On the whole I think the Knicks have played to form – no one playing way over his head, no huge disappointments. Felton was over his head for a while but at this point he’s right in line with his past #s – slightly better shooting percentages, but that’s no surprise with a better coach, better system and better teammates. (This year he’s shooting .344 on 3-pointers; last year was .385 and career mark is .330… on overall efficiency his TS% is 53.5; last year was 52.5 which was a good jump from his earlier career).

The Knick’s health has been better than average, so you might expect injuries to play a bigger role in the second half – but at the same time, they have several young players in the rotation who are likely to play better. To me that about evens out.

I’d say they’re right on target for 44, 45 wins. Barring a big trade or major injury.

For example, the comparison that aims to evaluate different measures (PER, WP, minutes played, etc.) as a predictor of wins – I think there are some inherent problems. For example, if you look at how minutes were allocated on a certain team, and use that to predict how the team does the next year – what are you really proving? Of course I may be missing a lot of details.

Dave Berri makes a more technical criticism in dissing the study:

“Berri and Bradbury (2010) critiqued an alternative approach advocated by Lewin and Rosenbaum (2007). These authors were examining a variety of measures used to evaluate NBA players (Wins Produced, PER, etc.). They begin by regressing a team’s efficiency differential (points scored per possession minus points surrendered per possession) on a team’s PER (or whatever metric was being examined). The result of this regression, plus the regression’s residual (or error term), was then used to evaluate players. This evaluation was then used to predict a team’s efficiency differential for the next season. The results indicated that the models could explain between 75% and 77% of future wins, suggesting that all models were the same. Of course, as any student of econometrics would know, any model plus the error term (as Lewin and Rosenbaum actually noted) would explain 100% of current wins. Appendix A notes that when one does not include the error term in the evaluation of a model, it’s clear Wins Produced does a better job of explaining wins than PERs or NBA Efficiency.”

Maybe an economist here (Crockett? Crockett?) can explain.

Brian Cronin:
Absolutely agree.I am not bummed about the Knicks’ season at all.I mean, during the game when they play horribly, of course I’m pissed (like when the second unit was in last night and they all seemed to wish to pass the ball until they found the worst shot possible).
And when I think about losing Gallo and Fields for the right to overpay Carmelo Anthony, I’m not the happiest of campers.But in general, I’m quite pleased with the Knicks.  

Coming into the season, with the acquisition of Amare, Felton and the expected development of Gallo and Chandler (in a contract year), I expect the Knicks to play 500 ball, at the very least, in the weak East. Maybe even a game or 2 above. After the next game, they will be at 22-21, just about what is expected. Can’t say I am pleased with such a record. I don’t have a good feeling that NYK will be able to hold on to the 6th seed at the end of the season

GHenman:

Is there anyone here who thought the Knicks record would have been better than 22-19 at this point in the season? If so, why? I think most Knick fans would have to be happy with the teams performance so far this year despite the recent slump?

You make a good point and I was going to ask that this morning. I saved my win loss prediction from the preseason and I had the Knicks at .500 at this point of the year (21-21 counting the Magic game that was postponed) The actual Knicks have won games I would have never expected them to win, but they lost a number of games that I didn’t think they would lose too. So the Knicks arent far from what I thought they would be at the start of the year.

The problem is that I adjusted my expectations upward when I saw how good this team can play when everything is working the on offense. Now that I’ve seen them beat the Spurs at home and give the Celtics all they could handle, I expect this team to destroy the Cavs and the Kings and the rest of that ilk. So yes the team is better–record wise–than I predicted at this point, but the arent better than they have shown us they can be. We all adjust expectations as we get more information.

Mr. Felton needs to shape up, skill-wise. He has a great attitude, but is clearly nonplussed. Could someone please remind him that he’s a point guard? No need to take the ball straight to the basket repeatedly without (a) letting any other players touch it or (b) making the shot. Boo hoo.

My love, Wilson, has become very timid as of late. Is it my affection that’s making him nervous? Doesn’t he know I love him unconditionally? That the love can only grow to greater extremes when he plays up to his potential, demands the ball and makes his shots?

Landry continues to be the intelligence of the team. He’s always positioned well, active, ready for rebounds and ready to help the team. This week he puts the IQ in “all other NBA teams better qUIt because the NYK are going to put them all to shame”.

Amar’e. Hmmm. I realize the refs were against you last night and didn’t call anything. However, expecting a call seems to slow you down. Play, man. Get the basket!!! And stop with these ridiculous turnovers. You are too tall and too good to play at the level you brought last night. As a fellow height champion (comparatively measuring in at 5’9 1/2?), I’m disappointed.

That’s all for this afternoon. I think our boys can win the next two games. Go Wilson. In your honor, my boyfriend is now referred to as “the white Wilson”. oxooxxxo

That is insane!

Oh, wait a second, this is when Camby missed a game and seemed distracted when he returned because of his sister, right? That actually makes sense, then.

GHenman: Is there anyone here who thought the Knicks record would have been better than 22-19 at this point in the season?If so, why?I think most Knick fans would have to be happy with the teams performance so far this year despite the recent slump.  

I think my overconfidence in the team began when they started playing well (2010/11/17) to when they recently defeated Portland (2011/01/11). Overall during that timespan, they had a 19-7 record with the losses coming from Atlanta, Boston, Miami x2, Cleveland, Orlando, and the Lakers. Losing to those teams (with the exception of Cleveland) is completely acceptable at this point. I was just confident now that we can beat the teams we should beat (Sac, NJ, Wash etc.), make a few surprises (the Spurs win), and be on the level of the Bulls, Nuggets and Thunder. The 4th quarter increase in defensive effort that I kinda got used to has disappeared for whatever reason. And I guess I’m just overreacting a bit since we lost against sub .500 teams. If they were let’s say, Boston, Dallas, and the New Orleans, it wouldn’t have bothered me as much.