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Friday, October 31, 2014

Nets Drop Pursuit of Carmelo Anthony

According to ESPN.com, the New Jersey Nets’ owner Mikhail Prokhorov has ordered the team to cease their pursuit of acquiring Carmelo Anthony.

This might just be bluster, but if not, this could be a huge blow to Denver’s leverage when it comes to dealing with the New York Knicks.

What do you folks think this means for the Melo-drama?

128 comments on “Nets Drop Pursuit of Carmelo Anthony

  1. BigBlueAL

    If the Knicks can now lower a package that includes just Curry, draft picks and 1 of Gallo/WC/Fields, cant say we could complain too much about that.

  2. Robert Silverman

    Wow. Unless this is some brilliant Russian chess move I’ve never heard of, pulling out gives the Knicks MASSIVE leverage. Donnie, time to channel your inner “Proposition Joe.”

  3. tastycakes

    Melo has created a situation where the Nuggets options look like this:

    – Dare Melo to walk away from the extension with a potential lockout looming.
    – Take whatever the Knicks offer.
    – Hope that a dark horse like the Mavs comes in willing to trade for a rental.

    The Knicks don’t have to offer up the farm. At this point, if Melo is *truly* committed to walking away from the Nugs (not a certainty with the CBA situation), they may not have any choice but to take what the Knicks give them at the deadline. I think Gallo or Chandler + Curry + Randolph (or whatever Randolph returns) with no picks is *more* than generous. (Not that it matters, I’m happy with a trade if we only lose one active rotation player and no picks, but I’d be happier if we lost none).

  4. Robert Silverman

    Jimmy C:
    Let’s just hope Dolan isn’t simultaneously channeling his inner Chris Partlow.  

    Who’s Melo in this “The Wire”/Knicks metaphor? Omar? Cheese?

  5. d-mar

    @7 I don’t think any of the teams in the “rent-a-Melo” scenario have much more to offer than the Knicks, so it would come down to how badly Denver doesn’t want to do a deal with NY.

  6. Jimmy C

    I hate to say it, but I think Omar might be Eddie Curry: living in the shadows, good at heart, loves the kids…. but stealing to make a living.

  7. Robert Silverman

    tastycakes: All I know is that David Kahn = Herc.  

    I beg to differ. David Kahn clearly = Frank Sobotka.

    And while we’re on the subject, how do you think Redman reacted when they said, “Yeah, you can be on the show, but your character is named ‘Cheese’.”

  8. JK47

    It would be pretty childish of the Nuggets to take less for Melo than he would get from the Knicks just so Melo doesn’t get what he wants. The Knicks play in the other conference so it’s not like you’re trading him to a rival team.

  9. Brian Cronin

    I hate to say it, but I think Omar might be Eddie Curry: living in the shadows, good at heart, loves the kids…. but stealing to make a living.

    Curry walks like Omar in Season 5.

  10. Robert Silverman

    Jimmy C: I hate to say it, but I think Omar might be Eddie Curry: living in the shadows, good at heart, loves the kids…. but stealing to make a living.  

    We could belabor this further by comparing Omar’s sexuality to Eddy Curry’s alleged “Touch it.” comment to his driver/the guy who sued him. But that’d be unseemly, right?

  11. tastycakes

    Oh, I like the Sobotka comparison. Kahn also runs an organization that is falling apart around him. I was mostly just thinking of relative intelligence.

    It was Method Man, not Redman :)

  12. Jimmy C

    Robert Silverman:
    We could belabor this further by comparing Omar’s sexuality to Eddy Curry’s alleged “Touch it.” comment to his driver/the guy who sued him. But that’d be unseemly, right?  

    Thought about going there. Count it.

  13. Robert Silverman

    tastycakes: Oh, I like the Sobotka comparison.Kahn also runs an organization that is falling apart around him.I was mostly just thinking of relative intelligence.It was Method Man, not Redman :)  

    D’oh! Thanks Tasty.

    Kahn even kinda looks like Sobotka. Maybe Melo = Marlo Stansfield. Wants to run the game. Doesn’t know exactly how to do it. Causes havoc all around him.

    Changing my mind again. I’m hoping Donnie Walsh = The Greek. Old man who has seen everything and waits for the perfect moment to strike

  14. Jimmy C

    Ok last one, I promise. Fields = McNulty? Too smart for his own good, always on a mission, and undoubtedly smooth with the ladies.

  15. DS

    If Donne is Prop. Joe then ‘Melo is crack and we are, collectively, Bubbles.

    I wonder why Chicago doesn’t get involved. Denver would prob. do better with Taj Gibson, Deng (I know they don’t love his contract), Brewer and a draft pick than with whatever the Knicks are offering. Also, sending J.R. Smith to Chicago makes a lot of sense for both teams.

  16. Robert Silverman

    Jimmy C: Ok last one, I promise. Fields = McNulty? Too smart for his own good, always on a mission, and undoubtedly smooth with the ladies.  

    Fields = Griggs. Quietly devastating. McNulty is too much of a wildcard/troublemaker. Amar’e = McNulty. Amber Rose, anyone?

  17. Robert Silverman

    DS: If Donne is Prop. Joe then ‘Melo is crack and we are, collectively, Bubbles.
      

    That’s my nominee for posting of the month.

  18. Robert Silverman

    Jimmy C:
    Well-played.  

    Danke. I’ve clearly spent WAY too much time thinking about this. Mental note to self – get a life.

  19. art vandelay

    I am trying to figure out who was really missing in action and out of the lineup the last 5-6 games…gallinari or felton?…would be nice to see him back on the court and back to form tonight….

  20. TheRant

    Robert Silverman: Fields = Griggs. Quietly devastating. McNulty is too much of a wildcard/troublemaker. Amar’e = McNulty. Amber Rose, anyone?

    Earlier this week, I got the wonderful opportunity to meet Landry Fields in a relatively small group. It was after the MLK game against Phoenix and a group of us spent time with Robin Lopez, Josh Childress, and Fields.

    One of the most striking things about the meeting was how affable and gregarious Fields was. On the court, he seems all business, lets his game do the talking. Off the court, he showed up with about ten times the presence of Childress and Lopez combined (despite the fact that we had just lost). Cracking jokes, laughing at everything, pretty much the coolest kid in class.

    I have to say, he was far more McNulty than Griggs. Actually, he seemed more Clyde than anyone (and I don’t take that comparison lightly). Clyde always seems outgoing, friendly, and talkative. And then you put him on the court and he silently destroys you.

