Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Monday, January 27, 2020

New York Knicks 132 – Los Angeles Clippers 135 – Game Recap

Sometimes, a loss is a loss is a loss. Sometimes, a loss is a great loss.

While the eternal child that resides in me always (always) hopes for a fat W when the Knicks play, there’s something to be said about my adult, cynical, bashed-by-life-where-shit-happens self not wanting the Knicks to win this one even when the game was close in the last moments. You see, winning is never inherently good. You have to factor in a lot of parameters in the equation, like: what’s there to gain with a win here? What are the chances we get to the playoffs if we beat the Clippers on their home turf? (0.00000002%). What are the chances that Morris never gets traded if he goes off for 40 and we defeat a possible/likely NBA finalist? (12%). Wait, did you consider that Pills are still our FO? (Oh, that’s right. Bump it up to 75%). And Dolan being the owner? (Oh shit. This is looking like the Stonks! meme. Turn this up to eleven and let’s say 101%). And what if BoPo chimes in from the bench with another double figures game? (Oh god. We’re gonna keep all those mercs around, aren’t we?).

I think you get my point, mostly because my point is also your point. Team realist has spread like a benign virus in the last three years of Knickerblogging, and while we’re not the happier for this, we’re certainly the saner. Or are we? After all we still follow closely the fate of an intrinsically doomed franchise, submitting ourselves to Wally’s homer droning in the process at least a half-dozen times a year.

The game was fun, mind you. Fun and kinda pointless, if you think that defense should be half of the endeavor. These days a lot of pundit fall head over heels after a first glance at the box scores. Hey, teams now routinely score 120+ points in regulation time! Call this a big win for Adam Silver’s NBA!

Let’s pump the brakes a bit, K? I don’t know if I really like this product. I mean, it’s not rocket science to acknowledge that more points = a better chance to bake that highlight reel cake in a way that looks really good. But you know what also looks really good? Every single fast food burger out there, in the ads. Marvelous, bursting at the buns, colorful and making you strive for odorama. Than you go to McDonald’s, order your Big Mac, and you find it’s soggy, lukewarm and sometimes even gloomy, as if your tax return has suddenly come to life in hamburger form (going by this metaphor, the All-Star Game is the actual bun they use for the photoshoot: fake, inedible, unhealthy and misleading).

Games like this give me exactly that feeling, and not because of the loss – I think I felt the same way after the 143 points outburst against the Hawks. Do a Mitch thunderous alley oop make any noise in the forest of double digit leads in the fourth?

I want to see defense. I want to see players put up 30+ points against hard competition. I want to see meaningful basketball juice, not this sort of homeopathic ball where they dilute and dilute and dilute the meaning of competent defensive possession hoping that your basketball hunger will be satiated by the water memory of an Anthony Mason defensive stance in December 1993.

Anyway, on to the game.

Early on, and I mean in the whole first quarter, it looked like the Clippers were in a sort of Groundhog Day routine. After conceding 40 points in the first quarter of their recent Memphis game, they went on and let the Knicks amass 45 points in the first stanza (to their 29). Everything was falling for the Bockers. RJ was scoring at will, Portis was raining threes, Morris was kinda hot, even Frank (who got the nod because Elfrid’s with his newborn baby and DSJ has a strained oblique – funny how these new generations come up with rebranding even for pouting and sucking) made his voice felt with a confident three from the dribble. Meanwhile Paul George at the 2 spot was fumbling the ball, Patrick Patterson was disappearing from the court, and Ivica Zubac was busy scoring high at Scrabble with his name.

Well, it was too good to be true (and it was easy to see it was a fluke. You usually can’t win a game against a top-3 team when they score 29 on you at their worst). In the second quarter, the wheels fell off and the Clips reciprocated with a 47-24 quarter of their own. It’s a good sign that the Knicks didn’t just roll over and die there; after all, the game was still close. It’s not a good sign that the gate were kicked open by the most likely suspects from the bench: Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell. Harrell in particular made a point of straightly abusing Mitch down low. It got so bad that I actively hoped that Mike Miller would put Taj Gibson back in the game because Mitch was looking like Bambi’s mother out there. It wasn’t pretty (Taj did zilch to stop Montrezl, but he’s expendable. I don’t want Mitch to look this bad out there, even if he deserved the humiliation, it’s probably needed to make him evolve. He has so much room to grow before becoming a cornerstone – but he’s hands down my favorite Knick ever since I got to watch NBA basketball in 1994, with honorable mentions for David Lee, Gallo, half a season of Landry Fields and two months of Jeremy Lin. I feel about him just as I felt gazing upon Manu Ginobili dressing up for my beloved Virtus Bologna. Don’t mess with my Mitch).

In the third it got worse. The offense looked like it stopped working (not true, they still put up 31 points, but in this context it looked like that) and the Clippers kept on piling point after point on us. The quarter ended up 38-31 for them, but it felt like 50-15. We looked hopeless out there while George, Williams and Harrell were cooking.

The fourth quarter saw an unlikely but inspired comeback on the heels of a monstre offensive performance from Mook; ultimately, we lost because they’re better than us at basketball and because even with their top two guns out of the game (Leonard due to load management – LeBron triggered – PG due to having fouled out) they still had the two best players on the floor in Williams and Harrell. The quarter ended 32-21 for us, but it wasn’t enough. And I felt happy that we lost.

The good:

– Imagine if Marcus Morris (38 pts, 5 rebs, 1 ast, +2 +/-) was playing this sort of basketball in a meaningful year. He’d be inducted into the Knicks hall of fame midseason. Frankly, I never expected that he could have this sort of impact on a game on the offensive end. Scoring 38 points on 19 shots isn’t an easy feat even for the top players out there. It’s a shame that Mook’s timeline doesn’t match with the Knicks one, or I could have easily fallen in love with his production (this is your daily reminder that we signed him only because Bullock failed his medical. Don’t give Pills too much credit for Morris, ever). Right now, I feel like a farmer in the sixteenth century that had a beautiful daughter and was smart enough to know that the best scenario for him was to have her marry a noble suitor. Sometimes love has to take a step back and yield to the cruel reality. That said, was there a better opponent for Mook to showcase his talent against? I’m sure Jerry West doesn’t get easily swayed by a single game, but just imagine what happens if all the Clippers have to do to bolster their production is to send us Harkless and their 2020 first. They suddenly can field this lineup in the playoffs: Beverley-Shamet/Robinson-George-Leonard-Token buyout center with Williams-Robinson/Shamet-Morris-Green/Patterson-Harrell. Crunch time lineup: Williams/Beverley-George-Leonard-Morris-Harrell. How can you stop them? Trade. Mook. Now.

– RJ Barrett (24 pts, 6 rebs, 1 stl, +4 +/-) delivered a great, great performance last night. It was needed, honesly. 24 points on 11 shots is manna from heaven for him, especially considering that he found the time (and the way) to go to the line eleven times and sank nine freebies. A statistical aberration if I have ever seen one for this season, but at the same time it could be good foreboding. I still find his assist numbers (or lack thereof) very worrisome, but I can’t pin it on him. Miller’s no-nonsense attitude made it so that Barrett’s playmaking just can’t get exploited with him in the starting five. I’d like to see him and Mitch command the bench mob, but I don’t know if that’s ever gonna happen. For now let’s revel in his few efficient performances, and circle the dates when the Knicks play against teams that don’t have interior protection. That’s the only flaw in the Clippers’ roster construction, and it’s the only flaw that RJ knows how to exploit for now. It’s still not bad for a 19-year old, you know? For what it’s worth (nothing) RJ’s the third youngest player ever to put a 24/6 on 11 shots or less in NBA history, the other two before him being Dwight Howard and JJJ. Rounding up the top-10 of youngest players to post such a feat are the late Eddie Griffin, Chris Bosh, Andre Drummond, Marquese Chriss (what), Tyler Herro, DeAndre Ayton and Tyrus Thomas. A bit hit-or-miss, but again, let’s just take the good omens out of this.

The bad:

– I don’t have a single Knick having played significant minutes here (Kevin Knox would be the choice, but he played only 6 minutes – while posting a DSJ-like -11 +/-), so I’ll give this spot to the Knicks defense and free throw shooting *ahem* prowess. We lost a game by three and missed 13 free throws. Oh, and we found a way to lose a game where we scored 132 points on a blistering 57% from the field and 52% from three. I’m glad we lost for the aforementioned reasons, but we should still be ashamed we couldn’t snatch a win out of those numbers. Miller didn’t do a great job here, even if he was two PGs short and made the best of what he had.

– Or did he? For a couple minutes out there we witnessed the return of the 4 power forwards hydra. Frank-Knox-Morris-Randle-Gibson. Stop this madness. Paul George can play the two. Kevin Knox has trouble playing the three. Shame on you, Mike Miller.

Fun-sized bits:

– Mitch got his ass handed to him by Harrell (who scored a career high 34 points on 21 shots) but in the end he wasn’t that horrible. His plus/minus (-3) compared to Taj’s (-10) would suggest we would have been better playing him more minutes and giving the Harrell assignment to someone else. Maybe Randle would have been good, since Harrell just exploited Mitch’s pogo stick tendencies and Randle just doesn’t jump on defense at all. That said, two boards in 22 minutes are a disgrace. Mitch, you have to do better. Also: I get that the Clippers have good, switchable defenders on the perimeter, but how come we’re not running at least 15 PnRs with Mitch per game? He doesn’t even have to be the finisher. His sheer threat opens up the lane. Kadeem Allen had the easiest layup in “traffic” of his life just running a simple two-man game with Robinson. Miller, this is your wake up call. I like the job you’re doing, now it’s time to pump it up though.

– I don’t know if it’s a fluke – it probably is – but Frank’s penetrating a bit more. On a scale from 1 to 10 I’d peg him at 3, so wildly insufficient, but he’s made progress. Again, good omens?

– In the first quarter the Clips were whistled for a three seconds violation on defense. We had Frank and Morris on the court but nope, Randle decided he had to shoot the free throw to get himself going (Frank tried to dissuade him but to no avail). Sheed’s right: ball don’t lie. The free throw was deservedly weak and short. Blame’s on the coach, but Julius, being a primadonna’s not your style. Cut that crap and go back at punishing mismatches.

– Wally is really the worst. He has a worse reaction delay than Knox on defense and still finds a way to say the most uninspired, self-evident things about the action that just unfolded, often making things up on the go (“I like Frank’s aggressiveness” after Frank drained a long two in the third – by that time Frank hadn’t even tried a single drive in the game and had already played 15+ minutes). He seems a good guy, but I’d prefer anyone, anything else as our color analyst. Even Dolan himself.

And so, as predicted, we’re 0-2 on the road trip with another two hard games to come. It’s ok to lose them all, anyway. We need a bad record to convince Pills to listen to trade offers. It’s the nearest goal we have. Let’s fulfill it.

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270 comments on “New York Knicks 132 – Los Angeles Clippers 135 – Game Recap

  1. KnickfaninNJ

    Of course I’d like to make a few trades that we win, and I love the Scotch analogy, but I’m still not convinced there is a deal out there that’s better than having fifteen million extra to spend. Suppose we signed Harrell with that money, for example, he’s only 25 after all. Is that worse than getting a late first round pick? I know that if you get an expiring contract back in a Morris deal you can still sign someone, but I just don’t see contracts like that on rumored trade partners.

  2. thenoblefacehumper

    Great ‘cap. I too have some mixed feelings about the NBA’s evolution. I don’t think it’s gotten totally out of hand just yet, but these kinds of games are getting increasingly common. Kirk Goldsberry has some interesting ideas about changing some rules to counter it. I haven’t gotten around to reading his book yet, but I definitely plan on it.

    Re: Morris. Guys. How many god damn times do we need to see this play? How many times does Lucy need to pull the football away?

    I don’t even know what to say anymore. I’m sure this will be the wrong-side-of-thirty market value free agent signing for a terrible Knicks team that works out! If it doesn’t, we can just trade Courtney Lee for a first round pick whenever we want (sorry, I got my absurd justifications for dumbass signings mixed up).

    Anyway, if you really want to sign Marcus Morris this offseason because you’re a glutton for punishment that refuses to learn anything, the Knicks can do so after trading him the exact same way they can if they don’t trade him: offer him the most money.

    This is almost certainly going to be the last long-term deal he he signs. He is not going to give one fuck that the Knicks traded him to a contending team (no matter what he says, I still think the idea that this would piss him off is silly) if they give him the best offer.

    I hate even having to explain that, though, because the idea that we should sign him is absurd in the first place. Honestly, if so many people think this ~25 win team should be signing 31 year olds to market value deals, maybe we just deserve the results we get :(

  3. Farfa Post author

    Well, Harkless is just one of those contracts. And he’s more than expendable for the Clips. So at the very least that’s on the table. What you should hope for is that Portland pulls together a string of wins and suddenly gets really interested in Mook again and offers Bazemore and a pick of their own. From there you open a bidding war. But even if there was only Jerry West trying to get Morris, Harkless and a first/Robinson/Shamet should be enough to entertain very deep trade talks.

  4. thenoblefacehumper

    I’m still not convinced there is a deal out there that’s better than having fifteen million extra to spend

    Man can you just google “NBA expiring contract” or something? Like 8 different posters have explained this already.

    Also, why do we need another $15M on top of the $19.5M we’ll have just by renouncing Ellington/Portis/Gibson assuming a Morris sized contract remains on the books (and we can get more by doing other stuff e.g. trading DSJ, renouncing Bullock, etc.)? Who in the 2020 free agent class do you want to give all this money?

  5. thenamestsam

    We’re not really cap space limited at all this summer. Between Portis’ option and the partial guarantees on Taj, Ellington, Payton and Bullock, we can pretty easily open as much space as we need without making any big sacrifices. And between the weak free agent crop this summer and our desire to save space for the summer of ’21 I can’t see us needing all that space since we’re likely to be targeting primarily rentals again. We’re in fine shape to take on bad salary for next year in a Morris trade and should be able to extract some extra draft pick compensation for doing so.

  6. thenoblefacehumper

    The free agent class is so unexciting this summer that we should be actively looking to take on bad multiyear deals if it means we get extra assets. In fact we should’ve been looking to do that for a long time. Like, the last 7 years or so.

    We don’t have to in order to trade Morris, but we should.

  7. KnickfaninNJ

    If the Clippers wanted to give us a draft pick, Robinson and Harkless for Morris (you need Robinson to make the salaries work) I will concede that is probably a good deal for the Knicks. When I see such a trade, I’ll believe it. Trades like that are always harder in reality than on paper.

  8. ess-dog

    But conversely, no one is in a rush to dump money if there are no good free agents to go after this summer.

    It really seems like it’s down to the Clippers and Rockets and maybe Denver as the teams that can trade for Morris (unless there’s a multi-player/team trade). I’d go for an expiring, a youngish player and a 1st rd pick and call it a day.

  9. KnickfaninNJ

    Philadelphia is also reported as being interested in Morris. I don’t know what they can offer, but i guess they could find something.

  10. djphan

    the FA crop this offseason is pretty weak… but there is one guy we should be aggressively pursuing and that’s vanvleet….

    he’s still very young and whether it’s randle/mitch or draftpick/mitch…. we will need a good primary facilitator to make two big lineups work…. we’ve already seen some okish returns with someone only as good as payton.. and as rj matures he can maybe share that load also but we do need to find out fairly soon what a successful frontcourt looks like on the knicks…

  11. Stratomatic: Frequently wrong, but never in doubt

    @2

    If you can’t see by now that no star caliber free agents come to bad teams and building almost exclusively via draft early in the process is a partially luck based 5-10 year endeavor, I’m not sure what to say. The Philly model can’t be duplicated very easily, they are still not where they want to be despite the most extreme version of it (6-7 years later), and the NBA is littered with teams that failed badly trying to rebuild via draft only.

