You may be right about Mosgov regarding how tough he plays on D, but it is the ticky tack that kills him. I did see him make some nice catches in traffic against the US.

I said I would be a little shocked if we made the playoffs a) because it has been so long and b) because we’re still very thin. If Amare or Felton goes down, we’re genuinely fucked.

And, also, the season really does depend on Felton playing well.

Another reason I’ll be a little shocked if we make it is because that would mean Felton played consistently well.

I think Z’s rankings in #44 are pretty plausible. I don’t know that Toronto gets that much worse and I don’t know that NJ gets that much better. Who knows, though.

Frank O.: If they make the playoffs, I’ll be happy and probably a little shocked.  

I’ll be disappointed–though certainly not shocked–if the Knicks DON’T make the playoffs. It’s going to take a bunch of things going right, but I will be quite disappointed in Walshtoni if in their 3rd season they can’t put a mediocre team on the court (one below average team in each conference makes the playoffs every season).

I forgot about the hand injury, but that’s what I was saying: last season was more likely a glitch than him falling off a cliff long-term. He’s a very limited player, anyway, though. He can fill a role, but I have a feeling Toney Douglas will fill the same role far, far more capably.

Jafa: who is going to score points for Denver?

Billups, Lawson, Nene, K-Mart, JR Smith, Iggy, Birdman, Al Harrington… I don’t think Denver lacks for capable scorers if they trade Melo for Iggy. Their offense may get better if Melo’s shots are redistributed to more efficient scorers like Billups, Lawson, and Nene.

Jafa: Also, if Melo wants to go to a bad team that he can lead them to the playoffs in the East, I think the Nets are a better fit.

Since he’s not a free agent yet, he can’t really make that decision in any way besides refusing to sign an extension… Philly may not mind a one year rental with the worst case being Iggy’s contract off the books… Or maybe they do mind that, I have no idea.

Frank O.: I think foul trouble is one of his greatest shortcomings and if he gets that right, he could get more time. If he doesn’t get his foul problems under control he’ll be fortunate to get 20.

I haven’t seen much indication he’ll get it right… Maybe you tell him to give less effort defensively, but then is he worth having out there? I think the best thing is to let him go wild for limited stretches and figure out the foul thing over time. Fouls do hurt a defense and having your C foul out in 20 minutes isn’t good, but when they come on hard fouls protecting the paint that will be mixed in with some intimidation and blocked shots… probably worth it for the Knicks. When he gets the ticky-taky touch fouls… just shoot him.

Frank O.: Chandler, Walker, Douglas and Fields only get attention right now because the Knicks have been so staffed with mediocrity that they were all fans or coaches had to hope for. None of them have shown themselves to be starters

-I was quite impressed with Toney’s rookie season, and don’t see why he can’t be one of the better combo-guards in the NBA. Guys like Manu, Leandro, or Jason Terry can command 30 mpg (heck, Manu might have been the best or 2nd best SG in the NBA for a 5 or so year span).
-Fields hasn’t shown anything. He was commonly called one of the top 5-10 players in Vegas by scouts and analysts, though.
-Walker has shown that he can score the ball at a very high efficiency inside and out. Hard to keep a 60% TS% guy glued to the bench if he can actually maintain something in that neighborhood.
-Chandler I’d call mediocre offensively, but he’s played over 33 mpg each of his seasons for D’Antoni and is the Knicks’ perimeter defensive specialist.
-Plus Azu and Mason. Plus Felton, who is the only real PG on the roster. Hopefully Douglas and Mason push him, but after he stuck with Duhon I have a hard time seeing D’Antoni ditch Felton.
-No way all those guys get 30 mpg, but there are only going to be 5 or 6 guys getting that much burn in all likelihood. Amare, Gallo, Randolph, and Felton are probably 4 of the 5-6, with WC also likely to get minutes (especially if AR disappoints). After that there’s a lot of competition for minutes.

Frank O.: Personally, I think Amare should play power forward mostly. He doesn’t like playing center, and he’s better as a forward.

Who says he’s better as a forward besides him? The Suns had a whole lot of success with him at the 5. D’Antoni likes to have 4 perimeter players on the court, and I’d prefer to keep Amare scoring inside than push him out to the perimeter… He’s not a bad jump shooting big, but he’s also not very good. It’s not his strength.
If the Knicks want to have a more traditional line-up, and I’m not saying they shouldn’t, then D’Antoni is probably not the coach for them.

Frank O.: I don’t think offense from either guy is terribly important. I want them to rebound and guard the paint. We have some decent scorers.

I have to honestly question how many scorers the Knicks have should they play Amare at the 4. Felton is an awful scorer and should see a lot of minutes. Randolph is not a good scorer, especially if he’s playing on the perimeter with Amare at the 4 and a C. WC is not a good scorer and not a good jump shooter. My point is that a lot of the Knicks good scorers outside of Amare and Gallo are perimeter players. Playing Turiaf and Timo all the minutes at the 5 effectively pushes one or two of those guys out of the rotation. It puts a bunch of guys in the rotation who want to be scoring at the hoop: Amare, Timo, AR, WC, Felton… while likely taking a shooter out of the rotation.

Frank O.: I don’t think either team had a strong center to play that role in either case, so I’m not sure I understand your point there.

