Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Thursday, July 24, 2014

New York Times: Knicks Idling, Waiting for Baron

From the NYT’s Off the Dribble NBA blog

Perhaps more than any other N.B.A. team, the Knicks have fostered a reputation for laying franchise fortune at the feet of superstars either in the midst of – or well past – their primes: Bob McAdoo, Spencer Haywood, Stephon Marbury, Steve Francis, Amar’e Stoudemire, Carmelo Anthony and, most recently, Tyson Chandler.

Now, with their front court troika all nearing 30, the suddenly floundering Knicks find themselves waiting on one of the most mystifying of Garden Godots in memory.


Read the full story here. Or don’t. Just don’t send me hate mail.

108 comments on “New York Times: Knicks Idling, Waiting for Baron

  1. Juany8

    Even if Baron doesn’t totally pan out, we really don’t need fantastic guard play to make this team relevant. We just need strong defenders capable of shooting and passing quickly, and someone capable of pushing the pace and running a pick and roll. I know we all wish we had Felton now, but 2 years ago he was considered a stopgap, barely above mid level player who we signed to fill a hole. Guards like Courtney Lee or Luke Ridnour would make a pretty big difference on this team, since they would allow Fields, Shump, and Douglas to fill their natural roles from the bench as well.

  2. Ben R

    Owen:
    Yep nice work.

    Anyone excited for the Nugs this Saturday? Here is the Gallinari/Carmelo B-reference comparison…

    http://bkref.com/tiny/1wPRL

    This is going to get me crucified but I prefer the Gallo line to the Melo one. Gallo is having a great season even though is struggling from 3. If he starts hitting those 3′s look out because he is over 60% TS% without his 3′s going down.

  3. Nick C.

    I think the huge TO and PF discrepancy is what brings the WS/48 to even. I thought it was ironic Melo is shooting 3s at a better clip though both are under 35%.

  4. Bruno Almeida

    Ben R: This is going to get me crucified but I prefer the Gallo line to the Melo one. Gallo is having a great season even though is struggling from 3. If he starts hitting those 3?s look out because he is over 60% TS% without his 3?s going down.

    I don’t know, Gallo looks good, but if he had an usage rate similar to Melo his percentages would likely be way down too… and I suspect even lower than Carmelo’s, because he struggles a lot to create his own shot.

    that said, I’m glad to see Gallinari playing well, always loved him as a Knick and he’s still one of my favorite players.

  5. Owen

    Gallinari is also making 3.3 million per while putting up those similar looking statistics. That’s really the point. Obviously, they have different roles but it’s kind of a scary comparison for a Knicks fan. Gallo really seems to be developing into the player they thought he could be here in NY, if not a high usage “star” of Melo’s magnitude.

    Pretty amazing but the Nuggets were 32-25 before the Melo’Billups trade and 26-12 since. Their offense in particular doesn’t seem to miss all the attention he drew….

    Is it too late to reverse that trade?

  6. Eazy B

    I’m always afraid of being a dellusional homer, but is it so out-of-touch to have some optimism about the Knicks? Considering our much-improved defensive efficiency from last year (high 20s last year vs. #11 at the time of this post) and that we have two of the most talented offensive forwards in the league, isn’t it reasonable to expect that our offensive efficiency will improve? Even last year, I believe the post-Melo Knicks rocked a higher offensive efficiency than the pre-Melo version.

    This isn’t to say that the Knicks offense is terrible now, but based on last year’s pre/post-Melo data (head) and the fact that we netted an offensive superstar (heart), it seems more sound to conclude that the offense will improve rather than stay the same or get worse (if that’s even possible). For some reason, it seems people on this blog hate when patience is preached, but much as the first 10 games of the 2011 Knicks led to proclamations of doom and gloom, I think the rampant anxiety may be without warrant.

    I hope.

  7. Brian Cronin (@Brian_Cronin)

    Gallo really seems to be developing into the player they thought he could be here in NY, if not a high usage “star” of Melo’s magnitude.

    While obviously I thought that the trade was bad, I think that there’s no way that Gallo would have developed into the player he’s become in Denver had he stayed here, where D’Antoni insisted that he be A. a scorer B. a scorer C. a scorer D. a scorer and E. maybe play a little defense.

  8. Owen

    Not sure if that is a knock on Gallo or on D’Antoni. Either way, he is doing some really good things so far this season. Obviously, I didn’t like the trade either but I like it even less if Gallo blows through the expectations we had developed of him, something that fourth year players are known to do pretty frequently….

  9. Garson

    Deron for Melo is the simple solution

    Nets do it to get a locked in “superstar” for their new arena and sell tickets

    Knicks do it to get an actual superstar… not just one in name. By trading for Deron, it would actually be like trading for Deron and the pre melo Amare.

    Best part is, melo cant bitch as he used the nets for leverage on the knick trade by not saying that he wouldnt sign in jersey.

  10. d-mar

    How does a thread that starts out with an excellent piece by Jim about the Baron Davis situation turn into (once again) the same old “those ex-Knicks are sure good, darn, I wish we could unwind the Melo deal”?

    Can we please move on folks?

  11. ess-dog

    If Baron doesn’t bring Stat back from the crypt, then nothing short of Nash will. How he will mesh with Melo, Chandler, Fields etc. is also to be determined, but Stat’s offense is so reliant on good ball placement…
    Hopefully Fields will benefit from Baron as well, although we’ll probably start Baron/Shump in the back-court.
    The lack of 3 pt shooting is disconcerting but if we could just defend the three better, it wouldn’t be such an issue.
    Can you imagine if we hadn’t lucked into Baron? We would be royally fucked right now. A borderline playoff team.

  12. The Infamous Cdiggy

    d-mar:
    How does a thread that starts out with an excellent piece by Jim about the Baron Davis situation turn into (once again) the same old “those ex-Knicks are sure good, darn, I wish we could unwind the Melo deal”?

    Can we please move on folks?

    Co-sign, d-mar. I understand that it can be unsettling to have to rely (more than we thought we would) so much on one player with many questions. But as Jim’s article points out, we don’t need Baron to be a star (21pt/9ast per game), just a very competent point who sets up the offense, sets up spacing, and get the ball to his teammates where they have the best to score. For some it’s hard to think that he’ll do all of that well; I believe he will. Is 15.5ppg/7.5apg too much to ask? (overly simplified stat examples but just to make a base point)

  13. stratomatic

    I would take Gallo over Melo at their current salaries without hesitation. I might even take Gallo even up.

    The idea that Gallo would have to up his usage to Melo’s
    level in order to draw a valid comparison is flawed. Gallo need only do what he’s doing now and the “rest of team” split Melo’s extra possessions at anywhere near Melo’s TS% for Gallo to be more valuable. As a group they could even do slightly worse than average and still beat Melo.

    Melo may be the more talented overall offensive player capable of scoring at a decent efficiency in more ways, but Gallo is better at several things (3s, FTs, scoring on the break) and focuses almost entirely on those things. Melo does nothing exceptionally well except get to the FT line but you have to put up with 3.5 TOs and a half dozen bad shots a game to get those FTs.

    Melo has also historically been a better play maker and rebounder, but the gap is not huge because Gallo is passing better. Gallo’s defense has also improved since his days as a Knick.

    When you add in age, upside, and salary, IMO it’s a no brainer.

  14. Bruno Almeida

    what really kills us is that, with Melo’s and Amare’s huge contracts, we have no cap space for the foreseeable future…

    otherwise, we could sit tight like Oklahoma City did, and pick up players that other teams had no space for, and build a respectable cast of role players… Eric Maynor, Thabo Sefolosha or Daequan Cook would all be pretty decent contributors for us, and they got them for nothing in salary dump trades…

    but I’m optimistic about Baron, he’s a great passer and that’s what we need, even if we’ll have to endure at least one more month of lousy basketball until we get him.