    If we trade Morris for a pick, we almost certainly should try to combine that pick with another asset and trade for a better player/age fit than Morris. As long as that option in on the table I’m good.

    To use that pick to draft some player in the future that will probably not be as good as Morris and then wait 5 years for him to get there makes no sense.

    The idea is to get BETTER via sensible transactions. It is not to keep pushing the target date for being good further and further into the future so we can keep drafting young slugs and complain about how they suck for 5 years.

    If you are thinking about re-signing Morris you are doing it because you think he quickens the development of the young players and makes the team better and more attractive to free agents. You only do it IF you fully expect him to play productive basketball for the duration of the contract and because the picks you are being offered have less value than what Morris adds. You don’t just do it.

  12. Bruno Almeida

    If anything, I would be very happy if the Knicks took extra salary for next season expiring in 2021, because that prevents then from making any stupid desperation signing on the worst free agency class in recent history. Cap space for next summer is useless as the best available player, and that’s not a typo, is probably going to be DeMar DeRozan.

    Mills and Perry have already shown they’re not looking to get extra assets by absorbing bad contracts, so having cap space in a year where there are 0 interesting FAs is totally useless.

  13. ess-dog

    Philly can’t offer an expiring or even a two-year contract, so idk how that gets done unless a 3rd team is involved, but who would want to take on Horford or Richardson? I just don’t see that happening.

    I’d go after Vanvleet, since we can easily make room for him by declining a few of our new vets. The question is, will he be worth the money it would take to get him?

  14. bidiong

    I don’t understand how anyone that posts on these threads and absorb all the information our smart posters put out there can conclude that using our cap space temporarily to get draft picks is something we shouldn’t be doing.

    Renting next year’s cap space to enable us to get 5 year cost controlled assets is exactly what we should be doing if we want to have the cap space later to be able to bring in the max players.

  15. Bruno Almeida

    All I want is for this team to not become the Detroit Pistons east or Charlotte Hornets north. The “just sign good veterans” thing is done every year in the league by multiple teams and it almost never works, it worked for Toronto because they have a god as their GM who found incredible value everywhere and found the perfect trade to use the assets he collected. It’s kinda working for Miami on the back of unsustainable and unexpected production from UFAs and fringe prospects plus another unlikely trade.

    We can’t expect to replicate the Lakers or Clippers model, as they’re obviously related to Los Angeles being a thing, we can’t replicate what the Celtics did because Billy King doesn’t have a job anymore and the Rockets plan also relies on finding an incredibly undervalued star that might be somewhat replicable, if Towns is ever available and somehow we get him, but its unlikely as hell too. We can hope for a Bucks situation, but then we have to find a Giannis and well, it’s been proven that it’s easier to find those guys at the top of the lottery instead of the bottom. The same goes for what the Nuggets did, with Jokic and then a bunch of really smart small decisions, but then again, that includes finding a legit all NBA talent through the draft.

    Re-signing guys like Morris is much more Detroit than it is Toronto.

  16. GianaDani

    Philly blogs are talking about Tobias Harris and a 1st for DSjr, Ellington and Morris.

    Perry and Steve scare me, if they’re making this decision.

  17. thenoblefacehumper

    I mean Strat thought the Courtney Lee signing was a stroke of genius so not gonna lie it’s kind of encouraging to see him disagree with me on the topic of 30+ year old free agent signings

  18. Z-man

    All you need to do to change today’s game is shrink the diameter of the rim until league average from 3 goes down to .333. All of a sudden, the midrange and post games would be back in vogue and you wouldn’t have to re-design the court or any arena seating. And dunkers could still dunk their brains out.

    The game was best when 3-pointers were conceded except to the Dale Ellis’s of the world.

  19. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    they are still not where they want to be despite the most extreme version of it (6-7 years later)

    Bro, they’ve had three GMs since they started The Process, and the first one was the only architect of that particular management approach. How can you possibly mount this argument?

  20. cgreene

    Wholeheartedly agree with Z-Man on this. Simple start would be to eliminate the shorter corner 3.

    Has anyone done any research on margin of victory since the increased usage of the 3 point shot? I wonder if there are fewer close games now. Seems like it to me. But who knows.

  21. Hubert

    I hate even having to explain that, though, because the idea that we should sign him is absurd in the first place. Honestly, if so many people think this ~25 win team should be signing 31 year olds to market value deals, maybe we just deserve the results we get :(

    There is a larger debate that I don’t want to relitigate, i.e. should we try to be a 35-40 win team. Since the flattening of lottery odds and superstar’s being attracted to teams with solid foundations, I’m more inclined to not stay on the bottom for too long. But I respect the opposite position and there’s no need to argue it.

    I still think we should adhere to general rebuilding principles and if there are good draft picks to be acquired with our cap space, we should definitely prioritize that over signing Morris. We’re going to have a ton of cap space, though; I think there’s room for both.

    I think bringing Morris back makes basketball sense, even at 31 years old, if Randle is traded and we use Morris as a stretch 4. I look at him in combination with Knox, though. Knox needs to develop into that stretch 4 role, but he’s years away. I think if you signed Morris for 2 years, his decline and Knox’s (hopeful) ascent would coincide.

    If you want a team that doesn’t suck next year, having Robinson and a backup center at the 5 with Morris backed up by Knox at the 4 is a decent start.

  22. thenoblefacehumper

    My last post laid on the snark a little too hard, but it just gets tiring seeing the folks who have been wrong about everything speak so condescendingly.

    The Philadelphia 76ers:

    1) Took the eventual champions to 7 games last season and lost on a miracle shot
    2) Are working on their third straight 50+ win season
    3) Have Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons signed for the long haul
    4) Could get a god damn war chest of assets if they ever decide to blow it up or tweak it heavily
    5) Had Hinkie’s plan actively sabotaged by a meddling owner (he wanted Porzingis, who you guys claim to love) and subsequent GM (the Fultz trade was the most damaging move they’ve made in The Process era). They had an opportunity to draft Simmons, Embiid, Porzingis, and Tatum.

    Does this really look so unappealing to a Knicks fan?

    I mean we’ve seen how the whole “try to get a little better all the time by signing middling free agents” thing works, with the best case study being the New York Knicks for the past twenty years.

    Yeah, I know, the only problem is we didn’t sign the “right” free agents, but also god forbid you ever identify who the “right” free agents are despite being asked to do so all the time.

    And I’m not even saying we should avoid the free agent market at all costs! There are good arguments for signing guys like Randle, DAR, FVV, etc. The posters here who are generally correct about things never hesitate to point those out.

    But a 31 year old who is nothing particularly special (I know I’m not allowed to cite the #FakeStats, so how about the fact that he’s been on 5 teams)? For a team on pace to win 22 games? For the love of god how many times do we need to try this?!?!?!

  23. Farfa Post author

    The game was best when 3-pointers were conceded except to the Dale Ellis’s of the world.

    I totally agree.

    Nobody told me that I’d become an old curmudgeon at 36.

  24. Owen

    I don’t understand how anyone that posts on these threads and absorb all the information our smart posters put out there can conclude that using our cap space temporarily to get draft picks is something we shouldn’t be doing.

    Yep. I don’t get it.

    Great cap Farfa

  25. thenoblefacehumper

    Since the flattening of lottery odds and superstar’s being attracted to teams with solid foundations

    THEY WERE ATTRACTED TO TEAMS THAT MADE GOOD DRAFT PICKS, LARGELY BECAUSE THEY TOOK ON SALARY DUMPS FOR SURPLUS PICKS

    Edit: I’m on break until the 15th. I’m happy to take you up on the drink + Knicks game whenever works for you :)

  26. Dink

    Strat really clings to the idea of draft picks having to suck for 5+ years before they get good. But when you look back to the 2018 draft there are already a number of guys who are already quality starters, at a minimum. Luka, Trae, Carter, SGA, JJJ. These aren’t ‘old’ rooks either, I think every one of those guys was 20 or younger when drafted. It’s the same thing going back to 2017 or 2016.

    I actually don’t think he believes this though. It’s more about his bizarre need to justify Phil’s decision making and he’s using Frank (+ KP) as a proxy.

    Strat’s a gardener who was duped into buying magic beans. Planted them suckers seasons ago and finally sees a sprout popping thru. And now he won’t shut up about how beautiful that French corpse flower is gonna be when it finally blooms.

  27. bobneptune

    There are 5 teams in the west fighting for the #8 seed someone should be interested in making a move to improve. I’m sure Mn wants to make the playoffs to keep KAT happy. Randle is young and improves them and Dieng only has one year after this one. Let Mn kick in their #1 this year and keep KAT happy.

    Morris and Portis for Batum’s awful next year contract plus WHG and this year’s #1 gets CHO into the playoffs and save the notoriously cheap Jordan 27M next year.

    Morris would be perfect om the Bucks and they own IND’s #1 this year which should be late teens.

    The more bites you take at the draft apple the more chance you have to get a hit (with reasonable management)…..

  28. thenoblefacehumper

    Strat really clings to the idea of draft picks having to suck for 5+ years before they get good

    As you say later in the post, I don’t think it’s a genuine belief of his. It’s not based in any evidence. It’s just what he has to say in order to justify the ideas that Kristaps Porzingis is a $31M AAV player and Frank Ntilikina is a stud just waiting to be unleashed.

    In fact, the reason we keep drafting guys who aren’t good and may never become good is because our draft picks are generally mediocre because we refuse to stop signing all the shitty middling free agents.

  29. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    Strat’s next move is to call Abraham Lincoln an ineffective strategist because he signed the Emancipation Proclamation but subsequent Presidents and Congresses fucked up Reconstruction for black Americans

  30. Bruno Almeida

    @26

    That’s it. One of the most absurd things strat parrots every time is this bullshit argument. We’re probably in the era where very young players have been most productive ever, outside of the mega stars like LeBron who are always productive by year 2 or 3. It’s just a way to keep the Frank Ntilikina unreasonable arguments rolling.

    At this point discussion has left the reasonable realm and turned into sticking to your guns for personal reasons, and that’s not interesting at all. The most interesting minds on this board are always just responding to the same crazy arguments from the same people and that makes the overall quality of discussion much, much worse than what it used to be, at least for me.

  31. Bruno Almeida

    @27

    I like the idea of trading with Charlotte a lot. Maybe they would be interested in Randle over Morris? Batum’s contract is the perfect piece to get attached to a first, even if it’s a future first down the line, and Charlotte has a good chance of getting the 7th or 8th seed if they add Randle.

  32. GoNYGoNYGo - Dolan must sell

    The idea of trading away our non-prospects for more picks and bad contracts is OK as long as those contracts are short term or the bad contracts become less bad because of increases in the max contract. A bad contract assumes 2 more years at least. I would jump on a bad contract that was off the books in 2 years.

  33. Hubert

    THEY WERE ATTRACTED TO TEAMS THAT MADE GOOD DRAFT PICKS, LARGELY BECAUSE THEY TOOK ON SALARY DUMPS FOR SURPLUS PICKS

    Again, I think that should be priority #1. If it’s Morris or taking on dead salary with a pick attached, I take the dead salary all day.

    There’s obviously two conversations going on here, and my position isn’t the same as Strat’s. I just agree that Morris makes sense on the court. But I think that we should trade him, then use our space to acquire as many picks as possible this summer, and then if there’s room left over I would bring him back for at most 2 years with high AAV.

    Edit: I’m on break until the 15th. I’m happy to take you up on the drink + Knicks game whenever works for you :)

    I’m down and so is Zach. I’ll email him. Tuesday, Jan 14th at Milwaukee at 8pm looks good to me.

  34. Hubert

    I really just want to see what this team looks like with no Randle, a competent PG, two young wings, Morris at the 4 and Mitchell at the 5.

    I would like to see it right now with Payton + Frank + Barrett + Morris + Robinson. If we got someone like Edwards from Georgia in the draft this year, that would be even better next year. Eventually, hopefully, Knox could take that role over from Morris.

  35. E

    I wouldn’t out of hand reject the idea of taking Richardson’s contract on. He’s only 26 and he doesn’t make *that* much money. Thirty-one-ish over 3 (only two more after this year) isn’t that much. Facts and circumstances.

  36. d-mar

    The Morris situation will be a true test for current management.

    First, they’ve gotta decide internally to move him before the trade deadline

    Second, they need to tell the rest of the league they have no interest in moving him

    Third, they need to be shrewd negotiators and not jump at the first offer. Ideally, create a mini bidding war among playoff teams or borderline playoff teams to jack up his price a little

    Am I confident Millsperry can execute this strategy? Uh, no. )-:

  37. E

    Morris would be perfect om the Bucks and they own IND’s #1 this year which should be late teens.

    This is the trade I want and Pills have to not let themselves get talked in to MIL’s own 1.

  38. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    There is a larger debate that I don’t want to relitigate, i.e. should we try to be a 35-40 win team. Since the flattening of lottery odds and superstar’s being attracted to teams with solid foundations, I’m more inclined to not stay on the bottom for too long. But I respect the opposite position and there’s no need to argue it.

    All that matters is building the foundation. 15-win teams should theoretically be unable to remain a 15-win team if they draft productive players, no? So eventually, yeah, you must become a 35-win team — off of the backs of those players, not the stopgap veterans you overpay — to show that your tanking has yielded some fruit. And if you do it right, over half your team should be on rookie contracts or bargain deals (Lou Williams, e.g.) so you have some cap space to buy the great FAs. Or you should have enough surplus draft assets to trade for the Paul Georges and Anthony Davises when they’re out there. It’s complicated in practice, mostly in the closed-information game of trade targets and pre-draft scouting, but the Knicks haven’t done anything remotely close to trying yet. The only thing I was encouraged about was the lack of long-term veteran deals, but if they’re just going to let them walk for nothing, it’s all wasted potential.

    If you stay on the bottom too long, it means that you (1) drafted busts in the top-10 or (2) drafted injured and therefore unproven players, a la Embiid, who have yet to reach their potential. That’s either (1) failure or (2) a highly risky position. None of us advocate for sustained losing if it doesn’t bring back superstars on the rise.

  39. alsep73

    I will say that the one part of the job Perry has seemed decent at is trades. But “seemed” is doing a lot of heavy lifting in that sentence, I’ll admit.

  40. E

    but the Knicks haven’t done anything remotely close to trying yet.

    Yes, they have, they just haven’t drafted well enough and haven’t had any luck in the lottery. They’ve had the 3, 4, 8, and 9 picks in the last five years. They traded the 4 pick, a very valuable asset that at one point could have brought something like Jaylen Brown, the 3 pick, and another lottery pick, for a speck shell of that return. The guy they picked at 3 is a very good prospect. They fucked up the 9 pick, most likely, and picked a project at 8 over better alternatives.

    The Porzingis trade is still the primary crippler. You simply can’t trade an asset that valuable (*) for that petty a return when you’re still rebuilding. If Phil had been allowed to trade him on draft night 2017, things would look completely different around here.

    The only thing really to do now is to wait another draft or two, keep all your assets ready to pounce if a young star/superstar wants to bolt, and hope for some luck. There are no shortcuts and most rebuilding projects fail or only marginally succeed.

    (*) Note: This has nothing to do with how good he actually is.