My point is that you can win 60 games with Amare as your center. If the Knicks win 60 games I will shit myself out of joy.
Again, this is D’Antoni we’re talking about. Guy is not going to put a line-up with only 1 shooter in it on the court.
Also, if there is a real offensive/defensive trade-off between Amare at the 4 and 5… I don’t know. Turiaf is a solid defender, but not great. Timo is raw defensively. I think the Knicks are likely to lose more offensively than they gain defensively. One or both of those guys has/ve a chance to compete for the 15 or so mpg Amare is on the bench (unless Randolph beats them out that badly). And then more minutes depending on match-ups. I don’t see the need to force them 48 mpg combined and change the offensive system completely if they don’t actually earn the minutes and beat out the wings for rotation spots.

Frank O.: I have to say I’m a bit shocked at the bad hands comment. He made some very nice catch and shoot plays of the PnR in traffic.

All the scouting reports say as much. I don’t think they’re particularly terrible, just not David Lee-style good. It might also be based on old play, and he’s improved.
Most of his rolls to the basket in the tournament that I remember didn’t come in much traffic.

Frank O.: I think the US team made a point of saying the guy was tought to contain so they worked hard to get him in foul trouble.

He was in foul trouble most of the tournament and most of the professional season as well…

Frank O.: I think Amare will be a far better contributor at PF.

Based on what?

Frank O.: BTW, I think the season rest on the shoulders of Felton.

Then we’re screwed.

Miami: 63-19
Orlando: 59-23
Boston: 51-31
Atlanta: 49-33
Chicago: 48-34
Milwaukee: 46-36
New York: 43-39
Charlotte: 42-42
–
Philadelphia
Indiana
New Jersey
Cleveland
Washington
Detroit
Toronto

I don’t agree that the East got that much tougher. In order for the conference to be significantly tougher and thereby make the Knicks’ schedule more difficult it would mean that there are more good teams in the conference. The reality is that two teams made significant improvements that should show up in their regular season records in Miami and Chicago. With that, however, are three teams that current opinions believe have taken significant steps back in Cleveland, Toronto and Charlotte. So although there is a bit more weight at the top of the conference that is offset by new teams that will be no good at all. The reg season schedule for the Knicks should not be more difficult.

Adding some conjecture to that, I think that Atlanta runs the risk of being not as good having made no improvements and, frankly, having their confidence crushed by Orlando last year and a new coach. I think you will see Boston running at 3/4 speed during the regular season and dealing with limiting the minutes of their core 3 in order to have the ready for a playoff run. The Bulls will also be figuring things out at the beginning of the year w a bunch of new players and a new coach (I thought that of all the players at FIBA that Rose looked least impressive especially as a point guard distributor type and his shot was awful).

The Knicks season hinges first on Felton, second on Gallo and third on the emergence of 2 of Randolph/Moz/Fields/Chandler/Azu/Waker/Douglas. If 2/3 of those factors happen for the good, we win 42-43 games. If 3/3 then the ceiling is as high as 47 or 48 IMO.

@34
I have to say I’m a bit shocked at the bad hands comment. He made some very nice catch and shoot plays of the PnR in traffic. I think the US team made a point of saying the guy was tought to contain so they worked hard to get him in foul trouble. He’s a true 7’1 with a strong, athletic body. There are so few of those guys around. Turiaf has been a modest, although very likeable player, C. He’s undersized at the position and likely will have trouble against big centers.

Perhaps we’re destined to watch a two-headed beast at center, but at least we have centers this year who appear viable. I think Amare will be a far better contributor at PF.

BTW, I think the season rest on the shoulders of Felton. It isn’t enough that he won’t be scortching the Knicks twice a year for this trade to work out…:)
If he can leverage his strengths (speed, ball handling, passing), and limit his weaknesses (shooting) this could be a nice year. If he falters, the Knicks could face another catastrophic year.

No matter what happens, I think we need to view all of this with skepticism, however optimistic we may want to be. The East got a hell of a lot tougher, so however much the Knicks have improved, I think 2011-2012 will be a far better season. I think we will be frustrated this year at times. If they make the playoffs, I’ll be happy and probably a little shocked.

PG: Felton
SG: Mason
SF: Gallo
PF: STAT
C: Turiaf

Bench: Douglas, Chandler, Randolph

Upset player due to exclusion from rotation: Mozgov. After all, his agent was promised he would be the back-up center.

Upset player due to communication issue: Mason or Chandler. After Azu is fully recovered from his injury, either Mason or Chandler will get dropped from the rotation, and will have an issue with Mike D’s communication, or lack thereof.

Upset player due to his own incompetence: Curry. No explanation needed.

Denver interested in dealing Melo to Sixers for your boy Iggy.

http://www.realgm.com/src_wiretap_archives/69141/20100916/melo_still_wants_trade_out_of_denver/

Must admit, Iggy played well at the world’s for what he was asked to do, but who is going to score points for Denver? Also, if Melo wants to go to a bad team that he can lead them to the playoffs in the East, I think the Nets are a better fit. That is unless Elton Brand regains his 20/10 form.

Ted Nelson: Roger Mason never had all that much, but it’s not that usual for a 29 year old to suddenly forget how to shoot a basketball.

Roger Mason’s struggles last year came from a hand injury that is now healed. I think it is a resonable and likely expectation we will get the Mason’s before the injury which is a 39%-40% 3pt shooter with a 54%-56% TS%.

07-08
39.8% 3pt% – 57.3% TS%
08-09
42.1% TS% – 55.4% TS%
09-10 – October-January:
39.2% 3pt% – 54.3% TS%
–Injuries Hand–
09-10 – February-April:
25.2% 3pt% – 40.6% TS%