  15. Bruno Almeida

    stratomatic:
    I would take Gallo over Melo at their current salaries without hesitation. I might even take Gallo even up.

    The idea that Gallo would have to up his usage to Melo’s
    level in order to draw a valid comparison is flawed. Gallo need only do what he’s doing now and the “rest of team” split Melo’s extra possessions at anywhere near Melo’s TS% for Gallo to be more valuable. As a group they could even do slightly worse than average and still beat Melo.

    Melo may be the more talented overall offensive player capable of scoring at a decent efficiency in more ways, but Gallo is better at several things (3s, FTs, scoring on the break) and focuses almost entirely on those things. Melo does nothing exceptionally well except get to the FT line but you have to put up with 3.5 TOs and a half dozen bad shots a game to get those FTs.

    Melo has also historically been a better play maker and rebounder, but the gap is not huge because Gallo is passing better. Gallo’s defense has also improved since his days as a Knick.

    When you add in age, upside, and salary, IMO it’s a no brainer.

    do you really think that splitting Melo’s extra possessions to Fields, TD, and this version of Amare would have the same effect as having Melo take those shots? when none of them even crack .50 TS%?

  16. stratomatic

    d-mar:
    How does a thread that starts out with an excellent piece by Jim about the Baron Davis situation turn into (once again) the same old “those ex-Knicks are sure good, darn, I wish we could unwind the Melo deal”?

    Can we please move on folks?

    If the goal is to turn this into a championship team, we must first come to grips with the fact that we have two slightly above average players making max salaries and one of them is playing like crap (Amare).

    When you net out all of Melo’s pluses and minuses, the sad reality is that is that he’s not very good. He’s scores a lot of points, but not very efficiently and you have to deal with the TOs, dumb fouls, bad shots, and inconsistent defense.

    For all his warts on defense and on the boards, Amare was at least an extremely efficient high usage scorer with Nash.

    I said this at the time of the trade and I still believe this. It will be virtually impossible to build a championship caliber team with Amare and Melo. We have two max salaries tied up in two non max players.

    One or preferably both have to be traded.

    Right now the team has one highly productive player (Chandler). After that it’s a gutted mess other than Harrelson being a surprise off the bench and Shumpert being a good defender with the athletic ability to become good on the offensive end if he shoots better and becomes a better decision maker.

    I was a huge Fields fan last year, but he looks like a deer in a headlight right now.

    I was comfortable with TD off the bench, but he’s playing poorly this year.

    It’s a freaking mess. We are lucky to be 6-7. We had a very easy schedule so far and several teams we played either had a key injury or were on a tough B2B. Otherwise, we are playing more like a 30-35 win team.

  17. Brian Cronin (@Brian_Cronin)

    Melo is having a very good season this year. Melo, in and of himself, is certainly not the problem with the Knicks. Poor roster construction is their problem. That obviously is tied to the acquisition of Melo, but it is not his fault (and I certainly don’t think it is fair to blame him for choosing to get the most money possible – lord knows most us would in the same situation). He’s having a very good year. He and Chandler are really the only two Knicks having very good seasons (Shump is doing well, but I don’t think any of us would deem his season “very good” as of yet).

  18. Bruno Almeida

    Brian Cronin (@Brian_Cronin):
    Melo is having a very good season this year. Melo, in and of himself, is certainly not the problem with the Knicks. Poor roster construction is their problem.

    exactly.

    can’t blame Melo when 4 guys that were supposed to be at least average contributors have, respectively, .49, .48, .44 and .40 TS% (Amare, Fields, Shumpert and Douglas), and Douglas even has a negative WS/48 so far…

  19. stratomatic

    Bruno Almeida: do you really think that splitting Melo’s extra possessions to Fields, TD,and this version of Amare would have the same effect as having Melo take those shots? when none of them even crack .50 TS%?

    Probably not, but that’s not the comparison I would make.

    Just because the Knicks were also gutted in the trade doesn’t mean Melo is a lot better than Gallo. If Gallo was on a team with other decent players in NY it would be different.

    There’s a reason Denver’s offense is at the top of the league despite replacing Melo with Gallo and NY’s offense has fallen off a cliff with Melo.

    Melo’s shots in Denver were replaced by more efficient shots from Gallo plus efficient scoring from other players in Denver while Gallo and Amare’s efficient shots from early last year were replaced by bad shots from Melo (plus sub par play from other players).

    Even last year when the Knicks offense very good with Melo, that was mostly because Billups’s TS% was in the neighborhood of 60% which was a big improvement over Felton’s low 50s. But as usual, all the credit was given to Melo because he scores more points.

  20. stratomatic

    Brian Cronin (@Brian_Cronin):
    Melo is having a very good season this year. Melo, in and of himself, is certainly not the problem with the Knicks. Poor roster construction is their problem. That obviously is tied to the acquisition of Melo, but it is not his fault (and I certainly don’t think it is fair to blame him for choosing to get the most money possible – lord knows most us would in the same situation). He’s having a very good year. He and Chandler are really the only two Knicks having very good seasons (Shump is doing well, but I don’t think any of us would deem his season “very good” as of yet).

    If by good year you mean Melo is an above average player that is contributing positively, I agree.

    If by good year you mean Melo is earning his max contract, I couldn’t disagree any more. IMO, on a value basis, he has been a disaster when you net out all the pluses and minuses of his play.

    To me, the only thing that matters is value because you can’t construct a good team when you have above average players getting paid like superstars.

  21. Frank O.

    What I find most amusing is the general grumpiness of many posters here when the Knicks are playing poorly. lol
    I had to take a break from the Knicks after the loss to the Thunder, which was expected, but nonetheless troubling.
    Stat’s play really shows how much he depends on a guard getting him the ball in the proper place. It took a bit, but once Felton figured things out a bit, Stat was a monster.
    But with no one feeding him effectively, he’s pretty bad. He took the blame for the loss because of foul trouble, but his play lately begs the question: did his foul troubles actually help the team?
    Our guard play is causing grave problems. Davis could be the savior; he also could worsen things. I can’t think about that, tho.

  22. Bruno Almeida

    @24

    What I was trying to say was that if you put Gallinari in Carmelo’s place on this specific New York team, we wouldn’t be any better, and would probably be worse.

    that said, I do agree with you that at their current salaries, I would definitely take Gallo over Melo, but I don’t think it’s Carmelo’s fault that the Knicks are bad, the problem is how the roster was constructed around 2 max players that don’t really play like max players.

    that’s why I keep thinking that trading Amare would be our best option, but since nobody in the league would give us anywhere near his value, we just have to hope D’Antoni figures it out once Baron is healthy.

  23. Ben R

    Is anyone else concerned that Melo and Davis won’t mesh. Melo has never played with a ball dominating assertive PG and Baron has never not been a ball dominating assertive PG. Both Melo and Davis like to have the ball in their hands so they can create the offense. Melo mainly for himself, Davis for himself and others. When Melo played with Iverson they weren’t creating for each other as much as taking turns.

    The handful of times our guards have passed to Melo on the move he seems annoyed, like don’t create for me, wait till i’m set and I’ll create for my self.

    I am just curious to see if Melo is willing to hand over the keys to the offense and rely on a PG to get him shots.

  24. Frank O.

    BTW, my concern, expressed early in the season, about injuries appears to be coming true. Lots and lots of guys with dings. This could be a problem for the Knicks all year.
    They’re not as young as they used to be.

  25. JK47

    Melo has a .186 WS/48 so far. That’s way better than “slightly above average.” His WS/48 numbers are higher than an awful lot of players who are considered “stars” in this league.

    I get that some of you people hated the Melo trade, but Melo is one of approximately two players on this team who have been worth a damn all season.