  21. Robert Silverman

    TheRant:
    Earlier this week, I got the wonderful opportunity to meet Landry Fields in a relatively small group.It was after the MLK game against Phoenix and a group of us spent time with Robin Lopez, Josh Childress, and Fields.One of the most striking things about the meeting was how affable and gregarious Fields was.On the court, he seems all business, lets his game do the talking.Off the court, he showed up with about ten times the presence of Childress and Lopez combined (despite the fact that we had just lost).Cracking jokes, laughing at everything, pretty much the coolest kid in class.I have to say, he was far more McNulty than Griggs.Actually, he seemed more Clyde than anyone (and I don’t take that comparison lightly).Clyde always seems outgoing, friendly, and talkative.And then you put him on the court and he silently destroys you.  

    Very cool. What question(s) did you end up asking him?

  22. taggart4800

    How about we bring Dallas in and swing them Al Buckets and JR Smith to add them depth and they get one of our picks and possibly Williams or Bill W. We take RBalk and Melo and send two picks, Curry, Chandler, Azu along with Dallas shifting Caron Butler to the Nuggets.

    Denver gets a solid replacement for Melo and possibly Caron Butler if they still make the playoffs, aswell as big cap relief and picks.

    Dallas gets depth at 2 and 3 spots aswell as scoring power and a pick

    We get Melo and a reminder of the good ol’ days of knicks ball and scouting…….

  23. cgreene

    Sorry to be late to the party but I believe DAntoni’s SSoL is a little like Bunny Colvin’s Hamsterdam. Unorthodox but effective yet ultimately doomed to fail.

  24. Z

    Wow– an entire thread about the Knicks and I barely understand a single word of it. Never thought that would happen :)

  25. Jimmy C

    cgreene: Sorry to be late to the party but I believe DAntoni’s SSoL is a little like Bunny Colvin’s Hamsterdam.Unorthodox but effective yet ultimately doomed to fail.  

    That’s awesome.

  26. taggart4800

    Deals Dallas and Bulls could offer are not amazing really. Bulls can offer a lot of talent but no releif and the Mavericks deal is not really different to the best we could offer and without the picks.

  27. art vandelay

    I find it very frustrating to be a fan of a team that more often than not doesn’t even make a discernible attempt to play defense!

  28. art vandelay

    When was the last time a team didn’t almost score 40 points against us in the first quarter???

  29. Frank O.

    How is it that the Knicks seem to have become so uncertain?
    I mean the feel of this team is so tentative.
    The ball doesn’t move as well, open shots aren’t dropping and the guys seem genuinely dispassionate.
    Very frustrating

  30. art vandelay

    yes, they appear mildly interested at best in the game, to be quite honest….shades of Knicks 2002-2009

  31. Brian Cronin

    Essentially, I don’t think both Gallo and Amar’e should ever be off of the court. They need to run the offense through one of them (when Amar’e is there, obviously him, but when he is not, they’d be well-served to run it through Gallo).

    And D’Antoni seems diametrically opposed to doing so with Gallo.

  32. Frank O.

    I think williams has fallen off significantly. He’s hurting the Knicks and his defense is terrible.
    walker seems to have regressed, too.

  33. Brian Cronin

    I think williams has fallen off significantly. He’s hurting the Knicks and his defense is terrible.
    walker seems to have regressed, too.

    Williams was great for what he was – a guy to get you back-up minutes. D’Antoni insists on making him and Walker a “unit.”

  34. art vandelay

    I think Walker and Williams frankly have simply reverted to the mean….they are not dependable night-in, night-out bench contributors…they are fine for 10-15 mins a game….once they start playing meaningful minutes we are expecting too much from them, nor should they be put in that situation….but the team lacks depth….or at least d’antoni is not willing to play mozgov or randolph so we have little recourse except to play them as if they were leandro barbosa.

  35. Owen

    “Does any here not want Carmelo?”

    Does anyone not want someone who perfectly duplicates what our current relatively overrated max player does on the court???

    Ahh….

    I definitely don’t want Carmelo. At best he is in the 30-40 range of best players in the NBA. At worst, well.

    It’s clear New York didn’t learn much from the Isiah Era’s obsession with scoring…

  36. John Kenney

    I cannot believe Sheridan. So the Nets dropping out helps us because…. we offer the exact same deal he’s been saying we should make all along? Newsflash: Trading Landry would be criminal at this point. AND we have the leverage, so we should continue to hold firm. Sheridan seems like he’s a closet nuggets fan trying to scare donnie walsh into giving up fields.

  37. latke

    Owen — Doesn’t Wade duplicate James? Fine — you say they’re multi-faceted players. Then doesn’t Paul Pierce duplicate what Ray Allen does? Now you will come back with the efficiency argument, but Paul Pierce’s efficency pre-big-three was similar to Carmelo’s. Ray Allen’s was lower then Amare’s. Amare plays inside, and Carmelo is a slasher; they’re less similar (and I would argue less talented — Amare being more valuable than Allen, ‘Melo around equal to Pierce) than Pierce and Allen.

    I think it’s fair to say that the big man who anchors our defense and can still run and shoot would be optimal, but I don’t think it’s fair to categorize adding ‘Melo as an Isiah move.

  38. Owen

    Latke – Well, it’s not fair since Carmelo actually rates out as an above average player, unlike most of the guys Isiah paid through the gills for (Curry, Marbury, and Crawford.) But anyway you slice it, Carmelo just isn’t an elite NBA player. That should be the takeway from the Pelton, Berri, Silver smackdown. He might be near average. He might be pretty good. But he isn’t close to elite.

    And there is a huge difference in the NBA between the top 10 players and the next 25. Really, there is a huge difference between the top 5 and everyone else. It’s not a steady climb. Most of the wins are concentrated at the top.

    Which is why it’s borderline insane to give Melo a max contract. He’ll cost us a chance to get a legitimate superstar.

    Re Allen and Pierce, are those the guys who matter in Boston? Cause I kind of thought Rondo and Garnett were the engine of that team…

    and Re Bron and Wade, they are both a ton better than Amare and Melo. It isn’t close. Carmelo is currently rocking a 52.2% ts%. That sound like a superstar to you?

  39. ess-dog

    It’s amazing how the Melo argument has no real end…
    At the end of the day, I’d rather have a really good 4 seed for 5 years than a bunch of “potential” that never gets reached. If we can trade two 21 yr olds (Gallo and AR) for Melo I’m fine with it. Anything more gets shaky. And remember, we can always trade Melo if it doesn’t work out…

  40. Will the Thrill

    The Knicks defense is so bad that is seems like we need to score every time down the court without losing ground in the game. Amare is forcing it a lot but I can’t really blame him when everyone else is doing absolutely nothing offensively… nobody seems to have the touch offensively anymore and when that happens, we don’t have a chance with our defense. I don’t really know how they are going to get out of this funk without making a trade or a change in the game plan because they all look totally lost on defense now.