  41. E

    If you stay on the bottom too long, it means that you (1) drafted busts in the top-10 or (2) drafted injured and therefore unproven players, a la Embiid, who have yet to reach their potential.

    Or, even worse, like the Knicks, you hit on a top 10 pick and then hissy fit traded him for pennies on the dollar.

  42. Early Bird

    I’m fine with taking on longterm salary dumps if the pick compensation is good enough, but we shouldn’t be moving Morris for those players. That’s what Taj, Portis, etc are for.

    Ideally someone with available draft picks sooner than LAC is interested. I think 2026 is the first year they can move a pick(??).

    I liked the offseason because I thought the Knicks would use these contracts to acquire picks (they’re perfect for it). I had that notion quickly expelled when we didn’t take on Harkless for a first.

    Even if CHA is interested in Randle he’s last on our trade list (of the mercs) because he has the longest contract and we have the most time to find a deal. We NEED to move Morris because he’s just deadweight otherwise.

    My guess:
    Pills waits till the deadline to see where we are in the rankings. I still think our schedule is weak enough that we could make a run. Ideally, we lose out and teams have gotten desperate enough to sweeten the pot.

    Tobias Harris netted 2 firsts last year. Although Harris is younger, Morris is more versatile and is having a better season. We can and should collect.

  43. Bruno Almeida

    I wouldn’t be against getting Josh Richardson back, I think he’s a good player and his contract is super reasonable, plus he’s young enough to make sense as a piece. I just don’t think Philly would trade him for Morris, they don’t even play the same position. It only makes sense if Philly thinks Thybulle is ready to start, but they would be incredibly shallow at the guards.

    What annoys me the most about this discussion is that if we only had really sucked ONCE we would have a guy like Doncic or Trae Young and we would be figuring out how to build around him. Even Tatum, Ayton, Fox or JJJ would do it for me, hell, even Lonzo Ball or WCJ or Marvin Bagley or Jonathan Isaac. But no, we drafted two below replacement level players who also seem to have much lower ceilings and now people want to repeat the same damn script all over again just so we can watch 5 more useless wins against the Wizards and the Hawks.

  44. KnickfaninNJ

    I agree Alsep about Perry and trades. He hasn’t made horrible deals and you can argue that we won some of his deals. His deals also don’t get immediately panned by pundits. If we do trade Morris, I think it’s realistic to hope he gets a good return. Morris has a lot of value to a contender.

    As for suggestions like this

    Philly blogs are talking about Tobias Harris and a 1st for DSjr, Ellington and Morris.

    My experience is that fans of a team most often propose trades that are unrealistically good for their team. I hope that is what this is a case of.

  45. thenoblefacehumper

    They fucked up the 9 pick, most likely, and picked a project at 8 over better alternatives.

    …and they had these unexciting picks because they won 31 and 29 games, because they signed a bunch of middling free agents instead of taking on salary dumps/filling out the roster with flyers.

    A few more losses here and there and we could have Fox instead of Ntilikina, and Wendell Carter instead of Knox. Does anyone except Strat (on the grounds that Ntilikina is better than Fox) think that would’ve been a bad trade off? Are the memories from Courtney Lee, Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah, Lance Thomas, Brandon Jennings, and Tim Hardaway Jr. really that valuable to you?

  46. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    Or, even worse, like the Knicks, you hit on a top 10 pick and then hissy fit traded him for pennies on the dollar.

    If that’s a reference to the Porzingis trade, uh… nah?

  47. E

    A few more losses here and there and we could have Fox instead of Ntilikina, and Wendell Carter instead of Knox.

    You don’t know that because you can’t just go back over a draft after the fact knowing who turned out good and say the team would have picked that player. And they could have had Mitchell and SGA, picked below, anyway.

    The ping-pong balls haven’t been kind, either. You’re looking for control over a process that has a shit-ton of luck built into it. That control doesn’t really exist.

  48. Hubert

    All that matters is building the foundation. 15-win teams should theoretically be unable to remain a 15-win team if they draft productive players, no? So eventually, yeah, you must become a 35-win team — off of the backs of those players, not the stopgap veterans you overpay — to show that your tanking has yielded some fruit. And if you do it right, over half your team should be on rookie contracts or bargain deals (Lou Williams, e.g.) so you have some cap space to buy the great FAs. Or you should have enough surplus draft assets to trade for the Paul Georges and Anthony Davises when they’re out there. It’s complicated in practice, mostly in the closed-information game of trade targets and pre-draft scouting, but the Knicks haven’t done anything remotely close to trying yet. The only thing I was encouraged about was the lack of long-term veteran deals, but if they’re just going to let them walk for nothing, it’s all wasted potential.

    If you stay on the bottom too long, it means that you (1) drafted busts in the top-10 or (2) drafted injured and therefore unproven players, a la Embiid, who have yet to reach their potential. That’s either (1) failure or (2) a highly risky position. None of us advocate for sustained losing if it doesn’t bring back superstars on the rise.

    I agree with all this but I do think you can mix in 1 or 2 stopgap veterans to make the game easier for the kids as long as they make sense and aren’t on long term deals.

    The Knicks went with, what, 6 stopgap veterans? That was a little silly. But if all we had were Payton, Morris, the kids, and took a bunch of fliers on D league talent, that would be ok with me and I think it would make the kids better.

  49. thenoblefacehumper

    Porzingis is having a shitty season and is now dealing with an unspecified knee injury. I’d be surprised if Dallas could recoup two firsts for him at the moment, and the guy ain’t exactly known for picking it up as the season progresses.

    Also, the hissy fit was on his part. He wanted out, and while we did have RFA rights there were a lot of things he could’ve done to make that a headache for us (e.g. sign a 2 +1).

    It’s been reported by both Lowe and Begley that he was primarily upset with Phil Jackson and the new guys mostly just couldn’t recover from that, so if you’re really upset about losing Mr. November, blame The Genius Who Has Forgotten More About Basketball Than Any Of Us Will Ever Know.

    I personally don’t care, and I’m satisfied with the return we got. It’s kind of like the middling free agent question: what makes you think this is the injury prone, inefficient player we should give a huge contract?

  50. E

    If that’s a reference to the Porzingis trade, uh… nah?

    You can continue to say that all you want, and continue to argue the irrelevancy of how good he actually is all you want, but the simple fact of the matter is they got pennies on the dollar for the asset.

    If you have a stock you think is worth $50 and a bunch of other market participants think it’s worth $300, you didn’t get a good deal if you sold it at $55. This is really simple stuff.

  51. KnickfaninNJ

    I just looked up Tobias Harris’s salary, $32M going up to $39M in 2023-2024 when he will be 32. Wow. His stats aren’t that impressive. No wonder Philadelphia fans would rather have Morris at $15M. I’d rather have Morris at $15M too

  52. E

    so if you’re really upset about losing Mr. November, blame The Genius Who Has Forgotten More About Basketball Than Any Of Us Will Ever Know.

    You guys can continue on with your obsessions and your cultifyings of various GMs as much as you want, but it still doesn’t change the fact that they got pennies on the dollar for the asset. The asset had a far greater market value than the return received. How good he actually is now couldn’t be more irrelevant. It’s barely even an interesting question anymore, but carry on with the obsessing and the cultifying.

  53. thenoblefacehumper

    You don’t know that because you can’t just go back over a draft after the fact knowing who turned out good and say the team would have picked that player. And they could have had Mitchell and SGA, picked below, anyway.

    Come on man, this isn’t a hard concept. The higher you pick, the wider the player pool is, and the more likely you are to draft a good player. This has been demonstrated empirically a million times and is also just common sense.

    You can play the “you can draft good players with low picks” game all you want, but nothing will change the fact that the best players in the NBA tend to come from the top of the draft.

    Obviously you should take every pick extremely seriously and try to find the Giannises and Butlers and Mitches of the world, but there’s literally no reason whatsoever to sabotage the position of the picks you’re in the name of signing Courtney Lee or Marcus Morris.

  54. Hubert

    You simply can’t trade an asset that valuable (*)

    (*) Note: This has nothing to do with how good he actually is.

    E I’m going to go on a limb here and disagree with you: I think how good Porzingis actually is does have something to do with how valuable an asset he is.

  55. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    Porzingis declared in a not-so-quiet way that he wanted a trade. He hadn’t played basketball in nearly a year. He was due a max extension offer that offseason. And then there were sexual assault allegations on top of all of that.

    His PIPM this year is sitting at 0.01 and he has four years left on his $156M deal. Dennis Smith Jr. is a horrible player but the fact that they got draft assets for Porzingis while offloading all of the risk and the Hardaway deal? C’mon.

    I just looked up Tobias Harris’s salary, $32M going up to $39M in 2023-2024 when he will be 32. Wow. His stats aren’t that impressive.

    Strat, should we blame Hinkie for this one?

    The Harris deal is an enormous overpay but the Sixers will be so capped out that it won’t matter. Similar to the D’angelo Russell deal with the Dubs: weird fit and definite overpay, but it’s either pay the man or replace him with a vet’s min.

  56. E

    I just looked up Tobias Harris’s salary, $32M going up to $39M in 2023-2024 when he will be 32. Wow. His stats aren’t that impressive. No wonder Philadelphia fans would rather have Morris at $15M. I’d rather have Morris at $15M too

    Tobias Harris is pretty much the poster boy for the Pills Job Saving Adventure Tour that can’t be permitted to happen.

  57. thenoblefacehumper

    You guys can continue on with your obsessions and your cultifyings of various GMs as much as you want, but it still doesn’t change the fact that they got pennies on the dollar for the asset. The asset had a far greater market value than the return received. How good he actually is now couldn’t be more irrelevant.

    [citation needed]

    It’s not like the only people aware that a max contract for Porzingis was a questionable proposition were on Knickerblogger (plenty of us said so before he was traded). Dallas offered two firsts, the ability to dump salary, and a flyer in DSJ. I’m not sure why you’re so positive that was a gross underpayment for a guy who was rehabbing from a torn ACL, questionably productive, and about to sign a 5/$156M deal.

  58. Owen

    And we could have Fox instead of Ntilikina, and Wendell Carter instead of Knox.

    Seriously. And KP has a 51% ts% spacing the floor.

  59. E

    draft assets for Porzingis while offloading all of the risk and the Hardaway deal? C’mon.

    They got shitty draft assets and the risk of the Hardaway deal wasn’t high. Normal teams don’t append average-ish contracts to young top 15/20 assets who the rest of the league (rightly or wrongly) love. Normal teams don’t take the first offer they get and trade the asset, WHO WASN’T EVEN GOING TO PLAY ANYWAY, weeks before the trade deadline.

    It was poorly done in basically every particular and it’s set the team back years. It’s that simple. All the rest of the arguments — was Phil a good GM, is KP worth a max, is KP a prima donna, etc etc — are just noise.

  60. E

    It’s not like the only people aware that a max contract for Porzingis was a questionable proposition were on Knickerblogger (plenty of us said so before he was traded).

    Whether or not we think he was worth a max contract has nothing to do with his asset value around the league, where obviously a bunch of teams did think he was worth a max contract. What is so hard to understand about this? If you’ve rightly valued the asset at $50 and a bunch of people are willing to give you $300, you don’t sell it for $50 and then pat yourself on the back for how great you are at valuation. You sell it for $300 and silently chuckle and move on to the next mark.

    This. Is. Not. Complicated.

  61. Hubert

    A few more losses here and there and we could have Fox instead of Ntilikina, and Wendell Carter instead of Knox.

    Don’t forget: in one of the cruel ironies of all time, we actually missed out on Fox by a few wins.

    We won 31 games in 2016-17. Sacramento won 32 but the lottery gods smiled on the team with the 8th worst record and they jumped up to 3. (They ended up picking 5th because Philadelphia had swap rights on their pick.)

  62. TheClashFan

    Would’ve, could’ve, should’ve. Whatever. How about the “brainstrust” make some smart moves right now?

    The Tobias Harris rumor is a bit scary b/c the might be the kind of move they would do. If they entertain that, I hope they look to bring a third team in to move Harris there. But, they won’t do that.

    My modest hope is that they will just sell off Morris for the best 1st rounder they can get. Maybe Mills, who seems to have cockroach-like abilities to survive through disaster, might come to the conclusion that he can only save his job by talking Dolan into a real rebuild. Maybe? Nah.

  63. E

    E I’m going to go on a limb here and disagree with you: I think how good Porzingis actually is does have something to do with how valuable an asset he is.

    No, it really doesn’t. Most of the league valued KP at a clear max contract guy and were willing to provide a trade package commensurate with that valuation. The Knicks got … cough … a return other than that.

  64. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    Firstly, any draft assets are valuable to a bottom-5 team that’s going to lose much of its win output in this coming offseason. Second, the draft assets are only poor because of this totally foreseeable development:

    http://bkref.com/tiny/9eEsA

    For single seasons; played in the NBA/BAA; in the regular season; from 1979-80 to 2019-20; from age 18 to 20; requiring Minutes Played >= 1000; sorted by descending Box Plus/Minus

    See that? That’s called “bad luck.” I might see your point if Porzingis were the reason they went from a 19th-ranked SRS to 3rd in just one offseason. But he most certainly is not (and their defense has basically stayed the same YOY).

  65. thenoblefacehumper

    What is so hard to understand about this?

    Well for starters, you didn’t answer my question at all.

    Why are you so sure Porzingis had value that exceeded the return? Where are you getting this idea you keep stating as if it’s a fact? Do you have any kind of source whatsoever?

    He hadn’t played a game all season, he hadn’t been been very productive in the seasons he did play, he had already been accused of sexual assault (it wasn’t public yet, but the Mavs apparently knew), and he was about to sign a monster contract.

  66. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    This. Is. Not. Complicated.

    Link us to an article with a trade package that the Knicks declined. I’ll wait.

    edit: jinx

  67. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    I’m guessing that E still has a stock of bitcoin he’s waiting to sell at the perfect moment.

  68. E

    Link us to an article with a trade package that the Knicks declined. I’ll wait.

    They didn’t shop him, as pretty much everyone involved confirmed. His reported approximate draft night 2017 return was ten times what they got back, maybe more.

    Torn ACLs are frequent in the NBA. They barely dissipate asset value, if they dissipate it at all. His value was WAY higher than they got back.

    Shilling for this trade is just beyond weird. It can only be arguing for argument’s sake or making tangential arguments using this trade as a vehicle. It was an awful trade.

  69. Hubert

    Most of the league valued KP at a clear max contract guy and were willing to provide a trade package commensurate with that valuation.

    See, this is where how good Porzingis actually is comes into play. It speaks to the foundation of your argument.

    Most of us don’t believe the above statement to be true. I know some teams did, but I think there was a lot of caution about maxing him. I give Perry credit for finding a team that would max him and getting a lot of value from them.

  70. Owen

    Looks like the Thunder traded Gallinari for Kuzma and Bradley.

    edit: I thought that was confirmed but appears it was some twitter head posting a rumor.

    Tommy Beer I think mentioned it, or someone responding to him, but the Thunder aren’t much worse than they were last year with a billion fresh picks in their pockets.

  71. d-mar

    Shilling for this trade is just beyond weird.

    Well, pretty much everyone on this board gets behind management no matter what they do.

    It’s the reason we all come here, to validate our unbending belief in the competence of the Knicks organization.

  72. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    I have no idea what Gallinari brings on defense at this point, but holy hell, they’re going to march out a lineup of:

    LeBron
    KCP
    Gallinari
    Davis
    McGee/Howard

    Good luck outscoring that group with KCP and Gallinari shooting ~40% from downtown.

    edit: nvm, but Bradley and Kuzma for any productive shooter would be a coup

  73. thenoblefacehumper

    It can only be arguing for argument’s sake or making tangential arguments using this trade as a vehicle. It was an awful trade.