  26. nicos

    Just did a synergy comp between Melo and Gallo- Melo actually rates out better than Gallo defensively with the huge caveat that synergy doesn’t track Melo’s lazy rotations. Gallo is fantastic on D in iso’s- number 8 in the league! The problem is he’s pretty poor everywhere else (his overall rating is 217 to Melo’s 175). I always thought he was pretty good on the ball when he was here but a poor team defender- pretty much like Melo- and it looks like the numbers suggest not much has changed. For the record, Melo also rates very good in iso defense- 16th in league. Offensively, Gallo is solidly better in points per possession- 1.06 to .93 but in Melo’s case a couple of numbers jump out- He leads the league in ppp as the pick and roll ballhandler (!), is second in post-ups (!), and a solid 19th in spot-ups. No surprise, his numbers are dragged down by his inefficiency in iso’s which aren’t terrible but count for such a high percentage of his offense drag everything else down. So, no surprise, the numbers suggest that if you could just cut down his iso’s he’d be as efficient a scorer as there is in the league.

  27. Brian Cronin (@Brian_Cronin)

    There’s a reason Denver’s offense is at the top of the league despite replacing Melo with Gallo and NY’s offense has fallen off a cliff with Melo.

    Not for nothing, but Denver’s offense did get worse last season after Melo left (just slightly, but still). They were 1st in the league before and after the trade. This year, though, they’re currently 6th.

  28. stratomatic

    Frank O.:
    What I find most amusing is the general grumpiness of many posters here when the Knicks are playing poorly. lol

    I can only speak for myself, but I’ve been grumpy since the Melo trade because I thought it was a debacle. Mentally, I’ve practically been in 2015 rebuild mode since then. If I saw some reason to believe my initial analysis was wrong (like Melo’s TS% rising to close to 60% under D’Antoni and Melo and Amare seemingly fitting well together), I would be joyous. In fact, I love the addition of Chandler and am optimistic about both our draft picks this year. But despite that I still think it’s a mess. Best case is a 50 win team (82 game season) that gets KO’d in the first or second round of the playoffs until we rebuild. It would take miracle level drafting or a major trade to change my view.

  29. Brian Cronin (@Brian_Cronin)

    Melo has a .186 WS/48 so far. That’s way better than “slightly above average.” His WS/48 numbers are higher than an awful lot of players who are considered “stars” in this league.

    I get that some of you people hated the Melo trade, but Melo is one of approximately two players on this team who have been worth a damn all season.

    Yes, agreed. You can’t knock the season Melo is having. You can knock what having Melo have his season is doing to the rest of the team, but in and of himself, he’s having a very good season.

  30. Brian Cronin (@Brian_Cronin)

    Offensively, Gallo is solidly better in points per possession- 1.06 to .93 but in Melo’s case a couple of numbers jump out- He leads the league in ppp as the pick and roll ballhandler (!), is second in post-ups (!), and a solid 19th in spot-ups. No surprise, his numbers are dragged down by his inefficiency in iso’s which aren’t terrible but count for such a high percentage of his offense drag everything else down. So, no surprise, the numbers suggest that if you could just cut down his iso’s he’d be as efficient a scorer as there is in the league.

    Yeah, Frank posted the numbers earlier in the year and it continues to frustrate me that what he posted then is exactly what you’re posting now – isos are bad for the rest of the team and isos are bad for Melo himself. The solution, therefore, seems so painfully obvious that the fact that it doesn’t happen is, well, you know, painful.

  31. stratomatic

    Just to get back on topic, IMO Davis is NOT going to make the Knicks a very good team. IMO Davis has never been a highly productive player in his career. He’s not a good shooter. He’ll make the Knicks better than they are with either Douglas or Shumpert running the point, but that’s only because neither of them is a true PG and neither is shooting well at all. So it will be like going from negative to neutral.

  32. latke

    Bruno Almeida: do you really think that splitting Melo’s extra possessions to Fields, TD,and this version of Amare would have the same effect as having Melo take those shots? when none of them even crack .50 TS%?

    I think the idea is you split the difference. Gallo takes half as many shots as Anthony at the same percentage (maybe even higher since the Knicks have more of a goto scorer in Stoudemire and could still have Felton), Stoudemire is much better than now, and then Fields, Shumpert, Felton, etc. can all be pretty bad.

    Anthony’s TS% right now is .544. That means if Gallo takes half those shots, and his TS% is .602, the other half of Anthony’s shots just need to be taken at a TS% of .486, which is pretty damn awful (the equivalent of shooting about 32% from three). Yeah, Fields and Douglas have been worse than awful so far, but you’d think they would move up from terrible to bad over the course of a season played in a system they have had success in.

    Ben R: Melo has never played with a ball dominating assertive PG and Baron has never not been a ball dominating assertive PG.

    Melo did play with Iverson for a season and a half. In their full season together, Melo managed to sustain a USG% of 30.2%, while Iverson was at 26.7%. The rest of the nuggets starters had really low usage rates: Martin (17.4%), Camby (13%), and Anthony Carter (13.8%).

    Melo was neither worse nor better than previous seasons, and the Nuggets won 51 games. It seems Melo will be Melo no matter who he plays with.

  33. JK47

    Well, at least we got one thing out of the Melo trade: a scapegoat for all of the team’s problems. It is clearly the fault of Melo and iso-ball that our guards 3-point shooting percentages look like this:

    Douglas .236
    Fields .214
    Shumpert .281
    Walker .306

    Toney Douglas and Landry Fields have crashed and burned. That’s why we’re bad.

  34. bobneptune

    Brian Cronin (@Brian_Cronin):
    Melo is having a very good season this year. Melo, in and of himself, is certainly not the problem with the Knicks. Poor roster construction is their problem. That obviously is tied to the acquisition of Melo, but it is not his fault (and I certainly don’t think it is fair to blame him for choosing to get the most money possible – lord knows most us would in the same situation).

    Brian,

    I think this is where the disagreement is. i personally love melo as a player even with his obvious flaws. i understand he wanted “his” money. but that is the difference between melo and lebron and wade. they are making 3 million less this year than melo. they bit the bullet for the chance to fit 3 top players together.

    melo , on the other hand, insisted on “his” money. not only that , he insisted on forcing a trade that made the knicks trade off every asset the knicks had of possible value. that essentially forced the knicks into the panic move of giving a guy who scores 11 points per game 58.5 million bucks!

    if melo wanted to come to ny with a smidgen of a shot of winning big, all he had to do was sit chilly and signed as a fa in the off season. that would have left the knicks with gallo, w.chandler, mosgov, randolph, felton, the 2014 first rounder and 2, 2013 second rounders to swap for cp3 or howard or whomever.

    so, it is melo’s greed (and jimmy d’s need to raise ticket prices 50%) that is at fault.

  35. bobneptune

    wait a minute brian…. i also failed to list as a part of melo getting “his” money, the nuggets have the option to swap #1 picks with the knicks in 2016 for christ’s sake.

    truly, the gift that keeps on giving!!!

  36. Bruno Almeida

    @37

    thanks Latke, but i’m not sure Fields and Douglas lack of production is due to the system we play on…

    Douglas has been getting open looks all the time, he just can’t hit the shots… it’s probably much more a confidence thing than the systems’ fault.

    in the last few games, both he and Fields had many open opportunities and they either passed or missed the shots… Douglas was even able to drive to the basket a couple of times against Orlando because he was so incredibly wide open and nobody bothered to cover him.

    they will eventually be better (they are, after all, professional basketball players), but I don’t think they would necessarily be shooting better without Melo on the team.

  37. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    bobneptune:
    melo , on the other hand, insisted on “his” money. not only that , he insisted on forcing a trade that made the knicks trade off every asset the knicks had of possible value. that essentially forced the knicks into the panic move of giving a guy who scores 11 points per game 58.5 million bucks!

    Dude, are you actually knocking the Chandler signing because he “only scores” 11 points per game?

    Can you read the advanced stats section of this blog before posting again? Please?