  41. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    I believe that many people have a difficult time understanding just how important a few hundredths of a point is when it comes to eFG% and TS% and player value.

    The difference between Shaq, the all-time leader in eFG%, and the #100 player, Tom Owens, is .0688 — not even 7 hundredths of a point. As you go down the list, the curve becomes less drastic, and it becomes apparent that as shooting improves linearly, value increases exponentially. A player like Carmelo, who is only slightly above-average with respect to efficiency, does not even approach a superstar level, irregardless of his effect on his teammates. Even if he does benefit his teammates, it’s like, as Steve Buscemi once said, robbing Peter to pay Paul. It doesn’t make any sense.

  42. DS

    I’m generally sort of indifferent about Jon Barry but I think he makes a pretty good argument on why the Nets deal might still be alive. In a nutshell, the Nuggets prob. won’t get a much better deal than receiving Favors, some 1st round picks, and unloading some larger contracts. And the Nets don’t seem to want to be in the business of patiently building around Lopez. All of this seems to supersede a declaration by Prokhorov today that the deal is off.

    God – I miss the good old days when the only source for trade rumors was the NY Post. You could just tune them out.

  43. latke

    Owen –

    I realize that ‘Melo is not a top dog that he’s probably not even a top 20 player, and I’m really ambivalent about whether the knicks get him even at the price of say Wilson Chandler and a couple of picks. I do think, however, that you can’t overlook the effect the Miami hookup has had on other stars around the league. If you have Carmelo and Amare, it seems to me that’s going to lead to a lot of other stars looking at the knicks as a way of being a part of their own big three. If it’s Amare and Nene or Amare and Gasol, I’m not so sure the knicks have that same appeal, and as we’ve seen in the Carmelo situation, if a player wants to go to a certain team and his contract is expiring, it’s not too hard for him to orchestrate it so that his cost in a trade drops precipitously.

    If I was Donnie Walsh, I would either be doing whatever I could right now to give me the best odds of getting Deron Williams or Chris Paul, or I’d be very secretly considering what other head coaches are available. IMO if we’d started the season with one of them instead of Felton, we’d be up in the 28+ win range. It’s not that Felton has been bad. He’s played way better than we could expect, but I’m just not sure he has the point guard skills (i.e. passing, court vision) to ever pilot a team playing SSOL to championship contention.

    Someone in a post somewhere on one of the threads today said something about how SSOL says “take the first shot,” which puts all our players in these tough positions where they have to make split-second decisions. The reality though is that if you have the right point guard, he’s going to be making 90% of the tough choices. He’s amazing at finishing plays, and in a sense so are Chandler and Gallo. Their shooting forces teams to close out, and if those teams do, they are good at throwing headfakes and causing chaos. They are not good initiators though. We need that superstar initiator to be the brain of our offense.

  44. Ben R

    I blame Amare more than Felton for this recent slide. Amare doesn’t even try to run the pnr anymore. It’s run to the high elbow and call for the ball. I hate iso basketball and it is clearly not Amare’s strength. The fourth quarter was a mess, running isos with Amare obviously wasn’t working yet we kept doing it.

    Defensively we need to get alot more physical. We get hit and banged everytime down the court but then we play defense like we’re scared of getting fouls, especially Amare and Chandler, neither of them are aggressive anymore. The refs seem to be letting teams play more and if thats the case we need to respond by playing as physical as our opponents. When the refs call a loose game we get killed. The best way to disrupt our team is to smack em in the nose. Teams have realized that it’s easy to frustrate Amare by being physical. It gets in his head and then he starts pressing.

    It’s not that the refs are hosing us it’s that their letting both teams play physically but we’re afraid to push back. I would rather have Amare foul out in 30 minutes than get the passive defense and rebounding we’ve been getting lately.

    We’re a good team but Amare and Felton have stopped trusting Gallo, Wilson and Fields so their both domnating the ball. If we’re just going to iso and watch we might as well get Melo cause thats his game. Then we can run down the court nail Gallo to one corner, Williams to the other, let Felton either give it to melo on one elbow or Amare on the other and we can watch them take contested shot after contested shot, it’ll be awesome. (I’m being facetious, I don’t actually want melo)

  45. Frank

    I’m no basketball coach and I’ll freely admit my knowledge of basketball X’s and O’s is minimal. But even so -I’d like to introduce a new rule: NO PASSING THE BALL TO AMARE ON THE RUN ABOVE THE FOUL LINE EXTENDED. Break this rule, and you are guaranteed a turnover.

    Dude is a ridiculous finisher at the rim. He’s a pretty damn good mid-range jump shooter. I love his attitude, his shotblocking, his leadership. But he is A BAD DRIBBLER OF THE BASKETBALL.

    And Earth to Amare – maybe the 6324th time you get the ball poked away by Chuck Hayes, try something different, protect the ball better, something. And Felton/D’Antoni – run a different play after the 366th turnover/pokeaway/wild shot into triple team in crunch time.

    Another new rule: when you are guarding a super-quick point guard (say, Aaron Brooks) who LOVES to drive and finish right, at least make some attempt to make him go to his weaker hand. Just a little effort would make a big difference.

    Games like this drive me crazy. Not only did the Knicks lose every loose ball (a lot of it seemed like plain bad luck), they also did none of the little things to get the W. Stupid double teaming even by our favorite Landry Fields, crazy defensive gambles from DWTDD (who thinks he’s quicker than any guard in the league when he really just isn’t), pigheaded face-palming drives by Amare into triple teams — it just couldn’t get any worse.

    Whew. That felt good.

    Anyone want to trade for Melo and the Birdman? He and Turiaf would make a very entertaining pair at the 5, 4+year contract notwithstanding.

    @59 – actually pretty interesting. not sure that SA would trade Splitter for 1/2 season of Chandler given Chandler does much of what RJ does, but it’s not bad….

  46. rama

    latke –

    Why would the Spurs make that trade? And who would play the 2 for us if you include Fields?

  47. DS

    @61

    If we landed Nene and ‘Melo for Fields and Chandler you would worry about who would play the 2???

    Latke – The Nuggs would get absolutely hosed in that trade. ‘Melo AND Nene?? I like that you’re thinking outside the box though.

  48. d-mar

    @60 well said, my frustrations exactly. Why does Amare never set high screens any more? It’s always dump the ball to him and watch him go one on one.

    It also drives me nuts when guys like Chase Budinger suddenly have career games against us, mostly by pure hustle and wanting the rebounds more than our guys.

  49. DS

    One point I feel no one has raised is that the Nuggets may not view letting ‘Melo walk as a FA as such a disaster.

    They would make the playoffs this year, go into next year w/ Billups, Lawson, J.R., Nene, Birdman, Affalo, and Forbes, a ton of expirings, and possibly a huge trade exception for Carmelo.