    You’re out here peddling a completely evidence-free assertion and then you say this when you’re called out for it. Kind of your MO at this point.

    Who knows how legit the whole “didn’t shop him” thing is, but there definitely was a timing element to the trade because if Porzingis went nuclear publicly his value would’ve absolutely tanked.

    What we got back was objectively good value for an injury prone guy with a .510 TS% making $31M for the next 5 years. I’ll ask one more time; do you have any evidence whatsoever, beyond your completely subjective speculation that somehow hasn’t been confirmed in the 11 months since the trade, that we could’ve gotten more?

  74. Farfa Post author

    LeBron
    KCP
    Gallinari
    Davis
    McGee/Howard

    The love I have for Gallo would cover up both my hatred for the Lakers and my distaste for LeBron.

    Hope for Gallo that it happens.

  75. geo

    just finished the recap – great work as always farfa…

    i’m really enjoying the team performance improvement that miller has brought to the team…he still has some more work to do though – as evidenced with that randall tech free throw…if everyone at home noticed that – it should never happen again…

    so, february 6 is the nba trade deadline…it’ll be interesting to see what our front office does, or doesn’t, do…

    i was sure beverley would steal the ball from frank 2 or 3 times at least…he baited him in to a couple of silly fouls, but, frank’s handle is changing a bit…he’s much looser with his ball movement now…

    somebody somewhere i believe is teaching our young mister frank how to dance…

  76. Early Bird

    You maximize trade value through leverage, but the Knicks had no leverage with an injured KP who was near free agency, made his animosity towards the Knicks public, and had a rape allegation awaiting publication.

    Better players have returned less than an unprotected 1st round pick, a top-10 protected pick, the ability to dump two bad contracts, and take a shot at DSJR who was shooting better that year.

    Look at CHI trading Butler with the 16th draft pick (?!) to MIN for Lavine, Dunn, and the 7th pick.

    Look at IND trading Paul George for Sabonis (after a crappy rookie year) and Oladipo. George had signaled his intent to leave, so IND couldn’t get a return. Compare that with the leverage OKC had in flipping George to LAC when Kawhi effectively came with him.

    What exactly should the Knicks have gotten for KP??

  77. ess-dog

    it still doesn’t change the fact that they got pennies on the dollar for the asset.

    That was entirely the fault of the torn ACL. Sure, you could argue they should’ve traded him before the injury, but the return they got post-injury was fine.

  78. thenamestsam

    I hope at this point everyone is copy-pasting their Porzingis trade takes into a document on their desktop because we’re going to be reading and writing these same exact posts in a new thread at least once a month for probably the next ten years.

    For the record I think the trade is maddeningly hard to evaluate even in retrospect because such a significant part of the value (maybe 30-40%) was in terms of the cleared salary. That’s really unusual – the normal structure is using picks to get off bad money, not using valuable young players to get off bad money. That doesn’t make it inherently bad – the cap space had the potential to be massively valuable (healthy KD+Kyrie) – but it is unusual and it obviously didn’t work out. The reason it’s so hard to fairly evaluate is that we have no idea (and never will) what commitment they thought they had from Durant and why it didn’t come to fruition.

  79. thenoblefacehumper

    It’s worth noting the Knicks easily could’ve used the cleared salary to get picks from Harkless and Iguodala (and I said at the time of the trade this was a possibility if they missed out on Kyrie + KD). They didn’t because they are stupid, but if you’re evaluating the trade purely in a vacuum it should probably be considered.

  80. Stratomatic: Frequently wrong, but never in doubt

    I mean Strat thought the Courtney Lee signing was a stroke of genius so not gonna lie it’s kind of encouraging to see him disagree with me on the topic of 30+ year old free agent signings

    I know you can’t help yourself, but at least you are consistent.

    First of all, I am not opposed to trading Morris for a 1st round pick. I am opposed to trading him for late 1st round pick and then drafting some 18-19 year old kid next year. I’d trade the pick as part of a package to try to get a better player than Morris.

    I obviously never thought signing Lee was a great move. I thought it was fine if the goal was to slowly improve the team, make it more attractive to free agents, and build a team with a combination of free agent signings, trades, and draft picks over time. I still think that’s the right way to build a team.

    If we didn’t trade Lee, right now we’d have him on the bench instead of one of these other veterans and he would be coming off the books (instead of these other guys coming off the books). Noah would also be coming off instead of on it for a couple of more years.

    Trying to build a team with all draft picks has the downside of making you so bad (as we were last year) that no free agents want to come and if you try to trade for a player, his agent tells you he wants nothing to do with you. That’s how you wind up being 4 years into a rebuild, still terrible, and still in a position where no one will come to play for you unless you overpay them.

    Until you understand that you have to be good to attract stars, you can’t understand why you have to try to get better.

    If you don’t mind waiting forever and are willing to depend on some luck, drafting will work fine.

    Otherwise, you should try to build a winning team and winning culture with cap flexibility and good contracts, make yourself attractive to star players, and then use free agency, trades, and draft picks to get better. Not everyone has to be under 25.

  81. thenoblefacehumper

    I am opposed to trading him for late 1st round pick and then drafting some 18-19 year old kid next year.

    True, it would be a shame if we did this because no one drafted at the age of 18 or 19 ever turns out to be a good player. The Doncic guy is merely benefitting from the spacing generated when Kristaps Porzingis misses threes (just ignore what he’s done with Porzingis out because reasons).

    If we didn’t trade Lee, right now we’d have him on the bench instead of one of these other veterans and he would be coming off the books (instead of these other guys coming off the books). Noah would also be coming off instead of on it for a couple of more years.

    Yeah, if we still had Lee he’d be coming off the books four years after he signed (and four years nary even an 8th seed) during which time we could’ve used $12M to do any number of things that would’ve actually benefitted the long-term position of the team. I am not sure how this helps your argument.

    That’s how you wind up being 4 years into a rebuild, still terrible, and still in a position where no one will come to play for you unless you overpay them.

    We are not 4 years into a rebuild. That would count the season Phil Jackson signed a million shitty players to long-term deals and won 31 games as a “rebuilding” season. We are in the second season of a genuine rebuild that we actively sabotaged with more shitty veterans. This batch doesn’t have the onerous contracts for which The Genius was so fond, so we have that going for us.

    If you don’t mind waiting forever and are willing to depend on some luck, drafting will work fine.

    We haven’t had a sustainably good team in 20 years so forgive me if I can wait a bit for a much higher chance of getting one than we’d have with the “try to get a little better with market value free agents” strategy we’ve already been employing forever.

  82. Stratomatic: Frequently wrong, but never in doubt

    @82

    The cap space part of the KP deal was always a bit of a farce. It was taken seriously by people naive enough to think Durant and Irving (or any other legit star) were going to come to a team of 19-20 year olds that totally sucked. That would mean wasting several years of their career waiting for those kids to develop.

    I thought the idea was nuts and only the media insistence that it could happen even made me discuss it.

    Lee would be coming off the cap this year anyway.

    Noah would be totally off after this year instead of partially still on for 2 more years.

    Even though Hardaway was on a bad contract and is still overpaid, having him around was not going to destroy any ongoing rebuild because we were still so far away from doing anything serious anyway. By the time we were ready to compete, he would be off and we could consider resigning him more attractively as a 6th man (as Dallas will probably consider doing eventually.

    The deal was idiotic start to finish.

    If you were hell bent on trading KP, the idea should have been to maximize the quality of players and picks you could get back and not clearing more space on another media hyped fantasy.

  83. Stratomatic: Frequently wrong, but never in doubt

    True, it would be a shame if we did this because no one drafted at the age of 18 or 19 ever turns out to be a good player.

    You are extremely unlikely to get a player of Doncic’s caliber with a late 1st round pick for Morris and have to be lucky to get one even with a top 5 lottery pick. Please be serious.

    Yeah, if we still had Lee he’d be coming off the books four years after he signed (and four years nary even an 8th seed) during which time we could’ve used $12M to do any number of things that would’ve actually benefitted the long-term position of the team. I am not sure how this helps your argument.

    I can’t defend the Lee signing because he did not live up to the contract (especially after the cap did not rise as expected and he was then perceived as overpaid), but I can defend trying to get better. Getting better is how you attract star players.

    We are not 4 years into a rebuild.

    Yeah, right blowing up a season and finishing next to last doesn’t count. lmao

    Would if have counted if the ping pong balls fell differently or we missed a few shots down the stretch of that season and got Towns instead?

    Probably not. Towns would have probably asked for a trade instead of taking an extension because we sucked and were going nowhere fast via draft alone. Hell, rumors are he’s losing patience in Minny now and they are closer than we are.

    We haven’t had a sustainably good team in 20 years so forgive me if I can wait a bit for a much higher chance of getting one than we’d have with the “try to get a little better with market value free agents” strategy we’ve already been employing forever.

    We were never using a bad strategy. We were executing the strategy we were using incompetently. There’s a big difference. You learned the wrong lesson. It’s OK to trade picks etc.. Just don’t trade great picks for lousy players.

  84. KnickfaninNJ

    TNFH, if we got pick #3 in the draft for Morris. like the one used to pick Doncic, Strat wouldn’t be arguing he didn’t want that. But he specified a late first round pick, which is considerably different.

  85. Dink

    Strat doesn’t like draft picks because they take 5+ years to get good.

    Except if you count the 37 players currently sporting a career WS/48 greater than .100 that have been drafted between 2016-2018. Approx. 21% of all drafted players in that time frame.

    (Knicks drafted one of them. HINT: It ain’t KP)

    (There are slightly less ‘good’ players going by BPM and slightly more using VORP)

  86. thenoblefacehumper

    You are extremely unlikely to get a player of Doncic’s caliber with a late 1st round pick for Morris and have to be lucky to get one even with a top 5 lottery pick. Please be serious.

    You are extremely unlikely to be able to pull off a good trade in which you trade picks for veterans when your team consistently wins games in the 20s, as evidenced by the fact that you never, ever name actual trade targets and the one time E did he named Dennis Schroeder. Please be serious.

    but I can defend trying to get better. Getting better is how you attract star players.

    We’ve been through this a million times, but I guess we still need to go over the fact that both the Nets and Clippers employed strategies we’ve been longing for the Knicks to employ in attracting star players. The Nets took on every salary dump they could, signed a bunch of flyer types like Dinwiddie, and didn’t sign any 30+ year-old veterans to long-term deals. Everyone would call it “tanking” if they had their own picks.

    The Clippers are a ridiculous situation to point to, because we don’t have any Chris Pauls or Blake Griffins to trade. Their entire situation begins with winning the lottery for Blake Griffin, so yes, if one day we win the lottery, maybe we can try to be like the Clippers or something.

    Yeah, right blowing up a season and finishing next to last doesn’t count. lmao

    Can you explain how blowing all of your cap space on Carmelo Anthony, Derrick Rose, Courtney Lee, and Joakim Noah while not acquiring any surplus picks constitutes a season of “rebuilding?”

    You learned the wrong lesson. It’s OK to trade picks etc.. Just don’t trade great picks for lousy players.

    So identify the damn players for once. E is on the record saying we should trade picks for Dennis Schroeder. I think he’s laughably wrong, but at least he put some skin in the game. Name ’em, Strat.

  87. geo

    Amid trade rumors going around, the Knicks leading scorer was asked if the trade deadline will be interesting for him.

    “No,” Morris said. “I’m in New York.”
    Morris was then asked if he still wants to be with the Knicks.

    “You just asked me that last game,” Morris said. “That isn’t going to change. I love our team. I love our future. I just want to be a part of helping these young guys grow into the great players they’re going to be.”

    Over the summer he signed a one-year, $15 million deal with the Knicks, and was asked if he sees himself as part of the team’s future.

    “That was the reason why I made the decision to come here, going back on the decisions I made, along with a lot of other things,” Morris said. “I’m here and I enjoy this organization, I enjoy the players they got here and I want to be here long term.”

    i get the whole: “we needed to trade this dude yesterday to get whatever asset we can for him” thing…i’m not sure the knicks will actually pull the trigger, but, it makes sense…

    just wondering though if he ends up staying this year – what kind of offer should we make going forward?…3 years at about 40 million, maybe?

  88. thenoblefacehumper

    Anyway now that we’re back online, for no particular reason here are some guys picked 25-30th in the last five drafts alone:

    Pascal Siakaim, Larry Nance, Dejounte Murray, Kyle Kuzma, Derrick White, Josh Hart, Mo Wagner, Landry Shamet, Robert Williams, Omari Spellman

    Of course, it’s extremely arbitrary to limit it to those picks specifically and exclude anyone picked after, including: Montrezel Harrel, Richaun Holmes, Josh Richardson, Pat Connaughton, Norman Powell, Cedi Osman, Ivica Zubac, Malcom Brogdon, Dillon Brooks, Jalen Brunson, Devonte’ Graham, Mitchell Robinson, Bruce Brown, and De’Anthony Melton.

    So you’ve got a few legitimate all-stars, more than a few solid starters, and just about everyone else is rotation level. One of these guys is the best player on the Knicks, a few others would be, and I don’t think there’s a single player on this list who would be lower than the 3rd best player on the Knicks.

    So yeah, we’d have a pretty damn good shot at getting someone who would become the third-best player on the team or better on a rookie deal. However, we would have to trade 3 months of Marcus Morris in a year we aren’t doing jackshit, so you know, both sides!

  89. thenoblefacehumper

    I’m trying to do Strat’s homework for him and brainstorm players it might make sense for the Knicks to trade picks get. You need the player to be on the younger side because of our timetable, productive because we’re trading picks, and actually on the market because in NBA trades the teams have to agree.

    The only name I could come up with is Malik Beasley, who is about to be a restricted free agent and has had exactly one somewhat productive NBA season. Needless to say, I would not trade a first round pick for Malik Beasley.

    Anyone I’m missing? Do the people who regularly suggest we should be doing exactly this have any suggestions, or is that still not their thing?

  90. latke

    Bruno Almeida: What annoys me the most about this discussion is that if we only had really sucked ONCE we would have a guy like Doncic or Trae Young and we would be figuring out how to build around him.

    Right. And to the “oh the horror you have destroyed Jesus Christ and all other holy things such as the culture of this franchise by tanking” crowd, ya’ll seem to consider tanking to be actively trying to lose. The Knicks won 29 the year of Young and Doncic largely on the backs of players like Enes Kanter, Courtney Lee and Kyle O’Quinn. Where are they now? Do you think it was important for the Knicks to keep these players and make them the priority in terms of minutes? How has that choice benefitted the Knicks?

  91. DRed

    what kind of offer should we make going forward?…3 years at about 40 million, maybe?

    0 years at 0 million dollars per year

  92. Owen

    If he knew he wanted to stay in New York why weren’t we locking him up to a long term deal last year? There was some Bird rights wrinkle that made the one year deal preferable right? And if you were Morris, why the heck would you not want to go to a contender and play in the playoffs?

    I guess he figures being on a crap team where he can take 20 shots per night maximizes his FV.

    It’s amazing to me that Mook has emerged as our new litmus test for how to run a team. I thought trading him for a late first was the best biggest no brainer possible. Apparently not.

  93. thenoblefacehumper

    what kind of offer should we make going forward?…3 years at about 40 million, maybe?