    Tyson Chander’s is scoring 10.1 ppg this season. Must have been a panic move to throw all that money at him, yeah?

    WRONG. WRONG. WRONG. WRONG WRONG WRONG. YOU COULDN’T BE MORE WRONG IF YOU TRIED.

    Dude’s Ortg is 142. TOPS IN THE LEAGUE. His .779 TS% would OBLITERATE the league record. We’re talking the kind of efficiency that has NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE EVER.

    You know who’s second? Ray Allen with a .686 TS%. Do you understand how HUGE that gap is?

    SIXTH in the league in Offensive Rebound Pct.

    ELEVENTH in free throws attempted, despite playing only 33 mpg.

  38. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    daJudge:
    Can anyone explain why NY was a 4.5 point favorite over Orlando?

    You’d think Vegas would know better. Was Orlando on the road, last game of a back-to-back-to-back?

  39. Eternal OptiKnist

    Sheesh….i was hoping my Jedi mind trick of convincing ourselves that Baron did not exist would catch on. All I’m trying to do is save the organization and you fans the potential monumental embarassment of having to hear: “HAHAHAHAHAHA!!! Did you really think Baron Davis was going to save your team???? HAHAHAHA!!!!” Please….stop talking about him…stop depending on him…pretend he doesn’t exist, i implore you all. If he’s gravy, he’s gravy…it just makes me cringe to hear our hopes attached to this guy. We’re better than that…not the team…us, i mean.

  40. Brian Cronin (@Brian_Cronin)

    if melo wanted to come to ny with a smidgen of a shot of winning big, all he had to do was sit chilly and signed as a fa in the off season. that would have left the knicks with gallo, w.chandler, mosgov, randolph, felton, the 2014 first rounder and 2, 2013 second rounders to swap for cp3 or howard or whomever.

    so, it is melo’s greed (and jimmy d’s need to raise ticket prices 50%) that is at fault.

    Melo had no idea what the free agent rules were going to be before the trade. They could easily have lowered the max salary, in which case he’d be leaving millions and millions on the table.

    Lebron and Bosh ended up each giving up roughly $10 million over the life time of their contracts (roughly $2 million a year), and of that $10 million, who knows how much of that is “made up” by Florida’s lack of personal income tax – certainly a considerable portion (their maximum salary was lower than Melo’s maximum salary because he signed a full extension with the Nuggets – had he become a free agent at the same time of them, his maximum salary would have been the same as them).

  41. daJudge

    Is there any way that I can get decent advanced stats re: Bernard King and Melo? I would like to see these stats, but honestly I do not know how to access same. I would also be looking to compare Sugar Ray Richardson and Shump, rookie year and Larry Johnson and Stat. I will do the work if someone simply points me in the right direction. Thanks. Also, I know most of you folks deplore the eye test, but based on that very test, I agree with CJ above regarding Chandler, who is a flat out stud. Apparently statistically as well. On a positive note, I think JJ is a decent back up for Chandler from a bench POV. Balkman would be too. What the hell did he do to keep his butt glued? If poor shooting is the criteria, our whole team should be benched. One more thought, what about a starting line up of Chandler, Jorts, Amare (at the 3), Melo (2) and BD? Mock away.

  42. BigBlueAL

    daJudge:
    Is there any way that I can get decent advanced stats re: Bernard King and Melo?I would like to see these stats, but honestly I do not know how to access same.I would also be looking to compare Sugar Ray Richardson and Shump, rookie year and Larry Johnson and Stat.I will do the work if someone simply points me in the right direction. Thanks. Also, I know most of you folks deplore the eye test, but based on that very test, I agree with CJ above regarding Chandler, who is a flat out stud.Apparently statistically as well.On a positive note, I think JJ is a decent back up for Chandler from a bench POV.Balkman would be too. What the hell did he do to keep his butt glued?If poor shooting is the criteria, our whole team should be benched.One more thought, what about a starting line up of Chandler, Jorts, Amare (at the 3), Melo (2) and BD?Mock away.

    Basketball-reference.com has basic advanced stats for every player.

  43. nicos

    The Honorable Cock Jowles: Dude, are you actually knocking the Chandler signing because he “only scores” 11 points per game?

    Can you read the advanced stats section of this blog before posting again? Please?

    Tyson Chander’s is scoring 10.1 ppg this season. Must have been a panic move to throw all that money at him, yeah?

    WRONG. WRONG. WRONG. WRONG WRONG WRONG. YOU COULDN’T BE MORE WRONG IF YOU TRIED.

    Dude’s Ortg is 142. TOPS IN THE LEAGUE. His .779 TS% would OBLITERATE the league record. We’re talking the kind of efficiency that has NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE EVER.

    You know who’s second? Ray Allen with a .686 TS%. Do you understand how HUGE that gap is?

    SIXTH in the league in Offensive Rebound Pct.

    ELEVENTH in free throws attempted, despite playing only 33 mpg.

    I’d agree that he’s well worth his contract but those offensive numbers do come with a big asterisk attached. The guy has only attempted one shot outside the paint all year, ONE SHOT!- he’s perhaps the most monomaniacal offensive player I’ve ever seen. The problem there is that no defender needs to follow him outside the paint. This probably helps mid-range guys- Dirk last year and Melo this year- as Chandler’s man is less likely to help away from the basket for fear of the lob over the top. Unfortunately, it also cuts off driving lanes because Chandler’s man is always available to rotate into the paint and the driver can’t kick it out to a wide open Chandler because he won’t shoot it (and he’s a turnover machine to boot). His usage is also at a career low, mainly because Melo is the only thing even resembling a playmaker on the team. He’s still a huge net positive but even if he continues to put up these numbers, his historic, record obliterating, offensive season has less net value than average seasons by top-tier offensive players like Ray…

  44. cgreene

    I am really into the idea of making Stat the 6th man. Bring him off the bench for Chandler, let him play center with Jorts at PF (who can guard the center if needed) and stretch the floor. Would really open things up for him I think and change the dynamic and flow of the offense. Even open to the idea of bringing Stat and Baron off the bench together. Would Stat go for it? Does MDA have the stones to try? I brought this up a couple weeks ago. Hahn talks about it in his blog today. Thoughts?

  45. daJudge

    Yes, I found it BBA. Thanks. Quickly, I found that both players, as I expected have similar numbers, I think. Bernard: PER 19.2, efg .52, TS .56, Ass. 16, WS .123, usage 27.8……Melo, PER 20.4, efg .48, TS .55, Ass % 15.8, WS .128 and usage 31.3. Also, rebounds about 6.2 each. I haven’t weeded out the peak years, late years for B and pre injury/post injury. But I really think they are at least comparable on many levels. On defense, B was good pre-injury, not so much post.

  46. BigBlueAL

    The Melo post-up numbers are interesting. If he posted up and got the ball in a normal post-up area I would do it on every possession no problem. Hell sometimes he gets such great position its an automatic trip to the FT line or layup. Its the high-post, give it to him 20 ft from the basket clear-outs that are the problem.

  47. danvt

    “Instead, think of Davis as a binding agent; the final, leavening ingredient in a recipe gone years without one, on a team ready to rise. If Davis can be that catalyst, there’s no telling how much closer the Knicks might get to finally feeding their nearly 40-year title-starved fans.”

    Great analysis.

  48. BigBlueAL

    On Baron Davis, I think you can over-exxagerate his potential impact but also underestimate it. Wait what the hell did I just say?? lol

    He wont be the Golden St version but he certainly doesnt have to be. The current guards, specifically PG’s, are playing so bad that just having a decent/average PG would be a HUGE upgrade and that is something Baron Davis certainly will bring. Just having a PG who can dribble the ball up court for 30 mins a game w/o dribbling off his foot would be an improvement lol

  49. Richmond County

    Lin and Jordan were assigned to the D-League. I don’t think this means much of anything because as I understand it salary cap and roster space are unaffected. Does anyone know this for sure?

