

  23. ruruland

    Like I was saying: “J.R. Smith has shot 43% from the 3-pt line when he does so w/o dribbling. When he dribbles once or more: 8.3%.” Chris Herring (who, along with Iannazzonne do a fine job)

  24. Unreason

    One of the many reasons I like Steph Curry a lot: His take on why the Warriors are for real and how they’ve managed to be the 10th best defensive team with Bogut out and a couple of rooks getting lots of pt and David Lee. “When you have 5 guys in unison on the court helpin’ each other, rotatin’ the right way, talkin’, givin’ you know multiple efforts, your defense is gonna show up every single night. So we just try to lay our hat on that. We’ve tried to outscore people. It’s an exciting brand of basketball, but it doesn’t promote consistency and wins so in trying to get where we want to go which is obviously the playoffs we have to come up on the defensive end with a lot of stops.”

  25. jon abbey

    ruruland:
    Like I was saying: “J.R. Smith has shot 43% from the 3-pt line when he does so w/o dribbling. When he dribbles once or more: 8.3%.” Chris Herring (who, along with Iannazzonne do a fine job)

    and that’s not even counting all of those awful multiple dribble 22 footers one step inside the line, worst shot in basketball.

  26. johnno

    Robtachi: Where’d you see that? Their Defensive Rebound Rate is currently 6th.

    According to the team stats on espn.com, the Knicks’ defensive rebounding rate of .752 is tops in the league. They are the only team in the league that gives up an average of fewer than 10 offensive rebounds a game. They’ve actually done a good job rebounding overall over the last 15 games or so (They have a + differential over that span) and are slowly creeping up the rebounding stat list. Earlier in the year, they were averaging -4.1 rebounds compared to their opponents.

  27. johnno

    I hit “submit” too soon. They are now “up” to -2.1 rebound differential for the year, which ranks 21st in the league. A month ago, they were 28th.

  28. Frank

    So apparently Woodson said that the reason the defense has sucked is because they haven’t practiced– hey Woody, didn’t you guys just have a stretch of one game in 7 days? How much more practice do you want?

    I continue to think that this is partially communication/practice/injuries, but that a major part of this is just plain old effort. When Tyson comes to play, the whole defense looks good. When he’s giving anything less than 95-100%, it looks bad.

    The other possibility is that the defense really has gotten worse the less Ronnie Brewer (and Rasheed) has played. It sure didn’t look like he was doing anything that special on defense, but maybe he was.

  29. Eternal OptiKnist

    ruruland: Do folks realize that the Knicks are the No.1 defensive rebounding team in the league?

    is there any possiblity that the improvement in rebounding correlates to dip in rebounding…do you sacrifice some rim protection because you focus on boxing out for a rebound vs rotating to help at the rim?

  30. Eternal OptiKnist

    Eternal OptiKnist: is there any possiblity that the improvement in rebounding correlates to dip in rebounding…do you sacrifice some rim protection because you focus on boxing out for a rebound vs rotating to help at the rim?

    I’m sorry…apparently, i am an idiot…what i meant to say was “is there any possiblity that the improvement in rebounding correlates to dip in DEFENSE”. My bad. I do believe this is the first time i’ve quoted myself.

  31. yellowboy90

    Frank:
    So apparently Woodson said that the reason the defense has sucked is because they haven’t practiced– hey Woody, didn’t you guys just have a stretch of one game in 7 days? How much more practice do you want?

    I continue to think that this is partially communication/practice/injuries, but that a major part of this is just plain old effort. When Tyson comes to play, the whole defense looks good. When he’s giving anything less than 95-100%, it looks bad.

    The other possibility is that the defense really has gotten worse the less Ronnie Brewer (and Rasheed) has played.It sure didn’t look like he was doing anything that special on defense, but maybe he was.

    How much do all the players really practice in 5 on 5 settings? Also, he could mean with all the different lineups it hard to create a cohesive unit. IDK. I think it’s actually some coaching issues like doubling the post.

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