    1. This probably wouldn’t be enough, he rejected 3/$41M from the Clippers this past offseason

    2. How would the Knicks benefit from paying $13M a year for Marcus Morris’ age 31-33 seasons? In which of those seasons would we be contending for anything? How would we get to that point? Is the idea that the presence of Marcus Morris would attract Giannis or something?

  94. Early Bird

    I don’t see any value to Morris past this year unless we intend to trade him for a younger player. So the question is moot.

    He’s unlikely to repeat this shooting performance and we’re unlikely to be competitive.

    If our goal is to barely make the playoffs, Morris would have value. However the more years he signs for, the yearly value drops quickly. I don’t want a 33 yr old Morris.

  95. Hubert

    It’s worth noting the Knicks easily could’ve used the cleared salary to get picks from Harkless and Iguodala

    Harkless yes but I think the Knicks get too much grief for Iguadola and we really need to put that to rest.

    We may not have directly tampered with Durant but we behaved in a manner that would have made golden state deal with anyone except us if all things were equal.

  96. thenoblefacehumper

    Maybe, but it would’ve been interesting to see what would’ve happened if we promised to immediately waive Iguodala. I’m inclined to think GSW would’ve valued that massive favor to him more than screwing us over.

  97. geo

    can we really just roll out a squad of rookie contract guys for the next 10 years…no we can not…sooner or later we have to bring guys in that:
    a). can actually play basketball
    b). can actually play basketball
    c). guys that don’t totally suck, and can actually play basketball

    who cares if they’re 80 years old and don’t “fit” into our timeline…that’s got to be the funniest shit in the world when people post about our timeline…

    yeah, let’s just leave it at our “timeline” is some time this century…

    marcus morris senior for gm :)

  98. TheClashFan

    @95

    We should have traded Kristaps for 20 first round picks

    And 10 Dennis Smith Jrs. I’m not sure where the Mavericks would have him cloned to complete the trade to the Knicks, though.

  99. thenoblefacehumper

    can we really just roll out a squad of rookie contract guys for the next 10 years…no we can not…

    That’s now how this works. Jowles basically outlined it above, but the basic approach is:

    1) Take on all salary dumps for assets
    2) Sign G-League standouts/UDFAs/second rounders instead of mediocre veterans
    3) Hit on some damn draft picks

    If you get to (3), your team will get better. It’s at this point you should sign as many good free agents as you can before you have to extend the draft picks you hit on. Signing guys in between years 3-4 of rookie scale deal makes the most sense.

    You have the rookie scale priced locked in for 4 seasons, so if your team isn’t getting substantially better by years 3-4, you probably didn’t successfully do (3) and shouldn’t extend the draft picks. In this case, take the Porzingis approach if you can, otherwise let them walk rather than overpay and keep going.

  100. bidiong

    Just because the Knicks have been shitty for 20 years other than the occasional competitive seasons does not equal them tanking.

    I think this point is being missed by some people around here.

  101. The Glass Half Rebuilt

    So here are the problems with keeping MMSr past the deadline:

    1) You’d have to assume the the next POBO/GM/HC combination will want him long term, or that Mills and Perry are not fired and can re-sign him. The former is unlikely and the latter is terrifying.

    2) The best players in this draft are either wings or front court guys. If we draft Anthony Edwards (RJB would have to slide to the 3), Obi Toppin, or Aaron Nesmith, it doesn’t make sense to have Marcus Morris making 8 figures a year.

    3) Marcus Morris will likely never play better than he did this season. He’s 30 and you’d be locking him up at least until he’s 33. That two-way Melo shit ain’t gonna work when he loses a step.

    We should send him home to Philly.

  102. geo

    has anyone looked at the standings recently…there’s a total of 13 teams right now that have a winning percentage above .500…12 above .600 (respectable winning percentage)…maybe five or six total that can win it all (that numbers gone up this year, thank you golden state for falling apart)…

    that leaves 17 teams that suck just like us…reaching mediocrity/above .500 (step number one) should be the first baby step…

    as odd as our off-season was, this team just needs to pick better b-ball marginals like randall, payton, reggie, and morris…guys that can actually contribute on the court…

    we just keep picking the wrong damn “vets”…

    i can just feel us inching ever forward to that 8th seed…cleaning house during the season and the upcoming off-season (again) ain’t gonna help…

  103. Early Bird

    Maybe, but it would’ve been interesting to see what would’ve happened if we promised to immediately waive Iguodala. I’m inclined to think GSW would’ve valued that massive favor to him more than screwing us over.

    Yes, but another team would have agreed to the same deal. At best the Knicks would have been used as leverage with another team ultimately netting a first round pick.

    can we really just roll out a squad of rookie contract guys for the next 10 years…no we can not…sooner or later we have to bring guys in that:

    Even in the scenario where we don’t outright tank for a high pick, I wouldn’t want Morris on the team. We have a team filled with players that are young enough to play decently three years from now and are not terrible at basketball, e.g., Payton, Randle, Bullock. Even Portis is only 25, and has legitimate NBA skills, his issue is the price tag. Next year we can potentially add a few more players to this list: Harrell (in the unlikely event he comes free), Van Vleet, Nerlens Noel, etc.

  104. geo

    you know what milo, i have even more keen basketball thoughts i believe i am destined to share with this world…

    oh, look at the time…time to escape from work…damn…i was just getting started…

    oh yeah, i totally reserve the right to change my mind about anything written here today – tomorrow :)

  105. Early Bird

    @109,

    Yeah I keep looking at it and it’s why I think we have a shot at the playoffs (AKA 8th seed) IF Randle can play closer to his .600 TS% self than the point-Randle we’ve seen this year. Most likely I think we end up in the 9-10 range even if things break right for us. I counted our remaining games against below .500 teams and I think I ended up with about 25 left. Thirty-five wins could get us into the playoffs.

    Also, I have no idea what the injury situation is like for most other teams. So if someone important is coming back to a 9th seed or lower team, that also dents the playoff chances.

    I don’t advocate for making the playoffs strategically, but it would be fun.

  106. Hubert

    just wondering though if he ends up staying this year – what kind of offer should we make going forward?…3 years at about 40 million, maybe?

    We project to have $50mm in cap space.

    I’d offer him 2 years, $38mm.

    I don’t mind overpaying in AAV bc we have plenty of space but I wouldn’t give him a 3rd year.

    EDIT: but we *need* to trade him. Offer him that to come back.

  107. geo

    all seriousness aside…i think there’s more going on with marcus morris being in new york than what’s available to the media…

    who knows, maybe we do trade him…i’m getting the vibe – he don’t want to really move (literally), but, that just could be him saying the right stuff…

    despite these weird 1 and 1 deals – so far i would like to see bullock back in the fold next year…morris, if he’s available, sure – no though to: ellington, portis, gibson (what happened to you Taj), and payton…

    we really need a companion piece to mitch…a tall guy that can actually defend the rim…i like the way elf distributes and defends, but, we already have a point guard who can’t score…we need to find one that does…

  108. Grocer

    The ideal scenario might be for the Raptors to get interested in Morris and hence allow the Knicks to lower the bill for Ujiri’s services. That does seem like a difficult row to hoe, but still. A boy can dream.

  109. Bruno Almeida

    I really do admire tnfh’s resilience to keep bouncing the same stupid arguments over and over. Its been what, years now that strat says the same bullshit about the Knicks “rebuilding for 4 years” when the very first year they really punted a season was last season? And everything else was just so much incompetence that we ended up in the very worst position in the entire NBA, terrible yet outside of the top 5 in the draft.

    It’s just basic, VERY basic understanding of the value of assets. Being terrible while still picking 7th or 8th is literally devaluing your own picks, both as trade assets and potential lottery tickets; the only reason that this devaluing can be worth it is if you add equal or more value everywhere else, which for teams in a promising path generally means young players are progressing and thus winning more games.

    Winning games with rentals and average veterans who aren’t part of the plan for the future is literally devaluing your own assets without recouping that value elsewhere, because veterans age and decline or leave. So the only way this makes sense is if you believe winning 32 games instead of 22 means a free agent will look at this and say, ok, I want to be on that team because they won 32 games, and I’m willing to bet that has never happened and never will.

    So you either make enough great moves to become the last season Clippers, which is impossible because the moves they made came from trading two superstars, Griffin and Paul, for great market value; or you become the Wizards or the Pistons, recycling veterans and average players and desperately “adding talent” to their team while still never becoming a destination for FAs, while they don’t have a core worth developing. Which is exactly the position we’ve been in since goddamned how is it goink was hired, until last season.

  110. thenoblefacehumper

    I really do admire tnfh’s resilience to keep bouncing the same stupid arguments over and over

    I’m glad you like it, because the need I feel to do it is something I don’t like about myself :(

    You explained the absurdity of their argument very well and concisely, so maybe you’ll have better luck? Not holding my breath.

  111. Grocer

    It’s funny because “at least I’m not a Wizards fan” is a thought that always cheers me up.

  112. Grocer

    I’ve not got a subscription so I only get the first few graphs of that Miller Athletic article. But the last bit that I can see:

    They dressed in garbage bags from the waist down, wading into water that went up to their chests.

    Does Miller swoop in and save them from this idiocy? Or is he part of that numbskull brigade?

  113. Brian Cronin

    for great market value; or you become the Wizards or the Pistons, recycling veterans and average players and desperately “adding talent” to their team while still never becoming a destination for FAs, while they don’t have a core worth developing.

    The Wizards won 49 games and their division just three years ago (and took the Celtics to seven games in the second round). I think they made a lot more sense to make those dumb “all-in” moves than other teams. The Pistons and Hornets are probably better examples (the Hornets finished above 3rd in their division just once in the past 19 seasons and it was just last year, when they finished 2nd with 39 wins!).

  114. DRed

    trae young got by two nuggets by turning a behind the back pass fake into a dribble-his handle is ridiculous

  115. ptmilo

    there may be no other nook in the whole cybernet where you can learn that bogdanovic currently has 35 pts and 0 rebs asts blks and stls. this puts the all time pts only record holder allan houston at risk for record 37 and all zeros against the timberwolves.

  116. Bruno Almeida

    @121

    Well yeah, or maybe even the Wolves are a better example. I mentioned the Wizards more because they created a core with 3 top 3 picks, Wall, Beal and Porter, then stumbled around trying to fill the gaps around them and failed miserably, including stuff like trading a 1st for Bogdanovic and then letting him walk for nothing.

    Keep up the good fight tnfh, I’ve been posting less and less here because the same discussions end up boring me, but it’s still the best possible place to discuss basketball.

  117. Brian Cronin

    there may be no other nook in the whole cybernet where you can learn that bogdanovic currently has 35 pts and 0 rebs asts blks and stls. this puts the all time pts only record holder allan houston at risk for record 37 and all zeros against the timberwolves.

    I know you’re referring to the Utah Bogdanovic, but it just reminded me of the weird rumor that the Kings were interested in a Bogdanovic for Kuzma deal. I don’t get it. How does that work for Sacto?

  118. Brian Cronin

    Well yeah, or maybe even the Wolves are a better example. I mentioned the Wizards more because they created a core with 3 top 3 picks, Wall, Beal and Porter, then stumbled around trying to fill the gaps around them and failed miserably, including stuff like trading a 1st for Bogdanovic and then letting him walk for nothing.

    I think they’re honestly a better example of how even an incompetent organization like the Wizards got to be pretty good by virtue of having three top three picks. Imagine if this team had two more top five picks in the next two years to pair with Mitch and Barrett! They might really have something.

  119. thenoblefacehumper

    Casual 38-11-10 on 24 shots with Luka. Somehow he keeps doing this without his $31M floor spacer.

  120. Bruno Almeida

    I can’t wait until Trae Young is finally 25 and becomes a productive player!

    What an insane play, my god, this dude is so talented.

  121. geo

    steph curry broke the nba…

    previous offenders: julius erving, wilt chamberlain…

    wasn’t really in to basketball in dr. j’s prime…the thing I knew wilt from was conan the destroyer…maybe the worst special effects in any movie – ever…

    cool thing though was that they let arnold get buffed up for that film…they purposefully didn’t want him ripped in the first flick…

    growing up out in brand new burg land long island back in the 70’s, during those early teen years joe weider’s muscle builder was a must see…a family of brothers lived a couple doors down, they were a few years older and were in to sports and lifting…

    the dream back then was to go live in cali and work out with arnold at venice beach…

  122. geo

    yes, those fancy handle moves are mighty impressive…however, I would argue that our defensive stalwart julius randall is impervious to such trickery…

    he’s simply indifferent to it all…

  123. Brian Cronin

    From Bondy, “The Knicks would much rather deal forward Bobby Portis, but Morris is, by far, the team’s most valuable expiring contract.”

    Sigh. You know that you don’t have to pick and choose, right, Pills? “Well, if we trade Portis somehow, that means we can keep Morris.” No, you morons.

  124. E

    E is on the record saying we should trade picks for Dennis Schroeder.

    You really have trouble playing it straight, huh? I didn’t say “picks,” I said one of the Dallas picks and I didn’t say we should, I said I’d give it serious thought.

    The Dallas picks don’t have much value no matter how much wishcasting is wished upon them. The odds the Knicks will get even a top 100 player there are low.

  125. E

    I love how the Knicks are so needy and weird that they think Morris is really being “loyal” to them and “wants to be here” when the only reason he’s saying these things is that he wants to get paid.

    Can’t wait until they stupidly sign him to a three or four year deal and then start leaking and spinning about how they’ve “turned the corner” with free agents.

  126. DRed

    This front office has spent the last two-plus years preaching the importance of being competitive. They gave up very quickly on last season and tanked, becoming the worst team in the NBA and creating an aura of ick. Superstar free agents took notice and avoided the Knicks.

    It led to the inevitable conclusion: winning matters.

    We’re not winning very much guys.

  127. Brian Cronin

    We’re not winning very much guys.

    Yeah, that part of the article was such a bizarre leap by Bondy, right? It’s like he just decided to drop his journalistic instincts and just opine for a little bit.

  128. Name is Bron - James Bron

    Is Morris’ natural position the 3 or the 4? Hubert mentioned that Mook as a stretch 4 would be a better use of his talents. That made some sense but I decided to delve into the stats to further investigate. Here are my findings for his most recent 6 seasons:

    (1) Bref has Morris playing the 3 more than 80% of the time in 3 seasons. Each of those seasons he had a plus RPM (NYK and two at Detroit).

    (2) Bref had him playing the 4 in 3 seasons and in each of those seasons he had a minus RPM (Phoenix and two at Boston).

    I think there could be some sweet trades out there. 76ers need vets who drain 3’s. And there’s gotta be some pressure on management this year to keep momentum. Hometown Mook and Reggie could help them in this regard. THIS DEAL works in the trade machine:

    76ers….Marcus, Reggie
    NYK…..Richardson, Zhaire Smith, Scott, pick(s)???

    Note: I prefer to keep Dotson out of any trade if possible. He’s sporting a PLUS .82 RPM so far and could probably be signed near the min this summer.

  129. KnickfaninNJ

    One thing that has just sunk in to me is that Knick’s signed free agents over the summer and some teams are apparently interested in trading for those free agents this season. That’s unusual. Usually signing a free agent means you pay his full value in salary and then his contract is so expensive that although people might take it on, they won’t give picks or anything else to do so. If we actually traded a free agent we signed this year for a pick, the net would be we turned salary cap dollars into picks and still had the salary cap space the next year. That’s sort of like an extra pick for free. Of course, I don’t think Pills is actually planning to do this, but it suggests they did actually get some excess value with their signings.

  130. E

    It led to the inevitable conclusion: winning matters.