    Obviously, getting Derrick Favors at a rookie contract, getting rid of some of their bad contracts, and getting some draft picks would be better. But if that’s their “worst-case scenario,” it’s not so bad.

    Which may be good for the Knicks!

  50. Caleb

    @59 Great for Spurs, good for Magic, so-so for Knicks, awful for Nuggets.

    This could easily go for a while – i know it’s nerve-wracking but Nuggets will probably just wait for the best offer at the deadline. If Melo caves on the extension, that’s gonna be the Nets. If not – who knows?

    I think Melo would look terrific here – he had a 58+ TS% as a 21-year-old, hit the 56+ range a few times with incredibly high usage rates and was a star among stars at the Olympics…
    He’s an average or worse defender, but as things stand he is the best rebounding SF in the league.

    With less of the scoring burden, i.e. a usage rate around 25, I think his TS would head back to the 57 or 58 range, i.e. great. He’s also just 26 years old and very durable, which makes him more valuable than a lot of players who might be “better” when they’re firing on all cylinders.

    All in all, I probably would put him as one of the 20 or 25 most valuable players in the league. So do you make the trade?

    Money is the biggest question. A max salary, or anything over $15 million really, and there’s a good chance you sink your chances of signing one of the Holy Trinity of 2012. So, I kind of lean against it.

    But it’s not an easy call. Aside from those three, Melo might be the best player to come available, around the league, in the next 2-3 years. There might be 20 players better, but most have zero chance of moving. And potential’s one thing, but IMO Melo would be better in NY than Gallo, Chandler or Randolph are likely to ever be. With the right team around him and Stoudemire – low-usage players, good defenders and/or very efficient) – say, Gallo, Randolph, Fields, Felton and a FA center like Nene or Dalembert – you might be a contender.

    To be continued…

  51. Caleb

    ….continued!

    The CBA is a big question mark. If the owners wet dreams come true, the cap will be a lot tighter and there might even be extra restrictions on star players – which might make our dreams of Howard, Willams and CP3 go up in smoke. (those kind of restrictions would be bad for the league, but that’s another story).

    In that scenario, getting Melo now (without giving up the farm) might be the best default option.

    On the other hand, if Melo really wants to be here – and is willing to give up a ton of money to do it – signing him this summer (or next winter, whenever the lockout is over) would be the best move of all.

    All those considerations are more about what salary the Knicks should offer, i.e. what kind of extension we would offer Melo. As far as a trade package, it would be foolish to give up more than Chandler or Gallo plus one future first – maybe 2 late 1st-rounders. No one beside the Nets can offer the Nuggets a better package.

  52. marxster

    I think we could make things work with or without Melo. I just wish this decision could be made now so that we can finally look around to see if we can’t find a big man and a backup point guard.

    Being “on hold” like this drives me nuts.

    The Knicks are playing as if they are waiting for reinforcements to come bail them out.

    I also wish that D’Antoni would have swallowed his pride and hired Lawrence Franck as defensive coordinator when they had a chance.

    I’m starting to believe that he can’t coach defense.

  53. Frank

    Re: Melo’s extension – is there a reason I don’t know that it’s always called a 3-year $65M max extension at ~22M/year? Could we offer him a 5 year extension worth, say, $75-80M starting at $14M per? If he wants to come here for slightly less money (or start him at whatever Lebron and co are making in MIA) that’d be a good PR move. Of course he might not like AMare making $20M while he’s making $14M, but giving him more years of guaranteed $ might make up for it. Would also give us more flexibility in 2012.

    If we’re going to trade so many assets for him, I’d rather lock him down for 4-5 years rather than 3, then have to renegotiate another extension at that point.

  54. Frank

    DS: One point I feel no one has raised is that the Nuggets may not view letting ‘Melo walk as a FA as such a disaster.
    They would make the playoffs this year, go into next year w/ Billups, Lawson, J.R., Nene, Birdman, Affalo, and Forbes, a ton of expirings, and possibly a huge trade exception for Carmelo.Obviously, getting Derrick Favors at a rookie contract, getting rid of some of their bad contracts, and getting some draft picks would be better. But if that’s their “worst-case scenario,” it’s not so bad.
    Which may be good for the Knicks!  

    I think they’d much rather have the same salary relief (ie. Curry’s expiring + Azubuike etc.) + young talent on rookie scale contracts (ie. Gallo, Fields, etc.) + draft picks than just have a trade exception. No one knows what trade exceptions will even mean in the new CBA. They’d end up in the same position as Toronto and Cleveland, and they’ve pretty said they don’t want to end up empty-handed like that.

  55. Caleb

    @68 I’m too lazy to read through the salary cap FAQ but I’m pretty sure that extensions are limited to 3 years.. to do a five-year or six-year deal you have to let your contract expire.

    (the other thing about extensions is you’re only allowed to offer one to a player whose original contract is three years or longer, meaning we can’t jump ahead and try to lock up Landry Fields).

  56. Caleb

    fwiw, I don’t think the Nuggets don’t get a trade exception just letting Carmelo walk – they have to actually make a trade. It usually works out that way, though – helps everyone (Nuggets get the trade exception, Carmelo gets an extra year, Knicks can make it a 2nd rounder protected through #59 so it doesn’t hurt).

    This year is different, though – the CBA is changing, exceptions might go away and FAs probably won’t be able to sign until the lockout is over, which could take forever.

  57. Frank

    marxsterI also wish that D’Antoni would have swallowed his pride and hired Lawrence Franck as defensive coordinator when they had a chance.
    I’m starting to believe that he can’t coach defense.  

    I’m starting to think the same way.
    I wonder whether personal/family loyalty is why he refuses to hire a real defensive coach. Numerous articles over the last few months have indicated that Dan D’Antoni is in charge of the defense — would be a good reason why he won’t hire anyone else.

    http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CBsQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nydailynews.com%2Fblogs%2Fknicks%2F2010%2F10%2Fknicks-focus-on-defense-thanks.html&ei=Alw4TYeCDMvpgAftp6nSCA&usg=AFQjCNGFQjOD4JACOmc5VZQGxM8yQl7_eg

    http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&cd=2&ved=0CCIQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nypost.com%2Fp%2Fsports%2Fknicks%2Flight_ful_x1p1X3wWTO6D4Vijqf63gJ&ei=Alw4TYeCDMvpgAftp6nSCA&usg=AFQjCNGggHKgSQFadertBzAxS_KK1iiAfQ

  58. ess-dog

    Quotes by D’Antoni in the recent Hahn fix state that he 100% believes that Amare at center gives us an advantage 10 times out of 10. It sounds like that is a permanent move.
    And yet, Amare plays passive man defense (yes he gets a lot of weakside blocks, but he’s soft on his man.) And on top of that, our 4 is grossly undersized and gets posted fairly easily.
    Our 3 is a bit too slow to handle good 3’s and too light to handle 4’s.
    The defense IS a problem!
    At least with Melo we could definitively outscore opposing 3’s and 5’s.
    Although Ray’s been bad as of late, he’s generally a good defensive 1. Landry seems pretty good, especially with TD helping out on smaller guys.
    We really need a tall, strong defensive 4 who can push out people trying to post up. Turiaf is great as a back up to the 4 and 5 and Chandler can only do so much there.
    Basically if Chandler and Gallo aren’t going to be deadeye shooters, the offense doesn’t work and it’s really hard to stop anybody with that slight lineup.