  50. JK47

    None of our “point guards” can crack a 20.0 assist rate. Baron Davis is generally around 40.0. I’m holding out hope that BD really embraces the role of pass-first PG and won’t be looking to shoot as much as he did with the Clips and Warriors.

  51. latke

    BigBlueAL:
    The Melo post-up numbers are interesting.If he posted up and got the ball in a normal post-up area I would do it on every possession no problem.Hell sometimes he gets such great position its an automatic trip to the FT line or layup.Its the high-post, give it to him 20 ft from the basket clear-outs that are the problem.

    Yep, BBA agree 100%. Not only does Melo generally end up with worse shots, but it’s easier for the defense to recover after a double team. They just double off of whoever’s at the top of the key — all of two or three steps away. If he did this more often, teams might adjust by putting bigger, slower guys on him (power forwards). He could then step out and take those guys off the dribble. He has a big weight advantage against most small forwards. There’s no reason he shouldn’t get down there every time.

  52. BigBlueAL

    Richmond County:
    Lin and Jordan were assigned to the D-League.I don’t think this means much of anything because as I understand it salary cap and roster space are unaffected.Does anyone know this for sure?

    No affect whatsoever. The beat writers though are suggesting it might mean Baron Davis is even closer to returning hence not keeping Lin around as the emergency PG.

  53. nicos

    One potential positive with BD is that- unlike the folks here at Knickerblogger- players don’t pay a lot of attention to advanced stats. In Amar’e and Melo’s minds Davis is a star playmaking point guard and I think there’s a higher likelihood of them deferring to him than just about anybody outside of Nash and Paul- probably a greater likelihood than with any point guard Melo’s played with yet. Iverson and Billups were both “scoring” points and Andre Miller might have been a better playmaker than BD but came with far less of a rep. I think there’ll probably be a three/four week window where Melo will let Davis run the offense without constantly demanding iso’s- if the offense clicks (big if if Davis comes in chucking) the Knicks have a chance to be pretty good. If it doesn’t say, hello to Mike Woodson interim coach!

  54. bobneptune

    The Honorable Cock Jowles: Dude, are you actually knocking the Chandler signing because he “only scores” 11 points per game?

    Can you read the advanced stats section of this blog before posting again? Please?

    Tyson Chander’s is scoring 10.1 ppg this season. Must have been a panic move to throw all that money at him, yeah?

    WRONG. WRONG. WRONG. WRONG WRONG WRONG. YOU COULDN’T BE MORE WRONG IF YOU TRIED.

    Dude’s Ortg is 142. TOPS IN THE LEAGUE. His .779 TS% would OBLITERATE the league record. We’re talking the kind of efficiency that has NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE EVER.

    dear cock ‘dude’,

    i am knocking chandler because he clogs what was left of the cap space at an average of 14.5 million per year. he is an inefficient use of capital. he may be efficient shooting his 4 shots per game, but he is totally overpaid and that blocks the acquisition of sorely needed assets.

    you can quote ORtg and advanced stats til the cows come home. you know who was second to chandler in ORtg last year? bleeping amir johnson. what value is a stat where those 2 lead in anything offensive?

    if you take 4 shots a game and they are all lobs and put backs, don’t ever touch the ball on offense where you can turn it over and stand 7 foot1, your ORtg should be pretty good. 77% true shooting doesn’t mean much without some volume of shots. he’s a fine dunker of lobs and put backs. amen, but that doesn’t stop he being a gigantic cap clogger @ 14.5 million per year.

    he is a fine complimentary player, but is a total waste of capital @ his price. i like advanced stats and they have their utility, but singing the praises of a guy with a through the roof ts% when he takes 4 dunks a game and never touches the ball in any other context is a little silly.

  55. Owen

    “What I find most amusing is the general grumpiness of many posters here when the Knicks are playing poorly. lol”

    The Knicks have been playing poorly for a decade. We aren’t grumpy just because of the way they are playing lately. We are grumpy because of a litany of bad decisions and because we could have had a core of Gallinari, Lawson, Blair, and 50 million in cap space right now.

  56. Bruno Almeida

    the Spurs found yet another young, talented player out of nowhere… Danny Green has been pretty good replacing Manu, how do they keep finding those guys every year and we are stuck with Bill Walker and Mike Bibby?

  57. bobneptune

    Brian Cronin (@Brian_Cronin): Melo had no idea what the free agent rules were going to be before the trade. They could easily have lowered the max salary, in which case he’d be leaving millions and millions on the table.

    Lebron and Bosh ended up each giving up roughly $10 million over the life time of their contracts (roughly $2 million a year), and of that $10 million, who knows how much of that is “made up” by Florida’s lack of personal income tax – certainly a considerable portion (their maximum salary was lower than Melo’s maximum salary because he signed a full extension with the Nuggets – had he become a free agent at the same time of them, his maximum salary would have been the same as them).

    my point is lebron and wade could have demanded the top money amar’e got, but passed it up so they would have room for bosh. melo needed to massage his ego and wallet with a ‘max’ contract at the cost of various useful pieces that could have been kept or moved for better player(s)

    so you agree the long term best interest of building a championship caliber team was sabotaged so melo could get “his” money and jimmy d could get his, correct?

    also, imo the notion the there was any way the max salary for melo type players was going to be lowered by some cataclysmic amount just isn’t consistent with reality. a virtual straw man argument. the top players were always going to get paid in any system. the league promotes the top players.

    melo had to get every single last dollar, and he got it…. and we got a team of mismatched players with lots of holes with no possible way to fill them.

    gg knicks. at least i got to see two championships in college in my lifetime :-)

  58. d-mar

    B-Diddy is the kind of dude IMO that will have no problem with the pressure of playing in NY (and being anointed the savior of the Knicks by desperate Knicks fans), similar to how we’ve watched him over the years have no problem taking, and often making, the big shot in a game (and often against us!)

    I can’t wait for us to have a real PG, it can’t happen soon enough.

  59. daJudge

    bobneptune–your posts are always well thought out, but can you name two other Centers (not faux centers) who play D like Chandler? \We do not need him shooting more. That is simply not his role, which he has honed and is playing with gusto and efficiency. Can’t we play guys in their roles. Notwithstanding Nicos comments at 50, which are relevant, he is doing just what I would expect and hope for from a Center. If you think he is a waste of salary, I respect your perspective, but we are on totally different planets. We finally actually have a very good Center. I am not basing this on stats, but I think the stats certainly bear this out and confirm my subjective observations. In addition, I agree that he should touch the ball more—as a conduit or a shooter tight in. Once the stretch players start hitting, which they will, he will be even more potent. His efficiency, leadership and toughness are things of beauty. They will all be enhanced with a skilled 1. I can’t wait.

  60. Frank O.

    Owen:
    “What I find most amusing is the general grumpiness of many posters here when the Knicks are playing poorly. lol”

    The Knicks have been playing poorly for a decade. We aren’t grumpy just because of the way they are playing lately. We are grumpy because of a litany of bad decisions and because we could have had a core of Gallinari, Lawson, Blair, and 50 million in cap space right now.

    Still amusing. I have been watching the Knicks for more than four decades. Their futility is epic. But I’m beginning to think that like Boston and the Babe, the Knicks have touched off an era of the Ewing Curse. Ever since the Knicks sent Pat packing for some horrid contracts, things have gotten very ugly. Lol
    Last night I watched I watched the Knicks eliminate Boston in ’90 and lose game four to the Alonzo/LJ Hornets in ’94. Good times. People always see Oak as an enforcer, but he was virtually automatic from 15 to 17 feet.
    This team will improve once Baron plays. TD will get better when the pressure is off him. SHUMP will get more efficient in time.
    But Owen, you are right about the draft in which they passed on several solid guards for hill. Bad.