    But they’re not … umm … you know … winning. They’re tied for the second-worst record in the NBA. They completely suck.

  131. thenamestsam

    30 year-old Marcus Morris on a 1-year make good contract after the bottom falls out of his market: Good.

    31 year-old Marcus Morris on a 3 or 4 year deal coming off his career year: Bad. Extremely bad. Do not do this. It’s fantastic that Morris wants to be here and the Knicks should absolutely offer him another 1-year deal (for higher AAV even) this offseason if he wants to come back from wherever they trade him to.

    But even if you think the Knicks should be avoiding bottoming out you still want to do that by going for guys with significant upside – younger vets, guys who the market is undervaluing, guys with breakout potential. Giving a 31-year old a lengthy contract off the back of a career year powered by the fact that he’s suddenly a 47% 3-point shooter instead of his career 37% (and every season of his career before this one has been between 33 and 38%) is just not smart.

  132. E

    30 year-old Marcus Morris on a 1-year make good contract after the bottom falls out of his market: Good.

    Actually, even that wasn’t good in context because it took minutes away from Kevin Knox and more potentially productive touches away from RJ Barrett and generally forced the offense into an iso-happy pile of goo. It was a stupid, pointless signing even on its own terms.

    The team is 10-26. That’s what they are. There’s no Elfrid Payton asterisk (LOLOL), or David Fizdale asterisk, or any other asterisk. They’re a bad team, with a mismatched, stupid roster that is still a million billion miles away. They simply have to accept that and until they do, there’s no hope.

  133. Name is Bron - James Bron

    But they’re not … umm … you know … winning.

    But they might soon start winning. I suspect Mills is looking at the soft schedule starting at end of January and won’t trade Morris or Reggie to try to keep his job.

    If we actually traded a free agent we signed this year for a pick, the net would be we turned salary cap dollars into picks and still had the salary cap space the next year.

    There is some precedent here where Perry is concerned. Kings got a pick for George Hill at the trade deadline after he had been signed that summer. It’s a no-brainer to trade Morris but Mills is gonna fight to keep his job and it’s what you get when you have a dumb impulsive owner and a conniver like Mills.

    BTW there’s been some discussion here about the Igoudala trade this summer. We could have offered one of the Charlotte picks and then tried to trade Igoudala similar to what Memphis is doing at the moment. So we would have gotten the GSW 1st round pick and whatever we could have gotten for Igoudala in exchange for the Charlotte pick. Would Memphis have matched that offer? Maybe but we should have been in the game. The ironic and most Knicksy part of all this is that Clippers or 76ers might take Igoudala instead of Morris in a trade even IF Mills wanted to trade him. By my reckoning we could have netted 3+ 1st round picks had we played our cards right and now we’re gonna net ZERO picks.

  134. DRed

    Morris comments make it seem like he wants a long term deal more than he has any real loyalty to the Knicks (which would make sense)

  135. E

    But they might soon start winning.

    No, they’re not going to, under any serious definition of the term. If the definition is “not lose every game on the schedule,” then yeah, they’re going to win. They are not a good team. They are a bad team. There are a handful of other bad teams in the association that the Knicks can beat and occasionally they’ll sneak up on a better team — although other than Dallas, even that hasn’t really happened yet. But I anticipate it will; it does with all bad teams.

    The Knick fanbase and media factions have something like Stockholm Syndrome or something; either that or Fizdale was so awful that he set the bar so low that it threw off everyone’s perspective.

  136. Dink

    E, you may have missed it yesterday but I (and someone else) asked you what the Knicks should have gotten in return for KP. Got an answer?

  137. Dink

    E, you may have missed it yesterday but I (and someone else) asked you what the Knicks should have gotten in return for KP. Let’s see that hypothetical.

  138. E

    E, you may have missed it yesterday but I (and someone else) asked you what the Knicks should have gotten in return for KP. Got an answer?

    Way more than they got. Something like the returns that were on the table when he was shopped in mid-2017. They managed and realized on the asset extremely poorly, Stepien-esque really. The only reason people here suggest otherwise is that they are fighting tangential fights having nothing to do with the return on the asset. I’m not interested in those fights.

    Getting pennies on the dollar for a top-15-ish asset is a disaster in every way and it’s set them back by years. It’s the number one reason they are where they are now.

  139. Name is Bron - James Bron

    But they might soon start winning.

    No, they’re not going to, under any serious definition of the term.

    The definition that matters here is the # of wins required to enable Mills and Perry to keep their jobs. There are enough winnable games starting on Jan 26th which meet this criterion. Click
    HERE and then go to Jan 26th and peruse the schedule from there.

  140. Farfa Post author

    The definition that matters here is the # of wins required to enable Mills and Perry to keep their jobs.

    If by late January Miller has a .500 record on his stint alone Pills might feel vindicated enough not to pull any trigger at all. That’s why every loss counts.

  141. marechal

    You’d think that trading all the guys they got on one-year deals would be the quintessential no-brainer, but apparently even that’s too complicated for this front office (and fan base, it seems)?

    These guys are not making the team better. We know that because they already play in a team that sucks.

    Remember when the roughly 0.500 Yankees traded their relievers/expiring guys for Gleyber Torres, Clint Frazier, Justus Sheffield (who became James Paxton), Dillon Tate (who partially became Zack Britton) and other stuff? It’s not that hard, people.

  142. KnickfaninNJ

    If the Knicks win 40% of their remaining games, which I think is possible given the way they are playing now, they’ll have 28 wins for the season, roughly where predicted. I doubt they will do better than that. Is that enough to save Mills job? Who knows?

  143. KnickfaninNJ

    Wait until the trade deadline before you complain about no trades. That’s when most deals happen and when a selling team has the most leverage.

  144. E

    I got them winning 3-4 more games by Feb 1, which will make them something like 14-35, 10-17 under Miller. They may not even win that many.

    If that’s good enough to save Mills’s job, all this talk is pointless because there’s no hope.

  145. E

    If by late January Miller has a .500 record on his stint alone Pills might feel vindicated enough not to pull any trigger at all. That’s why every loss counts.

    He’d have to go two games over .500, four after they get smoked by the Lakers and Jazz, to get to .500 on his stint.

    Not happening.

  146. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    Way more than they got.

    Such a ridiculous vague response.

    Something like the returns that were on the table when he was shopped in mid-2017.

    You mean before he blew up his knee? C’mon. This is disingenuous. ACLs are not a death sentence for a career but they certainly do not help trade value. Plus, you offer no concrete answer. “That one, not this one” is not persuasive.

    They managed and realized on the asset extremely poorly, Stepien-esque really.

    Except you still have not offered the alternative realization of that asset. Not one.

    The only reason people here suggest otherwise is that they are fighting tangential fights having nothing to do with the return on the asset. I’m not interested in those fights.

    No. We suggest otherwise because we are appealing to a concrete, documented return on the asset.

    Porzingis, at the time

    pros:
    very tall
    nice-looking shot
    good defender
    young
    “upside”

    cons:
    injured, injury-prone
    one of the worst high-volume shooters in the league
    poor rebounder
    due a $156M guaranteed contract extension without having played ball in 18 months
    sexual assault allegations (which the Mavs knew about during the trade, IIRC)

    So we are taking those assessments and making this argument:

    It was better to take back two 1sts, dump a couple of salaries (that never should have existed in the first place) and take a flyer on a deeply-flawed player than it is to give an injured, inefficient scorer a $156M contract that all but ensures that he will be the centerpiece of any rebuild until 2024.

    Maybe you could argue that right now, despite his inability to show any improvements while playing to a creative genius scorer/distributor, he could fetch more on the trade market. Maybe you could do that with the advantages of hindsight. But that too would be disingenuous.

  147. TheClashFan

    What offers were “on the table” in 2017?

    I only recall some reports that Phil was sort of shopping Porzingis. IIRC Danny Ainge threw some cold water on those rumors, but there was one of Phil maybe asking Phoenix for Booker and a 1st.

  148. TheClashFan

    @161
    Nah. You’re the one making claims; go ahead and back them up. All I remember is Phil asking teams and being rebuffed, but I may have forgotten. What was “on the table?”

  149. Owen

    We were talking about Trae Young last night but Jokic had an unreal line. 47 points on 33 possessions with no turnovers. And he was a +0 for the game while Michael Porter Jr. was a +17 in 20 minutes.

  150. The KnickerBlogger's Apprentice

    It was better to take back two 1sts, dump a couple of salaries (that never should have existed in the first place) and take a flyer on a deeply-flawed player than it is to give an injured, inefficient scorer a $156M contract that all but ensures that he will be the centerpiece of any rebuild until 2024.

    Yup. I’m surprised to find this is still being challenged by anyone on this board. I remember most of us woke to this news thinking the KP trade was absolutely the right thing to do.

    And for anyone on here who believes the franchise needs vets to keep fans in seats, or create some kind of professional culture, I will argue that a roster of “Baby Knicks” led by Mitch, RJ, Frank, Knox, et al could lose the same number of games (or more) and yet provide a better narrative for fans and sell more tickets.

    Dolan and co. are misreading the fan base. We WANT a proper rebuild with the kids. Mitch going off against Portland adds way more value to the franchise than Marcus Morris winning any game, period. The “deciders” must maximize the number of opportunities for the kids to succeed.

  151. Dink

    Way more than they got.

    What do you think he was worth at the time of the trade?

    (try to use specific examples i.e. # of picks, protections, etc.)

  152. ptmilo

    dear sirs,

    herein lies my humble application to serve as ersatz manager-general of the esteemed heterdox guild of imaginary knickerbocker operations. my detailed plan to dominate conventional guilds is laid out in exquisite detail in the following principles of implementation:

    1. win trades. conventional guilds have historically sought to lose or tie all exchanges. instead i suggest we dominate competitive merchants by acquiring vastly superior assets while providing only misshapen detritus in return. over time i expect this will result in highly satisfactory winmanship gains of a very particular specificity as described above.

    2. acquire culture. to attract the best warriors from other lands we shall persuade them of the greatness of our own warriors and our superior warriorness. we shall achieve this by first acquiring the best warriors by executing relentlessly upon this principle # 2. we shall also briefly employ mercenaries to march briskly through our territories and sing their clever songs of winmanship as they depart.

    3. divest speculative assets. foolish kingdoms recruit apprentice seedlings on dim hopes that perhaps one may sprout into a great warrior many moon hence. under my rule we denude these peasant dreams for existent winmanship in accordance with the first two principles. wide eyed merchants will happily feed our bellies today for just a smattering of our seedlings. in fact my first act as manager general shall be to swiftly exchange our lowest and least attractive seedling for several of land’s greatest warriors.

    4. abolish legerdemain. my empire shall immediately convert all bean counters into warrior gluteus enlargement trainers. no mention of budgetary limitations or warrior endowments shall be permitted to enter any operational discussion. similarly, all actuaries employed by the division of warrior evaluation must learn the art of mime and communicate with the manager general exclusively in that medium.

  153. JK47

    Look, at his present level of production Porzingis fucking sucks. And he’s never played much better than he is playing right now. Could they have squeezed out slightly more for him, yeah I don’t know but I’m glad his stank ass is not eating up $30M of salary cap here to score 17 points on 18 FGA every goddamn night.

    Get back to me when that overrated stiff “gets stronger” or whatever and actually earns that horrible contract. Until then just be glad he’s somebody else’s problem.

    The naysayers are right about Porzingis so far. .As they usually are. .510 TS%, 25.4 USG%, yep that’s a shitty player all right. Some of y’all just need to deal with that.

  154. Hubert

    Wow, I think the Giants just eclipsed the Knicks for worst management in NY.

    Before you jump on me, Bob Neptune… Having learned from Daniel Jones, I’m going to recant this statement, have an open mind, and let the guy coach a little before passing judgment.

    I do think it was pretty telling that all their top candidates wanted nothing to do with them.

  155. Owen

    PTMilo – Who can forget noted bard Enes Kanter and his famous song of winmanship, “No Losing for Luka.”

  156. DRed

    I’ve never heard of the guy the Giants hired but signing a young coach is better than hiring a failed retread like Jason Garrett or Adam Gase. I think most proven coaches know Gettleman is a dead man walking and wouldn’t want the Giants job.

  157. Bruno Almeida

    The only trade offer I remember floating around for Porzingis was Devin Booker + a pick swap that would give us number 4 for 8, if I recall correctly, and nobody clarified really if it was the Suns offering or the Knicks asking price. There were rumors floating around that the Celtics were “prepared to offer a bunch of young assets”, and that’s pretty much it.

    Now, I would rather have Devin Booker and whoever they picked 4th, even if it was Markkanen who I don’t like, than Porzingis + Ntilikina; but we don’t even know if that was an actual offer that could have gone through or if the Suns would reject it. And I would rather have Tatum and whatever pick the Celtics gave us, but we also don’t even know if that was on the table.

    You all would have freaked out if those trades went through, and now acting like they should have done it, before the injury even happened and before we knew Porzingis would want out. I’m all for bashing Mills, but this discussion is stupid. If Porzingis becomes a very good player eventually it was still the right move to trade him, because all the indications are that it won’t be the case.

  158. Hubert

    I think most proven coaches know Gettleman is a dead man walking and wouldn’t want the Giants job.

    I’m not so sure, DRed. He “just hired four computer folks, software people” and “talked to a big-time analytics guy.”

    (For those of you who don’t follow this shit show, those are actual quotes from Dave Gettelman at the press conference where he had to defend his terrible tenure.)

  159. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    HAHAHAHA JUST HIRED FOUR COMPUTER FOLKS, SOFTWARE PEOPLE

    You know what hell is? Hell is trying to explain to a person who says “computer folks, software people” why going for it on 4th and 1 at your opponent’s 10-yard line is most often a good idea.

  160. Owen

    Can you imagine this board discussing a Devin Booker extension? That would have been worth at least 10,000 posts….

  161. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    in fact my first act as manager general shall be to swiftly exchange our lowest and least attractive seedling for several of land’s greatest warriors.

    absolutely dead

    Can you imagine this board discussing a Devin Booker extension? That would have been worth at least 10,000 posts….

    Yeah, but at least you’re seeing this guy become Kobe in the pace and space era. I would be okay having to stare at that forehead/haircut combo for five years if it comes with 30% USG and .600 TS%. That’s a rare player and I probably would have been wrong in criticizing it, had that argument found a home here.

  162. Hubert

    Can you imagine this board discussing a Devin Booker extension? That would have been worth at least 10,000 posts….

    Unless Dennis Smith played more minutes than Frank that night, in which case it would be relegated to the second tier of topics.

  163. thenoblefacehumper

    ptmilo is the Mitch of this board if he could play 36 minutes a night.

    Everyone else has already addressed how annoying it is to smugly assume all of your baseless speculations re: Porzingis’ trade value are factual, so let me address:

    Getting pennies on the dollar for a top-15-ish asset

    My god, this may be the most deluded opinion of all of them. Bigs alone get you about halfway there, I mean all of these guys were unambiguously better assets than Porzingis at the time of the trade:

    Towns
    AD
    Jokic
    Embiid
    Gobert
    Turner
    Sabonis
    Siakam

    There are some I’m leaving out as to avoid the dreadful #FakeStats argument, but anyway then you have (in no particular order):

    Giannis
    Kawhi
    Luka
    Simmons
    Beal
    Booker
    Fox

    Those are 15 guys who undeniably had higher value than Porzingis at the time. If you’re noticing some glaring omissions such as LeBron James, Kevin Durant, James Harden, Stephen Curry, Damian Lillard etc. that’s intentional–I’m keeping it on the younger side as to avoid a pedantic-ass discourse about what constitutes an “asset.” Those guys absolutely could’ve still fetched much more in a trade than Porzingis could at the time, but whatever.