  59. latke

    The four way trade ( http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=4nwvwas ) would also include picks going from San Antonio and Orlando to Denver, or alternatively Orlando or SAS’s pick could go to NY, and NY could then send two first rounders to Denver. Heck, San Antonio might even give up two of their shitty picks for Chandler. They did it a while back for Nazr Mohammed. The one thing SA is missing is a wing that can play defense. Chandler fills that void and more. He’s better than RJ in almost every way.

    The nuggets end up with: Fields, plus 3-4 1st round picks, plus 2 young guys (Splitter and Clark) who have potential to be decent players, plus Walker, who they apparently covet. IMO that’s a decent haul of assets.

  60. ess-dog

    Here’s Chris Sheridan’s guess on a Melo trade:

    “At the end of the day, it comes down to a question of what is a fair price?

    The guess here is that if the Knicks acquire Anthony, they will give up Chandler or Gallinari (not both), Fields, Walker, Anthony Randolph (or a No. 1 obtained through a Randolph trade), Eddy Curry, plus an additional No. 1 pick (perhaps New York’s own 2014 pick), with the Knicks getting back an additional big body — something they’ve been scouring the league for throughout December and the first half of January. And I’m not necessarily saying the Nuggets would be taking on all those pieces, because a three-team trade might make it easier for everyone to walk away satisfied.”

    The big in the equation? You would have to think it would be Birdman if from the Nuggs. I’d hate to give up Landry. Who would play the 2? I assume there would be a 3 team trade on this one where we get a 2 or another big. Or uh, we could just play Randolph or Moz more. Honestly I’d rather just play our guys and get a 2 back from someone else… but again…. give up Landry? damn….

  61. rama

    latke –

    Sure, the Spurs could use Wil, but they locked up RJ for another few years, so I just don’t see them going for the trade. And again, we’d have no 2 (unless you count TD) – though I do hear DS’s point that, with Nene, Amare, Melo, and Feltoni (had to make his name end in a vowel in that group), what does your 2 matter?

    Either way, I think your trade is creative, but the Spurs don’t do it because of having RJ locked up.

  62. Jimmy C

    ESPN Insider now claiming that Azu’s insurance-covered contract has become a “valuable trade chip”.

    Not sure if that drastically changes the equation or not, but if — IF — he can manage to get healthy again that might not be a bad asset for the Nuggets. At the very least they have that money in cap space going forward.

  63. Z

    @68 / 70

    The ‘Melo extension be a 4 year contract and would run through 2015. The extension begins after his current contract expires, which isn’t until 2012 (this summer is an option year. If he extends the option year is picked up and then the extension is three years on top of that). So, if he extends, his 2011-2012 salary will be $18.5 million. If he signs a max extension his 2012-2013 salary would be $20.4 million.

    If he extends for less, I think his 2011-12 salary would have to remain $18.5. Then in 2012 I guess it would shrink down to whatever he agrees to. Not sure if this is the way it would work, or if it’s even possible (or realistic), but I’m pretty sure this is the way it would have to be.

  64. Caleb

    @IMO Sheridan is a decent reporter but a complete idiot on things like this, when he’s proposing ideas.

    I count his “fair” deal as the Knicks giving up 5 solid assets, including 3 that are basically lottery picks (Gallo/Chandler, Fields and yes, AR).

    That’s at least 2 too many, maybe 3 too many.

    The worst-case trade scenario for the Knicks is a team like Houston or Dallas getting Carmelo, and the new CBA including a franchise player tag so he is basically forced to re-sign.

    But even that’s not as bad as completely gutting the team for Carmelo.

    The franchise player/tight cap scenario cuts both ways – if player movement is gone or limited, there won’t be other opportunities to get a star player like Carmelo – but there also won’t be a way to round up decent sidekicks, and you’d better get it right the first time.

    Carmelo/Stoudemire/Gallo/felton is not a contender – sorry.

    Better off just keeping the current roster and hoping that two of the young guys eventually hit the next level.

    Odds aren’t that bad, but it’s still depressing. Why do David Stern and some owners think it helps fan interest to strip teams of the opportunity to add good players? Hooray, we can put a franchise tag on Kevin Love. Sure, we can’t ever sign a decent player to go with him, but hope is back in Minnesota!
    Competitive risk-taking and creativity will be punished; instead the deck will be further stacked to favor badly run teams that are so incompletent they land in the lottery again and again.

  65. Caleb

    @79 That is correct – the extension kicks in after his current deal ends.

    One question – if there’s no trade, what would Carmelo do? If it looks like a lockout, is there any advantage or disadvantage to him exercising his option before June 30, not becoming a FA and guaranteeing the $18.5 million for 2011-2012?

    I don’t know what precedent is, if when a deal is struck players get back any of the salary they lost during the lockout. But $18.5 million is probably more than the next CBA will allow as a starting salary. If we expect a lockout going well into next season… who knows? He might decide to do this all again!

  66. TheRant

    Caleb: Why do David Stern and some owners think it helps fan interest to strip teams of the opportunity to add good players? Hooray, we can put a franchise tag on Kevin Love. Sure, we can’t ever sign a decent player to go with him, but hope is back in Minnesota!

    Word.

  67. ess-dog

    “Carmelo/Stoudemire/Gallo/felton is not a contender – sorry.

    Better off just keeping the current roster and hoping that two of the young guys eventually hit the next level.”

    Agreed, but not sure if we are better off standing pat either. At least until the rules change, I think that our #1 priority should be to keep room for the 2012 pg’s and Howard. Those are the difference makers.
    Actually if we can keep Gallo and one of Chandler/Randolph in a trade I’d feel ok with it. I just don’t know how we can do this and still keep our cap space, especially if we have to resign Chandler.
    If the goal is to have CP3/xxx/Melo/Gallo/Stat, bench of AR/TD, Shawne, Rautins, Moz by 2012 then sign me up.

  68. Brian Cronin

    I don’t know what precedent is, if when a deal is struck players get back any of the salary they lost during the lockout.