  61. JK47

    The Knicks have been horrible on defense for a very long time, and now they aren’t. They are statistically a better than average defensive team this season despite doing a horrible job guarding the 3-point line and despite giving major minutes to defensive stalwarts like Amar’e Stoudemire, Landry Fields, Bill Walker and Toney Douglas. Tyson Chandler’s value is obvious to me.

  62. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    bobneptune: dear cock ‘dude’,

    i am knocking chandler because he clogs what was left of the cap space at an average of 14.5 million per year. he is an inefficient use of capital. he may be efficient shooting his 4 shots per game, but he is totally overpaid and that blocks the acquisition of sorely needed assets.

    you can quote ORtg and advanced stats til the cows come home. you know who was second to chandler in ORtg last year? bleeping amir johnson. what value is a stat where those 2 lead in anything offensive?

    if you take 4 shots a game and they are all lobs and put backs, don’t ever touch the ball on offense where you can turn it over and stand 7 foot1, your ORtg should be pretty good. 77% true shooting doesn’t mean much without some volume of shots. he’s a fine dunker of lobs and put backs. amen, but that doesn’t stop he being a gigantic cap clogger @ 14.5 million per year.

    he is a fine complimentary player, but is a total waste of capital @ his price. i like advanced stats and they have their utility, but singing the praises of a guy with a through the roof ts% when he takes 4 dunks a game and never touches the ball in any other context is a little silly.

    WRONG. WRONG. WRONG.

    Find me another player with his usage and efficiency. What few opportunities he uses to make shot attempts he converts with all-time-great efficiency.

    Are you telling me that Chandler’s not all that special? Find me another player who was as efficient as he is. There are thousands of players throughout the years. Find me one who had a season like he’s having.

  63. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    You can talk all you want about how what he’s doing is “nothing special” because of WHERE he takes his shots. Well, bro, not many centers play outside of the paint.

    Because they’re centers.

    If it were as easy as you say, there’d be tons of players putting up his gaudy numbers. You’re wrong. You can make excuses all you want, but the numbers don’t lie in this case. He doesn’t take many shots, but he wastes so few — NO ONE HAS DONE WHAT HE IS DOING. EVER.

  64. JK47

    Jowles is right on this one. Despite not taking lots of FGA, Chandler does average around 11 points per game. He gets to the line around 6 times per game due to his strength and quickness, and he’s converted about 80 per cent of his free throws. The guy is very valuable.

  65. bobneptune

    daJudge:
    bobneptune–your posts are always well thought out, but can you name two other Centers (not faux centers) who play D like Chandler?

    judge,

    there is one who i have lusted for the past couple of years named javale mcgee. he blocks shots and rebounds similarly if not better than chandler, is younger and healthier and makes 2.6million this year and 3.5 million next year. having him in the place of chandler leaves lots of options moving forward that’s doors are now shut due to chandler’s salary.

    that is why i am so pissed with melo being traded for last year. if gallo, w. chandler’s rights, mosgov, felton, a. randolph, the pharoh an 2014 #1 and 2 2013#2′s were still in the quiver, i’m sure some sort of deal could have been swung for him.

    my problem with chandler isn’t his ability (which is fairly substantial) but rather he is a poor allocation of resources. he just isn’t a good 14.5 million year player.

    the knicks are now stuck 15 million over the cap with a terribly flawed team with no way to acquire players other than the waver wire and a mid level exception in the coming years.

    do you realize the entire knick season rests on a player who played his best ball 4 years ago and after not playing a game for 6 months needs an additional 6 weeks to get his creaky back healthy enough to play? talk about needing to catch lightning in a bottle!

  66. bobneptune

    The Honorable Cock Jowles:

    Are you telling me that Chandler’s not all that special? Find me another player who was as efficient as he is. There are thousands of players throughout the years. Find me one who had a season like he’s having.

    the mav’s saw all of chandler’s fantastic advanced stats and after winning a title with him decided he wasn’t worth the 58.5 million dollar investment moving forward.

    [/THREAD]

  67. nicos

    THCJ- Honest question: Just in terms of team offensive efficiency, would rather have Chandler’s year this year or Amar’e's 07/08 where his TS% was .656% with a usage of over 28? I’m not knocking Chandler but there are 60 instances of guys who’ve put up a TS% of over 60 with usages above 25 and I’d take at least half (if not all) of those seasons over the one Chandler is having now- it’s great, and he was great last year too, but it’s not one of the greatest offensive seasons of all time.

  68. daJudge

    bobneptune–I like McGee too and I think our boys would have loved to sign him. Unfortunately, I doubt that was possible. I was never a huge fan of Gallo, or any of the other former Knicks that were traded, but that’s just me. I thought they had a nice thing going and Gallo and the rest are fine players, but I simply do not rue the trade. Of course it would have been better if we gave up less, but the timing was bad. I lived through Clyde being exiled to Cleveland, Patrick being vilified by dopes that called themselves fans, so the Melo mass exodus really didn’t hit me the way it affected some of our posters. Personally, I really like Melo (I live way upstate) and as I noted before, he reminds me of Bernard, one of my favorite players all time. So, of course I’m biased. Straight up though, while I don’t think he or Chandler are the best at their positions, they are damn good. However, I am worried that Melo and Stat are redundant. To me, this is a coaching issue. Look, we a bonafide center, a really good 3, I still believe in Stat and we are struggling a bit at guard. We will get better. Also, with Chandler, it is hardly just his stats, he’s a dude. I know that is highly subjective and moronic to some, but that’s how I see it.

  69. Brian Cronin (@Brian_Cronin)

    Dwight Howard continues to be so dumb. “I’d accept a trade to the Clippers.” Oh, good for you, Dwight! And the trade would be who, exactly? Mo Williams, Ryan Gomes, Eric Bledsoe and Randy Foye for Howard? I believe those are the only guys the Clippers can trade besides Blake Griffin.

  70. BigBlueAL

    How can you not love Baron Davis after this tweet:

    Watching tape on @SteveNash in coach D’ Antoni’s system. My step bro was turning it out. can’t wait to play 4 coach and rock out!! #focused!

  71. latke

    @bobneptune

    The mavs saw an opportunity to sign the one center in the league who is head and shoulders better than Chandler (not to mention several years younger): Dwight Howard. They saw the chance to add Deron Williams on top of that. They made a reasonable choice.

    McGee puts up gaudy numbers, and I was once very interested in him as well, but if you watch Wizards games ( don’t bite me Cock Jowles ) you see he is lazy and stat driven. He misses rotations, gives up on plays — generally gives back almost as much as he gets. Last season the Wizards defense was a point worse with him on the floor, and that was with Andray Blatche (the laziest of a team of lazies) getting most of the other minutes at center.

    For me, the Wizards are the first team where I feel like the cliché “they need veteran leadership” is true. Outside of Wall, most of those guys play like they don’t care, especially Nick Young, Blatche and McGee.

  72. Juany8

    Chandler isn’t impressive because of his offensive efficiency, he’s impressive because he’s an incredible defensive center who is capable of being a net plus on offense by being an excellent roll man in the pick and roll and by getting offensive rebounds and other high efficiency “garbage” points. He isn’t a great offensive player, but he’s very solid and you pay premium money for an elite defensive big like Chandler period.

    As as far a stat like offensive rating, think about this hypothetical. Let’s say Tyson Chandler decided to develop a nice jump shot so that he clogs the lane less and provides more off the ball targets for Amar’e and Carmelo. Even if he only takes an average of 1-2 jumpers a game from 5-10 feet, at a solid percentage like 48% where he would have to be respected by the defense, his shooting percentage would decrease noticeably because of his low total attempts. So by improving his offensive game and allowing for better flow in the offense, Chandler would be seen as a worse player by offensive rating or TS%. Since Win Shares and Wins Produced are both based on offensive efficiency without much regard, if any, to the offensive load the player carries, they tend to overvalue efficient hustle players who play within their game. Ironically that means any attempt by a player to improve some to play outside his comfort level would probably be rated as a negative by efficiency stats

  73. nicos

    I guess I need to sharpen my math skills! Even at his low usage rate Chandler’s having a top 15 all-time season (not factoring turnovers) if all other shots taken by the team are converted at league average. Fantastic- but Amar’e's 07/08 was still better!!