  164. thenamestsam

    He “just hired four computer folks, software people” and “talked to a big-time analytics guy.”

    I would find this funnier if I didn’t think that hiring four “computer folks” would be a big improvement over what we currrently have going on analytics-wise in the Knicks front office.

  165. E

    I mean all of these guys were unambiguously better assets than Porzingis at the time of the trade:

    Not even close. You’re so far off and so tendentious at this point that I’m just going to drop the topic. Donatis Sabonis a more valuable asset than KP at the time of the trade? That’s insane, not even worth further discussion.

    I’m never going to be able to talk you down from your delusions, so I will stop bothering. But the simple fact is that the Knicks got a very poor return on the asset and it set back their rebuild a lot. If you want to persist in thinking otherwise, have at it.

  166. Bruno Almeida

    If you truly think Domantas Sabonis is a worse player than Porzingis, I have some news for you…

    He might not be a better asset for trading, as we all know reputation is a thing and somehow Porzingis has benefited from being regarded as a superstar without ever producing like one, but Sabonis is clearly more productive.

  167. E

    He might not be a better asset for trading, as we all know reputation is a thing and somehow Porzingis has benefited from being regarded as a superstar without ever producing like one

    Whether he was a better asset for trading is the topic under discussion. If the other teams overvalue him, who cares? Take them to the cleaners then. That’s your job. Your job isn’t to trade him for pennies on the dollar.

    You all may know reputation is a thing, but the things you say completely belie that purported knowledge.

  168. E

    I’m keeping it on the younger side as to avoid a pedantic-ass discourse about what constitutes an “asset.”

    There’s nothing “pedantic” about the concept of an asset and, yeah, age is obviously part of that. RJ Barrett is a more valuable asset than Marcus Morris, beyond question. This is not complicated.

  169. JK47

    Porzingis is all hype and projection, Sabonis is all production.

    I know which player I’d rather have and it isn’t close.

  170. Dink

    If Knickerblogger was a commedia dell’arte production ‘E’ would be playing Il Dottore, the know-it-all dunce.

  171. E

    Porzingis is all hype and projection, Sabonis is all production.

    I know which player I’d rather have and it isn’t close.

    Irrelevant. Do you seriously not understand this? I find that hard to believe.

  172. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    Still waiting on the alternative deals.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/06/sports/basketball/porzingis-mavericks-knicks.html

    It turns out that the Knicks spent much of January quietly canvassing the league for potential Porzingis deals, according to a person familiar with the talks who was not authorized to discuss them publicly. They tried — unsuccessfully — to trade for untouchables such as Utah’s Donovan Mitchell and Sacramento’s De’Aaron Fox.

    […]

    The Knicks were convinced that no team besides Dallas would take the Hardaway and Lee contracts and package a player of Smith’s caliber with first-round draft picks.

    The Knicks also were fearful that letting the Dallas offer linger, or engaging other teams in the week leading up to the trade deadline, would enable the Porzingis camp to scare off the Mavericks or other potential suitors by threatening to sign long-term only with teams like the Nets or the Clippers.

    https://dailyknicks.com/2019/02/10/knicks-trade-rumors-old-kristaps-porzingis-offers-greater-returns/

    Per Marc Berman of the New York Post, Jackson received two intriguing offers for Porzingis [before the ACL injury]: a handful of assets from the Boston Celtics and Devin Booker and a first-round pick that would have netted Lauri Markkanen from the Phoenix Suns, who selected fourth in the 2017 draft.

    “Teams weren’t knocking their doors down,’’ one individual with knowledge of the matter told The Post regarding Porzingis’ trade value. “They got some interest, but not like that [Phoenix, Boston offer].”

  173. Dink

    What do you think he was worth at the time of the trade?

    (try to use specific examples i.e. # of picks, protections, etc.)

    We ever gonna get an answer?

  174. latke

    @Geo, you do realize that hte Knicks front office has acted almost perfectly in accordance with your views. They have gone out and used cap money to sign veteran players year after year… this approach to clearing cap room and trying to sign veteran players has been going on since 2010, when we fantasized about Lebron and signed Amar’e instead, and then has become almost an annual thing since the Knicks signed Phil Jackson.

    Sign free agents > realize they’re overpaid and holding hte team back > dump their salaries using young players > sign new free agents > repeat…

    That’s been the Knicks’ cycle for most of the last decade. So it’s on you, geo, to explain why your approach of trying to be competitive has left the Knicks so crappy for so long.

  175. Sly Wi-yums

    The Knicks pulled the KP trade not less than a week after KP reportedly said he wanted out. The Knicks trade leverage evaporates the moment it gets out that he demanded a trade. Shopping KP around may have yielded less return than the “pennies on the dollar” haul they got. Swift removal of tumor before it spread.

    Top 15 potential is a better description. I prefer my top 15 players to play full seasons. The Knicks were concerned about locking that cap money on a guy who never played a complete season coming off ACL surgery.

    The only jersey in my closet is a KP #6, I was fully bought in. I was super disappointed with the trade. If I project my feelings to the KB group, KP was the 1st drafted asset since Ewing that we could all have grown up with. Its more enjoyable to do it with our own guys than to buy guys. Not that they can do either. That ship has sailed. We got what we got. Pennies on the dollar is more than nothing.

  176. E

    Still waiting on the alternative deals.

    Everything you quoted was the front office talking its book by way of justifying the godawful return they got — and obviously so. Naivete is not a particularly endearing trait, particularly amongst sophisticated basketball commentators. Don’t let yourselves get conned by Steve Mills, of all people.

    The Knicks were convinced that no team besides Dallas would take the Hardaway and Lee contracts and package a player of Smith’s caliber with first-round draft picks.

    Sure thing, Steve. And “a player of Smith’s caliber”? Uh-huh. Pull the other one.

    I mean, yeah, you aren’t exactly going to maximize your return on the asset when you insist on appending your incompetent contractual dreck. Shocking, I know.

  177. thenoblefacehumper

    Donatis Sabonis a more valuable asset than KP at the time of the trade? That’s insane, not even worth further discussion.

    Hahahahahahaha, oh my god. I mean I guess I shouldn’t do a comparison of the #FakeStats, but I’m pretty damn sure GMs around the league would take the younger, unambiguously better player who continues to improve every year.

    But hey, I guess it’s totally insane to think GMs would’ve preferred the 22 year old putting up 20/13.5/4 with a .630 TS% (I forget, is TS% fake or is it just WS48/BPM?) with an extra year of the rookie scale salary ($3.5M this year, sheesh) to the 23 year old…rehabbing from a torn ACL with a career high TS% of .546.

  178. Scorpio Dragon

    Devin Booker and a 1st (whether it’s pick swap or straight up is up in the air) is the best (alternative trade) I’ve seen so far. I’m wary of the Celtics one because I don’t think Ainge would have included much in trading with a division foe.

  179. JK47

    Does anybody believe the Pacers would have traded a healthy, cheap Sabonis straight up for an injured, about-to-be-maxed Porzingis? Fuck no they would not have.

    So there’s your answer to who had higher trade value.

  180. thenoblefacehumper

    E seems to think GMs around the league were like “hmm, how should we value Porzingis? Let’s see what the brilliant minds at r/nyknicks think.”

    In reality, it sure seems like the #FakeStats have a pretty decent correlation with trade value. In the cases where they don’t, the team acting out of accordance with them tends to be the loser (e.g. trading Kawhi for a package centered around DeRozan).

  181. thenamestsam

    Making the argument solely about Sabonis is totally dumb since he’s only one name on the list, and there were other guys not included (say, Steph Curry) who are indisputable. Calling Porzingis a top-15 asset at the time of the trade is clearly an exaggeration. On the other hand, it’s clearly not that much of an exaggeration because the Knicks got a crazy haul for him! They got two first rounders, a top-10 pick in his 2nd season, and cleared so much salary that it would’ve cost probably another two first rounders to get rid of it in a pure dump. That’s about 5 first rounders worth of value – it’s a lot. There’s a vanishingly short list of guys who have been traded recently for more than that. Bill Simmons trade value thingy (he’s by no means a basketball analyst but he is a reasonable proxy for consensus) had Porzingis around 25th at the time of the trade I think.

  182. JK47

    Yeah, we forget about the salary dump aspect of the KP trade because these bozos spent it on magic beans, but that was a significant part of the deal. Thenamestsam is right, that was at least a 1RP worth of value, probably more.

  183. E

    Porzingis was 17th in Simmons’s December 2018 trade/asset value rankings. Donatis Sabonis was 46th. Dennis Smith, Jr. wasn’t in the top 55.

    The 16 ahead of KP were Giannis, AD, Curry, LBJ, Luka, Jojo, Joker, Simmons, Tatum (home cooking there), KD, Harden, Kawhi, Oladipo, Dame, Fox, KAT.

    They didn’t get anything close to full value for that asset. Time to come in from the cold and face the facts. If Phil’d been allowed to trade him — Phil had the overvaluation pegged perfectly — they’d be light years ahead of where they are.

  184. JK47

    Trading a healthy KP would have been a good “sell high” move, that I agree with. That’s one thing for which I do have to give credit to Phil, he realized that KP was not likely to live up to the hype.

  185. thenoblefacehumper

    Yep, selling high on KP would’ve been very smart. That’s wildly inconsistent with the idea that he’s a budding superstar, though…

  186. Silky Johnson, Fleet Admiral of the Tank Armada

    Everything you quoted was the front office talking its book by way of justifying the godawful return they got — and obviously so. Naivete is not a particularly endearing trait, particularly amongst sophisticated basketball commentators. Don’t let yourselves get conned by Steve Mills, of all people.

    “All actual reports of KP’s trade value by The Failing New York Times, The New York Post, and every Knicks beat writer are fake news spread by Mills to save face. The only objective measure of KP’s asset value at the time of trade is my special intuitive access to the minds of 30 GMs around the league supplemented by Bill Simmons articles.”

    They didn’t get anything close to full value for that asset. Time to come in from the cold and face the facts. If Phil’d been allowed to trade him — Phil had the overvaluation pegged perfectly — they’d be light years ahead of where they are.

    *Sound of a bicycle backpedaling into a busy intersection*

    By your own admission, the argument here is about KP’s asset value *at the time of the Mavs trade*. Bringing up possible Phil offers (none of which have been made explicit, besides Booker + the #4, which we don’t know if Phoenix actually offered) has nothing to do with whether the Mavs trade was good. If you’re going to be unbearably condescending, at least avoid moving the goalposts and making in-principle unverifiable claims.

  187. E

    Yep, selling high on KP would’ve been very smart.

    And it therefore stands to reason, with almost Cartesian simplicity, that selling low on KP was very stupid.

    I think we’ve made some progress here today ….

  188. mase

    something tells me Phil had an ulterior motive to trading Kp. I just don’t buy it that the same idiot who signed Noah and Melo is smart enough to forsee kp as the non elite player he is/was.

  189. Scorpio Dragon

    So I was listening to a pod the other day and they did an exercise that I think could be fun here if there’s buy-in. An All-Decade Draft. Basically, you would get some posters and put them in a pool. Then set a draft style (serpentine was the one used in the pod), after which people would pick players for their team. Now the pod had some variable reasoning for their picks, some picked based on peak during the decade, but would then choose based on player sustainability during the decade. So if we did do something like this it would have to have some tighter rules. I’d lean towards picking a player from a specific year vs time frame, personally. At the end, you also pick your coach for the team. So player fit did come into play a bit, which I think would work well for the board.

    Granted, it’s a little of the beaten path for the board, but I can only take so much digital ink spilling over the virtues or foibles of Frank or Morris, trades that might happen or not, or trades that never happened but could have, and it could be a welcome distraction from the Knick normal that we’ve fallen into with the past 20 years or so.

    Hell, if arguing over teams and GMing is still what gets you to the board at least we can do it over good players in a completely fantastical way.

  190. KnickfaninNJ

    the Knicks got a very poor return on the asset and it set back their rebuild a lot

    You are conflating two different things, the value of what we got in exchange for KP and setting back our rebuild. We traded KP for assets that deliver their value in the future. cap space takes until the next season at least before you get any benefit and the first round picks we got don’t even give us a player for something like three years and then it will likely be at least another year before being a productive player. It was a management decision to do that. They could have tried to get an immediately productive player instead, but from the quotes above, a good deal of that sort might not have been available. We got a fair return by the standards of lots of external commentators. But it did slow down our rebuild because of the delays in realizing the value of our assets that I describe above.

  191. latke

    I think the Knicks made out quite well in terms of value in a vacuum. They dumped about $60m of salary — ~$20m of salary from Lee and another ~$45m owed to Hardaway. If one year and $17m of Iguodala is worth a 1st rounder, then all that money and years (2.5 years to Tim and 1.5 to Lee) is easily worth a couple mid first rounders or a single pick maybe in the 7-10 range. So if we distill this down to picks, you get an unprotected and top 10 protected pick + a mid lotto pick + DSJr who was maybe worth a late 1st or early 2nd.

    So in a vacuum, they did well. It’s just the market value for cap room is determined by elite teams who are guaranteed to be able to convert that room into meaningful playoff wins and are exponentially more likely to be able to woo an elite free agent. The Knicks aren’t that team. So even if they got a good deal on the cap room, they should have anticipated being unable to near take full advantage of it… Kinda like if you lived at the North Pole and ordered a cooler because it was discounted. Probably not gonna get your money’s worth no matter how good the deal was.

  192. thenoblefacehumper

    And it therefore stands to reason, with almost Cartesian simplicity, that selling low on KP was very stupid.

    Just as E would simply win all the trades and draft the players who will turn out to be the best NBA players, he would’ve simply cashed in on Kristaps Porzingis’ June 2017 trade value in January 2019.

    The guy is a real wiz!

  193. d-mar

    trading a healthy KP would have been a good “sell high” move, that I agree with. That’s one thing for which I do have to give credit to Phil, he realized that KP was not likely to live up to the hype.

    That would have been a brilliant move, and every Kblogger (including myself) would have been howling about giving up our golden boy future lock HOF’er and calling for Phil’s head on a platter.

    There was that kind of reaction when the Pacers traded PG13 for Sabonis and Oladipo, and it turned into a pretty good deal for both teams.

    The best GM’s are the ones who look ahead and don’t worry about fans knee jerk reactions.

  194. Name is Bron - James Bron

    Marcus Morris is doubtful for tonight’s game due to neck soreness, Knicks say. Dennis Smith Jr. is questionable.

    Could a Morris trade be imminent?

  195. TheClashFan

    If you want to give Phil a some credit, he may have seen KP and his brother’s diva-ish attitudes and thus shopped him around. That seems more likely rather than him recognizing so quickly that KP would develop into an overrated talent.

    But whatever. The only real gripe I have is that Pills didn’t fully realize the value of the KP trade. If they had rented the cap space out they got, we might be looking at 4 first round picks + DSJ being the effective haul.

    Now, they might still partially correct that mistake by TRADING MORRIS for a first round pick.
    :-)

  196. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    When’s the last time the annual Bill Simmons trade value article has been used as evidence in a Knickerblogger argument? Never?

    This is an amazing day.

    Everything you quoted was the front office talking its book by way of justifying the godawful return they got — and obviously so. Naivete is not a particularly endearing trait, particularly amongst sophisticated basketball commentators. Don’t let yourselves get conned by Steve Mills, of all people.