    Players lost all the salary they were not paid during the lockout.

  69. ess-dog

    Also, D’Antoni says still no p.t. for AR. He’s stuck behind Shawne in the rotation b/c Shawne is killin it from 3. If a pf were to go down, he’d get some time.

    Good to know I guess.

  70. Z

    Since the looming lockout/new CBA seems to emphasize getting your shopping done early this year, how about a trade that looks like this:

    Denver gets: Gallinari, Walker, Azubuike, Felton, and Vince Carter
    Phoenix gets: Curry, Randolph, and Billups
    New York gets: Anthony, Lawson, Frye, and Nash

    Flesh it out with picks.

    Nuggets get “all star” Ray Felton, up-and comer Gallinari, salary savings, and an attraction to fill ‘Melo’s shoes for a few months.

    Suns get their favorite thing in the world: salary savings!, plus Randolph, plus an all NBA replacement for Nash.

    Knicks get a starting PG upgrade, a backup PG upgrade, a center who can shoot 3s, and Carmelo Anthony while keeping Chandler and Fields.

  71. Caleb

    fwiw, during the Hollinger chat there was an Anthony Randolph question from a fan in Minnesota.

    Eric (Minneapolis)
    Is Anthony Randolph worth a protected 1st round pick? Or is it a possible steal like Beasley. Right place right time.

    John Hollinger
    (2:35 PM)
    I’d say so, as long as the protections are very strict. I still think he has the potential to be a Camby-esque defender and rebounder, and he can really handle the ball for his size, but the doubts about his offensive role are what has him riding the pine in New York. It has to be a team that will run and has enough other guys who can shoot that his lack of a J won’t be a liability.

  72. Brian Cronin

    It has to be a team that will run and has enough other guys who can shoot that his lack of a J won’t be a liability.

    Man, I wish the Knicks had a team like that.

  73. Thomas B.

    New York gets: Anthony, Lawson, Frye, and Nash

    Reserves would be Frye, Williams, Douglas. Somebody get the bomber jackets.

  74. Nick C.

    Brian Cronin: Man, I wish the Knicks had a team like that.  (Quote)

    yeah hahahaha…sometimes these guys make you wonder how it is someone actually pays them.

    speaking of which if I have to listen to Micheal Kay go on and on again on my drive home about how they have to get Carmelo even if they have to gut the team…

  75. Brian Cronin

    I dunno, Nick, I don’t think Hollinger is wrong, I think he’s correct that that type of team should be a good fit for AR.

    And yet…

  76. Caleb

    @95 it’s a cut and paste job from KB! Good points, nonetheless… except the bit about Walsh/D’Antoni only swinging for the fences. With LeBron, yes. In the Melo muddle – I think the know-nothing sportswriter contingent is making a lot of assumptions.

  77. Caleb

    p.s. An overexcited reporter for Business Insider actually reported today that Randolph HAD been traded to the Pacers. Amazingly, he ran with the story even though when he called the Knicks to confirm, they told him, “There’s nothing to report.”

    He’s since apologized...

    Hey, as Randolph trades go, this one isn’t that awful. The pick would probably land in the 10-15 range, and of course would be unprotected so we’d have a shot at something big.

  78. Nick C.

    Brian Cronin: I dunno, Nick, I don’t think Hollinger is wrong, I think he’s correct that that type of team should be a good fit for AR. And yet…  (Quote)

    I thought recent run notwithstanding that’s what the Knicks had and was more or less what SSOL was supposted to be about. That’s why I thought it was odd to say AR needed that type of team.

  79. Brian Cronin

    I thought recent run notwithstanding that’s what the Knicks had and was more or less what SSOL was supposted to be about. That’s why I thought it was odd to say AR needed that type of team.

    It is. Hollinger is therefore basically saying what Caleb has been saying for a long time now – that the Knicks should be a good place for AR, D’Antoni just is choosing to disagree. So if you concede that D’Antoni is never gonna play him, then, sadly enough, the best place for him is a team that is just like the Knicks!

  80. latke

    Caleb — can you really imagine the CBA looking like the “owner’s wet dream”? IMO the current system has been really good for the sport. It rewards teams that build carefully and for the long term. Building through the lottery becomes a lot less alluring if I know that if I get some really good young players, I may not be able to resign them.

    IMHO, the hard cap stuff is just a method of intimidation. Come summer, they’ll work out a reduction of the percentage of revenue that comes to the players, then you’ll see a potpourri of the following:

    increase the luxury tax penalty
    shorten maximum contract lengths
    eliminate the lesser bird rights (baby bird, non-bird) so that you can only go over the cap to pay players that have been under contract for 3+ years.
    turn the midlevel exception into a biannual exception

    Finally, you’ll see something that makes it easier for teams to transition into the new CBA: Older contracts will be grandfathered in and only count against the cap for what they would have been were they signed under the new CBA, so for example Carmelo Anthony might make $19 million next year, about 30% of the current cap. If the new cap is $52 million, 30% of that cap would be $15.2 million, and that would be Anthony’s cap number for next year.

  81. Caleb

    Obviously there are a lot of unknowns about the new CBA.

    I think the owner’s bargaining position is ridiculous, but I am concerned that they seem focused on the wrong things – i.e. David Stern seems to think player movement per se is a problem. And he praises NFL-style parity every chance he gets. That makes me think that limiting player movement is a priority for the owners, and I could see a short-sighted Players Association bargaining that away in exchange for keeping a bigger chunk of the overall cash.

    The NFL is not a good model for the NBA because there are many ways to build a Super Bowl contender, whereas in the NBA you tilt the whole balance with one or two great signings.

    But I hope I’m wrong.

  82. latke

    Caleb: Obviously there are a lot of unknowns about the new CBA.
    I think the owner’s bargaining position is ridiculous, but I am concerned that they seem focused on the wrong things – i.e. David Stern seems to think player movement per se is a problem. And he praises NFL-style parity every chance he gets. That makes me think that limiting player movement is a priority for the owners, and I could see a short-sighted Players Association bargaining that away in exchange for keeping a bigger chunk of the overall cash.
    The NFL is not a good model for the NBA because there are many ways to build a Super Bowl contender, whereas in the NBA you tilt the whole balance with one or two great signings.
    But I hope I’m wrong.

    But wouldn’t the owners do this no matter what? Pick the most extreme position so that you can “make concessions” and still arrive at point that you find completely acceptable (and perhaps preferable).

  83. latke

    BigBlueAL: What do you guys (mainly the advanced stats oriented guys) think of this article??:http://sabermetricresearch.blogspot.com/2011/01/sabermetric-basketball-statistics-are.html

    The rebounding point seems sound to me.