  74. nicos

    Meaning it’s better for the team to have a with a .656% TS and a usage of 28.2 than to have a guy with a .780% TS and a usage of 11. And I’d agree with everything Juany8 said above.

  75. bobneptune

    Juany8:
    Chandler isn’t impressive because of his offensive efficiency, he’s impressive because he’s an incredible defensive center who is capable of being a net plus on offense by being an excellent roll man in the pick and roll and by getting offensive rebounds and other high efficiency “garbage” points. He isn’t a great offensive player, but he’s very solid and you pay premium money for an elite defensive big like Chandler period.

    juan,

    could you provide a list of all the elite defensive big men with zero offensive game who were paid premium money plz? i’m drawing a blank finding a single one.

    i mean even bill russell and nate thurmond averaged 15 ppg and put up 13.5 shots per game. they are flat out gunners compared to chandler.

  76. bobneptune

    wait a minute…. stop the presses…. i found a purely elite defender with zero offensive game that was paid primo bucks, dikembe mutombo!

    of course… he was an 8 time all star and 4 time defensive player of the year which is just an ennntsy-weennnsy bit better than chandler’s place in the pantheon of defensive centers.

  77. jon abbey

    Mutumbo also.

    Mike, if you see this, your unofficial t-shirt advisor thinks you should do a Baron Davis one now, get out ahead of the curve. I recommend something along the lines of B-LIEVE above a photoshopped pic of him in a Knicks uniform above B-DIDDY. you’re welcome.

  78. bobneptune

    JK47:
    @84

    Ben Wallace.

    yes…. ben wallace who made over 7.5million 3 years in his career signed one of the worst 3 yr 46 million dollar contracts in the history of the nba.

    wallace was appropriately paid when he was making 7 million for the pistons. does anyone think he was worth the 14.5 – 16 million he was paid with chicago and cleveland?

  79. latke

    @Juany, you make a good point. It’s difficult to measure. Remember though that TS% isn’t considered a measure of a player’s value. The metric most people on this board seem to prefer is win shares. For each point scored at 92% of the average efficiency of the NBA or better, the player’s offensive win shares (OWS) go up. The more efficient the player is, the more value he gets from each point, but volume scoring is definitely valuable (as long as it isn’t at well below average efficiency).

    assuming the average # of points per possession is .95 (can’t find the exact number), consider these two examples:

    Player A) scores 36 points per 48 (the amount Melo scores) @ 1 point per possession ( assuming 3 TOs/48, a TS% of about 55%).

    Player B) scores 10 points per 48 and @ 1.2 points per possession (assuming 3 TOs/48, a TS% of about 86%).

    Player A, despite being significant less efficient (lower TS%) will have OWS/48 of nearly double that of Player B. This is because of his volume scoring.

    Here are the pair’s OWS/48 this season:

    Melo: .127 OWS/48
    Chandler: .167 OWS/48

    The reason for the difference is just as much a result of Chandler’s efficiency as it is a result of Melo averaging nearly double the turnovers. This is partly due to his handling the ball a good amount, but it’s also a result of his style of play. LaMarcus Aldridge, for example, scores 22/game at a lower TS% than Melo, but due to his low TOs (1.5/game), his OWS/48 is higher. His team, perhaps due to better guard play, but probably in no small part due to his style of play, averages 2 fewer TOs than NY.

    All this is not to say that WS is flawless. It just means that scoring, even at average efficiency, can do a lot for a player’s win shares. Just taking open layups won’t get you to the top. If you look at the OWS leaders, Chandler is the only low volume guy on there.

  80. bobneptune

    jon abbey:
    oh, Bob said him. Rodman?

    i don’t think anyone considers rodman a center. rodman was also a vastly superior rebounder to chandler and was also twice the nba defensive player of the year…..

    rodman also only had one year where he made over 4.5 million per year!!!

  81. JK47

    1. Ben Wallace was not as good as Tyson Chandler; he was low-usage, low-efficiency, unlike the low-usage, high-efficiency Chandler.

    2. He was still a very valuable player in his years in Detroit, because defense is 50% of basketball and he was very, very good at it.

    3. He wasn’t worth the contract Chicago gave him because he was old (32 when he signed) and declining.

    Anyway, your original question was: “could you provide a list of all the elite defensive big men with zero offensive game who were paid premium money plz? i’m drawing a blank finding a single one.” Well, there you go. Not every single one panned out, but there are plenty of examples of defense-oriented bigs getting big contracts.

    Premium defensive bigs don’t come cheap. And there’s a reason they aren’t cheap: they help you win games. Last year the Knicks were 22nd in team defense, this year they’re 11th despite the fact that most of the guards are horrible defenders, the team ranks #29 in 3-point percentage allowed and the power forward is Amar’e Stoudemire. The team is #6 in defensive rebounding and rapidly rising, up from #26 last year.

    You act as if guys like Chandler grow on trees and you can just find one for a few million bucks.

  82. jon abbey

    no one thinks a unit of five 2012 Chandlers would be better offensively than a unit of five 2012 Melos, right? because if you honestly believe that to be the case, I really think basketball might not be the sport for you to follow.

  83. ruruland

    latke: Yep, BBA agree 100%. Not only does Melo generally end up with worse shots, but it’s easier for the defense to recover after a double team. They just double off of whoever’s at the top of the key — all of two or three steps away. If he did this more often, teams might adjust by putting bigger, slower guys on him (power forwards). He could then step out and take those guys off the dribble. He has a big weight advantage against most small forwards. There’s no reason he shouldn’t get down there every time.

    you ever think it was a little difficult to do that when you’re running the point 60 percent of the time and running HIGH pnr as a 3.

    Denver used to run an elbow pnr with Nene that turned into could be turned into a high-low.

    But it’s tough to post a 3 right now with the way the other 4 guys on the court are shooting.

  84. ruruland

    jon abbey: no one thinks a unit of five 2012 Chandlers would be better offensively than a unit of five 2012 Melos, right? because if you honestly believe that to be the case, I really think basketball might not be the sport for you to follow.

    That’s clearly the implication.

  85. bobneptune

    JK47:
    Joakim Noah, 5 years, $60M plus bonuses.

    this is the best one i’ve seen. of course noah is younger and 2.5 million a year cheaper, but it’s a fair comparison.

    of course if you called chicago and proposed a swap for chandler you would get laughed at pretty quickly.

  86. ruruland

    This is partly due to his handling the ball a good amount, but it’s also a result of his style of play. LaMarcus Aldridge, for example, scores 22/game at a lower TS% than Melo, but due to his low TOs (1.5/game), his OWS/48 is higher. His team, perhaps due to better guard play, but probably in no small part due to his style of play, averages 2 fewer TOs than NY.All this is not to say that WS is flawless. It just means that scoring, even at average efficiency, can do a lot for a player’s win shares. Just taking open layups won’t get you to the top. If you look at the <A href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2

    So, how does this help us in anyway? What does OWS really represent then? Clearly, Chandler's low turnovers have everything to do with his "style of play."

    It's patently absurd to conclude that Chandler has more offensive value than Melo currently, give that a large percentage of his dunks and fts have been created by Melo passes.

    Chandler has been extremely fortunate from a statistical perspective to have played alongside Chris Paul and Jason kidd to this point. Melo's done a fantastic job with him, as well. I will give Chandler this: he sets excellent screens.