    I don’t even put any real weight behind those articles. Ex post facto trade possibilities are pure speculation. Hell, ongoing trade rumors should be considered nothing but hot air until the paperwork is submitted to the league office.

    My point is that I showed you what a few bits of (sports) reporting, which may or may not be accurate, said at the time.

    You have shown nothing.

  197. thenoblefacehumper

    But whatever. The only real gripe I have is that Pills didn’t fully realize the value of the KP trade. If they had rented the cap space out they got, we might be looking at 4 first round picks + DSJ being the effective haul.

    Yeah, this is the real tragedy of the trade. The value lost from dumping the salaries was right there for the taking to be recouped. We’ll always have Wayne Ellington memories instead, though. So you have to look at that.

  198. Mike Honcho

    Sometimes I wonder if all the trolls we’ve had over the years are just one guy gradually refining his trolling, but he got in too deep and so he can’t leave yet because he still hasn’t proven the egghead nerds wrong.

  199. airkent

    i’m confused…. we added hardaway and lee to the trade, to get rid of those contracts we would have had to give up picks. We did this trade like Strat said to chase durant and kyrie, no one knows what assurances or not we got from them so i don’t know how dumb that was….

    We absolutely could have got better value if it was just KP straight up but we wanted to dump the contracts….

    What are you guys even arguing??

  200. KnickfaninNJ

    Sometimes I wonder if all the trolls we’ve had over the years are just one guy gradually refining his trolling, but he got in too deep and so he can’t leave yet because he still hasn’t proven the egghead nerds wrong.

    That kind of troll must have market value. Maybe we can trade him or her for some other troll and a second troll to be named later

  201. Ntilakilla

    I can’t believe we’re still arguing about the Porzingis trade. Every Knicks fan should be thrilled we got what we got for the guy.

  202. ess-dog

    How in the world does a post-acl tear KP get us four firsts and a young player selected in the lottery? Prime Kevin Garnett only got two firsts, Al Jefferson, and filler.

    I know there are doubters out there, but on another note, Mitch’s advanced numbers are really spectacular, especially considering he hasn’t played with a legit point guard yet. Imagine him with even the current version of CP3… And although I don’t love his game, he could work fine with Randle, as they both crush the offensive and defensive boards, respectively.

    I would prioritize moving our pick for a legit pg if there’s one on the market, but I feel like I’ve been saying that since… oh idk… 1999? But also, what happened to the RJ-as-point-forward project? He just seems a lot less useful without the ball in his hands.

  203. Early Bird

    I would have taken 2 draft picks and DSJr straight up for KP. The salary dump is all icing on the cake. At best the dump serves as a balance for giving Dallas some protections on the picks and possibly delayed transfer if the pick sent to ATL didn’t transfer right away.

    More importantly, why are we arguing with a guy who can’t even read the NBA standings right? Or are the win-loss records of teams also “hollow” numbers?

    But they’re not … umm … you know … winning. They’re tied for the second-worst record in the NBA. They completely suck.

    Both the Warriors and Hawks have worse records than us. Tied for third-worst record, but playing slightly under .500 ball since Payton’s return and Miller taking over. Our ORTG is up 7 pts (!!) since Miller took over. That number is absurd.

  204. Early Bird

    But also, what happened to the RJ-as-point-forward project? He just seems a lot less useful without the ball in his hands.

    I’ve been wondering the same thing. Part of it may be a rookie being out of his depth, but he definitely looks more together when he’s running the offense. In particular, when he runs the offense out of a set and knows where each other player will be and when they’ll be there.

  205. geo

    @Geo, you do realize that the Knicks front office has acted almost perfectly in accordance with your views. They have gone out and used cap money to sign veteran players year after year… this approach to clearing cap room and trying to sign veteran players has been going on since 2010, when we fantasized about Lebron and signed Amar’e instead, and then has become almost an annual thing since the Knicks signed Phil Jackson.

    Sign free agents > realize they’re overpaid and holding hte team back > dump their salaries using young players > sign new free agents > repeat…

    That’s been the Knicks’ cycle for most of the last decade. So it’s on you, geo, to explain why your approach of trying to be competitive has left the Knicks so crappy for so long.

    forgive me for my intellectual dishonesty latke…most of what i wrote yesterday was trollsome…i’m a bad person…bad person…

    work is currently kicking my ass…i’ll try later to tune in and figure out what it is we were talking about…

    i wish i could spend all day just going back and forth on endless and meaningless knick discussions…it’s surprisingly fulfilling…

  206. Hubert

    I can’t believe we’re still arguing about the Porzingis trade. Every Knicks fan should be thrilled we got what we got for the guy.

    Time has definitely made it look less attractive. Smith is terrible. The cap space was blown. And Luka is so ahead of schedule that those picks look like a good return for Marcus Morris.

    But time will eventually erode Porzingis’ reputation, too.

    We did fine in that trade. The best part is not having to pay him.

  207. airkent

    In the moment I was fine with the trade because i thought we had a shot at Durant, looking back we shouldn’t have salary dumped Lee and Hardaway. Just went after the max value for KP whatever that was.

    Hindsight is 20/20

  208. mase

    What pissed me off the most about the trade was that we gave up the best player in the trade; Considering we are desperate for good homegrown talent. And since we needed a pg since the previous century, dsjr wasn’t enough for me.

    It would’ve been better to get back equal talent instead of the salary dump. The picks Are the x-factor.

  209. Brian Cronin

    The Suns never offered Booker and a first for Porzingis. The Knicks were asking for Booker, but Booker was never even in the mix and that ultimately is what kept the deal from happening. The Suns’ whole angle was wanting to pair Porzingis with Booker. The Suns’ beat guy said that the Suns offered the Knicks the #4, both of Miami’s picks that the Suns got for Dragic and either Dragan Bender or Marquese Chriss (both were garbage, of course, thrown in more because Phoenix wanted to get rid of them).

    The first Miami pick was used on Zhaire Smith. The other one is an unprotected 2021 pick which looks, at the moment, like it will be a late first.

    Woj, who the Suns beat guy disagreed with, said that the Suns weren’t even offering the #4 pick!

    So just noting that Booker/#4 pick was never on the table.

  210. DRed

    Whoever E was in 2017 they were probably saying Phil was a moron for shopping budding superstar kristaps porzingis

  211. djphan

    with elf back… ball handling responsibilities have basically fallen back to him.. as it should… rj’s ok at running an offense but he needs to concentrate on other things first….

    the passing he’s shown thus far is restricted to before he’s committed to an action in triple threat position… he was involved in more of those opportunities since it was only morris and randle doing those things… now it’s morris/randle/payton…

    what’s been happening before and after payton is that the assist he makes are usually when he’s in survey mode…. that’s good… he’s thinking and considering the options… and he generally makes the right call… but if he decides to go full speed and drive he rarely gives it up…. that’s bad… especially when he’s forcing rotations and there’s open guys… that’s why teams have such an easy time defending him at the rim… once he switches gears he’s committed to throwing a shot up instead of recognizing where the open guy is from whoever rotated over….

    if he can’t do that… he can’t be a point anything… but that’s fine…. he’s not lebron… that part will definitely come with time and maybe even this year….

  212. Grocer

    @233, that’s some new and interesting info I had not heard before, thanks!

    It’s funny, when I heard about the trade I was immediately ecstatic because it meant we weren’t maxing KP. As far as I’m concerned, the two picks were plenty and everything else was just gravy. I guess it’s kind of nice that the troll is uniting the board though, that’s pretty rare.

  213. bidiong

    What a shitshow this one was today. At least my doctor said my bloodwork was good and I’m not dying anytime soon.

  214. Hubert

    Apropos to nothing…

    I was taken to see the movie Parasite last week. Hubert is newly single again so is now subject to the whims of women he has gone on one date with. And I’m sorry for using 3rd person but it’s too late and I’m not going to retract it.

    Anyway, what I thought was going to be 2+ hours of nap time turned out to be one of the better movies I’ve seen in an extremely long time. It’s in Korean so you have to endure subtitles but it’s worth it.

    FYI it sounds like it’s going to be a horror movie but it isn’t. It’s a comedy centered on class disparity. Its originality more than makes up for the subtitles and the length.

  215. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    I loved loved loved Parasite. I was shocked by how funny it was (until it wasn’t). Just a brilliant feat of directing, from the acting to the super tight script to the unbelievable set design. I am still in disbelief that that house was 100% movie set!

    But what’s with you and subtitles? If you tell me that you prefer dubbed versions, I’m going to go full Z-man on your ass.

  216. Dink

    Parasite and Uncut Gems are my top picks for the year. KG is a solid actor. Still hate him tho.

    Good luck with the dating life, Hubert.

  217. Hubert

    Hell I use closed captions on Netflix so I’m cool with them. But I think it’s a foul to tell someone to see a movie and not mention that it isn’t in English.

  218. DRed

    Hubert I’m not exactly an expert on successful relationships but you’re not supposed to sleep through the movie

  219. Ntilakilla

    Time has definitely made it look less attractive. Smith

    I don’t think it fair to use what happened after the trade to detract from it in hindsight. That’s a teleological fallacy IMO. We were all taking a guess as to what the future would hold. We all knew Doncic was amazing, but there’s no way we could realistically anticipate him almost tripling his impressive .101 WS/48 from last season to a whopping .288 this season at age 21. And even so, the trade was made under very pressing circumstances, including the fact that KP and his brother/agent were intent on leaving here one way or another after we chose not to pick up his extension.

  220. Ntilakilla

    Anyway, what I thought was going to be 2+ hours of nap time turned out to be one of the better movies I’ve seen in an extremely long time. It’s in Korean so you have to endure subtitles but it’s worth it.

    Bong Joon-ho is arguably the greatest director working today. I am a major fan of his work. I haven’t seen Parasite yet.

    I saw Uncut Gems. It was a well made movie and Adam Sandler’s performance was Oscar worthy, but I was somewhat disappointed after all the hype.

  221. E

    Berman, February 10, 2019:

    Twenty months ago, the Celtics offered a boatload of young assets, and the Suns were prepared to ship Devin Booker and swap a draft pick that would have placed the Knicks in position to draft Lauri Markkanen. Former team president Phil Jackson thought the Finnish big man was built sturdier than Porzingis and would become more durable.

    The best reporting on the Celtics offer had the Celtics offering Brown, the 3 pick that became Tatum, and another lottery pick that the Celtics were going to obtain. The Knicks countered with Brown, the 3, one of the Nets picks the Celtics still had, and Crowder.

  222. rama got no use for your spurv plinth

    what kind of offer should we make going forward?…3 years at about 40 million, maybe?

    0 years at 0 million dollars per year

    I thought this was the post of the thread until ptmilo in 170.

    The KP trade discussion is top trolling. Moving goalposts, more snark and condescension than pith, a refusal to be specific – all the golden oldies. As Brian notes in 233, KP wasn’t even worth that much when he was healthy! I for one believe that someone (who knows who) made promises that KD and Kyrie would come, and thus the cap space was imperative. So in that moment in time, with a distressed asset about to face rape allegations, recovering from a torn ACL, due a max contract, who when heathy wouldn’t have netted more than some top picks (according to the only available reports), getting a few picks plus clearing cap space was a total win. Luka has devalued the picks; KD got injured and never came; we blew the cap space on poor decisions; and Smith has continued to suck. But that’s post facto stuff that has no bearing on the choices available at that time.

    The single insight of any value – that KP’s value isn’t based on his actual value but his perceived value – is destroyed by Brian’s recap of potential trades when he was healthy.

  223. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    What pissed me off the most about the trade was that we gave up the best player in the trade

    The Thunder gave up the best player in the Paul George trade and still it is looking like an enormous win for the Thunder.

    No one was happy about the salary dump beyond relief. It’s the feeling one might have upon unloading a car loan and remaining solvent, instead of going bankrupt over an ill-advised Maserati with a seized engine and blown transmission, whose variable APR is about to go from 1% to 25%.

  224. Brian Cronin

    I for one believe that someone (who knows who) made promises that KD and Kyrie would come, and thus the cap space was imperative.

    I believe they had assurances, as well, which is why I can’t knock the trade. However, if they didn’t have assurances, then I tend to agree that the trade was underwhelming. Not terrible, but not that impressive, either. Basically like a C. However, again, I think they had assurances that the trade was necessary to get Durant and another stud, so I can’t knock it. Then things fell apart because of Knicks, so of course Durant got hurt, ruining the whole situation.

  225. DRed

    Markkanen has also been injury prone and isn’t particularly good so that wouldn’t have really moved the needle. I can also never spell his name correctly the first time

  226. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    Just saw the news that Davis is hitting UFA this summer. Before I remembered his situation, I was shocked, but then I remembered, and here’s what’s going to happen. He’s going to sign a 1+1 player option and receive the largest supermax offer possible in the summer of 2022, which will be 35% of the cap, worth something like $250M over five.

    Here’s what’s not going to happen: Davis signs with the Knicks.

  227. rama got no use for your spurv plinth

    Here’s what’s not going to happen: Davis signs with the Knicks.

    Blasphemer!

  228. Grocer

    Here’s what’s not going to happen: Davis signs with the Knicks.

    But what if they build a new practice facility somewhere cooler than Westchester? It could still happen!

  229. geo

    Here’s what’s not going to happen: Davis signs with the Knicks.

    not without marcus morris on the team it sure will not…

  230. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    Is Brandon Ingram a RFA this offseason?

    Yup. I’d guess he’ll take the money if he gets a max offer.

  231. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    I don’t know how those things work. If he receives a sub-max offer sheet and the Pels don’t offer him the full one, he could very well take the QO and head into UFA with an ostensibly larger pool of suitors who don’t have to tie themselves in a knot while the Pels deliberately wait to match.

    Cronin probably knows better than I do the nuances of the RFA process.

  232. ptmilo

    ingram will get a max offer sheet and surely
    the pels will match so it won’t matter. greg monroe took the qo.

  233. Early Bird

    Nerlens Noel… hahahaha

    The whole Nerlens Noel saga is one of the strangest in NBA history.

    Marcus Morris SR. will land us exactly one player…

    Markieff!!! 3yrs @ $13 million de facto team option year 3 here we come!

  234. geo

    But what if they build a new practice facility somewhere cooler than Westchester? It could still happen!

    i always wondered if the msg versus westchester: play/practice situation was the worse in the nba…

  235. Early Bird

    Didn’t Westchester get shut down for being unplayable for the W-Knicks? I don’t think it’s just location. Did we ever find out what happened there?

  236. Z-man

    I have a great basketball memory from the practice facility in Westchester…about 5 years ago I got invited there to fill in for a team that forfeited in the Urban Prof League playoffs. It was pretty cool to see all the retired numbers on the wall, and John Starks and Charles Smith were there, couldn’t have been nicer. My scrub-ass 55yo (at that time) game looked way out of place during warmups…mostly younger, very athletic players. I said to my buddy “Damn, we’re gonna get our asses kicked!” He replied, “Don’t worry, you got Speedy.” I said “who’s Speedy?” He pointed to a 50-ish looking 5’10” guy who looked to be in decent shape but he wasn’t doing anything special and the kids on the other team were all doing reverse dunks and shit. And we had no subs so there was nowhere to hide me. Turns out that Speedy was James “Speedy” Williams, a Rucker Park legend, and he just utterly destroyed the younger guys with a CP3-like game (he could literally do anything he wanted) and we wound up winning by 4. For my part, I hit two jumpers but mainly set lots of screens, played the best D I could, and boxed out (kids have no idea how to do this.) The best part was that my 15yo son came along to watch!

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