    For scoring efficiency, the logic that if you bring an efficient scorer in, the defense will have to adjust, giving better opportunities to teammates makes sense. However, his data is pretty flawed. I imagine that a large part of the reason that one player’s increase in FG% increases others’ is because some teams suck at defense. Against those teams, the entire team will on average shoot better. The position by position data is interesting though. I would never have expected for shooting guard efficiency to most strongly correlate with teammate efficiency. I would expect center/power forward efficiency to do that — draw the defense to the interior — get open shots from the perimeter.

    The way for him to adjust would be to adjust the FG% according to the avg FG defense that the opposing team plays.

    His point on shot blocking seems silly to me. I imagine that the bulk of blocked shots come on help defense. It doesn’t matter who you’re guarding.

    The last section on correlations between success and previous stats (both advanced and traditional) is definitely a bit of a blow against advanced stats. One thing that might be interesting would be to compare correlations between minutes played across teams. This would give us a sense of which coaches are best at evaluating which players are most important to team success.

  84. KnickInSeattle

    The Knicks roster is full, correct?
    Meaning we’d have to trade or cut someone before we could pick anyone up.

  85. Doug

    The way the Knicks’ offense has been sputtering, I don’t think there’d be much difference on offense with AR on the floor. I can’t remember that many times where all 5 guys got hot at the same time except for games like the first Chicago and the first Phoenix games.

  86. Caleb

    @103 That’s a pretty dense article but looks like a good read.
    I am not a statistician, but the first thing that left me scratching his head – the big test, testing various measures (minutes played, PER, etc.) to try and predict team success. He makes a big deal of it, but to me it looks like the correlations are all very similar – between .805 and .829. I am no statistician, so maybe I don’t understand the analyis – but what does that comparison tell you? Isn’t it a kind of circular logic? Does it say more than: basketball statistics of all kinds are extremely similar from year to year? I’m sure I’m missing something, but what is it?

  87. GHenman

    Is there anyone here who thought the Knicks record would have been better than 22-19 at this point in the season? If so, why? I think most Knick fans would have to be happy with the teams performance so far this year despite the recent slump.

  88. daJudge

    Caleb and the rest—It seems that the article actually demonstrates that high metrics are correlated with the partially subjective decision to give a player more burn. Thus, it seems to me that one conclusion is that the metrics in general actually work. Perhaps all he is saying is that the advanced metrics are no more predictive than more traditional measures. Some other issues raised are interesting concerning the interactive nature of one player’s performance on others and how it varies among different players. I would call this “Field theory”, after you know who. Just how this would play out with Carmello is as crucial as it is elusive IMO.

  89. BigBlueAL

    Read today that D’Antoni was talking about how the offense has gotten away from the P’n’R and that the offense is looking alot like it did when they were 3-8.

    I guess were arent the only ones who have noticed this :-)

  90. Brian Cronin

    Is there anyone here who thought the Knicks record would have been better than 22-19 at this point in the season? If so, why? I think most Knick fans would have to be happy with the teams performance so far this year despite the recent slump.

    Absolutely agree.

    I am not bummed about the Knicks’ season at all.

    I mean, during the game when they play horribly, of course I’m pissed (like when the second unit was in last night and they all seemed to wish to pass the ball until they found the worst shot possible).

    And when I think about losing Gallo and Fields for the right to overpay Carmelo Anthony, I’m not the happiest of campers.

    But in general, I’m quite pleased with the Knicks.

  91. jon abbey

    GHenman: Is there anyone here who thought the Knicks record would have been better than 22-19 at this point in the season?If so, why?I think most Knick fans would have to be happy with the teams performance so far this year despite the recent slump.  

    the trend is disturbing, and some of the players look like they’ve hit walls, Felton most importantly. I think that falling out of the 6 seed spot (where we still somehow have a 5 game lead, thanks in part to the ineptitude of Larry Brown) would make this season a failure on the court, no matter what the expectations were coming into the season. the 6 seed would mean avoiding Boston/Miami and having a better chance of at least winning one playoff game. the last time we did that, Chris Dudley and Larry Johnson were starting (!!!).

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/200005290NYK.html

    winning one of these next two would of course make things seem a lot better, but I’m not holding my breath.

  92. latke

    Off topic, but this sort of blows my mind: I don’t understand how the Blazers continue to be decent. Since Roy sat down, they are 11-6. Now Camby goes down, who IMO was their next best player, and they’re about to convincingly beat the surging Clippers. Nate McMillan is IMO a top 5 coach in the NBA. Every team he’s coached has outdone expectations. Even those crappy sonics teams of the early 00s would consistently win about half their games.

  93. BigBlueAL

    jon abbey:
    the trend is disturbing, and some of the players look like they’ve hit walls, Felton most importantly. I think that falling out of the 6 seed spot (where we still somehow have a 5 game lead, thanks in part to the ineptitude of Larry Brown) would make this season a failure on the court, no matter what the expectations were coming into the season. the 6 seed would mean avoiding Boston/Miami and having a better chance of at least winning one playoff game. the last time we did that, Chris Dudley and Larry Johnson were starting (!!!).
    http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/200005290NYK.htmlwinning one of these next two would of course make things seem a lot better, but I’m not holding my breath.  

    You forgot the Knicks in 2001 were up 2 games to 1 against the Raptors before losing that series in 5 games. The last time the Knicks won a playoff game, Othella Harrington was starting for the Knicks!!!! lol

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/200104290TOR.html

  94. jon abbey

    oh, right, somehow I had in my head we got swept there but I guess it was just the depression of going out in the first round.

  95. Shad0wF0x

    GHenman: Is there anyone here who thought the Knicks record would have been better than 22-19 at this point in the season?If so, why?I think most Knick fans would have to be happy with the teams performance so far this year despite the recent slump.  

    I think my overconfidence in the team began when they started playing well (2010/11/17) to when they recently defeated Portland (2011/01/11). Overall during that timespan, they had a 19-7 record with the losses coming from Atlanta, Boston, Miami x2, Cleveland, Orlando, and the Lakers. Losing to those teams (with the exception of Cleveland) is completely acceptable at this point. I was just confident now that we can beat the teams we should beat (Sac, NJ, Wash etc.), make a few surprises (the Spurs win), and be on the level of the Bulls, Nuggets and Thunder. The 4th quarter increase in defensive effort that I kinda got used to has disappeared for whatever reason. And I guess I’m just overreacting a bit since we lost against sub .500 teams. If they were let’s say, Boston, Dallas, and the New Orleans, it wouldn’t have bothered me as much.

  96. Brian Cronin

    Good lord – a seven-man rotation of Sprewell, Houston, Thomas, Mark Jackson, Harrington, Ward and Glen Rice (with Felton Spencer getting one minute)?