  87. bobneptune

    jon abbey:
    no one thinks a unit of five 2012 Chandlers would be better offensively than a unit of five 2012 Melos, right? because if you honestly believe that to be the case, I really think basketball might not be the sport for you to follow.

    this made the soda come out of my nose. but it shows the inherent problem with basing an opinion strictly of advanced stats in a vacuum.

  88. bobneptune

    JK47:

    Anyway, your original question was: “could you provide a list of all the elite defensive big men with zero offensive game who were paid premium money plz? i’m drawing a blank finding a single one.”Well, there you go.Not every single one panned out, but there are plenty of examples of defense-oriented bigs getting big contracts.

    You act as if guys like Chandler grow on trees and you can just find one for a few million bucks.

    there are certainly lots of examples of defensive bigs getting big contracts. most of them turn out to be awful contracts. dalembert, okafor, etc. that isn’t a good reason to spend your remaining 15 million in cap space on a clone of theirs.

    guys like chandler don’t grow on trees but the knicks gave him an outrageous contract, imo.

    he is currently, the 30st highest paid player out of the 360 active players on 30 nba rosters. he wouldn’t be the best player on any team and likely not the 2nd best player on most either. there are a lot of teams he wouldn’t be the 3rd best player.

    giving him 14.5 million per has foreclosed any other options moving forward to improve the team. that is poor allocation of precious resources, imo.

  89. latke

    @ruru, it was in response to Juany questioning the value of advanced stats. I was just trying to show that efficiency isn’t the only thing that goes into the equation.

    Look, there are always ways to cheat the system. If a guy goes after rebounds before the other team shoots, ignoring rotations, he’s going to get more rebounds and appear better in every metric. Kevin Love and David Lee fit into this category. If a guard has great screen setters that get him open, that’s going to increase his OWS even though he’s only part of the offensive success. There are myriad ways that these metrics can be “tricked”.

    That said, if Melo is doing all the work, why didn’t Ronny Turiaf turn into “the man” last year after the trade? Chandler’s baskets may appear easy, but for some reason no one else, even guys on teams with offensive dynamos who draw all kinds of attention (OKC for example) aren’t doing what Chandler does. I don’t I see Perkins or Ibaka on that list.

    You have guys like Joel Anthony who are truly low usage players that only shoot when open. His TS% is great, but he almost never shoots. His OWS/48 is .055 well below both Anthony and Chandler.

    Chandler doesn’t shoot it a ton, but like Cock Jowles pointed out, even at his low usage rate, his efficiency is remarkable.

    But to answer your question, no I don’t think Chandler is helping our offense more than Anthony. However, I think his value so far this season as an offensive player is severely underestimated.

  90. ruruland

    Perkins, Ibaka, and even Turiaf shoot a jump-shot from time to time and the former get quite a few post looks. That’s how seamlessly one-dimensional Chandler is on offense.

    he’s a good finisher and sets good screens. Honestly, even Ben Wallace took a few shots from time to time… drive to the basket and flail.

    I don’t think Chandler has had more than one or two posts-ups or jumpers all year.

    I would venture to guess that he’s taken the least amount of shots outside of 3 foot, for players getting 25 minutes of burn or more, in the league. I’d be shocked if it’s even close.

    the Knicks offense is much better with Melo, or Melo and Jorts, or Stoudemire and Jorts, than it is with Chandler (+/-)

    His efficiency is massively overstated.

  91. Ben R

    In a world where Amare gets 18 million a year Chandler is not overpaid. He is an exceptional defender and his ability to finish near the basket makes it hard to double off of him. His contract is mainly for his defense but his offense cannot be overlooked.

    Offensively he is fairly one dimensional but this season and last season he has been of the best players ever to fill that one dimension. Offensively he is kinda like Steve Kerr, you wouldn’t want five on your team but if you need an outside shooter to open things up he is your first choice. If you want a big man to get offensive rebounds and finish at the basket Chandler is your first choice. He is exceptional at the role he fills in this offense, the fact that he doesn’t diminish his value by doing things he is not very good at is something to be lauded not criticized.

    Players like Chandler is the reason you want volume scorers like Melo in the first place. The goal is to surround your volume scorers with very efficient role players that do their role exceptionally.

  92. Nick C.

    The Honorable Cock Jowles: You can talk all you want about how what he’s doing is “nothing special” because of WHERE he takes his shots. Well, bro, not many centers play outside of the paint.Because they’re centers.If it were as easy as you say, there’d be tons of players putting up his gaudy numbers. You’re wrong. You can make excuses all you want, but the numbers don’t lie in this case. He doesn’t take many shots, but he wastes so few — NO ONE HAS DONE WHAT HE IS DOING. EVER.

    We get your point but it comes off as using Derek Jeter’s fielding percentage to argue that he is a great defensive SS.

    But +1000 to the last paragraph. We used to have one like that named Fields but he was either a mirage or he his skillset, such as it was, doesn’t mesh with this year’s offensive scheme.

  93. Bruno Almeida

    Ben R:
    In a world where Amare gets 18 million a year Chandler is not overpaid. He is an exceptional defender and his ability to finish near the basket makes it hard to double off of him. His contract is mainly for his defense but his offense cannot be overlooked.

    Offensively he is fairly one dimensional but this season and last season he has been of the best players ever to fill that one dimension. Offensively he is kinda like Steve Kerr, you wouldn’t want five on your team but if you need an outside shooter to open things up he is your first choice. If you want a big man to get offensive rebounds and finish at the basket Chandler is your first choice. He is exceptional at the role he fills in this offense, the fact that he doesn’t diminish his value by doing things he is not very good at is something to be lauded not criticized.

    Players like Chandler is the reason you want volume scorers like Melo in the first place. The goal is to surround your volume scorers with very efficient role players that do their role exceptionally.

    that’s the point, imo the fact that Chandler only does what he’s capable of doing on offense is actually what makes him so good.

    would you rather have Turiaf or Perkins shooting brick 15 foot jumpers just to “clog the lane less” or Carmelo / Amare doing it, with an elite offensive rebounder there to help clean up some of the misses?

    Chandler is what he is, an elite defender, incredible high-efficiency guy albeit with a low usage, aka the type of guy that helps any team become a championship contender.

    obviously, Chandler isn’t the defining part of the equation; but let’s not act like this type of player is useless, because the Isiah era has shown us pretty well how undervaluing elite defense / efficient offense is stupid.

  94. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    Jim Cavan (@JPCavan): You’re a professor?

    Yes, and I would never talk like that to my students. I have a responsibility to foster their growth. I don’t have a responsibility to bobneptune. The documentation for the importance of shooting efficiency is right on this page, yet he’s convinced Chandler was overpaid because the Mavs didn’t resign him because Howard has said he would play for Cuban.

  95. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    nicos:
    Meaning it’s better for the team to have a with a .656% TS and a usage of 28.2 than to have a guy with a .780% TS and a usage of 11.And I’d agree with everything Juany8 said above.

    This is true, but Chandler’s also a great defender. And Amar’e's never going to be 24 again.

  96. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    jon abbey:
    no one thinks a unit of five 2012 Chandlers would be better offensively than a unit of five 2012 Melos, right? because if you honestly believe that to be the case, I really think basketball might not be the sport for you to follow.

    But it doesn’t matter who’s taking the shots on the perimeter for Chandler to be effective.

  97. bobneptune

    The Honorable Cock Jowles: I don’t have a responsibility to bobneptune. The documentation for the importance of shooting efficiency is right on this page, yet he’s convinced Chandler was overpaid because the Mavs didn’t resign him because Howard has said he would play for Cuban.

    honorable cock,

    i can tell you i’m not convinced tc is worth 14.5 million because he beat out amir johnson in some obscure metric.

    the very same metric that values cornbread maxwell’s career over michael jordan’s.

    if you believe tyson chandler is the 30th most valuable player in the nba, then i really can’t argue with you.

Comments are closed.