    That is insane!

    Oh, wait a second, this is when Camby missed a game and seemed distracted when he returned because of his sister, right? That actually makes sense, then.

  97. el-beau

    about wednesday’s game and carmelo yellow…
    I get the sense that our boys are nervous. Carmelo chitchat is in the air. I’m going to tell them what I tell my boyfriend: if Carmelo wants to play in NY so badly, he can pay us for the privilege. As for our lineup, let’s keep them all with one possible exception (RF).

    Mr. Felton needs to shape up, skill-wise. He has a great attitude, but is clearly nonplussed. Could someone please remind him that he’s a point guard? No need to take the ball straight to the basket repeatedly without (a) letting any other players touch it or (b) making the shot. Boo hoo.

    My love, Wilson, has become very timid as of late. Is it my affection that’s making him nervous? Doesn’t he know I love him unconditionally? That the love can only grow to greater extremes when he plays up to his potential, demands the ball and makes his shots?

    Landry continues to be the intelligence of the team. He’s always positioned well, active, ready for rebounds and ready to help the team. This week he puts the IQ in “all other NBA teams better qUIt because the NYK are going to put them all to shame”.

    Amar’e. Hmmm. I realize the refs were against you last night and didn’t call anything. However, expecting a call seems to slow you down. Play, man. Get the basket!!! And stop with these ridiculous turnovers. You are too tall and too good to play at the level you brought last night. As a fellow height champion (comparatively measuring in at 5’9 1/2?), I’m disappointed.

    That’s all for this afternoon. I think our boys can win the next two games. Go Wilson. In your honor, my boyfriend is now referred to as “the white Wilson”. oxooxxxo

  98. Thomas B.

    GHenman:

    Is there anyone here who thought the Knicks record would have been better than 22-19 at this point in the season? If so, why? I think most Knick fans would have to be happy with the teams performance so far this year despite the recent slump?

    You make a good point and I was going to ask that this morning. I saved my win loss prediction from the preseason and I had the Knicks at .500 at this point of the year (21-21 counting the Magic game that was postponed) The actual Knicks have won games I would have never expected them to win, but they lost a number of games that I didn’t think they would lose too. So the Knicks arent far from what I thought they would be at the start of the year.

    The problem is that I adjusted my expectations upward when I saw how good this team can play when everything is working the on offense. Now that I’ve seen them beat the Spurs at home and give the Celtics all they could handle, I expect this team to destroy the Cavs and the Kings and the rest of that ilk. So yes the team is better–record wise–than I predicted at this point, but the arent better than they have shown us they can be. We all adjust expectations as we get more information.

  99. d-mar

    For the Knicks to win 44-45 games, which would require them to basically equal or surpass slightly their win total from the 1st half of the season, they can afford the occasional post road trip, letdown stinker (like Sacto) and even crappy performances on the road like we just saw in Houston. What they can’t afford is to follow up a Kings loss with a no defensive effort loss to the Suns at home. As we know, the schedule in the 2nd half is tougher, so they really have to win the winnable games, steal a few when they’re the underdog and go from there. But if they don’t improve their performances at home, we could be looking at a 39-41 win team.

  100. maurice lucas

    Brian Cronin:
    Absolutely agree.I am not bummed about the Knicks’ season at all.I mean, during the game when they play horribly, of course I’m pissed (like when the second unit was in last night and they all seemed to wish to pass the ball until they found the worst shot possible).
    And when I think about losing Gallo and Fields for the right to overpay Carmelo Anthony, I’m not the happiest of campers.But in general, I’m quite pleased with the Knicks.  

    Coming into the season, with the acquisition of Amare, Felton and the expected development of Gallo and Chandler (in a contract year), I expect the Knicks to play 500 ball, at the very least, in the weak East. Maybe even a game or 2 above. After the next game, they will be at 22-21, just about what is expected. Can’t say I am pleased with such a record. I don’t have a good feeling that NYK will be able to hold on to the 6th seed at the end of the season

  101. Thomas B.

    I still think the Knicks will finish the season over .500. I’m sticking with 44-38. The last 19 games of the season are not that bad. There are 2 games against the Celts but I think the final game of the season the Celtics won’t have much to play for, so they may rest the starters. I think the Knicks can go 12-7 over that last 19 and if they get to that point at or near .500 they should finish in the 42-45 win range.

  102. Caleb

    @113 I know he says the study undercuts “sabermetrics” – I’m just not convinced, partly because I can see him making some sweeping conclusions and partly because I don’t understand the math.

    For example, the comparison that aims to evaluate different measures (PER, WP, minutes played, etc.) as a predictor of wins – I think there are some inherent problems. For example, if you look at how minutes were allocated on a certain team, and use that to predict how the team does the next year – what are you really proving? Of course I may be missing a lot of details.

    Dave Berri makes a more technical criticism in dissing the study:

    “Berri and Bradbury (2010) critiqued an alternative approach advocated by Lewin and Rosenbaum (2007). These authors were examining a variety of measures used to evaluate NBA players (Wins Produced, PER, etc.). They begin by regressing a team’s efficiency differential (points scored per possession minus points surrendered per possession) on a team’s PER (or whatever metric was being examined). The result of this regression, plus the regression’s residual (or error term), was then used to evaluate players. This evaluation was then used to predict a team’s efficiency differential for the next season. The results indicated that the models could explain between 75% and 77% of future wins, suggesting that all models were the same. Of course, as any student of econometrics would know, any model plus the error term (as Lewin and Rosenbaum actually noted) would explain 100% of current wins. Appendix A notes that when one does not include the error term in the evaluation of a model, it’s clear Wins Produced does a better job of explaining wins than PERs or NBA Efficiency.”

    Maybe an economist here (Crockett? Crockett?) can explain.

  103. Caleb

    re: the second half…
    Knicks’ opponents to date have a winning percentage of .486. Only six teams have played an easier schedule. So, the second half of the schedule gets tougher. But after 41 games it’s not a mega-difference. Meanwhile, the Knicks have 22 home games in the second half vs. 19 on the road. So I think the schedule is a wash.

    On the whole I think the Knicks have played to form – no one playing way over his head, no huge disappointments. Felton was over his head for a while but at this point he’s right in line with his past #s – slightly better shooting percentages, but that’s no surprise with a better coach, better system and better teammates. (This year he’s shooting .344 on 3-pointers; last year was .385 and career mark is .330… on overall efficiency his TS% is 53.5; last year was 52.5 which was a good jump from his earlier career).

    The Knick’s health has been better than average, so you might expect injuries to play a bigger role in the second half – but at the same time, they have several young players in the rotation who are likely to play better. To me that about evens out.

    I’d say they’re right on target for 44, 45 wins. Barring a big trade or major injury.

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